Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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All Credit to ChartBuddy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

6 digits = fuck you status for many WOers who aren't there yet, and there is a big difference between a $2M fuck you and a $10M fuck you.

$100k/coin and even $1M/coin are unpredictable certainties. Got coin?

You probably meant 7 digits for 2mil, for example...sorry  .
I can't think of any 6 digit number to be a fu situation...a nice chunk of "change", but hardly a fu, even in the heartland and forget about it on the coasts.

[...]

Jay has already explained it -- 6 digits = $100k+/coin. Assuming a 20 BTC stash, this is entry-level spot price f.u. status (whatever the implications of spot price vs. 200 WMA may be). You seem to be describing a situation where a mere couple of coins can achieve this, so then, yes, a 7-digit spot price would be needed.

In any case, I quite like the $2M as the entry-level f.u. status threshold, but I tend to multiply it by about 5, in order to secure it against unforeseeable events that may affect spot price. Basically this is very roughly equivalent to using the 200 WMA (my beloved indicator) as a basis for any calculations/predictions when it comes to spot price mega-pumps that are not likely to affect the 200 WMA value much in the short term. IOW, the 200 WMA acts as a filter, shaving off any spikes (up or down), effectively setting a (quite reliable IMHO) lower bound envelope for spot price (although that envelope has been broken a few times, esp. during the mid-2022 to mid-2023 bear period).

How big must the upcoming pump be, in order for the 200 WMA to reach $100k? Looking at past cases of spot vs. 200 WMA prices during pumps, it seems that the spot/WMA ratio tends to go down with time.

End of 2013: 28x
End of 2017: 16x
End of 2021: 4x
End of 2025: ???x

For the purpose of this exercise, let's SOMA-guess that it's going to be around 3x. This would mean that the spot price at the end of 2025 would be around $300k. So, 20 BTC would be right at the entry-level f.u. status threshold (according to the 200 WMA of $100k), with the added cushion of 3x f.u. status of $6M (based on spot price).

Looking forward to filling the green part of my post...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[DirtyKeyboard]

Psst...  Buddy I made you a pizza, but there might not be enough to share...



...who am I kidding.  This ain't no NFP, everyone can download a copy.   

 

[ChartBuddy]

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[bitcoinPsycho]

Psst...  Buddy I made you a pizza, but there might not be enough to share...




 

...who am I kidding.  This ain't no NFP, everyone can download a copy.  

 

No marbling, take it back.  This is just cheese on toast

[goldkingcoiner]

Psst...  Buddy I made you a pizza, but there might not be enough to share...



...who am I kidding.  This ain't no NFP, everyone can download a copy.   

 

Oh I get it! It's like green and red candles, right? Nice job and guten appetite!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[DirtyKeyboard]

~veggie pizza~

No marbling, take it back.  This is just cheese on toast

I tried one with minor marbling using ham, but the picture did not turn out so well.  

The pizza, though, was dichotomly delicious.  

[BitcoinBunny]

These look like the Back To The Future 2 pizza.
Did ya'll use Hydrate Level 4?

[bitebits]

Wait until the market learns there is corn out there with an inelastic supply.



https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1758469830691172790

[FinePoine0]

10. Seetee Shareholder Letter  

The 180-year old Norwegian company explains why they decided to buy bitcoin and invest in the bitcoin ecosystem to help grow the technology's adoption. Details

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[bitcoinPsycho]

51K in one hour 

[ChartBuddy]

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[philipma1957]

I was gonna sell my coins, but then.

This is the uncensored version.

Thank you.

[Greyhats]

Some bitcoiners bristle at ETFs...not me.
Bought into a couple a few days ago (in Roth)...not taxable, haha.
A path: from some strange swedish bitcoin ETP (Bitcoin XBT tracker One or something like that) and straight into US-based.
An expensive tx (they REALLY fleece you), but it was up about 10X since 2020, so, no biggie.

I grabbed some too. I went with FBTC for the custody diversification. Also tossed it in a Roth IRA. Bitcoin is cool and holding your own is respectable, but long term Bitcoin gains without having to self custody or pay taxes on gains… That’s just too good to avoid for any reason. I’m up 25% already.

I use a roth as part of my emergency fund sources, I restacked the ratio's when the etf's came out, and have some allocated to ibit.

Its not well publicised but you can withdraw your roth contribtions without any penalty/tax so long as its only the contribution amount and not any profit.

Sounds a bit reckless to be using retirement funds as your "emergency funds."

Nah it’s not reckless definitely depends tho on your unique situation, if in maintenance mode it’s not reckless to consider taking out some cash contributions. The profit has compounded so much that it’s inconsequential almost to pull out a a few years worth of contribution.

I can definitely see self directed roths getting killed off there is way too many benefits in the current tax system to be tax efficient. People day trade in them, it’s ridiculous that there is no cap gains!