Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

Dude, seriously, 256 billion new wallets in 2033? That'd be like 25-30 wallets for each person on Earth. To even use the words "conservative" and "diminish" in this context...well I'd love to see what your not so conservative numbers are.

Your semi-autonomous personal information devices each hold some of your coins and use them for stuff like micro-payments to news sites, the purchase of music.  Your fridge automatically reorders the foods you've eaten each month.

Considering this is the absolute wet dream of any bitcoin holder, in what way is it conservative again? Not to mention that, considering not everyone in the entire world will be using bitcoin, it assumes probably closer to 100 wallets per person. How many people do you know with 90 appliances, let alone 90 appliances that could make use of this technology? Maybe your toaster will be reordering bread?

Dude... eh hehehhehehe          Did you see that I already responded to your question about what I meant by conservative>>>>>>>> in the above post>>>>>> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6502505#msg6502505 

No I didn't, but I think the most important consideration here is will your toaster reorder bread? And no wheat! No way I'm spending my hard-earned appliance-bitcoins out of any one of my 300 wallets on that bullshit!

Now, it sounds as if you are arguing merely for the sake of arguing.. b/c you are getting into the weeds about some side tangent comment that was made.  NONE OF US really know any specifics about various future applications and whether they would be feasible or even be developed in whatever bitcoin eco-system that were to evolve - if one even evolves.   So, there are some examples about how there could continue to be bitcion wallets developing beyond the number of people in the world, and even 256 billion would be 25-50 wallets per person (which certainly seems like too much to me, as well, but it is NOT 300 wallets per person alive)..

[JayJuanGee]

at first I bought bitcoin to make me rich, I guess I am a basic bitch.

If you bought your BTC below $100, you may be a rich bitch. 

If you bought your BTC over $1000, then you may merely be a bitchy bitch.

[sonofliberty]

Obligatory dump incoming!

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Obligatory dump incoming!

Indeed. Sudden big dump on BTCe, price down to $428 atm

[mah87]

slowly coming back under 200$

[Krabby]

Damn it, I wanted to 420 blaze it.

[Davyd05]

there's a panic dump

[Walsoraj]

Dump like that is likely by someone with inside info. Expect a bad news article soon.

*edit*

By bad I mean good. And by good I mean bearish. 

[JorgeStolfi]

I was looking at the plot of Plot of the Number of Unique Bitcoin Addresses Used per Day

Is there a thread that discusses the meaning of this plot?

Some curious features that beg for explanation:
* The first two obvious bumps correspond to the Apr/2013 and Oct-Nov/2013 rallies.  The third one seems to correspond to the period from about Mar/07 to about Mar/21 (hard to tell, that "smart plot" is not very helpful). But the volume was not particularly high in that period.
* In general there seems to be little correlation with price apart from the overall increase in both over the last 2 years. 
* There is a strong 7-day periodic component, strongest before the Oct/2013 rally and gradually being replaced by more irregular noise.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

It is really uncanny how we are re-playing exactly same pattern again. I was beginning to think that perhaps this time it will be different. It really feels strange - market should not be that predictable

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

slowly coming back under 200$

  where?

[hyphymikey]

Traders are sheep to the charts. That's the only reason we are going down right now. Nothing has changed and there is no reason to dump, just someone trying to get a jump on a downtrend that may never come. They will just have to buy back at a loss like 99% of traders.

[y3804]

Traders are sheep to the charts. That's the only reason we are going down right now. Nothing has changed and there is no reason to dump, just someone trying to get a jump on a downtrend that may never come. They will just have to buy back at a loss like 99% of traders.

lol @ bolded part

[p0peji]

Go ahead guys CCMF trade this at your peril. I think I'll sit out.

It is looking more and more like in March indeed.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

That wasn't a real dump. What we are seeing is simply an exhaustion of buyers.

No one wants to buy so we are starting to make lower highs. We might have one or two more pushups ahead the next handful of days - maybe to 470 or 480.

But the problem is when the buyers run out, then the market just waits for the next set of China news to dump all to hell.

[ShroomsKit]

Traders are sheep to the charts. That's the only reason we are going down right now. Nothing has changed and there is no reason to dump, just someone trying to get a jump on a downtrend that may never come. They will just have to buy back at a loss like 99% of traders.

lol @ bolded part

Sounds about right. I doubt that more than 5% of the people trading make money. Probably way less.
It's like a casino. You see 100's of people who look like they know what they are doing but only a few go home with profit.
The thing is they just go back over and over again. Thinking this time they will make money but they just keep losing. The one time they win some they instantly forget that they lost the last 10 times. So they go on and lose whatever little profit they had again.
Watching these pumps and dumps every day i noticed it's exactly the same. Just a lot of losers. The result of being stupid. And i kinda enjoy watching it. I don't feel sorry for them. I've been there, i lost, and got the hint.

The whales who lead the pump and dumps make money. The small guys trying to follow it with 10 coins end up losing them eventually. Money makes money. No money means you need to start working. Not gambling.

[windjc]

If Houbi breaks down below 2750 and that begins to act as resistance, then things will start to get real bearish, imo.

[y3804]

If Houbi breaks down below 2750 and that begins to act as resistance, then things will start to get real bearish, imo.

Won't happen until Monday.. dat dump on BTC-E, though

[billyjoeallen]

Go ahead guys CCMF trade this at your peril. I think I'll sit out.

It is looking more and more like in March indeed.

Even the volume is similar. I wonder if the Chinese have noticed this.