Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

Thanks for this.

I have only good words to say about Proton. I've been using their secure (and free) webmail service without problems. It's the cleanest and most security-oriented webmail service I've found. OTOH, in most free services, the product is YOU, but I'd like to think Proton is an exception.

Yeah. I mostly trust them.  But of course there are rumors.  Whatever... we do the best we can.  And their stuff is as good as google's but with (possibly) less spying.

It is interesting... most people do not realize what we have lost as email has been 100% captured.  The WWW started out captured basically... but email?  It was a cypherpunk protocol really.  Just needed the users to encrypt their data.

[...]

But this webwallet seems legit at a glance, and correctly implemented... And this is what Proton promises us they do (trust us!).  So it is the original intent right?  Hopefully.  I actually upgraded to a paid plan ENTIRELY to support them, and so I had more space (so not entirely out of ideals?).  They also have storage thing (like google drive) that is supposed to be similarly secure.  I use that too...

I've been thinking about subscribing to a Proton paid plan, but there's an important issue: do they accept anonymous subscriptions (e.g., payment in cash sent to a physical address, or in Monero)? If not, then I simply cannot pay them, because paying them would reveal my identity, thus negating the very purpose of using Proton.

Sweden-based Mullvad VPN offers anonymous payments, and does this very efficiently. You just put cash in an envelope and post it anonymously to a physical address in Sweden, or pay with Monero (or Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is not really anonymous). There's no need to give an email address. Your account is a 16-digit, randomly generated number. That's all there is to it. Clean, simple, anonymous. As all such services should be. I urge everyone to try their service.

Yup.  Mullvad is really legit.  I pay them with Monero.  Proton DOES accept BTC for payment.  So you can be as anonymous as your practices (which is full of holes usually).  I do it that way.  And I use Aqua wallet... that way I can go lightning->liquid->BTC->Proton. I can throw a Monero step in there too if I would like... and you will NEVER know.

OK I feel a soapbox moment coming on...  JJG is gonna batslap me.  But some batslaps are worth it.

Bitcoin is the deal.  We all know that.  But privacy/fungability is a MAJOR MAJOR issue.  And the religious maxi types will just mock/block you if you mention that not only is it a problem but it is STILL a problem in 2025!!!  But MONERO is really the only solution.  Still.  STILL.

I don't buy shit off the darknet markets.  But if I did.  I WOULD NOT USE BTC IN ANY FORM.  Monero ONLY in that case.  The point is... it is not good enough to risk that sort of security scenario.  So.. it is NOT GOOD ENOUGH.  Yet.

Bitcoin needs to implement Monero level privacy on it's payment layers.  The satanic information gobbling corporate layers are doing GREAT with their ETFs. (This is why I wrote here about ETFs being a double edged sword.)  And there will be other info gobbling banks coming along ASAP I am sure.  And great!  Most people are probably OK with their info being... ... gobbled.

Pant... pant...  ok I am a little too worked up.

Here's the thing...

TIME is valuable. (we only have so much)
EFFORT is valuable.  (we can only DO so much)
PRIVACY is valuable. (If you can see everything I do then it changes what I can do, and how I can do it.)

Bitcoin OWNS the first two.

WE HAVE to take the third one.  And we have to take it above the base layer.

I wish I was a developer...   But... I am retarded.




That said... 

Aqua wallet gets us much of the way there:
https://aqua.net/

welcome to the club, brother!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

morning wo.

has the musky trumpeter started annexation of Canada yet?

answer no.

but he got a win on his federal buyout program so the dismantling of the US federal government has begun.

As a veteran I am not so sure I fought for his ideas of how a gernement should be run.

Well at least I am 68 and had a good 39 year marriage own a home debt free. Have savings and decent health insurance.

From my viewpoint the USA government served me pretty well other than dec 2019 to 2022 when covid hit.

And that covers both his and bidens admin.

So far he has shaken up the crypto markets a lot. and been neutral to the stock markets

BTC down 109k to 96k         Jan 20 to Feb 13

Dow Jones  43.4k to 44.3k    Jan 20 to Feb 13
Nasdaq 19.6k to  19.6k        Jan 20 to Feb 13
S&P     5.99k to    6.05k        Jan 20 to Feb 13


Yeah that's right he has acted like a huge crypto cooler

4real?? Wow... It's beyond me how you just cut out the pump from 60k to 100k, when Trump won the election...

I think that's probably the greatest pump ever caused by a president. We almost doubled in price and are now consolidating in a new range  ....still you choose to complain about a 12% fluctuation after that...

How long are you in Bitcoin? When was the last time the price doubled without consolidation or small corrections after that?

... I don't wanna guard Trump in any ways, but saying he is bad for Bitcoin's price  is so blatantly untrue that I wonder who you wanna deceive, if not yourself! ...Trump derangement syndrome(?)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

I don't personally trust the aqua block chain because apart from the charge's privacy issues they are still behind in the market and needs to improve on their services many people are quiet skeptical about their block chain because to me they have not been convincing looking at their website and going through what is there they still have a improve on their services so they can can attract more to their user base https://aqua.network/

That is really distracting, since we were talking about bitcoin, and then you switched over to a shitcoin.

[edited out]

But one thing, in short... I do not think bitcoin is broken in the slightest ( And I am not and never have been a big blocker)  Similarly, to payments and scaling, privacy will need to be solved at a higher layer than the base layer, which is well designed.

It might not be a BIG deal, and sure my memory might be is likely flawed in a variety of ways to the extent that I might ready, willing and able to search through old posts discussing the parameters of various bitcoin-related battles (challenges) over past times.

I probably don't even really disagree with you very much about privacy issues, including that there are needs to both be able to transact privately but also not having to fear various selective enforcement gotchas later down the road by entities wanting to track and control us..but also there are personal safety concerns with these kinds of matters too when we should be able to interact with each other directly and not worrying about how many hops back someone might see in terms of if they believe we are rich or not and if they tell their thug friend, who may well be acting on incomplete information, but still dangerous.. and maybe some additional rationale that if more folks are transacting with bitcoin, then no one can necessarily presume how many BTC that others might or might not have in various associated bitcoin addresses.

....
Yeah that's right he has acted like a huge crypto cooler

4real?? Wow... It's beyond me how you just cut out the pump from 60k to 100k, when Trump won the election...

I think that's probably the greatest pump ever caused by a president. We almost doubled in price and are now consolidating in a new range  ....still you choose to complain about a 12% fluctuation after that...
How long are you in Bitcoin? When was the last time the price doubled without consolidation or small corrections after that?

... I don't wanna guard Trump in any ways, but saying he is bad for Bitcoin's price  is so blatantly untrue that I wonder who you wanna deceive, if not yourself! ...Trump derangement syndrome(?)

Surely one of the problems was using the term crypto, as if such term means anything... and another problem comes from Philip making large proclamations based on short-term and/or out of context data, which what else is  new?

The whole matter is complicated because surely Trump went into office with quite a few moves (grudges to try to iron out - that might even coincide with some of Elon's supposed grudges, but why should Elon have grudges?) that likely went beyond what quite a few folks were expecting, and so having repercussions in all kinds of directions that might take a while to sort out, especially considering that we are right in the midst of various kinds of blow-ups and even questions about the extent to which some of the matters might end up rising to the level of constitutional crises, and surely not everyone is surprised if there are goals to bring constitutional crises, so markets are not likely going to react in expected ways, even though we might try to make some reasonable explanations about what is going on in various markets.. that might even include that the extent to which there was a Trump pump, then the pump might not be able to continue once it had gone on for a while without some amount of pause and/or correction..including the variety of things going on and difficult to read while we (and the market)  are in the midst of them. 

Also, hopefully, none (or only few) of us are so deluded into thinking that politicians are able to control bitcoin in any kind of meaningful way - especially on a longer timeline..but surely we are likely going to have instances that are attributed to some short-term happenings.. and the BTC price is moved on the margins about some of the various short-term happenings. 

For sure, over the years, we have had bitcoiners complaining about bitcoin prices being way too manipulate to the downside (suppressed for extended periods) and/or complaining that our UPpity bitcoin price trajectory had been irreversibly damaged by some events in the space that contributed to abilities to suppress BTC prices for extended periods of time, which we know that there have been quite a few outrageous past bitcoin-related events contributing to downity BTC prices, and such outrageous events are likely not going to stop in relation to bitcoin, whether the Trump twat is contributing to them or not, and whether the BTC price ends up being able to go up or down within such macro-events that might not exactly be known in advance.. and surely a lot of markets (most likely bitcoin too) are not tending to want to go up when there are a lot of uncertainties.

[philipma1957]

morning wo.

has the musky trumpeter started annexation of Canada yet?

answer no.

but he got a win on his federal buyout program so the dismantling of the US federal government has begun.

As a veteran I am not so sure I fought for his ideas of how a gernement should be run.

Well at least I am 68 and had a good 39 year marriage own a home debt free. Have savings and decent health insurance.

From my viewpoint the USA government served me pretty well other than dec 2019 to 2022 when covid hit.

And that covers both his and bidens admin.

So far he has shaken up the crypto markets a lot. and been neutral to the stock markets

BTC down 109k to 96k         Jan 20 to Feb 13

Dow Jones  43.4k to 44.3k    Jan 20 to Feb 13
Nasdaq 19.6k to  19.6k        Jan 20 to Feb 13
S&P     5.99k to    6.05k        Jan 20 to Feb 13


Yeah that's right he has acted like a huge crypto cooler

4real?? Wow... It's beyond me how you just cut out the pump from 60k to 100k, when Trump won the election...

I think that's probably the greatest pump ever caused by a president. We almost doubled in price and are now consolidating in a new range  ....still you choose to complain about a 12% fluctuation after that...

How long are you in Bitcoin? When was the last time the price doubled without consolidation or small corrections after that?

... I don't wanna guard Trump in any ways, but saying he is bad for Bitcoin's price  is so blatantly untrue that I wonder who you wanna deceive, if not yourself! ...Trump derangement syndrome(?)

Nope you are simply refusing to see that Joe Biden remains king and trump is a loser

and as of right now Biden 109k Trump 95.5k

loser = trump

btc is down 12% from Biden's ath of 109

gold is up over 10%

So far Trump is much like his Mar Largo Toilet bowl very solid gold.


but you need to understand the real beauty is dca like jjg and hodl till trump leaves btc will then whale away


So we have about 1400 days to add btc.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

to further this Trumps job will be crypto cooler letting weak hands panic and dump to whales.

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

We will simply stay in the 90-110 track for a very long time. more than most can imagine.

So be like JJG and dca

[d_eddie]

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

This is possible.

We will simply stay in the 90-110 track for a very long time. more than most can imagine.

This is unlikely.

So be like JJG and dca

By keeping at it, we may even exceed the 0.63 threshold.

[OsaiEmma]

to further this Trumps job will be crypto cooler letting weak hands panic and dump to whales.

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

We will simply stay in the 90-110 track for a very long time. more than most can imagine.

So be like JJG and dca

When you say you don't see the next 4 years cycle, what exactly do you mean, cause the only 4 years cycle in BTC I know of is the BTC halving in which the reward for mining BTC is halved resulting to BTC scarcity, so yeah the cycle is happening whether we like it or not, it's hard coded

[xzy887]

Old system:

You earn. They tax.

You save. They inflate.

You invest. They rig.

New system:

You stack Bitcoin.

They can’t touch it.

https://x.com/Saylorsatsire/status/1889813908032201170?t=GgW9ZbdnuvkVH-10ILmESw&s=19

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

[edited out]

@WatChe   - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve?  including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing?  Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not?  Maybe I should try to write it out?

Here it is:

The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.

If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.

Agree or not?

to further this Trumps job will be crypto cooler letting weak hands panic and dump to whales.

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

We will simply stay in the 90-110 track for a very long time. more than most can imagine.

So be like JJG and dca

Oh gosh...  

You are getting into outrageous territories, again... bettable territories.. but I am still trying to clarify my earlier bet with WatChe, so why you gotta raise more proclamations that are so out there that they really become bettable.

Maybe a simple question... what number should we use?  Maybe your chosen number of $110k?   (on Bitstamp, of course, you dweeb).

You might have been sharing notes with Gachapin in regards to your "very long time"?

Do you expect $110k to not be breached by:

1) February 2025?

2) March  2025?

3) April  2025?

4) May 2025?

5) June 2025?

6) July 2025?

7) August 2025?

8 ) September 2025?

9) October 2025?

10) November 2025?

11) December 2025?


Now that I listed all of the remaining months of the year, it looks a bit ridiculous to list all of the months, but just considering that we could end up returning to UPpity at any time, especially since we really have not broken down yet.. such as breaking below $85k.. and then if a breaking  below $85k happens, then maybe there might be some reasonable expectation of difficulties getting back up.. especially if we get a daily candle or two closing below $85k...  I have my doubts about the likelihood of that, and even from my perspective, $90k is not low enough to really be of concern in regards to the depth of our current "correction status"... at least from the perspective of this here cat.

I would expect 2025 to either be the end of this cycle or close to the end of this cycle, but if we don't get an UPpity or some kind of a blow off top, then the cycle could get disrupted and/or delayed until 2026 or some other screwed up timeline (which you seem to already be suggesting to be in the cards), and that does not seem likely to be presumptively considering the end of the cycle (we have had those errors so many times in the past with calls of the end of cycles, and  here we are, more or less within expectations), or even a good idea for you to be prematurely (quite prematurely) betting against the cycle (even though surely the cycle is not guaranteed as LFC frequently likes to seem to proclaim... hahahahaha.... and OsaiEmma also just proclaimed a similar thing).  

There's probably something bettable in your seeming over assertion of the end of the cycle and your other inferences of getting stuck below $110k, depending on how extreme you want to get with specifying your "very long time," and you already proclaimed the end of the cycle, which shows the level of your getting into unsubstantiatable wannabe sorcerer status.. like you are never learning lessons from your results in your historically making these kinds of proclamations.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

This is possible.

We will simply stay in the 90-110 track for a very long time. more than most can imagine.

This is unlikely.

So be like JJG and dca

By keeping at it, we may even exceed the 0.63 threshold.

imaginary...but it's OK, I get it  

to further this Trumps job will be crypto cooler letting weak hands panic and dump to whales.

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

We will simply stay in the 90-110 track for a very long time. more than most can imagine.

So be like JJG and dca

The funny thing is, it is actually happening right on the schedule so far.
I don't believe in a very long time at 90-110K.
I count a very long the time period of more than a year.
If you have said 70K90K-1110K, that would be, indeed, a long time  
... a reluctant prediction, albeit i don't see 90K as a sacrosant level...i would agree more if you put 70K as the lower bracket
.

[WatChe]

@WatChe   - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve?  including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing?  Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not?  Maybe I should try to write it out?

Here it is:

The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.

If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.

Agree or not?

Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  

[JayJuanGee]

@WatChe   - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve?  including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing?  Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not?  Maybe I should try to write it out?

Here it is:

The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.

If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.

Agree or not?

Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  

After going back and forth between us, I doubt that we would disagree about term interpretations, but I did not get @hissleness to agree in advance to his role...  so hopefully, he would be willing to resolve any dispute in regards to the terms of the bet, if any disagreements were to arise.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

China officialy owns 0 BTC.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Trump speaking on tariffs right now, nothing too bad at the moment. Market doesn’t seem to be too bothered so far.

Maybe the bottom is in and we’re ready for new all time highs, just maybe.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com