Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hisslyness]

@WatChe   - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve?  including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing?  Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not?  Maybe I should try to write it out?

Here it is:

The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.

If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness hisslyness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.

Agree or not?

Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  

After going back and forth between us, I doubt that we would disagree about term interpretations, but I did not get @hissleness @hisslyness to agree in advance to his role...  so hopefully, he would be willing to resolve any dispute in regards to the terms of the bet, if any disagreements were to arise.

I somehow inadvertently inserted myself into this wager, out of frustration, mostly... However, i am more than happy to be the third adjudicator in this and also act as a third reminder of such wager! Rules are crystal clear, that i am sure i will not be needed.

Good Luck to you both!

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

There are still various tactics that can cause plausible deniability in regards to coins, and sure depending on who any of us might be wanting to be private from....   There is a lot of power to be able to directly transact with folks, and if we are drawing from wallets that might ONLY have as much as the transaction or maybe reasonable amounts higher than the transaction, then maybe no one would be able to figure out exactly how many hops back they might have to go to figure out if we might have larger stashes, and yeah we  could end up making mistakes if someone is going back and looking at from where those coins had come.  But yeah, if we get a lot more people transacting with bitcoin then that could also help to have the transactions to be more common... but we still might not want to spend from a  2 BTC wallet in order to buy $100 worth of something, but instead use our wallet that has 0.00634582 BTC.. and yeah maybe in some places we might want to use even a smaller wallet...  but yeah, maybe $100 or less might be better done on lightning network to the extent anyone is set up with that ability..and practicing, too.

[...]

What I do is keep a very small amount of BTC (currently, around 0.6 BTC) in an exchange, so whenever I need to spend/send some small amount (say, $100), I just do it directly on the exchange (either convert to fiat and withdraw to my bank, or withdraw the 0.001 BTC to my phone's hot wallet, and from there to the intended recipient). Any trace done on such transaction would point to my hot wallet and then to the exchange's hot wallet (used for daily customers' withdrawals), and not linking in any way to my cold wallet. The exchange is effectively mixing my 0.6 BTC and isolating the two wallets, so the recipient wouldn't be able to link to one via the other. Not talking about coffee purchases. I guess Lightning could be used for these, but, believe it or not, I haven't used it yet for anything. I don't even know how it's done in practice (Lightning wallet app?), but I'd like to get into it. The thing is, we (still) live in a fiat world, so buying coffee with fiat makes more sense, as things currently stand at least.

An obvious question could arise from the above: what's the point of converting to $100 of fiat from the 0.6 BTC stored in the exchange, instead of simply using $100 from my fiat bank account? Well, not all things we do make logical sense, and sometimes we may need to make use of our coins for some illogical, psychological reason. For example (I've probably mentioned this before), the current fiat value of my above mentioned 0.6 BTC exceeds my total fiat investment value used to buy my entire BTC stash over the years. My plan is to use that 0.6 BTC to slowly withdraw my entire fiat investment amount. The funny thing is that, during the Q4 2024 rise to $100k, I was seeing the value of my 0.6 BTC getting higher while I was actually withdrawing from it... Something like a never-ending money generator! Is this what our Bitcoin stash has become? A never-ending money generator? Was Saylor's comment to Laura really true? Are we really getting richer while we sleep? I still find it too good to be true (but it really seems to be!).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  

After going back and forth between us, I doubt that we would disagree about term interpretations, but I did not get @hissleness to agree in advance to his role...  so hopefully, he would be willing to resolve any dispute in regards to the terms of the bet, if any disagreements were to arise.

@hissleness role will be to act like a third umpire in Cricket (or VAR in football). Third umpire is available to resolve disputes which on field umpires can't resolve. Third umpire has better visibility of the disputes and can give best decisions which are also final.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Leahized]

Roses are red,
Crypto's a trip.
I fell for you hard

Don't you dare dip!
You're my moonshot,
My charts delight.

When others sleep,
You took flight.
So,Happy Valentine's

I am holding tight,
To you, my Btc Hodl
To the moon and out of sight.

#4 haiku in valentine

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

@WatChe   - Should I be speculating that we have resolved all of our bet terms and that we don't really have any ambiguities to resolve?  including that we may well be choosing between transacting on lightning network in the event that Bitcoin onchain fees might not be reasonable at the time that our bet ends up closing?  Do we need to write the terms of our bet in one little blob and then say we agree or not?  Maybe I should try to write it out?

Here it is:

The bet would close out in WatChe's favor (with JJG paying WatChe 0.00003 BTC / 3,000 satoshis) on two possible conditions: 1) the BTC price goes above $333,333 on Bitstamp or 2) the time goes beyond 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026, and the BTC price had not gone below $90k on Bitstamp.

The bet would close in JJG's favor (with WatChe paying JJG 0.0003 BTC / 30,000 satoshis ) if the BTC price touches any price below $90,000 on Bitstamp before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026.

Once the bet closes, the winning person will send the losing person a bitcoin address and/or a lightning network address that is reasonably feasible for the losing person to be able to send the amount of bitcoin (satoshis) to resolve the payment of the bet in a reasonably timely manner and to be able to transact in mutually agreeable ways that facilitates the receiving of the above mentioned quantity of satoshis to the winning person accounting for reasonable fees and also accounting for ability of the winner to be able to reasonably use the amount received (without it being dust).. which given the relatively small bet size, likely means that the lightning network would be most likely to be feasible way of transacting the bet.

If for some reason JJG & WatChe disagree about the resolution of the bet (such as in who's favor the bet is resolved, or if the bet has closed), or about the resolution of the means of payment for the bet, then hissleness hisslyness willl be the third vote that would be used to resolve any such dispute.

Agree or not?

Thanks JJG for taking the pain of writing down the terms and conditions .

I fully AGREE with terms you mentioned.  

After going back and forth between us, I doubt that we would disagree about term interpretations, but I did not get @hissleness @hisslyness to agree in advance to his role...  so hopefully, he would be willing to resolve any dispute in regards to the terms of the bet, if any disagreements were to arise.

I somehow inadvertently inserted myself into this wager, out of frustration, mostly... However, i am more than happy to be the third adjudicator in this and also act as a third reminder of such wager! Rules are crystal clear, that i am sure i will not be needed.

Good Luck to you both!

quoted for reference

good luck and thanks hisslyness

[AlcoHoDL]

[... non-haikus ...]

Wikipedia - Haiku

[gallianooo]

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

This is possible.

I’ll believe it when I see it. As much as we try to explain the day to day movements in the market by human behavior and influence, when you zoom out Bitcoin doesn’t care about any of it. I don’t think this cycle will be any different. I suspect we’ll top late this year as expected and crash down to cycle lows in early 2028.

“4-year cycle. Everybody knows the rules.”

- Dave Portnoy (*if he reviewed Bitcoin instead of pizza)

Why the low in 2028? If you are convinced that the 4years cycle will repeat, then the bottom of BTC is approximately 1 year after the 'final' ATH, so approximately at the end of 2026 in that example...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

This is possible.

I’ll believe it when I see it. As much as we try to explain the day to day movements in the market by human behavior and influence, when you zoom out Bitcoin doesn’t care about any of it. I don’t think this cycle will be any different. I suspect we’ll top late this year as expected and crash down to cycle lows in early 2028.

“4-year cycle. Everybody knows the rules.”

- Dave Portnoy (*if he reviewed Bitcoin instead of pizza)

Why the low in 2028? If you are convinced that the 4years cycle will repeat, then the bottom of BTC is approximately 1 year after the 'final' ATH, so approximately at the end of 2026 in that example...

Yes, that's how I expect it:

Cycle high @ Q4 2025
Cycle low @ Q4 2026

[philipma1957]

I do not see the normal 4 year cycle happening this time at all.

This is possible.

I’ll believe it when I see it. As much as we try to explain the day to day movements in the market by human behavior and influence, when you zoom out Bitcoin doesn’t care about any of it. I don’t think this cycle will be any different. I suspect we’ll top late this year as expected and crash down to cycle lows in early 2028.

“4-year cycle. Everybody knows the rules.”

- Dave Portnoy (*if he reviewed Bitcoin instead of pizza)

Why the low in 2028? If you are convinced that the 4years cycle will repeat, then the bottom of BTC is approximately 1 year after the 'final' ATH, so approximately at the end of 2026 in that example...

Yes, that's how I expect it:

Cycle high @ Q4 2025
Cycle low @ Q4 2026

I think the cycle breaks this year.

At least the 4 year concept.

We did new ath before the 1/2 ing
We cracked 100k way early last dec

And we may have witnessed the ath on January 20 a few hours before the musky trumpeter was signed in

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

I am not deeply enough educated to challenge anything that you are saying... except to witness that you are saying that you love that other girl more than this girl.  You did not tell me whether you listened to the Super Testnet interview that I had provided or to criticize any of his claims.

So that is an overly simplistic representation of my position.

I do not really pit one girl against the other.  Too black and white.  And instead of two girls what I see is two tools, that though they work very similarly have a divergence at such a fundamental level that they are not the same at all.

Monero is arguably NOT a good store of value because of the issue of auditability.  You will hear proponents argue convoluted pretzel logic about how it IS auditable, but the reality is if there WERE an inflation exploit it would be VERY hard to know this.

I am struggling to think of a better analogy than two girls.  It would be better to think of Bitcoin as a tank, and Monero as a 150cc scooter.  Both means of transportation but built for very different purposes.  I would not go to war on my scooter, nor would I drive my tank to the grocery store.  But this analogy is quite flawed as well.

AND in the end I believe Bitcoin will (actually MUST) be traded on layers above the base chain, and eventually a layer will be created that inherits ALL of Monero's privacy advantages at least, and retains enough sovereignty to be safe to store a little value on that layer.  Liquid and Fedimints are inching in the right direction.

Until then though... if you really want the best privacy guarantees...  well you know the rest... poor dead horse.

I have not listened to that interview yet, but will if I find time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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