I am still willing to bet Phil or anyone else with 50/50 odds that the top is not yet in...
I don’t want to bet on it but would like to say I am fully on your side here and hope you’re right
Based on that response, I consider that you might be willing (potentially) to take my side of the bet rather than the opposite side of the bet? And, yeah, I am trying to entice any folks who are either cocky about the downside or bearish on the upside (philip or otherwise), and I might even be willing to make some kind of bet regarding bottoms that I would proclaim will not play out too.... such as if guys are expecting BTC prices to get within 25% of the 200-WMA prior to mid-to-late 2025 (which is getting close to $57k right now)..
And sure, I am not even with the greatest confidence of whatever might be my bets, since for example, if BTC prices were to get within 25% of the 200-WMA, I might start to get worried that the bull market has chances of being over.. absent a mere spike down to within 25% of the 200-WMA that is something like the March 2020 downity spike... and yeah what are the chances that Trump or whoever are playing the various seeming economic games of chicken might end up going overboard in regards to some short-term panic events (are those also called liquidity events?).
But yeah, if in recent times, you had already been having thoughts of taking a bit off of the table, you likely have been feeling some regrets in terms of not having had taken some profits so far in this cycle on the way up. ..which of course, I have frequently suggested that to be a better practice, even though surely you also have your "reasons" for your own ways of going about bitcoin portfolio management matters.
Surely, I feel that I don't tend to put myself in such feelings of regret about either failure of the BTC price to go up or that the BTC price keeps going down (It is not always clear about where we are at, either), even though I still have emotions about the ups and downs that end up playing out, especially during some of the extreme happenings, yet the consolidations tend to help me to re-establish emotional bearings.
I continue to believe that I have more bitcoin than I need, so that can be part of my own perception of my situation (whether it is actually true or not), so my sense is that if I shave some cash off of my BTC stash along the way up, then I feel sufficiently protected for the downside, if any downside ends up playing out.. ..which frequently it does end up happening at some point and from time time (perhaps like now?) even more than we would have had expected.
But yeah, I surely am not picking up larger stashes of bitcoin based on BTC price swings or any sales and rebuys of BTC that I make along the way and within the waves that we can never really know when our BTC price dynamics (momentum) will change directions, even though with the passage of time my BTC stash continues to appreciate in value (and my cash holdings also go up at a somewhat more gradual rate that I consider to be within my own current standard of living, and surely I continue to have the problem of wanting to be able to figure out ways to spend more.. but I also tend to be a bit of a frugal person too.. how else did I get to my current situation?), and perhaps my BTC stash size does not shrink as the BTC price goes up as much as it otherwise might have had shrunk if I had not attempted to take the kinds of attempts at price-blind precautions that I try to ongoingly employ. ..so in otherwords, I have a very similar BTC stash size as I had in late 2017, even though we had various ups and downs along the way, and surely I am thinking that I have more cash too.. .. but I might have to go look back at it, since surely late 2017 was a greatly volatile period, even though right now we are seemingly less volatile, but at the same time we are around a bit more than
4.3x higher in terms of our current spot price as compared with late 2017 (using December 17, 2017 as the top for that cycle), and at the same time about 37x higher in terms of our 200-WMA valuations.Also, in regards to my most recent proposed bet, all I am saying is that I have slightly greater than 50/50 odds that I would win such bet.
I would suggest that my level of confidence is not really high, but my level of confidence is high enough that I would be able to take the upside of any such bet in terms of formulating whether the ATH is yet "in" for this cycle.. so maybe giving the timeline for any such bet to be until late 2025 or early 2026 to play out...
I believe that there would be some fun in regards to taking any such bet for anyone wanting to proclaim that the top is not "in", and surely more fun to win such bet rather than to lose it, yet even with slightly greater than 50/50 odds it is not like there would be surprises if the outcome of the bet ended up not playing out to the upside.
We can never really know with dee cornz...even though so many of us are quite stacked in preparation for UP in regards to our ongoing anticipation that the BTC price is going to continue to trajectory upwardly, even if the short term remains less clear, including extremes that could play out and including short-term irrationalities that frequently play out. . and the short-term irrationalities to the downside (or suppression of the BTC price) seem to contribute to a lot of frustrations (how else could coins be shaken (or shook) from trees?) until those short-term irrationalities resolve themselves.
[edited out]
LFC_Bitcoin
Diamond Hands
For sure there is something off about LFC's use of the term "Diamond hands" to refer to himself, and sure it could be that there is no one "true Diamond Hand" bitcoiner since we are all subjected to a variety of our personal conditions, including how we set ourselves up into bitcoin, and if we were betting no more than we can afford to lose.
So it seems that sometimes guys fall out of touch with their own cashflow management an their BTC portfolio management, which could be that they devolve into some kind of gambling rather than investing, and many guys here likely realize that I am not even opposed to ideas of selling some BTC as the price goes up in order to help each of us to endure during downward BTC volatility times.
One thing that is likely the most guaranteed about bitcoin is its continuing to be volatile and at the same time our inabilities to have high levels of confidence regarding the direction of such near inevitable volatility.
In order to have "Diamond Hands," each of us likely has to attempt to prepare to the best of our ability for likely ongoing inevitable BTC price volatility that goes in both directions. Our preparations are financial and psychological, and frequently I have proclaimed that the psychological preparations follow from the financial preparations, so if we put financial systems in place to prepare for the volatility, then our psychology should become stronger through those kinds of financial preparations.
Surely if we are early in our bitcoin journey we are likely buying no matter the price and we might even specifically hold some extra cash on the side for buying dips.
At some point, we might get to a point where we don't really want to put more cash into bitcoin because we largely feel that we have enough bitcoin, yet we still might not quite be at the level of wanting to sell any bitcoin. So, we might largely stop buying bitcoin regularly even though we might add more bitcoin to our stashes during greater dips.
At a later point, we might start to sell bitcoin on a regular basis and as the BTC price goes up, yet we still might hesitate (or to lessen the quantity) to sell during BTC price dips.
Yep, there are variations of these statuses, and each of the statuses can contain frustrations with BTC price dynamics..
There could be times that we are confused about our status that contributes to more frustration, yet I still am going to proclaim that we are likely going to have better psychology and even better abilities to pretend ourselves as "Diamond Hands" if we figure out how to put our financial practices in such a place that helps our psychology so that in almost all circumstances, we end up being sufficiently/adequately prepared for either BTC price direction, even extremes in regards to price movement and the amount of time that it takes for whichever of the BTC price directions to play out.
I woke up, saw the price heading down fucking again so seriously considered mindrusting 5% - 10% of my stack.
[...]
Thanks! I'm with you, LFC_Bitcoin. Not selling.
Also, my wife won't let meYou have a good wife, congrats.
Most women in my life wanted to sell.
They cant sell what they don't know.
Exactly. Such matters should always be handled on a need-to-know basis. And they don't need to know.
Your response is even more chauvinistic than the one that I was going to make.
Of course, there are exceptions to any rule, yet I was planning to say (before I decided not to, and the you, AlcoHoDL, lured me back into my "bad thinking") that mostly, women are too busy thinking about how many purses and/or perfumes that they can buy and/or how many tea party dates that they can go on with their lady friends, when they cash out of their 80% "profits," that they lose track of the BIG delayed gratification picture.
There are some guys like that too.... and those guys frequently get sucked into losing their money or taking measly and insignificant claims at "profits" through their shitcoin involvement.
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