Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

At some point we wont need the Chinese anymore... I hope it will be soon...

It will happen abruptly at a time that is unpredicable, by nature, and the bears with shoot themselves in the foot when it does.

[Mythul]

Finally bears are getting tired of waiting and are thinking this is their last chance to get BTC under $500.

[TERA]

Finally bears are getting tired of waiting and are thinking this is their last chance to get BTC under $500.

Correct. This is now a 'nervous bear rally' - similar to about 20 in the past few months.

[dreamspark]

Last chance to get bitcoins under 1500$.

I like this one

Can anyone remember the link to the collection on train pics? Been looking for it for ages now but havent needed it much the last few months. 

[freebit13]

Last chance to get bitcoins under 1500$.

I like this one

Can anyone remember the link to the collection on train pics? Been looking for it for ages now but havent needed it much the last few months. 

Only problem is... that train is obviously going nowhere...

[p0peji]

Great! We have a small rally and (Chess)nut is back 

[Bronstad]

just in from reddit:
Chill out, we're exactly where we're supposed to be v2 - Chart based on Bitstamp price up to today (This chart holds even better).
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/24xtjt/chill_out_were_exactly_where_were_supposed_to_be/

Ughhh, the fact that they choose the 13th day of the month to use in that date line makes my brain hurt trying to read it.

[magicmexican]

Last chance to get bitcoins under 1500$.

I like this one

Can anyone remember the link to the collection on train pics? Been looking for it for ages now but havent needed it much the last few months. 

Only problem is... that train is obviously going nowhere...

It will fly away, you only need some imagination to fuel it.

[rpietila]

The 2014 Price Prediction Contest shows some interesting results:

The first prediction round results are here!

We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 8 months (price in last day of May, June, ... December).

The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:

Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the prodictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally rather high figure, even for the nearest months.

Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.

Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".

Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.

Months go from May to December. mBTC, decimal comma.

I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.

Code:

arith ave	2,08	2,57	3,08	3,68	4,35	4,97	5,96	7,47
geom ave	0,58	0,68	0,77	0,92	1,06	1,17	1,90	3,19
median  	0,47	0,53	0,6	0,67	0,67	0,75	0,84	0,94
mode	    0,47	0,47	0,47	0,53	0,53	0,53	0,6	0,75

Taking a simple average of all the predictions, we are forecasted to be at $7.5 (add 000 if you still want to stick to whole bitcoins despite the poll results) at the close of the year. By using geometric averages, which penalize the outlier predictions, the price would be only $3.2

The geometric average is forecasted to grow quite steadily until October, resulting in a 2.5x gain in 6 months from current levels. Compared to the trendline, this would result in the price languishing at about -0.4 or less for all this time, before the turn.

Median (same probability below and above this price) shows even more contained increase with a 10% monthly gain on average.

Even worse for the mode. The most probable (according to forecasters) single price slot for the next 6 months is only around $0.5.

[freebit13]

Only problem is... that train is obviously going nowhere...

It will fly away, you only need some imagination to fuel it.

I guess you're right... there are no railway tracks to the moon 

[p0peji]

Great news indeed, according to WSJ China government is finally enforcing the regulations.
Chinese people holding BTC in one of the exchanges after 10-05 are basically fucked, as is also suggested by some people on the Chinese sub-forum of this board.

[spooderman]

HOLY FUCKING GOD DAMN CHRIST WHAT THE SHIT??

Are we back in a bull market now or something?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

Great news indeed, according to WSJ China government is finally enforcing the regulations.
Chinese people holding BTC in one of the exchanges after 10-05 are basically fucked, as is also suggested by some people on the Chinese sub-forum of this board.

Funny that, this was on BTCChinas facebook page from 15 mins ago

Dear Customers,

Contrary to some recent media reports, deposits to BTC China are still available via two methods: BTCC Voucher and Cash Deposits. Our Exchange is operating normally and all customer funds are secure.

We recently removed the Bank of China's bank transfer deposit method at the bank's request. We plan to provide our customers with more deposit options soon. Please stay tuned.

BTC China Team
May 7, 2014

[oda.krell]

HOLY FUCKING GOD DAMN CHRIST WHAT THE SHIT??

Are we back in a bull market now or something?

YES! ABSOLUTELY! WE ARE!

We broke the holy 440! That's it, back on track to 300,000 per coin!


(Of course not. I'd at least wait with getting excited until we make it to around 480 and close above, that'd be a remarkable feat in this market situation.)

[TERA]

HOLY FUCKING GOD DAMN CHRIST WHAT THE SHIT??

Are we back in a bull market now or something?

Yes; this is totally a bull market chart....

[p0peji]

Great news indeed, according to WSJ China government is finally enforcing the regulations.
Chinese people holding BTC in one of the exchanges after 10-05 are basically fucked, as is also suggested by some people on the Chinese sub-forum of this board.

Funny that, this was on BTCChinas facebook page from 15 mins ago

Dear Customers,

Contrary to some recent media reports, deposits to BTC China are still available via two methods: BTCC Voucher and Cash Deposits. Our Exchange is operating normally and all customer funds are secure.

We recently removed the Bank of China's bank transfer deposit method at the bank's request. We plan to provide our customers with more deposit options soon. Please stay tuned.

BTC China Team
May 7, 2014

BTC China are a bunch of lying snakes. Remember the  "Bank accounts are closing??? We have heard no such news!" responses?

[TERA]

I think right now the Chinese exchanges are in a desperate attempt to pump and draw in as much money as possible over these next few days/weeks so that they can close in the black or something.

[hdbuck]

Great news indeed, according to WSJ China government is finally enforcing the regulations.
Chinese people holding BTC in one of the exchanges after 10-05 are basically fucked, as is also suggested by some people on the Chinese sub-forum of this board.

Funny that, this was on BTCChinas facebook page from 15 mins ago

Dear Customers,

Contrary to some recent media reports, deposits to BTC China are still available via two methods: BTCC Voucher and Cash Deposits. Our Exchange is operating normally and all customer funds are secure.

We recently removed the Bank of China's bank transfer deposit method at the bank's request. We plan to provide our customers with more deposit options soon. Please stay tuned.

BTC China Team
May 7, 2014

BTC China are a bunch of lying snakes. Remember the  "Bank accounts are closing??? We have heard no such news!" responses?

imo they're just doing this to stash max btc for themselves before the next take off..

[spooderman]

HOLY FUCKING GOD DAMN CHRIST WHAT THE SHIT??

Are we back in a bull market now or something?

Yes; this is totally a bull market chart....

I sense your sarcasm, and I feel you are justified also! However, I genuinely don't understand how that chart would support that position. It starts low...ends high?