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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26910988 times)
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OgNasty
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October 14, 2025, 11:09:33 PM

Lot's of negativity even from seasoned people, not too worried to be honest, expect to see higher prices soon(ish) Grin

Agree! Lots of negativity from OGs.

You would think they would understand and actually embrace the volatility, knowing it's naturally going to happen on the way to the finish line.

It doesn't bother me either - it's like water rolling right off a duck's back...  Cheesy

Don’t think bearishness is negativity. A lot of the OGs have been around a few cycles and know what comes next. Like I’ve said, there’s a good chance we go higher before the end of the year, but it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will be selling for cheaper in 18 months. Buy if you want, but don’t shrug off the warnings as negativity.
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October 15, 2025, 12:01:16 AM


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October 15, 2025, 12:52:25 AM

Lot's of negativity even from seasoned people, not too worried to be honest, expect to see higher prices soon(ish) Grin

Agree! Lots of negativity from OGs.

You would think they would understand and actually embrace the volatility, knowing it's naturally going to happen on the way to the finish line.

It doesn't bother me either - it's like water rolling right off a duck's back...  Cheesy

Don’t think bearishness is negativity. A lot of the OGs have been around a few cycles and know what comes next. Like I’ve said, there’s a good chance we go higher before the end of the year, but it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will be selling for cheaper in 18 months. Buy if you want, but don’t shrug off the warnings as negativity.

If we hit the ath in 2026 we break the 4 year cycle pattern.

If we go side ways for 10 months more in a 106-126 slot we break the 4 year cycle.

Time keeps on slipping slipping into the future, but there's a solution.
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October 15, 2025, 01:01:13 AM


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October 15, 2025, 01:08:50 AM
Last edit: October 15, 2025, 01:20:39 AM by ESG
Merited by Hueristic (1)

 I'm not considering a continuation of this drop yet, I just saw that it was tested twice the bottom of 110000, but with daily opening below yesterday's close, but 2k above the low, indicates that there is a possibility of continuation if it doesn't close the week above 116k.... if there is none, it opens the way for the test of 'the so-called 100k'... And then I move on to consider the continuation and confirmation of a bear market.

Quote
Quote from:
247wallst_By Rich Duprey
Oct 14, 2025 3:27 pm 

(This post may contain links from ..)
After Historic Liquidation Event, Has the Crypto Winter Arrived?

 (...)What made this event historic wasn’t just the speed — 1.6 million accounts were liquidated in 24 hours — but the leverage that fueled it. Platforms like Hyperliquid (CRYPTO:HYPE) saw 88% of losses from overextended long bets, with ratios up to 100x turning modest dips into total ruin.. The overall market bled $200 billion, a stark reminder that crypto’s highs come with hairpin turns.(...)

(...)Is the Post-Crash Bounce Real or a Head Fake?

...Traders are cautious, buying contracts to protect against further drops. These bets, especially on Bitcoin at $95,000 and Ethereum at $3,600, signal fear of more declines. Past flash crashes, like 2022’s 70% drop, fuel these concerns. Trade tensions or economic slowdown could deepen losses...
.....
...Still, institutional holders, including Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), shrugged off the dip; their BTC hoard now tops 250,000 coins, while BlackRock‘s (NYSE:BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) saw net buys, recording $134 million in inflows over the past two trading days and 10 straight days of net inflows, according to CoinDesk.....

Will a Crypto Winter Hit?

Fear seems to rule the trading floor now. Options data signals severe caution with volatility surging 30% in short-dated contracts. Although traders aren’t fleeing; they’re fortifying their positions with aggressive downside protection. On-chain metrics show reduced open interest as sentiment indexes hover near “extreme fear” levels last seen in 2022.



While fools sell lies, the wise buy truths!
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October 15, 2025, 01:46:25 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Stack is growing via btc mining.

dca and hodl
buy the dip and hodl

maybe 1 day I will have 2x 0.63 coins
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October 15, 2025, 01:50:17 AM
Last edit: October 15, 2025, 02:02:12 AM by d_eddie

Bessent is a "player"...
Wham...selling a tiny bit of gold and buying bitcoin...

--good numbers--

This is not a real prediction.

Even less so if gold has to be physically delivered  Tongue
Nice thought, though.
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October 15, 2025, 02:10:08 AM

Lot's of negativity even from seasoned people, not too worried to be honest, expect to see higher prices soon(ish) Grin

Agree! Lots of negativity from OGs.

You would think they would understand and actually embrace the volatility, knowing it's naturally going to happen on the way to the finish line.

It doesn't bother me either - it's like water rolling right off a duck's back...  Cheesy

Don’t think bearishness is negativity. A lot of the OGs have been around a few cycles and know what comes next. Like I’ve said, there’s a good chance we go higher before the end of the year, but it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will be selling for cheaper in 18 months. Buy if you want, but don’t shrug off the warnings as negativity.
Life has different phases so is the crypto market.

Let's enjoy what is about to befall us... bull or bear market!

Staying positive!
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October 15, 2025, 03:01:17 AM


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October 15, 2025, 06:08:06 AM


Let's enjoy what is about to befall us... bull or bear market!


How about neither? Aka a sideways trend.
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October 15, 2025, 06:20:15 AM

The lines are pretty clear I must say the problem is more that there was weaponized misinformation.

The OP return limit does nothing and most miners already bypass it. The change with Bitcoin Core doesn't really change anything. Policy rules are rules that Core can change arbitrarily. This would be different if we were talking about a consensus rule which is not the case here.
That was part of the issue in 2017 too..

The question was not so much about whether increasing the block size might be a good thing, but instead about governance and how changes are made.

So in this most recent case, the substantive change might not matter as much as going down the road of just willy-nilly changing things.. which can cause issues in terms of bad influences coming to bitcoin and then forcing a change.  A lot of folks are so far choosing NOT to run core version 30.. . .yet we will still have to see how it plays out, since not running core version 30 might not be a great option, either.. .and the battle and/or discussion is not necessarily over, yet.
But policy rules are not related to governance. The policy rules are subjective rules that are implemented by developers of Bitcoin Core. They can change them up and down at will. Consensus rules is where you need governance to make changes. Why should random people get to have an opinion on engineering changes that don't affect consensus? What makes them think they can have an opinion on it?

You might be correct in theory, yet guys likely will get upset if they feel snubbed, and since bitcoin is open source software normies feel entitles to participate and to be able to have input in regards to substance and/or procedures.

So, yeah there are substantive arguments and there are procedural arguments, and surely folks are not always going to be competent in terms of arguments that they are making whether they are arguing about process or arguing about substance.

You might also be correct that core can do whatever they like, and then people can choose or choose not to run the software and/or to create counter implementations, since it is all open source the code can be seen, to the extent it is understood or that others might have trust to run the software if it were an implementation that was not the same as core's implementation.

but I don’t think I’ve ever been as disappointed in Bitcoin as I currently am. Utterly pathetic 2025 so far.

I thought 150k was close to guaranteed but it looks miles off right now.
Less than 50% away is miles off? I think this flash crash has got you emotionally down. This is nothing. I expect better from long holders.

People react differently, and surely so far our current correction has ONLY gotten as low as 13% from the top, so it surely does not seem to be a BIG deal, yet LFC seems to be getting caught up upon a timeline, like bitcoin has to do a certain level of performance at a certain time, as if bitcoin is on a schedule, and surely it worked out somewhat for him when he was saying those same things in the last cycle (2021), and he even went through a similar dynamic in 2017.. and it can even be seen on the chart, so yeah, he seems to be getting it stuck in his head that the cycles are guaranteed  to be within a certain kind of time parameter.

Lot's of negativity even from seasoned people, not too worried to be honest, expect to see higher prices soon(ish) Grin
My thoughts are the same. We are at most 2 good weeks away from $150k unless people consider a 5% increase in 7 days a good week.  Cheesy

You are on a schedule too?

~snip~
[edited out]
I will be happy if we are over 120k on Jan 1.  yeah 130 or 150 or 200 would be nicer
I can not cash in large amounts this year due to tax issues so I have to wait tll Jan 1 or later.

I need to cash at least 35k in coin next year to cover expenses.
And the extra income will hurt me  tax wise if I do that this year.
You feeling lucky, punk?

I had to throw that in there.
 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


I was thinking more about Clint Eastwood.

If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now. This seems the best advice.

That would surely be dumb.  Gold had already lost the sound money race, and the mere fact that it has a little bit of life in it should not divert any of us into buying it.. .. but hey.. do what you like.

But... What if the logic is wrong? If learned something during all these years is that when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody. I have the (SOMA) feeling that this is the case, and by the end of the year she will touch 200K. No arguments for that, no logic, nothing. Hence not a financial advice.  Cool

The reason that the upward explosion has tended to occur with bitcoin is based on fundamentals.. such as bitcoin is more than 1,000x better than gold, and it is the soundest money known to man.. .. so ultimately there is UPPity price pressures upon it, even if it had not been going up (as much as we would have had hoped) in recent times.

I sold enough Bitcoin to comfortably get me through six years now. I’d like to sell a lot more but I can’t at this price so I’ll just sit with my bags and pray.

When in doubt.  Pray... Not a bad idea.

Gotta love widespread despair at one hundred and ten thousand dollars per Bit Coin

Also: "sell btc for gold's remarkable performance!!1" L.O.L.

Lots of lost puppies who are thinking that Gold is the preferable play (as compared with bitcoin).



If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now. This seems the best advice. But... What if the logic is wrong? If learned something during all these years is that when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody. I have the (SOMA) feeling that this is the case, and by the end of the year she will touch 200K. No arguments for that, no logic, nothing. Hence not a financial advice.  Cool
I wouldn’t buy Gold now. In hindsight it’d have been a great idea to buy earlier this year but I’d be too worried that it looks very toppy here now. How much more gas is left in the tank on its ascent? It looks really over bought right now.

I sold enough Bitcoin to comfortably get me through six years now. I’d like to sell a lot more but I can’t at this price so I’ll just sit with my bags and pray.
What I meant is if I had 1000BTC, I would sell like 10-20BTC for gold. But not for quick profit. More like longterm diversification for my heirs just in case. I'm perfectly aware that gold can crash 40% from the ATH and stay there for over 10 years. Thus it make sense to plan for 15+ years.

I don't know you would need 1,000 bitcoin.

Why is there to make the example so outrageous.

Currently, if a guy were to have a goal to have a lifelong income of at least $80k per year with a 7% per year increase in his income, then he would merely need to currently have 14.857 BTC. 

Sure, he might not be sure if 14.857 BTC is enough, so maybe he would have 3-5 times that much, just to be sure... just to have a cushion... so that might bring him up to right around 74.285 to have 3 times the amount.  There is no reason he should need to have 67x his threshold amount in order to justify diversifying.

Yeah having 1000 btc would call for some diversity in assets.
10=1.1million
100=11 million
1000=110 million

I would want about 5 keys of gold this is about 600,000
I would want around 25 keys of silver this is about 40,000
I would want actual cash euros pounds usd i would want 300000 in each currency
I would want 3 homes one not in the usa 2 in the usa. This would be around 3million

So all of the above would,be around 4 million or 40 coins i would keep the other 960 coins  in multiple wallets
Where is the real estate? One needs things that have cashflow not solely rely on value retentation or appreciation.

If a guy had nothing except the assets that Phil described, then he could still get a cashflow from his 960 bitcoin, and I personally believe that he could withdraw the equivalent of more than $5.17 million per year and even give himself a 7% per year raise, and he would never deplete his bitcoin (of course, he could monitor his withdrawal rate to make sure that he does not overdo it), yet that more conservative withdrawal rate could be choosing to ONLY withdraw between $1 million and $5 million per year rather than the full authorized amount of $5.17 million per year.
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October 15, 2025, 06:22:01 AM
Last edit: October 15, 2025, 06:40:23 AM by somac.

Bitcoin vs gold. While the trend is in Bitcoin's favor we are still below the 2021 peak, more than 4 years ago. We need a solid break into the 40 ounce area but we are far from it. Bitcoin has been under performing gold for sometime now.



I should add, this shows that Bitcoin is undervalued right now. If we do go down it is not because the price is in a bubble, it is the opposite right now.
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October 15, 2025, 07:02:35 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1), AlcoHoDL (1), OutOfMemory (1)

If I had enough bitcoins, I would probably sell some for gold right now. This seems the best advice. But... What if the logic is wrong? If learned something during all these years is that when the chances for an explosive bull run are almost 0, she surprises everybody. I have the (SOMA) feeling that this is the case, and by the end of the year she will touch 200K. No arguments for that, no logic, nothing. Hence not a financial advice.  Cool
Gold or Bitcoin has been a debate for a long time. When Bitcoin is in a bear market and the price of gold increases relatively a little, many investors think that they should sell all their investments and buy gold, but is this a permanent solution? Bitcoin has reached this price gradually, when Bitcoin was in a bear market for a long time, many people sold Bitcoin, but even at that time, those who were patient and did not sell are now getting a good amount of profit. In this case, we can give an example of 2020, in 2020 we only saw a bear in the Bitcoin market and most experts suspected that the possibility of a bull run in the market was very low, but in the end, to our surprise, the market reached a bull run and got enough wisdom.

Now, if we look at the price of gold, it is increasing every day, so if an investor thinks that he sells Bitcoin and buys gold and after a few days, if Bitcoin goes to 200k or above, then these investors will regret it.

So I think we should keep the remaining amount of money as an investment in Bitcoin, leaving gold for use.
Short time, or even impulsive re-balancing never worked out for me with Bitcoin.
I always watched King Daddy going ahead of the other assets, medium and long term.
Once i got this, and it didn't even take a year, i only bought and held Bitcoin, never looked back, no Regrets.

Just my two cents.

It is hard to believe why anyone investing into bitcoin for more than a year would have had regrets for investing in bitcoin rather than gold.

Bitcoin has kicked the shit out of bitcoin for the past several years, and yeah, maybe looking at some shorter timeframes, you might imagine gold out performing bitcoin, but it still seems like a distraction, even if "technically" there are ways to show that gold out performed bitcoin on a few different time slots.

By the way, anyone holding $50k or more of either gold and/or bitcoin and who is wanting to move it around, guess which one is easier to move?  Guess which one is more divisible, the most scarce, easiest to verify its veracity or not needing to use a third party intermediary.  Even more true if you might have $1 million or more in one or the other.

I would have 960 coins left. I am 68. No kids  and a very  good wife.
I can simply spend 30 coins a year until I am 100

Or 40 coins a year till I am 92
Or 20 coins a year till I am 114.

That first move of selling those coins and setting up places to live with some hard assets is just that.
BTW cashing 20 coins for 1 years expenses is far move than I would ever need to do.
or spend 900 cornz on a medbed now for you and your wife. live forever.

then have 60 cornz left to invest like your favorite bot, JJG, formulas in his various posts. that will last forever laura. matter of fact bet you that JJG will bet you something before long(ish)

maybe?
maybe?

I am itching to bet. 

Especially when guys are making outrageous claims.

[edited out]
Don’t think bearishness is negativity. A lot of the OGs have been around a few cycles and know what comes next. Like I’ve said, there’s a good chance we go higher before the end of the year, but it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will be selling for cheaper in 18 months. Buy if you want, but don’t shrug off the warnings as negativity.

Wow!!

That proposition, with that level of confidence, is almost bettable.  Today's price versus the BTC price 18 months from now. 

Which is lower? 

Do I get odds, or would we be doing a 50/50 bet?  Your level of confidence (OgNasty) causes me to believe that you think that the odds are pretty high that BTC prices will be lower 18 months from now.  Put some money on it.. just for fun.

Stack is growing via btc mining.

dca and hodl
buy the dip and hodl

maybe 1 day I will have 2x 0.63 coins

That is how it works Phil.

Brand new guys might have to start out with goals of 1million, 10 million and/or 21 million satoshis, yet other guys who have been in bitcoin for a while can shoot for higher accumulation goals.

Bessent is a "player"...
Wham...selling a tiny bit of gold and buying bitcoin...

--good numbers--

This is not a real prediction.

Even less so if gold has to be physically delivered  Tongue
Nice thought, though.

Nobody owns physical gold.  They just fantasize about owning actual gold while they are really holding their various paper claims. 

They would not know a $100k piece of gold if it were to fall on their foot (or if it were to be strategically placed in other convenient bodily places if it were to be attempted to be covertly (privately) transported across borders..

Bitcoin vs gold. While the trend is in Bitcoin's favor we are still below the 2021 peak, more than 4 years ago. We need a solid break into the 40 ounce area but we are far from it. Bitcoin has been under performing gold for sometime now.

I should add, this shows that Bitcoin is undervalued right now. If we do go down it is not because the price is in a bubble, it is the opposite right now.

Yeah, but.  the more you zoom out, the worse it looks for "the case for gold"

This chart merely shows the last 5 years, but you can zoom out further (by clicking on the link and playing with the chart)... especially for those of us who had established our bitcoin position more than 5 years ago.



https://www.longtermtrends.net/bitcoin-vs-gold/
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October 15, 2025, 07:11:03 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (9)

5 years is a long time Jay, and being we're talking about the lackluster performance of Bitcoin this cycle, going back even further just proves the point more.
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