There are fake golds in circulation, but I’ve never heard of anyone getting fake BTC in their wallet
.. unless it never arrived in their wallet .
Fake Bitcoin is very common. Many exchanges now have about 5 different withdrawal-options when you click "Bitcoin", and only one of them is real Bitcoin. Many people fall for that.
This is not the correct comparison. Wrapped Bitcoin are not fake Bitcoin as long as they are backed by locked in Bitcoin and always redeemable.
"Wrapped" Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold: controlled by someone else, and you can't even check if it exists. And if you lose the keys, the creator of those "wrapped" coins gets richer instead of this:
Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
Exactly! That’s the harsh truth many still overlook. Wrapped Bitcoin might sound like innovation, but in reality, it’s just rehypothecation in crypto clothing. You’re basically handing your BTC to a custodian and getting a “receipt” token back, one that only holds value as long as that custodian stays honest, solvent, and operational. Bitcoin was meant to free us from that kind of system. It was built so that you become your own bank, not so that we recreate banks with fancy smart contracts. It’s funny when people say, “WBTC brings Bitcoin to DeFi,” but what it really does is bring trust-based risk back to Bitcoin. You can’t audit their reserves directly, and if that middleman ever fails, it’s not “decentralized finance” anymore, it’s just “decentralized dependency.” Sure, it might serve some short-term purposes like liquidity and bridging between ecosystems, but let’s be honest, when you wrap your Bitcoin, you’re wrapping it in risk. So yeah, the comparison stands strong, "Wrapped Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold", a representation, not the real deal and at the end of the day, the same old rule applies, "Not your keys, not your Coins, Not your Bitcoin, not your freedom".
Coming from a newbie forum account, that is quite an impressive description of the kind of smoke and mirror deception that is taking place in regards to some of these various layered products that may well be built upon questionably collateralized shitcoins and that paperize bitcoin in the guise of supposedly adding value, when more likely the addition of value is deceptive and perhaps even ways to part normies (or whoever uses that crap) from their bitcoin.. and sometimes normies do not even realize the various deceptive ways that affinity scams upon bitcoin are taking place (or having the potential to take place).
Did you write that or did you get assistance and/or extrapolate it from some other write-up. Some of us, including yours truly, are skeptical of the authenticity and whether newer accounts are actually people rather than machines. Once we get to know you, we might become a bit less skeptical.. perhaps?
Another Bitcoin dump.
If $106,000 $107,000 support breaks it will drop all the way to (sub)$100,000 ore this is the bottom.
We never really stood a chance with Trump in charge did we, this year. His bipolar, autistic outbursts and rage posting online have stopped us being able to sustain a proper bull market.
I don’t want to see anybody telling me ‘we went from 15k to 126k’ because the only reason we went to 15k is because Bitcoin performs terribly in bear markets.
Holy shit, LFC.
There are not a whole hell of a lot folks who really study bitcoin and/or attempt to figure out (with some level of accuracy) the reasons for the various BTC price moves and/or BTC price dynamics, and even folks who study bitcoin price dynamics in fairly deep ways may well end up with confusion about the causes of certain BTC price moves.
So, my point is that there tend to be a lot of ways that BTC price dynamics can be (and tend to be) misunderstood, so in that sense, your suggestion that normies should understand bitcoin price dynamics comes off as quite misplaced.
For sure, many of us studying BTC price dynamics in 2022 and even dragging into 2023, we realize that a lot of shit went wrong, and there were cascading liquidations, leverage built upon leverage and a lot of deception that tended to screw certain folks holding bitcoin with third parties (especially those 3rd parties that were offering "high yield") rather than folks who were either self-custodying their coins and/or holding their coins in more conservative locations - even though surely any newbie (or not so newbie) could have coincidentally or even by the seeming ease of use, gotten sucked into holding and/or trading their BTC (and perhaps even what they thought were conservative shitcoins) through FTX's platform - including that we were seeing FTX (and even SBF's image) advertised all over the place as if it were some kind of long-standing bitcoin (and crypto) incumbent product/service. A lot of innocent folks (including some of us who are active in this thread) could have had gotten sucked into using the services/products offered by/through FTX. In other words, some of us, just by luck might have been saved from the shitty situation if we had put some of our coins/value/time and/or energy into FTX's products/services.
Of course, FTX was not the only somewhat innocent way that any of us could have had gotten trapped into extensive losses, and perhaps even had gotten prematurely (and somewhat innocently) discouraged and/or disgruntled in regards to bitcoin.
Getting back to the theme of lucky. Even though some guys do not appreciate the ramifications of the term "lucky," several of us are likely still very lucky to have had not gotten extensively sucked into various scams, and there are some guys who have not lost any of their bitcoin. I have disclosed some aspects of my own loss of coins over the years, and I still consider that I have quite a bit of luck to have had been able to hang onto the quantity of sats that I have been able to hang onto, and perhaps some of that luck had been due to my own learning from mistakes and attempting to not go too far out on the risk curve, and some other aspects of my own abilities to prosper and not lose all of my coins (and become disgruntled in the process) might have come from some levels of experience that informed me about various ways that I might either need to be skeptical and to employ various incremental efforts rather than getting too extreme in my actions.
Over the years, some forum members (including in this thread) have chided me for my choices to participate in various kinds of exchanges and/or even to participate in various kinds of products, including that if I had an account that had exposure to BTC spot ETFs, then I might even play around with getting some BTC price exposure to that kind of product, even though it is not necessarily a completely good thing for the bitcoin ecosystem.
So even some of my own various losses of BTC over the years related to my keeping several accounts through various exchanges and/or other third party services, and part of my own choices to both practice using such services and considering that several of those services were necessary evils in regards to both increasing bitcoin adoption and/or publicizing the existence of bitcoin and bringing some abilities for price discovery and price arbitrage that tended to be way greater in my earlier years of bitcoin between late 2013 and even into 2017 as compared with the differences in BTC prices across exchanges and/or third-party services in recent years.
There could be some assertions that some of the newer bitcoin (and bitcoin-related) services are mere tools to attempt to control bitcoin prices, and even for us to get jaded in regards to bitcoin prices being controlled and/or manipulated, and surely there has always been some manipulation going on in the bitcoin space that may well (from time to time) even blow up upon those attempting to manipulate bitcoin and/or the space around bitcoin.
I prefer to measure cycle top to cycle top, so $1300 in 2013 to $19,000 in 2017 to $69,000 in 2021 to $126,000 in 2025.
Not that you are wrong, yet measuring from the top might help to explain your seemingly ongoing emotional state of being? hahahahahaha
Personally, I think that measuring bitcoin bottoms is less nerve racking.. even though surely I recognize and appreciate that when we are buying and selling bitcoin we are doing that through existing BTC spot prices rather than through various moving averages (including the 200-WMA) that might ONLY provide us with some measure of where we are at rather than giving us specifics regarding actionability or consequences of our actions, and so surely, on a personal level I am likely attempting to ground myself with bottoms such as the 200-WMA, while at the same time, assessing the extent to which BTC spot prices might be above or below such 200-WMA and how much distance exists between BTC spot prices and the 200-WMA.
I continue to hone my own practices and assessment, so it is not like I am exactly locked into some kind of a practice that I have always done, and in that regard, I think that my own assessment and practices and even my ways of talking about bitcoin have improved because of my attempts to look at spot price as compared to the 200-WMA rather than getting too far distracted by the ongoing noise of short term BTC prices in and of themselves.
So as we can see, vastly diminishing returns.
Whether or not "vastly" serves as an appropriate descriptor is still to be seen, even though disminishing returns is logical and should be expected from any growing asset, whether or not we consider bitcoin to be early in its development or further down the road in its development.
It seems that I am ongoingly battling guys who frame bitcoin as if it were a mature asset, and sometimes guys (perhaps even you, LFC?) are thinking about bitcoin as if it were an asset getting close to maturity, when bitcoin is far as fuck from even close to mature, even if some of its upside potential has been dampened relative to our earlier years of getting involved in bitcoin.
Holy shit LFC!!! Both you and I (and sure a good number of other guys in this thread) have been in bitcoin close to 10 years or even more than 10 years, and bitcoin is still so fucking lacking in adoption in regards to normies (retail), and even on the institutional and/or government adoption level, many of those dip twats are talking a BIG game in regards to their increasing their bitcoin exposure, yet it seem that the blockchain evidence is not showing meaningful adoption from the various institutions, governments and/or status quo rich folks, which still should cause us some wonderment in regards to the extent to which paper bitcoin might be being practiced and/or allowed and not yet blowing up, and if there might be some paper bitcoin contributing to bitcoins lack of going up.. which surely can become devastating on holders, but also those manipulations (and short-cut attempts) may well end up blowing up for the paper bitcoiners again, just like it did in 2022.. too many claims on bitcoin as compared to the actual number of bitcoins available.
I guess the real test is what the bottom of the next bear market will. We have to assume it won’t be so bad as previous times so maybe ‘only’ a 50% haircut from $126,000.
Are you still assuming that the odds are greater than 50/50 that we have transitioned into a bear market? .. even though surely I agree with you that even with our level of bitcoin adoption and the various ways that paper bitcoin might be manipulating bitcoin, it seems to still be difficult to get a correction (or even a bear market) that would end up taking us down greater than 50% of the so far $126k-ish top.. .so yeah, 50% would put $63k as a possibility that I would still consider to be a longshot, yet at the same time, we can never be certain in regards to which the status quo rich folks (governments and/or institutions) are fucking around behind the scenes in order to attempt to cause some kind of an outrageous crash in bitcoin to shake more normies (earlier adopters) from the actual coins that they hold.
It is what it is, I’m very lucky I got in early. The huge gains we used to get have retired me and I am so thankful to Satoshi and the entire Bitcoin community. Not even 2x from 2021 cycle top is a warning sign though maybe.
Even if we use your seemly lame measurement of top to top and presume that our top is already in, then 2x from the last top to the present top, is not even that bad of an occurrence (even if it were a fair assessment). Nearly 2x top to top in 4-ish years. Not bad. Not bad.
Although you know I think that going top to top is a deluded way of assessing bitcoin, and again, I am going to suggest that the 200-WMA is a way more accurate way of assessing where we are at based on where we came from and trying to hypothesize where we might be going.
Accordingly, let's use 4 years from today to establish that our today's $53,935 is about 3.3x higher than our $16,302 200-WMA on October 17, 2021. There is way the fuck more meaning in measuring the 200-WMA as compared with your lame-ass attempts (even if you have good intentions - no homo... .hahahahaha) to measure either spot price or from top to premature assumed top.
And, by the way, just for repetition, don't let my own concession to parts of your framing contribute towards suggestions that I would concede that even if your presumption of a slightly less than 2x top is even a bad thing in and of itself, even if that were to serve as a reasonable framing of our current bitcoin status.
For clarity, I think the top is in and this cycle is definitely over. Tempted to take JJG bet that we won’t see a new ATH before the end of Q1 2026,
I would love it.. even a 50/50 bet and we don't even have to use too much of a high number of satoshis. Let's put such a possible bet at something like 100k satoshis or some reasonable amount like that.. and if we use the end of the 1st quarter of 2026 as the timeline, then it is not even very far away before the bet would close.. slightly less than 6 months, worse case scenario...and surely, I would stop ragging on you so much if you actually put some value behind what I have been characterizing as "your whining" - because if you put some value behind it, then surely, it would be a lot more difficult for me to claim that your baselessly whining. I could merely proclaim that it is my belief that you are going to lose your bet.. .
pobrecito!!!!... hahahahahaha
seems like free money.
hahahaha..
That is good if each of us feels that our side of the bet has greater than 50/50 odds of winning.
We won’t see a new ATH for a couple of years at least in my opinion, maybe even 2029. I think we hit over $160,000 in 2029 though.
That is almost like a chaser bet, yet I would be happy enough to merely take your money on the shorter timeframe and then figure out who has to eat the humble pie by no later than the end of the 1st quarter of 2026.. and surely, I would concede that if you end up winning the bet, then there still might be good chances of you having some directional correction in regards to a longer timeline, such as no more ATH for a long period of time, such as 2029.. and holy shit, you are bearish as fuck to consider that bitcoin is in such a precarious position, even with so much adoption that seems to be ongoing (and surely a decent amount of the seeming value coming into bitcoin might blow up.. perhaps? perhaps?, which seems to be part of your underlying assumption regarding where we are at and where we might be going). With your views, it is quite good that you took some off the table.. and I even hate to ask.. .... but I will anyhow (which might allow me to proclaim that you are talking your book.. hahahahaha.. which really you have a right to do) did you take more than 5% off the table? I have a hard time considering taking 5% or more off the table, event though even for me, it might be better to take some off the table.. and you can proclaim that even I am somewhat biased based on my own unwillingness (and lack of doing it) in taking more coins off the table.
By the way.. let me say one more thing (now that I have your attention).. If you took more than 5% off the table at around $121k, I am going to say that it has become more difficult to employ such "diamond hands" as a self-descriptor... We can agree to disagree on this point, but I just wanted to say it, even if my saying it is a wee bit of an extra (and perhaps too much?) provocation.
Poll
