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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26907369 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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October 17, 2025, 08:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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October 17, 2025, 08:22:33 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Got this while doing a little digging from a thread
Department of Justice Files Largest Ever Forfeiture Action Against Approximately $15B in Bitcoin Currently in U.S. Custody
So if this is approved, the U.S. gets to add about +127,271 BTC ~ $15B+ … to its reserve

reminder: forfeited assets from seized Bitcoin cases goes into Strategic Bitcoin reserve..

i wonder whats the stance on it as at now .
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October 17, 2025, 08:46:53 PM

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.
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October 17, 2025, 08:49:09 PM

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.

 He is a bot... And we did give him his own day for a hot minute!!! The crazy part is we all used to yell at his creative explanations. Now we award him...He made it through to the other side!!!
K
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October 17, 2025, 08:52:41 PM
Last edit: October 17, 2025, 09:08:31 PM by BitHodlers

There are fake golds in circulation, but I’ve never heard of anyone getting fake BTC in their wallet Smiley.. unless it never arrived in their wallet .
Fake Bitcoin is very common. Many exchanges now have about 5 different withdrawal-options when you click "Bitcoin", and only one of them is real Bitcoin. Many people fall for that.
This is not the correct comparison. Wrapped Bitcoin are not fake Bitcoin as long as they are backed by locked in Bitcoin and always redeemable.
"Wrapped" Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold: controlled by someone else, and you can't even check if it exists. And if you lose the keys, the creator of those "wrapped" coins gets richer instead of this:
Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone.
Sounds good, except that I am pretty sure you can verify it but you have to trust BitGo that they do own it. Here is a list of addresses. https://wbtc.network/transparency. I don't think there is a decentralized way of proving this. Or do we consider BitGo now an untrustworthy company? For a wrapped thing it is as good as we're going to get. You or we may not like those products but they have their reasons for existing otherwise why would people put 100k BTC into this? The world works with custodians whether we like it or not. Most of the ETFs are not much better either perhaps with some more regulation but that doesn't guarantee anything. You can't convince a man of not your keys not your Bitcoin if he doesn't understand its benefit, it is not possible. Don't confuse me, I don't prefer wBTC I am just saying that it is not as bad as it seems for what it is. Many of these things don't have any transparency at all.

Anyway it is because of this that I don't think the original comparison is accurate.

Exactly! That’s the harsh truth many still overlook. Wrapped Bitcoin might sound like innovation, but in reality, it’s just rehypothecation in crypto clothing. You’re basically handing your BTC to a custodian and getting a “receipt” token back, one that only holds value as long as that custodian stays honest, solvent, and operational. Bitcoin was meant to free us from that kind of system. It was built so that you become your own bank, not so that we recreate banks with fancy smart contracts. It’s funny when people say, “WBTC brings Bitcoin to DeFi,” but what it really does is bring trust-based risk back to Bitcoin. You can’t audit their reserves directly, and if that middleman ever fails, it’s not “decentralized finance” anymore, it’s just “decentralized dependency.” Sure, it might serve some short-term purposes like liquidity and bridging between ecosystems, but let’s be honest, when you wrap your Bitcoin, you’re wrapping it in risk. So yeah, the comparison stands strong, "Wrapped Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold",  a representation, not the real deal and at the end of the day, the same old rule applies, "Not your keys, not your Coins, Not your Bitcoin, not your freedom".
That sounds good theoretically, but most of the corporate treasuries are held this way. Why jump on WBTC as wrong? Did you write to Saylor that he should take control of his keys?  Grin

Most of my reason for writing my post was to respond to your previous post in which you seemed to have been proclaiming that some people do not deserve to whine about bitcoin core or various aspects of bitcoin's code on the basis that they did not know enough, and I was proclaiming that anyone can participate, so you seem to be backing off of your earlier claim(s).
My apologies for the confusion then on my end. I don't think that anyone should participate, maybe that is the point that I am trying to make. They most certainly can, but they should not. A lot of people give opinions on technical matters but they are very wrong and because of that they are using up valuable time from the Core contributors. This is not good. If you want to participate honestly, you should spend at least several months or even years only reading before you give any opinion on anything. This modern world is strange. Not that long ago people would not share their false knowledge, they would wait until they became masters of a trade before they would try to educate someone else.

I don't know what is being assumed beyond bitcoin is not going to go up and/or bitcoin is going to go down.. and/or the bull market is over..
And the only reason they think that is because we had a small crash from the ATH. Nothing else! It is crazy. You can manipulate the opinions of most people so easily if you are part of powers that be. Many people are already panicking while I am yawning at this. Does nobody remember previous cycles anymore?

Perhaps I need a nap..
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October 17, 2025, 09:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
OutOfMemory
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October 17, 2025, 09:15:47 PM
Last edit: October 17, 2025, 09:30:25 PM by OutOfMemory
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.

 He is a bot... And we did give him his own day for a hot minute!!! The crazy part is we all used to yell at his creative explanations. Now we award him...He made it through to the other side!!!
K

Maybe, though...
What if JJG is the world's only truly working AI (in contrast to the machine based learning models that were hyped as "AI" for the last few years)?
From what i know about real AI, if the solution to all human problems is not the end of mankind, as it would likely propagate for, but instead lies in the controlled accumulation of the only true scarce asset in the observable universe, he should be awarded not only a forum award, but also a nobel award of economics.
 Shocked

JJG thursdays
once occurred regularly
but then they vanished


#JJGThaiku

EDIT: Or was it tuesday? Sorry if i mixed that up  Roll Eyes
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October 17, 2025, 09:28:59 PM

<snip>
*get your coins OUT of P2PK addresses if you are fortunate enough to have them.  Put them in P2SH a (3xxxx) or bech32 (bc1qxxxx) ASAP.  Personally I would avoid Taproot addresses unless you run CL/LND.
Thanks for all the valuable input there, greatly appreciated thoughts from you!

But could you elaborate a bit on the above, last point (asking for a friend ofc..)?

I agree that it can be helpful to the rest of us when guys who seem to have greater technical knowledge to ELI5 some of the seemingly technical information so that the non-technical folks can attempt to better assess some of the trade-offs that might exist in regards to how they are holding their coins and/or any of their (our) practices around safeguarding coins.

8.  Over the span of ~1 year we have moved from But even #8 considered I think there are a LOT of reasons bitcoin could not be finished yet for this cycle.
I always tell myself 30% drops are normal on the way up.

Whether the double top in 2021 is considered as a higher top (in late 2021) or not, we still had a 50% correction (from $64.5k-ish in early 2021 down to $28.7k-ish in mid-2021) in that nominally higher top that came at $69k in November 2021.

Seasoned investors may now take sides with wall street and have your say.
For wall street is a very good street.
for me to poop on.

You may well be relying on translation, and/or maybe you just have bad and/or incoherent ideas, yet you should attempt to recognize and appreciate that the ideas of your post are somewhat incoherent to the extent that any adult (non-retarded) human might actually say anything like that...

yet.. I will admit that after I read your post several times to try to figure out the "poetry" of it, I began to understand that you are trying to present a purposeful internal contradiction to say that in recent times, there has been more entrance of wall street into the bitcoin space, and that influence is not a good thing, so in that regard, we should remain skeptical or even act against wall street and/or its influence on bitcoin.

It seems that (if I have interpreted your ideas correctly?) you could have had said it better..

Those who are regretting after the price of Bitcoin touches $100k may be the same as those in this category of people who will regret when the price of Bitcoin touches $200k because they will only wait for the investment but will not invest.
This is the reason I prefer DCA or to average as the price fall. I missed because I said bitcoin price should fall, the price fell but I still think the price will fall more until I realized that I have missed again.

What that can help is DCA and other means if averaging.

You seem to have been mixing DCA and buying the dip, and there are likely times that you need to think about these ideas separately, since as
you have found out, sometimes the dips do not come as you expect them to come, so you should be careful in regards to holding back a lot of value for buying the dip, when the dip might not really matter very much, especially if you might consider bitcoin as an investment of 4-10 years or longer.

Sure, if you are considering bitcoin ONLY as a trade, then you have other problematic ways of thinking about bitcoin.

I am investing 10% of my weekly income on bitcoin, this makes it not stressful for me if the price is going down. But I have in mind to invest 30%, if bitcoin fall to $90000, I plan to invest 10% more. If bitcoin fall to $72500, I plane to invest the rest which makes it 30%. But if the price of bitcoin did not go below $100,000, I will only be investing the 10%. This has been helping me than to be waiting for the price to fall.

If you are really thinking about bitcoin as an investment rather than a trade, then you may well be holding back too much value to wait for dips that might not happen, and your holding back for dips is likely putting you into a bit of a wrong mindset when it comes to really seriously building your bitcoin investment within your first cycle or two.

Sure, in the end, you have to figure out some kind of a balance that works for you, and I am surely not against holding back some value for the possibility of buying various dips that may or may not come, yet it may be the case that you had already been able to invest during our so far 18% dip, yet if you are still holding back a decent amount of value because you think that we are going to get sub $100k or even sub $90k, then you might be putting yourself into a bit too much of a wrong mindset when it comes to your level of aggressiveness in regards to investing into bitcoin in terms of recognizing bitcoin is likely close to the best (if not the best place) that so many normal peeps are able to put value, so long as they are lucky enough to have discretionary funds, which seems to be your situation.. You seem to have a decent amount of discretionary funds that you are holding back out of the hope for greater dips that may or may not end up happening.

But, yeah, in the end, you are responsible for your own actions and you will get consequences that reflect the ways that you chose to act and/or the mindset that you put yourself into.

It literaly screams for an aggressive BTC rebound.
Agree! In November and December there will likely be a healthy rejuvenation.

It could be possible that we have to wait more than two weeks for some kind of a meaningful "rejuvenation" to play out.

Crazy how so many OGs whine like a 13 year old girl about the volatility.   Roll Eyes

It is kind of crazy, yet it is not necessarily a new thing that some members will sometimes act and react in ways that seem out of character.

There can also exist a lot of contradicting rationales in regards to why (and how it came to be) that some of the longer term bitcoiners had come into bitcoin and how they have largely held through so many years.. and the situations of longer term bitcoiners are not all the same, especially if we really look at their 9 individual factors (not that we really need to analyze the particulars of other members, even though other members might sometimes even lose touch with their own individual factors).

here is hoping some dip was purchased  today.

I got some.

I have been a bit surprised.  I had buy orders filled at 1) $120k-ish, 2) $115.5k-ish, 3) $112k-ish, 4) $108.5k-ish and 5) $105k-ish.

My next two buy orders are set for $101.5k-ish, and $98k ish - and then down every $3k until $71k, if we were to go down that far...

For sure, many of us would prefer BTC prices to go up rather than down, and surely there is no guarantee that the bottom for this particular correction is in, even though it is feeling kind of "bottom-ish" from the perspective of this here cat... but what do I know?  I have been fooled in the past, even though directionally,

bitcoin has been bery, bery good to me.....  Tongue

Crazy how so many OGs whine like a 13 year old girl about the volatility.   Roll Eyes


I hate to be overly analyzing you LFC (or maybe I don't mind doing it?), but your response seem to suggest that even you are questioning your own level of confidence in regards to your reactions in this current price correction that so far had ONLY gotten us down to a correction of 18% so far.  18% is nothing but a thing in the circles of dee cornz.

ENJOY THE PAIN!
I am also glad I stopped looking at the price... My testicular fortitude was chiseled by my titanium plate training in 2015 and again in 2018. I am, however, a bit disappointed, as I was planning for the first time in my 3rd cycle to shave some off... That being said, if we did top... then I am all ready to ride the ride yet again... I really still have a lil hope left... Guess it's time to break out the plates again... Start whacking away till I feel nothing once more!!! That's just it. If I watched the last 2 bears, why would I sell now???

You seem to be providing some of the justification for incremental shavenings along the way, since none  of us should feel that we are suffering for three-ish cycles, especially since you seem to be proclaiming or at least implying (in several of your earlier recent posts) that you have largely reached a status of having enough and/or even more than enough coins.

The craziest part is how much I dont care about the massive life-changing weekly swings that I am used to (even though nothing really changes... 1 BTC is still 1 BTC.)

I recall in around 2016 (or was it 2017?  I cannot remember exactly), I was pointing out to one of my relatives (we were riding in a car and I can recall the location, but I cannot recall the exact year) some of the wild volatility of bitcoin and even describing how my bitcoin holdings was changing by multiples within just a few days..

Maybe I will remember more as I am typing this out? 

Yet, I was more or less describing the amount that I had put into bitcoin, and I was describing how within short periods of time, the total value of the amount that I put into bitcoin was reflected in the price changes of bitcoin within short periods of time.. .like my whole amount invested would be added or subtracted from the value of my holdings within a matter of a few days. and surely the relative was impressed by the numbers, and if we think about the matter, the numbers now days are at least 20x higher than they would have had been at the time that I was engaged in such description with my relative. 

I think that my description was scaring my relative, even though I was trying to describe that I was willing to ride bitcoin's volatility no matter what direction it went, even if it were to go to zero, which just seemed difficult for my relative to feel any level of calm in reaction to my ways of characterizing what was going on in bitcoin and how I was personally affected in terms of my finances and my psychology.

There is no mindrusting here. and I have been long since the 200's!   
We all get BTC at the price we deserve
K

Your situation seems quite different from mindrust's, and he seemed to have largely been motivated by loss aversion, since his holding were right around the cost of his having had gotten into bitcoin (which was around $4k to $4,500.. and I am pretty sure that he sold around $4,500 which still allowed him to slightly be "in profits," and he was not even being irrational in his fear since he even admitted that he had gotten in over his skis in terms of his not being in a position to be able to lose whatever he had invested.. .. So I think that even though at that time (in March-ish 2020) I might have had been saying that guys should not be investing more than 25% of their quasi-liquid investment holding into bitcoin, and he said that he was much greater than 50%.    I think that by that time, he was admitting that he might have had been even 45% or more.. which he was admitting to be way over-exposed, even for his own tolerance (it was like he was investing into bitcoin with money that he needed for his expenses in the near-term foreseeable future).

here is hoping some dip was purchased  today.

I got some.
Excellent, Phil! All while others are whining and panicking!  Cry

I doubt that the panic is as great as you are making it out to be.. .It seems that we always have panicking and whining, and almost every time, the whiners and/or panic-ers are proclaiming that this is the worst time ever blah blah blah.. which surely comes off as a bit lacking in facts... so it seems that there always is going to be some level of outburst while we are correcting... and/or even if we might end up transitioning into a bear market..

It is true that sometimes the bear market starts, and then many of us (including yours truly) do not recognize and/or appreciate that we are actually in a bear market until it is a bit too late to do anything about it.. so in that regard, there may well be some truth to the expression that the one who panics first is in a better position than the one who panics at a later point in time.. .n other words, sometimes the early panic-ers end up being correct in their panic thoughts/actions.
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October 17, 2025, 09:35:26 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

…even though there still could be ways that guys can get tricked into believing that they are receiving bitcoin when they receive something else, such as bitcoin cash.. Bcash. or some other variant that is not bitcoin.. or bugs in third-party software including not actually holding their keys but instead transacting through third party verification systems that also have control over the bitcoin, when there are ways in bitcoin to self-custody and to self-verify.
well, some were actually being brainwashed into believing they are holding an alternate equivalent to btc or cheaper BTC.. Once i’m not  directly incharge of my BTC then it isn’t mine..
For a wrapped thing it is as good as we're going to get. You or we may not like those products but they have their reasons for existing otherwise why would people put 100k BTC into this?
Why would anyone prefers a tokenized version of BTC over the real BTC if not brainwashed..
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October 17, 2025, 09:35:41 PM

Hey JJG, I am out with friends. Will respond properly to your long post here tomorrow OK.

Sure.  No problem.. and no rush..

 If only all forum members could be so understanding and kind.
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October 17, 2025, 09:37:38 PM

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.

 I'm pretty sure JJG is a cop and he spends all his time in the squad car at his radar trap writing forum posts while ignoring the speeders.
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October 17, 2025, 09:41:36 PM


here is hoping some dip was purchased  today.

I got some.
This troll is muted

I doubt that the panic is as great as you are making it out to be.. .It seems that we always have panicking and whining, and almost every time, the whiners and/or panic-ers are proclaiming that this is the worst time ever blah blah blah.. which surely comes off as a bit lacking in facts... so it seems that there always is going to be some level of outburst while we are correcting... and/or even if we might end up transitioning into a bear market..

It is true that sometimes the bear market starts, and then many of us (including yours truly) do not recognize and/or appreciate that we are actually in a bear market until it is a bit too late to do anything about it.. so in that regard, there may well be some truth to the expression that the one who panics first is in a better position than the one who panics at a later point in time.. .n other words, sometimes the early panic-ers end up being correct in their panic thoughts/actions.

While LFC (afair) timed the top pretty well in 2021.
However, there's two types of panic: mindrust-panic and blow off-panic.
But on the other hand, mindrust marked the bottom pretty well, while LFC marked the last cycle top also pretty well. (in case i really remember that correctly).
Some might say mindrust panic isn't particularly useful (at least to mindrust's lil selfie) but one can consider marking the bottom as some type of success, too.
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October 17, 2025, 09:41:43 PM

Hey JJG, I am out with friends. Will respond properly to your long post here tomorrow OK.
JJG always make the conversation academic in nature, a special kind of forum user.
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October 17, 2025, 09:48:31 PM

Hey JJG, I am out with friends. Will respond properly to your long post here tomorrow OK.
JJG always make the conversation academic in nature, a special kind of forum user.

Simplicity is inexistent. Complexity is real. (EDIT: and of infinite - 1 granularity)
The former is only a primitive abstraction to meet a human's need to control.

#my2cents
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October 17, 2025, 09:54:03 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

…even though there still could be ways that guys can get tricked into believing that they are receiving bitcoin when they receive something else, such as bitcoin cash.. Bcash. or some other variant that is not bitcoin.. or bugs in third-party software including not actually holding their keys but instead transacting through third party verification systems that also have control over the bitcoin, when there are ways in bitcoin to self-custody and to self-verify.
well, some were actually being brainwashed into believing they are holding an alternate equivalent to btc or cheaper BTC.. Once i’m not  directly incharge of my BTC then it isn’t mine..
Part of the job of the MSM is to spread fear so that people will doubt the main things and believe in mirage so that the rich will hold and control the real wealth. If the MSM do not spread fear, people who are afraid of Bitcoin volatility will not give their money to someone to buy the same Bitcoin and then give them something else.
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October 17, 2025, 10:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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October 17, 2025, 10:03:43 PM

…even though there still could be ways that guys can get tricked into believing that they are receiving bitcoin when they receive something else, such as bitcoin cash.. Bcash. or some other variant that is not bitcoin.. or bugs in third-party software including not actually holding their keys but instead transacting through third party verification systems that also have control over the bitcoin, when there are ways in bitcoin to self-custody and to self-verify.
well, some were actually being brainwashed into believing they are holding an alternate equivalent to btc or cheaper BTC.. Once i’m not  directly incharge of my BTC then it isn’t mine..
Part of the job of the MSM is to spread fear so that people will doubt the main things and believe in mirage so that the rich will hold and control the real wealth. If the MSM do not spread fear, people who are afraid of Bitcoin volatility will not give their money to someone to buy the same Bitcoin and then give them something else.


Job?
That's a valid interpretatiion, but the reason for it is that we're triggered by primal instincts, which in turn boosts our awareness.
We tend to turn our attention to attractive sensations, so fear, sex and joy are very strong manipulators and that's what MSM mostly profits from.
It's not that they are intentionally mean. OK, most of them at least.

I'd like to lay that out in more detail, but i hope you got the point (and it's also a bit too OT).
I also gotta catch some sleep.
#GN
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October 17, 2025, 10:21:12 PM
Last edit: October 17, 2025, 10:32:12 PM by BitHodlers

well, some were actually being brainwashed into believing they are holding an alternate equivalent to btc or cheaper BTC.. Once i’m not  directly incharge of my BTC then it isn’t mine..
Sure, but we can't make general statements about these products like that. If one is trying to be transparent and has a custodian you can't treat it as a random and no name wrap service. In the case of wBTC it does not advertise as anything other than an entry to DeFi on other chains I think, which is what it is. If we treat them all equally then we risk pushing people into even worse alternatives that will get them scammed for sure. We'd only be doing more harm, not helping at all..

For a wrapped thing it is as good as we're going to get. You or we may not like those products but they have their reasons for existing otherwise why would people put 100k BTC into this?
Why would anyone prefers a tokenized version of BTC over the real BTC if not brainwashed..
Rich people have many more options for their BTC than the average person. Can you put BTC as collateral in favorable conditions like Saylor can? No..Can you get any yield other than giving it directly to companies like Celsius? There are some people that want to have access and use these things. Yelling at them won't change anything about it. If we want to change something about it we can merely try to provide better options. However, given how BTC is I don't think we will see much better solutions to this anytime soon. I am not saying that people should use this, I have never had any kind of wrapped BTC and won't but we need not be mean to all these people.


It is important to remember that generally you can't change masses of people. You can change individuals but it often requires a lot of effort. If there is a demand for some thing even if it is wrong, someone will supply it somehow. No need to orchestrate these users, we should help them navigating the fields. You can make a rank of holding tiers and stuff like that, even if some comparisons would be hard. How exactly would you rank a Blackrock ETF compared to a Blackrock wBTC? Which one would be worse than the other and why?

Rank 1: Bitcoin in your own wallet - by far the best.
Rank 2: Something else..


Something in this direction.
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October 17, 2025, 10:34:59 PM

I admire JayJuanGee dedication and his tenacious undertaking having so much free time making large post day-in-day-out for years.

This guy deserves a forum award.

 He is a bot... And we did give him his own day for a hot minute!!! The crazy part is we all used to yell at his creative explanations. Now we award him...He made it through to the other side!!!
K

is he really a bot. I do suspect he is using an ai of sorts but that there is a person in that ai not just ai
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October 17, 2025, 10:48:57 PM



Agree! In November and December there will likely be a healthy rejuvenation.

It could be possible that we have to wait more than two weeks for some kind of a meaningful "rejuvenation" to play out.

Crazy how so many OGs whine like a 13 year old girl about the volatility.   Roll Eyes

It is kind of crazy, yet it is not necessarily a new thing that some members will sometimes act and react in ways that seem out of character.



Excellent, Phil! All while others are whining and panicking!  Cry

I doubt that the panic is as great as you are making it out to be.. .It seems that we always have panicking and whining, and almost every time, the whiners and/or panic-ers are proclaiming that this is the worst time ever blah blah blah.. which surely comes off as a bit lacking in facts... so it seems that there always is going to be some level of outburst while we are correcting... and/or even if we might end up transitioning into a bear market..

It is true that sometimes the bear market starts, and then many of us (including yours truly) do not recognize and/or appreciate that we are actually in a bear market until it is a bit too late to do anything about it.. so in that regard, there may well be some truth to the expression that the one who panics first is in a better position than the one who panics at a later point in time.. .n other words, sometimes the early panic-ers end up being correct in their panic thoughts/actions.

Yes, Jay - I understand and agree!
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