$ell.
BTCuy.
No true bitcoiner would sell before buying, so I have my eyes on you, yslyv.
[edited out]
I prefer dca and hodl along with buy the dip and hodl.
Look deep, deep within on the inside, philipma1957.
Are you sure that those are your actual in-practice preferences? rather than short-term stated preferences?
I'm almost panicking is the how it's going to end? WTF
It's my turn to witness a full bull run the bull is running backwards
Worst take ever. Or worst joke ever. You are aware this is the worst period to sell your coins? Or are you just being ignorant?
In as much as I'm leaning on Bitcoin going bearish, I wont forget what happened in late 2020 and again around mid-2023.
In 2020 it went from $10k to over $40k and in mid-2023 it bounced back from $25k to $45k after everyone made their conclusion by turning bearish.
Might be ya first cycle to experience bull run but it wont be ya last.
Aye hodl the line, as we have done since forever! HHHHHHHHOOOOODDDDLLLLLL!!!!!
This is the time to be contrarian, feeling rebellious lfg!
You ONLY HODL if you have enough (or more than enough) or you have run out of money to buy.
Otherwise, it seems to me that you BUYDL.
The reason I want to solve this problem is the hurdle rate of almost any sort of loan is easily overcome by the BTC CAGR. Of course considering it keeps going etc etc...
Combine this with the ability to buy puts against IBIT, say... make the opportunity very appealing.
Also food for thought: consider that utilizing ANY fiat<->coin financial services creates unique markers for future confiscation, repression, imprisonment (or lauding?!) by relevant authorities for whatever reasoning (guilty before proven innocent/CAF), associated or unrelated mafiosos, or local barnyard flavored bandits- even if you "sold it all" whereas paper or derivatives activites do not. Moreover, coins fully untainted by serf identity controls are treated with even greater scrutiny by fiat finance, and are both more valuable and ripe for seizure. Ain't nobody showing up to steal your house deed simply cuz you lived there 20 years. It sounds crazy for polite first world-dom, but one need look no further than property rights re-norming, most recently ca1933 yadayada
You (asUHWEceyc) might need to explain a wee bit MOAR better what you mean by ca1933.
At the same time, so far in bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA continues to move up, and historically, whenever we ended up hitting the 200-WMA with the price, it tended to be 6 months or longer after the ATH, and those ATH's had tended to be several multiples higher than the 200-WMA by the time that the ATH was in, so in 2017 the high spot price was around 14x higher than the 200-WMA and in late 2021, the high was around 4x higher than the 200-WMA (the early 2021 price was around 4.5x higher than the 200-WMA).
Another thing is that the BTC price did not tend to go below the 200-WMA, except for flash crash situations, except for the period between June 2022 until October 2023, in which we spent a lot of time below the 200-WMA while the 200-WMA moved from $22k at the beginning of that 16 month period and ended slightly higher than $27k at the end of that 16 month period, and of course the worst of the BTC prices ended up being right around 35% lower than the 200-WMA in November 2022.
This cycle, so far, we have not had BTC prices that have gotten much higher than 2.5x higher than the 200-WMA... so the top has not been so extreme to justify as great of a correction, even though surely shenanigans can happen, so I am not ruling out great levels of correction, even though it seems a bit improbable to be expecting those levels of correction - especially guys selling and expecting to be able to buy back at those kinds of low prices.
It is probably healthy for you to not let your expectations get to high, but you still have to calculate that the 200-WMA is a moving target, and in order to have 20% below the 200-WMA to equal $43k-ish, you have to go with today's 200-WMA, and do you really think that the odds are very good that the BTC price would go shooting straight down within a very short period of time in order to make that 20% below the 200-WMA as feasible? You are describing a quite outrageous scenario, even though surely I still have buy orders down to about $32k. .so yeah, maybe yu could refer to me as a bit overprotective, too.. I just hate running out of money when the price goes shooting down
I might even be willing to give you odds on anything below $53k... even though my current outstanding proposal for a 50/50 bet is that the price is never going below $80k, and I would probably like consession that I had won the bet if the BTC price goes above $300k before the end of 2027. .
Still not betting but yes o consider the 200wma as a moving target to the upside, I’m not as good at trying to guess the future wma prices but atm seems to be going up about 250/month so I think -20% is a catch all to that as well a bit of when we did dip under it for periods of time.
Of course, you probably have seen
my latest fuck you status chart that attempts to project the 200-WMA into the future, and surely my end of November 2025 projection of $68,999 seems quite unlikely to be even close to reachable since we ONLY have around 44 days remaining, and the 200-WMA has ONLY been going up slightly less than $50 per day, and I had anticipated slightly higher prices.. so instead of $250 per month (as you mentioned), the 200 WMA is going up more in the ballpark of $2,500 per month, more or less...so even if we were to get slightly more than $50 per day for the remainder of the 44 days of the period for my chart, that will ONLY put us around $56,200 at or around the end of November...
Nonetheless, even though the slope of the 200WMA curve might be becoming less steep, yet it still seems to be a decently strong way to project value, since it is a delayed indicator that largely would allow for accounting for potential downward moves in the bitcoin price that would justify making adjustments to the withdrawal rate based on witnessing BTC prices going below the 200-WMA, if that might be a sign to reduce withdrawing bitcoin during those kinds of periods and/or perhaps to HODL or to even buy bitcoin during those kinds of periods, to the extent that we might not lose faith in bitcoin or consider that bitcoin is dying as an investment asset, which in those cases, we should hopefully have some diversification into some other areas that might be able to hold and/or to grow value, to the extent that any alternative assets might exist under that kind of a scenario.
Anyhow, even if you are considering 20% below the current 200-WMA as your current (oh shit!!!) target, you still need to have some kind of an expectation that the 200-WMA curve is ongoingly growing and it is quite likely going to grow way more than $250 per month, perhaps worser case scenarios would be something like $1k per month. Perhaps? perhaps?
If I consider figuring the bottom this is definitely one area I’m more bearish. I’m still a firm believer we are still in a 4yr cycle, I als don’t think we have made the Ath yet for this cycle so am expecting the 200wma to increase at a faster rate.
For me, I have a lot of difficulties anticipating some kind of a correction that is greater than 50%, especially during the bull portion of the cycle in the event that there has not been any kind of a grand exponential rise, even using LFC's representations of less than a 2x from top to top... so it becomes difficult to see that we have been going through any kind of outrageous UP that would justify some kind of a meaningful correction that accounts for the overexuberance in UP that we have not really been having, and even if we might say that we had a bit of an overexuberance in our experiencing an ATH before the 2024 halvening, that seems to have already worked itself out with our largely staying stagnant between March-ish of 2024 until more or less the November 2024 trumpening pumpening.. which also ONLY got us around 60% (best case scenario) in the first leg before experiencing a correction that nearly took away all of that price appreciation before our resuming UPPity around May 2025.
You can look at historical 200-WMA price appreciations, and even in the lowest part of the November 2022 dip, mostly the 200-WMA was still going up around $10 a day (
you can look for yourself by inputing various dates and comparing one day to the next), and so yeah, in terms of dollar terms the 200-WMA will likely continue to increase in the amount it goes up per day, even though as a percentage it is likely ongoingly going down in its appreciation rate to perhaps reach something in the ballpark of 2% to 6% per year.. or who knows, since those kinds of diminished levels are likely quite a while into the future.
You are right tho I might being too pessimistic but hopefully Btc surprises me!
Similar to you, I think it is better to try to be (project) somewhat conservative(ly) in order to be surprised to the upside rather than being surprised to the downside...and yeah, also hopefully whatever systems that we have in place for our own management and/or liquidation (sustainably withdrawing?) of our BTC holdings will also attempt to account for various downside BTC price scenarios that are quite a bit below our base case.
Gold down
Silver down
BTC down
could this mean USD is up?
Hahahaha, philip... It is an illusion.
Don't get distracted by your short-term (smarter than everyone else) perceptions of valuations, even if technically, you are correct?
how can this be?
In the short-term, all kinds of deceptive shit happens, which is part of the reason to both zoom out and to try to have at least a 4-year time horizon for any new coins that you buy.. even though you likely have difficulties (challenges) thinking beyond one calendar year.
Is orange man making a stronger dollar?
Not intentionally. or least, there is a kind of dynamic that is the dollar milk-shake theory in which all of the value from the various fiats are likely flowing into the dollar no matter what that orange-headed twat does, so in that sense, he can do almost anything and the dollar is still the healthiest looking horse in the glue-factory.. while at the same time, the ultimate final boss is bitcoin, so even if value flows into the dollar, the dollar is still debasing while bitcoin is holding its own in terms of the ability to buy goods and/or services and/or other ways that we might choose to spend or to hold our coins.
Will the fed up rates by .5 next week?
instead of expected cut of .25?
That does not seem logical. The more logical outcome seems that they would either do what the market expects or perhaps just hold off (or refuse) to do an additional cut, and just hold the rates flat.
Holy moly what to do what is the solution.
Hodl is the answer.
Sure.. HODL... and/or buy more for those who have not yet reached actual overaccumulation status without making mistakes in regard to their assessment of such overaccumulation status.
It does not seem to be any kind of a major dilemma.. or at least, it should be any kind of a major dilemma. We have had a max correction of about 18% so far (with the current $103,530 low), and right now, as I type this post, we are bouncing around $106,760, which would be about 15.5% from the top... Sure it might not be the greatest bottom, yet anyone who has assessed themselves as not having enough bitcoin, it may well be a good idea to continue to buy, to the extent that they have not run out of money to continue to buy.
better yet dca some coin and buy some dip and hodl both
Fair enough, even though surely guys who have been DCAing might ONLY have so much money in their budget in terms of how much pay and/or discretionary income that they might have, and/or they might also ONLY have so much extra funds for buying dips. which tends to not really be any kind of a major problem for newbies, since it can take one or two or even more than two cycles to really build up a bitcoin holdings for most people who are not really in positions to front load their bitcoin investment and/or to draw from other places to put that value into bitcoin.
.
this is not advice but it is what I am doing.
also look at this below
https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 919535 (12 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 111.5050% (240 / 215.24 expected, 24.76 ahead)Previous Difficulty: 150839487445890.5
Current Difficulty: 146716052770107.5
Next Difficulty: between 150789396373281 and 166843622468364
Next Difficulty Change: between +2.7763% and +13.7187%
Previous Retarget: Yesterday at 1:23 AM (-2.7337%)
Next Retarget (earliest): October 28, 2025 at 2:43 PM (in 11d 1h 27m 32s)
Next Retarget (latest): October 29, 2025 at 5:38 PM (in 12d 4h 21m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 12d 13h 19m 54s and 13d 16h 14m 13s
You should already know that it is problematic to draw too many inferences from those kinds of numbers when we are ONLY 1 day-ish after the previous difficulty adjustment... but sure, your points of ongoing hashrate being directed at bitcoin mining remains a bit of a bullish sign, even though you likely recall that I am not much of a fan of any theory suggesting that hashrate leads the BTC price.
.....but I'm not an economist like ole Jerome. If I were, I would have recommended a rate cut all the way back to the 3.5% neutral level a loooong time ago.
That's why we have Jerome doing the job rather than uie-pooie.
No homo.
Stay in your lane. Your specialties seem to be hats and sure, other various random quasi-useful things like sampling the best places to buy coffee or prognosticating if there are going to be ions
(vibrations) in the air or not and/or perhaps identifying various grammar mistakes in these here parts and various other quasi-random thingies.. besides just HODLing dee cornz
like a pro.
Poll
