Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

@JayJuanGee

Let’s go for 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026 and for 0.001 Bitcoin. It’s just a bit of fun but let’s see who wins. I would happily pay a lot more money than that to see a nice shiny all time high because obviously I’d be making a hell of a lot more money that way

I’m a man of my word and will obviously pay out if I lose the bet but you know that any way

I already lost a bet to JJG so won't go for more. But it will be interesting to see outcome of this bet, as you both are a good match to each other in terms of knowledge and analysis.

May the best one win. Good luck

 

[LoyceV]

There are fake golds in circulation, but I’ve never heard of anyone getting fake BTC in their wallet .. unless it never arrived in their wallet .

Fake Bitcoin is very common. Many exchanges now have about 5 different withdrawal-options when you click "Bitcoin", and only one of them is real Bitcoin. Many people fall for that.

This is not the correct comparison. Wrapped Bitcoin are not fake Bitcoin as long as they are backed by locked in Bitcoin and always redeemable.

"Wrapped" Bitcoin is to Bitcoin what paper gold is to gold: controlled by someone else, and you can't even check if it exists. And if you lose the keys, the creator of those "wrapped" coins gets richer instead of this:

Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more.  Think of it as a donation to everyone.

Sounds good, except that I am pretty sure you can verify it but you have to trust BitGo that they do own it. Here is a list of addresses. https://wbtc.network/transparency. I don't think there is a decentralized way of proving this. Or do we consider BitGo now an untrustworthy company?

"Be your own bank" and "Verify, don't trust" means I don't have to care whether or not "BitGo" is untrustworthy. I can afford not to care, as I have nothing to do with them.

You or we may not like those products but they have their reasons for existing otherwise why would people put 100k BTC into this?

That's a very weak argument. Greed, FOMO and ignorance have made people throw money at shitcoins, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, tokens and whatever shit they came up with for over a decade now. Some people got rich out of it, many people lost their Bitcoins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Sounds like an interesting bet.
Personally, if i was a betting man (I am not), i would wager on the @JJG side.

Additionally, it would be interesting to see a WO poll with these time and ATH conditions, wouldn't it?

I'm not a betting man either. But this is not a bet -- it's free money for Jay, fueled by LFC's eagerness to sell.

We will have an ATH by the end of Q1/2026 -- that's my guesstimate.

You are even more bullish than me.  Remember you were saying ATH in September and other variations of that?  hahahaha.. even writing haikus dedicated to such "artistic" visions.

[...]

Well, I guess it depends on the individual, but for me, both coiners and nocoiners low coiners should feel good about the current Bitcoin price.

-- Nocoiners Low coiners should be happy to be able to buy (slightly) lower than earlier.
-- Coiners (esp. WOers) should be ecstatic that the price is at 6 digits and expected to rise significantly in the long term.

To whine about spot price not constantly rising, or not peaking at a specific pipe-dream value that one has put in their head, does not make much sense to me, sorry...

Not being salty, just trying to make you guys realize and appreciate how lucky you are.


Edit: replaced nocoiners with low coiners. Thanks Jay, you're right, nocoiners never buy!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LoyceV]

To whine about spot price not constantly rising, or not peaking at a specific pipe-dream value that one has put in their head, does not make much sense to me, sorry...

Not being salty, just trying to make you guys realize and appreciate how lucky you are.

I can be lucky and cry in my corner at the same time It's what comes with "fear: 100%" and "greed: 100%"

[fillippone]

What's this I'm reading about people selling corn to buy gold?

Stupid bastards.

Sad fucks confirmed.

Gold is going north only for one reason:



China.

China is buying Gold, transitioning out of Treasuries.
Debasement trade for now is only a narrative: never saw a debasement trading without steepening (Long end Yields going up massively).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Distinctin]

Just saw the news that the sent around 65,000 “nudge letters” to people they suspect didn’t report their crypto gains. They got the data straight from exchanges like Binance, and by 2026 they’ll have access to even more info under that new Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which will let them share and collect crypto data from other countries.

It’s kind of wild if you think about it they can now trace who’s been trading, selling, or earning from crypto even without cashing out to a bank. Basically, they’re warning people ahead of time to sort out their taxes before they start investigating deeper.

Makes me wonder, do you think tax authorities around the world will eventually start doing the same thing tracking exchange data and sending out letters to people who don’t declare their crypto income? It really looks like this might be the start of a global crackdown on crypto taxes.

Curious to hear your thoughts, especially from those trading through foreign exchanges or holding coins long-term.

[bitserve]

Just saw the news that the sent around 65,000 “nudge letters” to people they suspect didn’t report their crypto gains. They got the data straight from exchanges like Binance, and by 2026 they’ll have access to even more info under that new Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which will let them share and collect crypto data from other countries.

It’s kind of wild if you think about it they can now trace who’s been trading, selling, or earning from crypto even without cashing out to a bank. Basically, they’re warning people ahead of time to sort out their taxes before they start investigating deeper.

Makes me wonder, do you think tax authorities around the world will eventually start doing the same thing tracking exchange data and sending out letters to people who don’t declare their crypto income? It really looks like this might be the start of a global crackdown on crypto taxes.

Curious to hear your thoughts, especially from those trading through foreign exchanges or holding coins long-term.

You must have been living under a rock for a very long time.

Ie. In Spain we started receiving those kind of letters since more than 5 years ago. And probably in many other countries too.

Of course you are (and always were) supposed to declare all your crypto trades (not necessarily involving banks nor fiat counterpart), earnings, mining, etc. With or without specific individual warning.

Nothing new to see here.

[Distinctin]

Just saw the news that the sent around 65,000 “nudge letters” to people they suspect didn’t report their crypto gains. They got the data straight from exchanges like Binance, and by 2026 they’ll have access to even more info under that new Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which will let them share and collect crypto data from other countries.

It’s kind of wild if you think about it they can now trace who’s been trading, selling, or earning from crypto even without cashing out to a bank. Basically, they’re warning people ahead of time to sort out their taxes before they start investigating deeper.

Makes me wonder, do you think tax authorities around the world will eventually start doing the same thing tracking exchange data and sending out letters to people who don’t declare their crypto income? It really looks like this might be the start of a global crackdown on crypto taxes.

Curious to hear your thoughts, especially from those trading through foreign exchanges or holding coins long-term.

You must have been living under a rock for a very long time.

Ie. In Spain we started receiving those kind of letters around 5 years ago. And probably in many other countries too.

Of course you are (and always were) supposed to declare all your crypto trades (not necessarily involving banks nor fiat counterpart), earnings, mining, etc. With or without specific individual warning.

Nothing new to see here.

Honestly, I haven’t received any letter about this yet. I’m from the Philippines, so I guess this is still quite new for other countries too. But thanks for sharing now I know your government is enforcing taxes much stricter than ours.

Though I have a feeling it’ll eventually happen here too. But here’s what I’ve been wondering they say the government got information from Binance, right? How can the PH government even request that kind of data when they already banned Binance? Looks like that ban actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise after all.

[bitserve]

Just saw the news that the sent around 65,000 “nudge letters” to people they suspect didn’t report their crypto gains. They got the data straight from exchanges like Binance, and by 2026 they’ll have access to even more info under that new Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which will let them share and collect crypto data from other countries.

It’s kind of wild if you think about it they can now trace who’s been trading, selling, or earning from crypto even without cashing out to a bank. Basically, they’re warning people ahead of time to sort out their taxes before they start investigating deeper.

Makes me wonder, do you think tax authorities around the world will eventually start doing the same thing tracking exchange data and sending out letters to people who don’t declare their crypto income? It really looks like this might be the start of a global crackdown on crypto taxes.

Curious to hear your thoughts, especially from those trading through foreign exchanges or holding coins long-term.

You must have been living under a rock for a very long time.

Ie. In Spain we started receiving those kind of letters around 5 years ago. And probably in many other countries too.

Of course you are (and always were) supposed to declare all your crypto trades (not necessarily involving banks nor fiat counterpart), earnings, mining, etc. With or without specific individual warning.

Nothing new to see here.

Honestly, I haven’t received any letter about this yet. I’m from the Philippines, so I guess this is still quite new for other countries too. But thanks for sharing now I know your government is enforcing taxes much stricter than ours.

Though I have a feeling it’ll eventually happen here too. But here’s what I’ve been wondering they say the government got information from Binance, right? How can the PH government even request that kind of data when they already banned Binance? Looks like that ban actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise after all.

Well, they still COULD request it... for example if there is some investigation and a Judge signs the petition. And Binance will decide if they need to provide the information or not.

At least it looks like, in your country, there is no automatic info sharing between Binance and your treasury. But things can (and probably will... the same it happenned in most other countries) change in the future.

In Europe all regulated exchanges have recently started automatically sharing the information with most countries... But the obligation to declare, even if they didn't have access to the info, always existed.

Years ago, the first letters many people received were based on info provided by the banks. What they did is FORCE the banks report ANY transaction (incoming or outcoming) with well known foreign exchange bank accounts. They didn't have the specific info of the trades you could (or not) have really done in the exchanges. In fact, people which had not sell (nor traded in any way) in that time frame but had sent funds from their bank accounts to an exchange to buy also received the generic "warning" letters while in that case there were nothing to declare... but they didn't really know.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

Just saw the news that the sent around 65,000 “nudge letters” to people they suspect didn’t report their crypto gains. They got the data straight from exchanges
[...]
Curious to hear your thoughts, especially from those trading through foreign exchanges or holding coins long-term.

in the USA (land of the free) coinbase (possibly others) has been doing reporting to the IRS for like a decade.

[Distinctin]

Honestly, I haven’t received any letter about this yet. I’m from the Philippines, so I guess this is still quite new for other countries too. But thanks for sharing now I know your government is enforcing taxes much stricter than ours.

Though I have a feeling it’ll eventually happen here too. But here’s what I’ve been wondering they say the government got information from Binance, right? How can the PH government even request that kind of data when they already banned Binance? Looks like that ban actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise after all.

Well, they still COULD request it... for example if there is some investigation and a Judge signs the petition. And Binance will decide if they need to provide the information or not.

At least it looks like, in your country, there is no automatic info sharing between Binance and your treasury. But things can (and probably will... the same it happenned in most other countries) change in the future.

In Europe all regulated exchanges have recently started automatically sharing the information with most countries... But the obligation to declare, even if they didn't have access to the info, always existed.

The government can request info from exchanges, but only from those they actually regulate. And here’s the funny part the licensed exchanges in our country probably cover just 10% (maybe a bit more) of the crypto traders here. The rest avoid them because of the crazy high spreads, which are really unfavorable for trading.

Even though Binance isn’t licensed here, most of us still use it and just take the risk. Honestly, I kinda hope Binance doesn’t cooperate or bother getting a license, so at least we won’t get tracked and taxed.

in the USA (land of the free) coinbase (possibly others) has been doing reporting to the IRS for like a decade.

if you reported it all through other means like IRS form 8945 (? too lazy to look) youre fine.

It’s a general principle that we should pay taxes on any income, but there’s still no clear regulation on crypto taxes here, and enforcement is really not that strict. That’s why most of us don’t even bother paying.

I don’t think anyone has actually received a letter from the tax authorities yet they seem more focused on other sources of revenue for now.

[AlcoHoDL]

We're Wall Observers.
Cheer on pumps, then whine on dumps.
A thread of wonder!

But, riddle me this.
Should dumps really worry us?
Don't we know better?

He sold when it dipped,
Hoping to buy back lower.
His mind was rusty.

He may be the past,
But I see some rust in here.
In minds, not in pipes!

An ATH bet.
But regardless of who wins,
We are all winners!

Winners and whiners.
I'm pretty sure Jay will win,
And whiners will whine...

The Wall Observer.
A thread of awe and wonder,
Where anything goes!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[BitHodlers]

"Be your own bank" and "Verify, don't trust" means I don't have to care whether or not "BitGo" is untrustworthy. I can afford not to care, as I have nothing to do with them.

You or we may not like those products but they have their reasons for existing otherwise why would people put 100k BTC into this?

That's a very weak argument. Greed, FOMO and ignorance have made people throw money at shitcoins, ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, tokens and whatever shit they came up with for over a decade now. Some people got rich out of it, many people lost their Bitcoins.

We are not comparing wBTC to BTC. There are too many posts, check my post history if you want to understand the complete arguments I have made about this topic. :] I'm putting it to rest.

Just saw the news that the sent around 65,000 “nudge letters” to people they suspect didn’t report their crypto gains. They got the data straight from exchanges like Binance, and by 2026 they’ll have access to even more info under that new Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which will let them share and collect crypto data from other countries.

It’s kind of wild if you think about it they can now trace who’s been trading, selling, or earning from crypto even without cashing out to a bank. Basically, they’re warning people ahead of time to sort out their taxes before they start investigating deeper.

Makes me wonder, do you think tax authorities around the world will eventually start doing the same thing tracking exchange data and sending out letters to people who don’t declare their crypto income? It really looks like this might be the start of a global crackdown on crypto taxes.

Curious to hear your thoughts, especially from those trading through foreign exchanges or holding coins long-term.

The mistakes lies with using exchanges and doing KYC. I mean what did you expect would happen? This data would never be used against people or that it would be deleted after a while? If you strictly refuse to do KYC anywhere and stick to P2P trades that involve cash then there is no data that can be used against you. Remember folks, regularly delete your spending wallets.  

What's this I'm reading about people selling corn to buy gold?

Stupid bastards.

Sad fucks confirmed.

Gold is going north only for one reason:

url=https://x.com/zhao_dashuai/status/1976271430900666669

China.

China is buying Gold, transitioning out of Treasuries.
Debasement trade for now is only a narrative: never saw a debasement trading without steepening (Long end Yields going up massively).

Please not another COVID level event so soon.

[bitserve]

The mistakes lies with using exchanges and doing KYC. I mean what did you expect would happen? This data would never be used against people or that it would be deleted after a while? If you strictly refuse to do KYC anywhere and stick to P2P trades that involve cash then there is no data that can be used against you. Remember folks, regularly delete your spending wallets.  

Only P2P involving CASH? Impractical because:

1- That would require to meet in person with someone else, with all the risks that involves.

2- Even if you did accept that risk... in many countries (euro mainly) there are limits on how much cash you can use for a purchase (product, service, whatever). In Spain it is 1000€... yeah, no matter how much cash you might manage to have... you could not buy (in cash) anything with a price of 1000€ or above.

So, basically, they already covered all the (remaining) corners.