Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I'm willing to draw an MS paint picture of a friendly spider for everyone for FREE.

I want this.

Your wish is my command

Wow, I guess you really do get what you pay for.

He could have drawn a spider with 6 legs but he drew one with 8 legs. It is good value in my opinion. I like it.

Come on, don't be picky - I like it! Thx!

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[Blue]

2730 on huobi --> pump incoming

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

2730 on huobi --> pump incoming

Nah, I think we are going to repeat for the nth time the same routine - stagnation, then a bigger order starts price fall. Getting boring, actually, and amazingly repetitive so far.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

2730 on huobi --> pump incoming

Dump? 

Yeah, I think he meant dump.

[Blue]

2730 on huobi --> pump incoming

Dump? 

Yeah, I think he meant dump.

ok , bump then.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday May 09

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-05-09, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2731 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 440 USD





[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/08 was good (S = 0.0026, W = 0.870), however it was way off the assumed trend (straight line defined by two previous points).  There is no plausible trend fitting the last three points, so the least unreasonable option is the straight line defined by the last two.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/07, A = 2755, B = -12.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.20 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.21 today (May/07), but 6.16 yesterday, and 6.23, 6.18, 6.16, 6.17 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-05-07, 21:51 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-05-08, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~21 hours later)

Punished again for being bull:

Huobi's predicted price: 2838 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2743 CNY
Error: 95 CNY (~15 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 460 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 442 USD
Error: 18 USD
 
NOTE: "Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities."
  -- Voltaire

EDIT: fixed the explanation of the prediction.

[Krabby]

Oh wow.
Almost looked like that pump had some support for a second.

[Blue]

there you go [ LTC ]

... and then BTC

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

2730 on huobi --> pump incoming

Dump? 

Yeah, I think he meant dump.

ok , bump then.

Lol, you were right we also had a pump. Mini-pump so far.

[JorgeStolfi]

The news - on coin desk and such - make it sound as if there is an international coalition of Mt. Gox. victims who thinks this taking over is best for them.

And as usual Coindesk is totally uncritical.
[/quote]

But perhaps a couple of biggest holders want to divide these 200,000 BTC among them, at the cost of smaller holders like you ...

Right.  According to some rumors, one of the largest accounts in the leaked MtGOX database was Mark's.  Will he get his share of the 200'000 too? (in a liquidation, the owners have the lowest priority.)  According to those rumors, other large accounts belonged to close friends of Mark.

By the way, no one knows who leaked that database and whether it is true.   It may have been doctored with the intent of stealing a large part of the remaining coins.

Suppose for example that the sum of all BTC account balances was actually 400'000, and the database was altered by adding another 400'000 to the accounts of certain clients, bringing the total to 800'000 BTC.  If the remaining 200 000 BTC were distributed according to the true database, each ordinary client would get 50% of his balance.  With the faked database, he will get only 25% of his balance, while those special clients would get to split 100'000 BTC that were never theirs.

The only hope to get the truth is through a police investigation.   If Sunlot takes over, no one will ever know what really happened inside MtGOX, and no one will know whether the payments (if any) were fair.

(I actually don't care about whether the clients will lose those 200'000 BTC too to "MtGOX 2.0", but like any sane person I get very upset when I learn that scammers and thieves got away, free and rich.)

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

The news - on coin desk and such - make it sound as if there is an international coalition of Mt. Gox. victims who thinks this taking over is best for them.

And as usual Coindesk is totally uncritical.

But perhaps a couple of biggest holders want to divide these 200,000 BTC among them, at the cost of smaller holders like you ...

Right.  According to some rumors, one of the largest accounts in the leaked MtGOX database was Mark's.  Will he get his share of the 200'000 too? (in a liquidation, the owners have the lowest priority.)  According to those rumors, other large accounts belonged to close friends of Mark.

By the way, no one knows who leaked that database and whether it is true.   It may have been doctored with the intent of stealing a large part of the remaining coins.

Suppose for example that the sum of all BTC account balances was actually 400'000, and the database was altered by adding another 400'000 to the accounts of certain clients, bringing the total to 800'000 BTC.  If the remaining 200 000 BTC were distributed according to the true database, each ordinary client would get 50% of his balance.  With the faked database, he will get only 25% of his balance, while those special clients would get to split 100'000 BTC that were never theirs.

The only hope to get the truth is through a police investigation.   If Sunlot takes over, no one will ever know what really happened inside MtGOX, and no one will know whether the payments (if any) were fair.

(I actually don't care about whether the clients will lose those 200'000 BTC too to "MtGOX 2.0", but like any sane person I get very upset when I learn that scammers and thieves got away, free and rich.)
[/quote]

OK, O probably did not phrase it well - but US court (based in Chicago, iirc) - agreed preliminarily to this proposal and lawyers representing some US customers joined with some lawyers representing "internationals" to try to convince Japanese courts.

Yeah, friends of Mark's hypothesis make sense - all simply well connected and very wealthy bitcoiners.  ASAIK the list is (mostly) legit, when it was published many people on reddit confirmed their holdings. But you are right that few accounts could have inflated amount of holding. And taking into account lack of any proper accounting at Gox - and them publicly admitting to processing transactions manually because it is faster - it is probably possible to fake such holdings. Although true computer experts - who would look at the date of making records, deleted data on drives etc should be able to figure out the truth. If they seized Gox computers in time, that is - before the crucial hard drives went physically missing...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[simmo77]

I'm willing to draw an MS paint picture of a friendly spider for everyone for FREE.

Assuming this was the reference.  http://www.27bslash6.com/overdue.html

[gentlemand]

Hmm. I hadn't come across that before unless it was subliminally absorbed. His is far more professional. I think mine has more warmth.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hyphymikey]

It seems boredum is ruling current sentiment, perhaps this might help, enjoy the show.

Joe Rogan Experience #490 - Andreas Antonopoulos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnhGlgCm4MU

I love the "Mark K with his dumb fat face, what a fucking dummy" part.

[JorgeStolfi]

I'm willing to draw an MS paint picture of a friendly spider for everyone for FREE.

Assuming this was the reference.  http://www.27bslash6.com/overdue.html

Obviously not, that one is a hybrid between an insect and an arachnid. 

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Hmm. I hadn't come across that before unless it was subliminally absorbed. His is far more professional. I think mine has more warmth.

Yours is definitely better . The other is just generic, although the correspondence is quite funny.