Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Erdogan]

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I agree. Typical wall street slang. They will soon come. You will notice it also on the price.

You really think it'll be like that? Maybe later, but definitely not when they start. Expect surprises.

It can be argued all ways.

This is all Mumbo Jumbo to me, and I do NOT understand what I supposedly said.          

I thought so too, but some comments half way persuaded me it was legit. This is absurd!

Yes, and I am glad that you seem to be having some fun, Erdogan, since you seemed to have started this mumbo jumbo.   I'm NOT really sure why, but what the heck.. adding a few posts to this thread will probably NOT hurt BTC prices.         

[aminorex]

MatTheCat is not a troll.  Probably raised by trolls, perhaps under a bridge.  Possibly married to a troll. Definitely shops on troll high street. Speaks with a troll accent. But still, not a troll.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

MatTheCataminorex is not a trollcryptocheerleader.  Probably raised by trollscryptocheerleaders, perhaps under a bridgein a penny stock message board.  Possibly married to a trollcryptocheerleader. Definitely shops on trollcryptocheerleader high street. Speaks with a trollcryptocheerleader accent. But still, not a trollcryptocheerleader.  

[Icardi09]

58x for now
yesterday i see still 60x
what's the negative news or issues?

[SirChiko]

Woke up with more BTC. Feeling damn nice.
Good morning!

Time to defend the 580s

How could you wake up with more btc? Not more $?

[powers_1024]

58x for now
yesterday i see still 60x
what's the negative news or issues?

Holders holding + no buyers = daytraders sodling

[zimmah]

58x for now
yesterday i see still 60x
what's the negative news or issues?

I'd like to know too, I don't think it's any news that drives the price down but I'd like to know the market psychology around it.

[Richard Branson]

There were 2 chances to take big profit and sell part of your coins bought @the last low (below 400$).
Above 650$ and now on this deadcatbounce.

Or you can just hold, but don't get fearful if the price drops below your entry point.

[joburgtaxi]

Just speculating here.

If you were a whale with a large holding and were able to manipulate the market and were also looking at getting some of these FBI/SR coins, would it not be in your best interests to try and drive the market price down before the auction so that you could acquire the coins at auction at the lowest possible price ?

[JorgeStolfi]

I believe that one person could bid 10 times and win all ten lots, so long as his/her bid is the highest one on each lot.  And, if that bidder only bid on one lot, then the most that bidder could win would be one lot.

The auction mechanism is clearly described in the USMS note.  Each bidder submits one "sealed" bid where he says "I will buy up to N blocks of 3000 BTC for X dollars each, and up to M blocks of 2,656.51306529 for Y dollars each", where N is between 0 and 9, and M is 0 or 1.  When the bidding period is over, the USMS "opens" the bids, and awards the blocks of each type to the bidders, by decreasing bid price, until all blocks are awarded.

It appears that the USMS will not release any results to the public:  http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/faqs.pdf It will only tell losing bidders that they lost.  But perhaps the terminally curious will file a FOIA request.

And they felt it was necessary to write

The USMS does not make any representations or warranties regarding Bitcoin.

So you will not get a refund if you buy those bitcoins and they turn out to be counterfeited, or half of their bits fall off after the first transaction.  

[boumalo]

Just speculating here.

If you were a whale with a large holding and were able to manipulate the market and were also looking at getting some of these FBI/SR coins, would it not be in your best interests to try and drive the market price down before the auction so that you could acquire the coins at auction at the lowest possible price ?

You can speculate it would be interesting but risky in a market that is not heading down; I think you would buy back the coins you sold so the price recovers afterwards

There is more chance of the result of the auctions to be a positive news than a negative one anyway but it may be already priced in anyway one way or the other

[TERA]

Just speculating here.

If you were a whale with a large holding and were able to manipulate the market and were also looking at getting some of these FBI/SR coins, would it not be in your best interests to try and drive the market price down before the auction so that you could acquire the coins at auction at the lowest possible price ?

Given the calibre of the participants of the auction,  and who they are buying the coins from,  I don't think they are going to be doing market manipulation like that.

If Rashid Mohamed Indian whale was buying coins from Mark Kerpeles then maybe he'd do that but not when  U.S. business CEO is buying from U.S. marshall.

[Parazyd]

Woke up with more BTC. Feeling damn nice.
Good morning!

Time to defend the 580s

How could you wake up with more btc? Not more $?

Limit orders Bitstamp loves taking my fiat.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[protokol]

Just speculating here.

If you were a whale with a large holding and were able to manipulate the market and were also looking at getting some of these FBI/SR coins, would it not be in your best interests to try and drive the market price down before the auction so that you could acquire the coins at auction at the lowest possible price ?

Yes, but only if you sold less coins than you plan on buying. It would be a risky move that could backfire (sure someone will try it though).

Personally I'm pretty sure most, if not all, batches of FBI coins will sell for a premium. Not because the coins are "clean" or "collectible", but because the investors would happily pay more to avoid slippage.

Think about this hypothetical situation:

20 individuals bid on the coins. I think most investors would bid for more than 1 batch of coins, with a number of bids below market and a number above market price. You only need half of the individuals to make a single bid over market price for all the coins to sell at a premium.

In other words, if you think ALL of the coins will sell at a discount, then that means that NOT A SINGLE BIDDER will bid over market. Pretty unlikely I would say.

[Bagatell]

Given the calibre of the participants of the auction,  and who they are buying the coins from,  I don't think they are going to be doing market manipulation like that.

If Rashid Mohamed Indian whale was buying coins from Mark Kerpeles then maybe he'd do that but not when  U.S. business CEO is buying from U.S. marshall.

Wakey,wakey.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/peek-inside-secret-world-currency-manipulation

[JayJuanGee]

I believe that one person could bid 10 times and win all ten lots, so long as his/her bid is the highest one on each lot.  And, if that bidder only bid on one lot, then the most that bidder could win would be one lot.

The auction mechanism is clearly described in the USMS note.  Each bidder submits one "sealed" bid where he says "I will buy up to N blocks of 3000 BTC for X dollars each, and up to M blocks of 2,656.51306529 for Y dollars each", where N is between 0 and 9, and M is 0 or 1.  When the bidding period is over, the USMS "opens" the bids, and awards the blocks of each type to the bidders, by decreasing bid price, until all blocks are awarded.

It appears that the USMS will not release any results to the public:  http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/faqs.pdf It will only tell losing bidders that they lost.  But perhaps the terminally curious will file a FOIA request.

And they felt it was necessary to write

The USMS does not make any representations or warranties regarding Bitcoin.

So you will not get a refund if you buy those bitcoins and they turn out to be counterfeited, or half of their bits fall off after the first transaction.  

The process seems a little illogical in certain respects, but it seems to clearly communicate what it will be.  Additionally, the actual bidding seems to be a little less than transparent, yet I would imagine that they cannot give a lot to anyone who bid lower, b/c the higher bidder would truely complain if s/he did NOT receive a lot and a lower bidder did.

[TERA]

Given the calibre of the participants of the auction,  and who they are buying the coins from,  I don't think they are going to be doing market manipulation like that.

If Rashid Mohamed Indian whale was buying coins from Mark Kerpeles then maybe he'd do that but not when  U.S. business CEO is buying from U.S. marshall.

Wakey,wakey.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-19/peek-inside-secret-world-currency-manipulation

You're talking about manipulation of billion dollar trades versus manipulation to a acquire a million dollars worth of bitcoin.  the calibre of investor who engages in the former is not going to risk their operation by taking extra risks to engage in the second. That was my point. The amounts of money involved here with this bitcoin auction are peanuts compared to the amount of money that the buyers are used to playing with so why would they bother with market manipulation?

[JorgeStolfi]

If I were bidding at such a sealed-bid auction, I would try to estimate (a) how much revenue I could get from the item if I got it, and (b) what is the minimum profit that I would be happy with on my investment. Then I would bid for the difference (a) minus (b).

For example, I am currently pessimistic about the chances of the price ever getting much higher than now, and expect a downtrend in the short term.  Therefore, if I were to get those bitcoins I would try to sell them right away for the best price, as fast as I could.  If the auction were today, I would expect to get maybe 550 USD/BTC average from selling 3000 coins on the exchanges over the next week.  Thus, I would bid for 500 USD/BTC to have an expected profit of 150'000$ with an investment of 1'500'000$.

By the same reasoning, someone with a more optimistic outlook may bid higher than market.  If he expects BTC to be 10'000 USD next year, then he can bid at 5'000 USD/BTC and still expect to make a nice profit.  But if such person existed, he would be buying all coins in the market now, at any price.  Obviously the optimists are all out of money now.

I suppose that one can build more sophisticated probabilistic models to find one's optimum bid, given one's expectations about future bitcoin prices.  However, one must assume a very broad probability distribution for the other people's bids, so I doubt that one can do much better than the simplistic method above.