Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nrd525]

I still think BFX interest rates on a longterm downward trend (to 0.05%/day), but there are constant market shocks that cause them to increase.  Like China banning/not banning and then the big recovery from $340 to $600.

The guarantee doesn't hold that much value for me as a lender as they could still get hacked or go bankrupt.  I value more the fact that they've developed their internal order book and are more immune to problems from being disconnected from MtGox or Bitstamp than during 2013.  So now instead of relying upon two companies (and sets of servers) - you are only relying on one.

They've also been acting relatively cautiously and pragmatic.  Decreasing the maximum leverage ratio.  Adding Darkcoin to the exchange but not allowing margin trading (I personally don't think Darkcoin is that important - but at least they didn't allow margin trading).  Getting rid of the "myself" guy (who was trouble).  Moving their bank to Taiwan to get out of China.

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[windjc]

This is bad, we are touching the Long term trend line at Stamp at 572 and nobody is buying wtf???

Of course nobody is buying. There is a huuuge major event coming up that controls the whole market and could put us down by a massive amount.

I know about the silk road auction and I know that until the 27th we won't see huge spikes, I'm just saying that nobody seems to be defending the VERY important long term trend line. A Big dump could take us way below that trend line, which would be TERRIBLE for BTC.

No, it would not be terrible.

Step back from the ledge.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shmadz]

i see there was some bouncing around while i was gone    strong bounces, this thing is pretty much ready to move! 

I'm expecting either a strong bounce from this line



or more waterfalls...

or just sideways 'till the auction

or, I really don't know anymore, I started listening to some guy talk about consciousness and reality and watching bitcoin prices and wondering about the relation between adoption and valuation and how a "particle" approaching a pair of slits is not really a particle until someone has observed and taken note of which slit it went through, recording the information in our consciousness, and how that is similar to a transaction before it is recorded in a block. Once recorded in the blockchain, that transaction is REAL ... or at least real in the terms that we can perceive it from within our own little reality bubble.

sorry for ramble, need more beer

[bigasic]

The bitcoin market is very emotional. It moves up or down on whim. The SR coins are just an emotional thing, I think. For some reason people think that the price the 27k coins are sold at will set a precedence for the coins going forward.

[birr]

or, I really don't know anymore, I started listening to some guy talk about consciousness and reality and watching bitcoin prices and wondering about the relation between adoption and valuation and how a "particle" approaching a pair of slits is not really a particle until someone has observed and taken note of which slit it went through, recording the information in our consciousness, and how that is similar to a transaction before it is recorded in a block. Once recorded in the blockchain, that transaction is REAL ... or at least real in the terms that we can perceive it from within our own little reality bubble.

sorry for ramble, need more beer

On the quantum meme, I would suggest that MatTheSchrodinger'sCat is simultaneously alive and dead, at least until something happens to collapse his wave function.

[shmadz]

The bitcoin market is very emotional. It moves up or down on whim. The SR coins are just an emotional thing, I think. For some reason people think that the price the 27k coins are sold at will set a precedence for the coins going forward.

well, I have to admit that to me personally, the auction is the most interesting thing going on in bitcoin right now. (second place, mining, third place, sci-fi physics mumbo-jumbo) 

[phosphorush]

i see there was some bouncing around while i was gone    strong bounces, this thing is pretty much ready to move! 

I'm expecting either a strong bounce from this line



or more waterfalls...

or just sideways 'till the auction

or, I really don't know anymore, I started listening to some guy talk about consciousness and reality and watching bitcoin prices and wondering about the relation between adoption and valuation and how a "particle" approaching a pair of slits is not really a particle until someone has observed and taken note of which slit it went through, recording the information in our consciousness, and how that is similar to a transaction before it is recorded in a block. Once recorded in the blockchain, that transaction is REAL ... or at least real in the terms that we can perceive it from within our own little reality bubble.

sorry for ramble, need more beer

lol

[adamstgBit]

i see there was some bouncing around while i was gone    strong bounces, this thing is pretty much ready to move!  

I'm expecting either a strong bounce from this line



or more waterfalls...

or just sideways 'till the auction

or, I really don't know anymore, I started listening to some guy talk about consciousness and reality and watching bitcoin prices and wondering about the relation between adoption and valuation and how a "particle" approaching a pair of slits is not really a particle until someone has observed and taken note of which slit it went through, recording the information in our consciousness, and how that is similar to a transaction before it is recorded in a block. Once recorded in the blockchain, that transaction is REAL ... or at least real in the terms that we can perceive it from within our own little reality bubble.

sorry for ramble, need more beer

consciousness valuation adoption  
 

i voted 620 but now it looks like the price will be 590-550 this friday. but who knows! I see a bull run in the coming weeks

[justusranvier]

Once recorded in the blockchain, that transaction is REAL

I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't true.

Transactions in the blockchain never become fully real, because Bitcoin doesn't solve the distributed consensus problem. Nothing solves the distributed consensus problem because it's not solvable.

Bitcoin almost solves it, and transactions asymptotically approach a completed state, but no transaction is ever truly confirmed.





Close enough for practical purposes, though.

[samsonn25]

Is possible to test 550 as Macd is flattening out.

[shmadz]

Once recorded in the blockchain, that transaction is REAL

I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't true.

Transactions in the blockchain never become fully real, because Bitcoin doesn't solve the distributed consensus problem. Nothing solves the distributed consensus problem because it's not solvable.

Bitcoin almost solves it, and transactions asymptotically approach a completed state, but no transaction is ever truly confirmed.





Close enough for practical purposes, though.

very well put, and emphasis mine.

I also anxiously await, and almost fear, a provable computational way to fix that problem.

but the distributed consciousness problem is eerily similar.

[BTCfan1]

so do you guys think the auction will drag down the price before the next rally? 

[adamstgBit]

so do you guys think the auction will drag down the price before the next rally? 

if it does is it a good time to buy?
 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

i see a wall

[Torque]

so do you guys think the auction will drag down the price before the next rally?  

if it does is it a good time to buy?
 

No, it's a good time to panic sell!  PANIC SELL ALL DE COINS NAOW!

Also, notice how the whales managed to 'unlight' the green candle on the 1W MACD on Stamp.  Nope, no manipulation going on here.  Not a bit.

[Untitled87]

Damn it we're back to red on macd

[Wandererfromthenorth]

This is bad, we are touching the Long term trend line at Stamp at 572 and nobody is buying wtf???

Of course nobody is buying. There is a huuuge major event coming up that controls the whole market and could put us down by a massive amount.

I know about the silk road auction and I know that until the 27th we won't see huge spikes, I'm just saying that nobody seems to be defending the VERY important long term trend line. A Big dump could take us way below that trend line, which would be TERRIBLE for BTC.

I like lines!

which line were you referring to exactly?

Yes that one pretty much





If you draw the trend line with the two points at red arrows you would have predicted
1: the $340 crash bottom
2: confirmation of the trend reversal with the huge pump "out of nowhere"
3: bounce from the last 680-540 crash


that trend line

[Untitled87]

This is bad, we are touching the Long term trend line at Stamp at 572 and nobody is buying wtf???

Of course nobody is buying. There is a huuuge major event coming up that controls the whole market and could put us down by a massive amount.

I know about the silk road auction and I know that until the 27th we won't see huge spikes, I'm just saying that nobody seems to be defending the VERY important long term trend line. A Big dump could take us way below that trend line, which would be TERRIBLE for BTC.

I like lines!

which line were you referring to exactly?

Yes that one pretty much





If you draw the trend line with the two points at red arrows you would have predicted
1: the $340 crash bottom
2: confirmation of the trend reversal with the huge pump "out of nowhere"
3: bounce from the last 680-540 crash


that trend line

What are your predictions for 2014?