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Question: Oct. 31 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (5.8%)
<$7,000 - 5 (9.6%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 2 (3.8%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 4 (7.7%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 10 (19.2%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 9 (17.3%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 4 (7.7%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 3 (5.8%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 4 (7.7%)
>$10,500 - 4 (7.7%)
>$20,000 - 4 (7.7%)
Total Voters: 52

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21408854 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (109 posts by 22 users deleted.)
BBmodBB
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July 01, 2014, 01:22:34 AM



WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!
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July 01, 2014, 01:45:20 AM

then barry siebert tweets: lol j/k
and dumps into your bid.
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July 01, 2014, 01:47:12 AM
Last edit: July 01, 2014, 02:06:24 AM by shmadz

It's nice that my alarms actually worked for once, now how to figure when to close open positions...

Should one just close now and take the profits?

Or do you just let it run and continue to let the fees eat away at profits?

Sorry for noob questions.

dear noob. If you're a noob, maybe you shouldn't use leverage.

Also: if you take profit in USD you're doing that bitcoin-thing wrong.

Please consider the option of closing your leveraged long position and just buying some bitcoin outright. No continiual fees attached.

Thanks molecular, sorry I wasn't more clear, I've just started playing with leverage on btc.sx -it's a pure bitcoin play.

I'm all out of fiat, and my mining income just isn't cutting it for me anymore, so I figured leverage looked fun.

Thanks for the advice anyways tho

Yeah, I think molecular was a bit harsh here.

To answer your question: going long on leverage in btc is slightly less dangerous to begin with than going short on leverage, but even the latter _can_  make sense, if used very, very controlled.

In your case, you're making a bit of a gamble that I personally wouldn't do: you are betting big (leverage) on a major breakout, but you don't know yet if that'll happen. I would probably suggest to close the leveraged position (and take profit in USD), but (if you have the time) get back into it once the breakout is confirmed. That would for example be breaking the daily SMA200 conclusively, and almost certainly breaking the previous 680 top. In that case, there'd be almost certainly enough upwards momentum to warrant a leveraged long position, even if you're comparably risk averse.

I am however assuming you're not leveraged beyond factor 2 or 3, right? Don't know what btc.sx offers...

Thanks Oda.  'edit=I'm trading 10 to one on experimental size bets.'

Quick question, do you normally have to pay any interest or fee to hold on to a bet that is in a positive position?
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July 01, 2014, 02:00:40 AM


Explanation
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July 01, 2014, 02:21:02 AM

Again, where is 30,000 coming from? They had 48,013 BTC of bids..

So, they had 16 bids.. (48,000 for 30,000 bitcoin)

I guess what matters here is wether or not the 20M includes the obvious 18,000 that didnt win (0% chance for them to win, before results were out). I dont see why it WOULDNT include that.

So, $20,000,000/48,000 = $416.67
The syndicate got 186 small bids totalling 48,000 BTC.  As you say, it would be silly to submit all of them to the USMS, so SecondMarket must have picked the ones with largest bid price, totalling the 29'600 BTC, and assembled from them a set of bids for the 9+1 lots on auction. 

Is the 20 M$ figure real information?  From the comments following Alan Silbert's tweet, I understood that it was only his estimate, or at least he did not clearly admit that it was real.  Have there been any explicit leaks or claims by any bidders about the bid prices?


No, 20million worths of SM bid is *not* a factual information.
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July 01, 2014, 02:22:44 AM

It´s finally hapenning!  Grin We all gonna be rich  Roll Eyes Like i said we are going to 700 at the firsts days of July and then we are going to be ready to reach the moon.
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July 01, 2014, 02:24:20 AM

So far China has been like "Meh".
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July 01, 2014, 02:44:54 AM

So far China has been like "Meh".

What exactly are you expecting? Yesterday you were bullish. And we went up $50-$60 or almost 10%.

Now we are consolidating at highs ready to make a push for the $685 area of resistance. After that we are looking at $710 area of resistance. After that we are looking at $733 and then $800 and then $840.

Who knows how far we will go, but lately these bullish legs up have been lasting 7-14 days. We got some time to make our way up.
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July 01, 2014, 02:45:18 AM

Quote

“The award process is ongoing,“ Donahue said.

“Not today,” confirmed another spokesman for the Marshals Service. “I’m not at liberty to say why. The process is still ongoing,” he said.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/30/feds-put-bitcoin-auction-bidders-on-hold/

How can you screw up a simple auction?
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July 01, 2014, 02:46:46 AM

Quote

“The award process is ongoing,“ Donahue said.

“Not today,” confirmed another spokesman for the Marshals Service. “I’m not at liberty to say why. The process is still ongoing,” he said.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/30/feds-put-bitcoin-auction-bidders-on-hold/

How can you screw up a simple auction?

Can you confirm a screw up occured?

Didn't think so.

There are several practical reasons they might delay the final results.
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July 01, 2014, 02:48:26 AM

Quote

“The award process is ongoing,“ Donahue said.

“Not today,” confirmed another spokesman for the Marshals Service. “I’m not at liberty to say why. The process is still ongoing,” he said.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/30/feds-put-bitcoin-auction-bidders-on-hold/

How can you screw up a simple auction?

Can you confirm a screw up occured?

Didn't think so.

There are several practical reasons they might delay the final results.

For example: it takes a while to get the subpoenas ready. ;-)
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July 01, 2014, 02:49:48 AM

Quote

“The award process is ongoing,“ Donahue said.

“Not today,” confirmed another spokesman for the Marshals Service. “I’m not at liberty to say why. The process is still ongoing,” he said.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/30/feds-put-bitcoin-auction-bidders-on-hold/

How can you screw up a simple auction?

Can you confirm a screw up occured?

Didn't think so.

There are several practical reasons they might delay the final results.

It may just be me but “I’m not at liberty to say why" implies something went wrong.
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July 01, 2014, 02:50:13 AM

I had a feeling that BTC would start to go up after the marshals sale...
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July 01, 2014, 02:57:34 AM

It may just be me but “I’m not at liberty to say why" implies something went wrong.
They lost the private key or accidentally sent the funds to the Bitcoin Eater address.
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July 01, 2014, 03:00:39 AM


Explanation
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July 01, 2014, 03:02:17 AM

It may just be me but “I’m not at liberty to say why" implies something went wrong.
They lost the private key or accidentally sent the funds to the Bitcoin Eater address.

They will likely wait until the bidder's fiat clears before they send, I'm assuming they didn't have to wire funds until they were notified they had won, so legacy banking speed means we might see the coins move sometime before the end of the week?
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July 01, 2014, 03:07:26 AM

Quote

“The award process is ongoing,“ Donahue said.

“Not today,” confirmed another spokesman for the Marshals Service. “I’m not at liberty to say why. The process is still ongoing,” he said.

http://nypost.com/2014/06/30/feds-put-bitcoin-auction-bidders-on-hold/

How can you screw up a simple auction?

Can you confirm a screw up occured?

Didn't think so.

There are several practical reasons they might delay the final results.

How could they let people know they lost already when the award process is ongoing? You have to pass the background check before the auction so that can't be it. I bet someone won all the blocks of coins at a high price, and if I am not mistaken, I read or heard they were selling them in chunks so no one entity could turn around and sell them. I think it was on the news clip that aired right before the auction. My guess is some bank bought them all and they are trying to revise the rules, to whose benefit I have no idea.
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July 01, 2014, 03:40:00 AM

They will likely wait until the bidder's fiat clears before they send, I'm assuming they didn't have to wire funds until they were notified they had won, so legacy banking speed means we might see the coins move sometime before the end of the week?
Right.  Also, if one of the winners fails to wire in the payment (and thus loses the 200 k$ deposit)  they have to notify the next highest unfilled bidder, and give him an extra day to send his payment, and so on.  It is only after they got payments for all lots of the same series that the winners and losers (and the winning prices) will be defined. 

Presumably professional bidders like SecondMarket make sure that they have the full amount on hand before submitting a bid.  But who knows what types may have bid on this auction.   
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July 01, 2014, 03:40:07 AM

Hey look.  The top story on Slashdot is in regards to Stolfi and Bitcorn.
http://science.slashdot.org/story/14/07/01/0020227/how-often-do-economists-commit-misconduct
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July 01, 2014, 03:44:26 AM

Hey look.  The top story on Slashdot is in regards to Stolfi and Bitcorn.
http://science.slashdot.org/story/14/07/01/0020227/how-often-do-economists-commit-misconduct
You are confusing me with Tuur Demeester perhaps?  Wink
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