Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

20 years from now there will be no USD or USA.

Lol.  Thankfully this is virtually impossible.  But if you were right, I suppose you have no idea the sorts of war and chaos you are predicting.

USD could be greatly diminished, but sensible folks should hope this is a gentle transition.  As to the US being gone.  Woof.  That's just reckless and blind.

[justusranvier]

20 years from now there will be no USD or USA.

Lol.  Thankfully this is virtually impossible.  But if you were right, I suppose you have no idea the sorts of war and chaos you are predicting.

USD could be greatly diminished, but sensible folks should hope this is a gentle transition.  As to the US being gone.  Woof.  That's just reckless and blind.

What did anything you said have to do with whether or not my statement is true or false?

Are one of those superstitious people who believes that if we don't talk about bad things they won't happen?

The USA is following the same historical trajectory as the USSR. Absent some rational explanation of why the same actions that have lead to a failed state in every other historical example will not have the same result here, I conclude that the USA will share the same fate.

I'd call your "I don't like that conclusion therefore it's not true" rebuttal childish, however that's insulting to children.

[600watt]

20 years from now there will be no USD or USA.

Lol.  Thankfully this is virtually impossible.  But if you were right, I suppose you have no idea the sorts of war and chaos you are predicting.

USD could be greatly diminished, but sensible folks should hope this is a gentle transition.  As to the US being gone.  Woof.  That's just reckless and blind.

What did anything you said have to do with whether or not my statement is true or false?

Are one of those superstitious people who believes that if we don't talk about bad things they won't happen?

The USA is following the same historical trajectory as the USSR. Absent some rational explanation of why the same actions that have lead to a failed state in every other historical example will not have the same result here, I conclude that the USA will share the same fate.

I'd call your "I don't like that conclusion therefore it's not true" rebuttal childish, however that's insulting to children.

the US is ruling the world (or half the world) strongly and kind of smart (since most of the inhibitants of the empire don´t even know that the US owns their government). the pax americana has worked very well for lots of western countries.  well enough to not change it.  who should be the successor ? china ? india ? not in just two decades. no empire lasts forever, but i do not see the end is near for US rule yet.

[Krabby]

There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.

[empowering]

so do you guys think this recent bump was from the newegg guys who have insider info, or does it have to do with the marshal auction? i personally think it has more to do with newegg.

I agree. Newegg > Overstock and Tiger Direct put together.

We're primed to go up. If a government somewhere is about to screw up badly, (and there's probably one), it'll get crazy.

I think there is more than one, and also they have already screwed up, we are just waiting for the shit storm. (USA included)

Not to mention a global food price-inflation crisis.

Happy times  

Times are A changin'

More than one government has already past the point of no return debtwise, it is no longer a question of  IF governments will default on their debts – it is a question of when.

Insolvent is still insolvent, even if you dress it up and prolong the pain.

[Richy_T]

Times are A changin'

(Don't donate if that scans )

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jmw74]

20 years from now there will be no USD or USA.

Lol.  Thankfully this is virtually impossible.  But if you were right, I suppose you have no idea the sorts of war and chaos you are predicting.

USD could be greatly diminished, but sensible folks should hope this is a gentle transition.  As to the US being gone.  Woof.  That's just reckless and blind.

What did anything you said have to do with whether or not my statement is true or false?

Are one of those superstitious people who believes that if we don't talk about bad things they won't happen?

The USA is following the same historical trajectory as the USSR. Absent some rational explanation of why the same actions that have lead to a failed state in every other historical example will not have the same result here, I conclude that the USA will share the same fate.

I'd call your "I don't like that conclusion therefore it's not true" rebuttal childish, however that's insulting to children.

In what way is the US following the same trajectory as the USSR?  Of course the US will be gone someday, 20 years seems a little short.  Just because it's clear we're heading toward a crisis doesn't mean the government will fall.  What would it be replaced with?  Technology might replace some government function in the next 20 years, but probably not all of it. For example I don't foresee technology providing healthcare for the poor.  The free market prefers to just hide the poor from sight, rather than help them.

[Richy_T]

More than one government has already past the point of no return debtwise, it is no longer a question of  IF governments will default on their debts – it is a question of when.

21 Countries Have Experienced Hyperinflation In the Last 25 Years
http://www.munknee.com/21-countries-have-experienced-hyperinflation-in-last-25-years-is-the-u-s-next/

[zimmah]

Times are A changin'

(Don't donate if that scans )

reverse psychology?

it is an actual address, 0 transactions though.

[explorer]

There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.

It's just the timing that is hard to nail down. 

cAPSLOCK, of course sensible people hope for a soft landing, but is it not also sensible to prepare for a hard landing?  Just as likely  to happen I think.  Civil unrest is escalating all around the world.  You are not immune. If it doesn't bear thinking about, perhaps it bears thinking about. 

[Richy_T]

it is an actual address, 0 transactions though.

It is a random address and I don't have the private key (though perhaps I should).

OK. I have secured the private key Not begging though.

[wiak2]

http://coinfire.cf/2014/06/30/breaking-usms-auction-winners-notified/

A verified source with the USMS who wishes to remain anonymous stated to Coin Fire, “It is really important that we get this 100% right. We have to verify that they aren’t tied to any sort of criminal activity, we have to verify we have the money from the wire transfer. If we send the coins we understand we will have no way to reverse the transaction so every step is being taken.”

[YogoH]

http://coinfire.cf/2014/06/30/breaking-usms-auction-winners-notified/

A verified source with the USMS who wishes to remain anonymous stated to Coin Fire, “It is really important that we get this 100% right. We have to verify that they aren’t tied to any sort of criminal activity, we have to verify we have the money from the wire transfer. If we send the coins we understand we will have no way to reverse the transaction so every step is being taken.”

Makes sense to me. We are dealing with the government here and obviously if they can't even send an email right, its probably the best thing they can do.

[wachtwoord]

http://coinfire.cf/2014/06/30/breaking-usms-auction-winners-notified/

A verified source with the USMS who wishes to remain anonymous stated to Coin Fire, “It is really important that we get this 100% right. We have to verify that they aren’t tied to any sort of criminal activity, we have to verify we have the money from the wire transfer. If we send the coins we understand we will have no way to reverse the transaction so every step is being taken.”

Makes sense to me. We are dealing with the government here and obviously if they can't even send an email right, its probably the best thing they can do.

I was (am?) so hoping they are going to fuck up ...

[fluidjax]

http://coinfire.cf/2014/06/30/breaking-usms-auction-winners-notified/

A verified source with the USMS who wishes to remain anonymous stated to Coin Fire, “It is really important that we get this 100% right. We have to verify that they aren’t tied to any sort of criminal activity, we have to verify we have the money from the wire transfer. If we send the coins we understand we will have no way to reverse the transaction so every step is being taken.”

Thanks for the link, minimum price for the sales (from supposedly verifiable facts)  is $451... So not much real info yet...

[empowering]

20 years from now there will be no USD or USA.

Lol.  Thankfully this is virtually impossible.  But if you were right, I suppose you have no idea the sorts of war and chaos you are predicting.

USD could be greatly diminished, but sensible folks should hope this is a gentle transition.  As to the US being gone.  Woof.  That's just reckless and blind.

What did anything you said have to do with whether or not my statement is true or false?

Are one of those superstitious people who believes that if we don't talk about bad things they won't happen?

The USA is following the same historical trajectory as the USSR. Absent some rational explanation of why the same actions that have lead to a failed state in every other historical example will not have the same result here, I conclude that the USA will share the same fate.

I'd call your "I don't like that conclusion therefore it's not true" rebuttal childish, however that's insulting to children.

In what way is the US following the same trajectory as the USSR?  Of course the US will be gone someday, 20 years seems a little short.  Just because it's clear we're heading toward a crisis doesn't mean the government will fall.  What would it be replaced with?  Technology might replace some government function in the next 20 years, but probably not all of it. For example I don't foresee technology providing healthcare for the poor.  The free market prefers to just hide the poor from sight, rather than help them.

With the current information and the current path we are on........ Financially speaking, China Russia and Iran and the BRIC nations/others could stop accepting the devaluded USD (as they are already making moves to do so) and the USD could be usurped by a basket of other currencies and lose its place as the reserve/petrodollar.  If the United states continues printing 85 Billion a month the USD will continue to further devalue, if it stops being used as the reserve then it will speed up its collapse. Whilst continuing to increase the debt levels on an exponential scale, without addressing the debt, as they are doing, where/how do you think this will end? There is only one inevitable conclusion, and that is a major crisis, at some point somethign has got to give. The USD "dying" and the USA disintegrating into the Un-united states of America is actually the least worrying scenario....in almost all of the other scenarios that this is somehow avoided, most look ugly to me.  Also during the next 20 years it is not just the US that will be falling, the east will be rising which will further compound the problems in the west. Perhaphs you are right in that the USA may still stand, and the USD will still be there, in 20 years time, maybe, but they will not be or mean the same thing, there is a shift coming, it is not just in terms of digital money that things are changing.  On a side note, regarding healthcare for the poor, that is another thing that will look vastly different in 20 years time- (both the healthcare, and the poor)  Technology is growing at an exponential rate, and also there is ever increasing synthesis joining different tech together, and one of the first places we will see this most evident will be healthcare, also as the tec gets faster, smaller, more intelligent, it is also becoming cheaper and reaching the market quicker and quicker, and this is only going to increase as the synthesis and merging of different fields continues. I think that the world is going to change more in the next 20 years than it has in the past 100, and the world has changed a fair bit in the past 100 years. This process, is actually one of the few positive scenarios that could save the collapse of the US and the dollar, but even then , I believe that it will actually mean that the dollar and perhaps country , will be a entire different beast altogether. Paradigm shifts are on their way, before the shifts happen it is difficult to say with accuracy how they will effect the world, which is why I started "With the current information and the current path we are on...." So maybe it is a race.... one thing is for sure.. the financial side, as things stand, either needs to collapse, have a war, or a paradigm shift in the very structure of finance/the economy  .... BTC anyone?

[wachtwoord]

http://coinfire.cf/2014/06/30/breaking-usms-auction-winners-notified/

A verified source with the USMS who wishes to remain anonymous stated to Coin Fire, “It is really important that we get this 100% right. We have to verify that they aren’t tied to any sort of criminal activity, we have to verify we have the money from the wire transfer. If we send the coins we understand we will have no way to reverse the transaction so every step is being taken.”

Makes sense to me. We are dealing with the government here and obviously if they can't even send an email right, its probably the best thing they can do.

First, to track down the lost keys LOL.  What do you mean?  I thought YOU were going to do the backup!  Too many hands, someone is going to drop the ball 

I think John has the keys. Speaking about John, where is he anyway? I haven't seen him all week  

[kireinaha]

http://coinfire.cf/2014/06/30/breaking-usms-auction-winners-notified/

A verified source with the USMS who wishes to remain anonymous stated to Coin Fire, “It is really important that we get this 100% right. We have to verify that they aren’t tied to any sort of criminal activity, we have to verify we have the money from the wire transfer. If we send the coins we understand we will have no way to reverse the transaction so every step is being taken.”

Makes sense to me. We are dealing with the government here and obviously if they can't even send an email right, its probably the best thing they can do.

I've worked for a government agency in the past (as a contractor), and most of the government people around me were "equal opportunity"... people who could barely read or write but hired to meet some quota. Computer skills typically extended no further than opening a web browser to open Yahoo's front page. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if they lose the private key to the coins. Right now they're just trying to cover for it.

[aminorex]

There is no doubt in my mind that the US and USD will fall.

It's just the timing that is hard to nail down.  

Is it really?  What is the longest lived fiat debt-based currency in history?  USD, since 1971.  Others more clever than I have made the argument that with a sample size of 1 the most likely future span of an event with duration is the historical duration.  From this we take the least-assumption prior estimate that the central tendency for future lifetime of the USD is 43 years.  Then we observe the likelihood of a terminal event for USD by examining the likelihood of terminal events for comparables, and adjust distribution accordingly.  The likelihood of terminal events for comparables are conditioned on several factors, such as debt/GDP ratio, approval ratings of the central government, employment and real inflation trends, &c.

My best effort result has the terminal point of USD between 2017 and 2025 with 95% probability.  The conclusion is sensitive to the choice of conditioning factors and comparables, however.