Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Erdogan]

Monkey is suddenly fearful of an impulsive downward movement.  

Perhaps monkeys are in touch with their primitive impulsive instincts than I am.  Rationally, I do not see how this thing can fail to take off.  Every professional trader in every major financial center must realize at this point, that a 10x, 50x move is all but guarranteed when COIN lists.  How can they not be loading up in their personal accounts?

Still, monkey sez:  Danger of 640 floor breaking over the next 5 hours.

Hey monkey.

From imf "...the decisive factor in stemming market
distress and spillover effects was the action taken to put in place credible firewalls, including the
commitment by the central bank to ensure zone-wide stability through the necessary support
measures."

They of course refer to the Draghi put:

"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro and believe me, it will be enough."

So what you have to do is:

• gain some credibility
  
• Within the limits of our liquidity base, we are ready to do whatever it takes to support a bitcoin price of $800, and  believe me, it will be enough.
  

Things like the Exchange Stabilisation Fund you mean?

I was more thinking of the monkey's private liquidity base in USD. I suppose he has one, else it will be futile.

[1714094857]

1714094857

[Erdogan]

.  I'm done teaching you, prof.

He reminds me of the professor from atlas shrugged.

(paraphrasing) "This is the last institute of academic learning in the country! We must sacrifice this silly bitcoin idea to protect the interests of the greater good!"

Ding!

[aminorex]

What are monkey's thoughts on bubbles? Specifically speculative ones, I'm not really that fussed about his approach to soapy water.
The idea seems to be very popular around here but they don't seem to want to arrive on time.

I can tell you how he did on btc historically on longer scales, easily enough.  Anything more in-depth would require work, which my physician says could trigger an allergic reaction.

Monthly:

The monkey has never been bearish.  He wanted me in BTC from January to August 2011, July 2012 to June 2013, and completely missed the November 2013 event.
He has demanded that I be in BTC since the end of June.

Nov. 2013 event, weekly:

He thought one might be starting in the first week of August last year, but kinda got weary of the wait in the last full week of September, while still holding out hope.
Then he said it was starting for real the week of 18 October, although he allowed that if it failed it would fail badly, early on.  When it didn't, he went into high alert mode  1 November,
until 29 November.  He held out hope of a more upside until 13 Dec, and then basically gave up on it.  He never called a bottom after that, on a weekly basis.

Mar. 2013 event, weekly:

In the previous instance he starting twitching 11 January, got really worried (similar to his 18 October worries) the weeks of 22 Feb, 8 Mar, but keep the choo choo flag flying.  
He dropped it on 5 April.

Daily anecdotes:

The daily scale performance is a bit better, but completely missed the late november blow-off top.  Some of the topping and trapping is just too fast for the weekly analysis mode, so this isn't surprising.  Also there's more training on these scales. (Monkey does not train on bitcoin data at all, just stocks, commodities, fixed income and forex.)  He is now long, 4 days running.  Previously he was long 16 May to 26 May,  short 14 March to 2 April, short 5 February to 13 February, long 13 Dec 2013 to 2 Jan 2014, long 8 October to 11 November 2013.

On the daily in early 2013 he is absolutely amazing, picking out the two major up swings from 15 Mar, and capturing the bubble top before giving up just in time, nailing it.  He also saw a bull move May 7 to 17, but did not make any short recommendations from October 2012 until 30 May.  He then picked out the two strongest down-swings, up to 3 July 2013, with excellent precision, indicating shorts.

At this point I have to go do something else, so I won't report any more particulars right now, except to say that intraday he is urging me long and longer, right now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

what you have to do is:

• gain some credibility
  
• Within the limits of our liquidity base, we are ready to do whatever it takes to support a bitcoin price of $800, and  believe me, it will be enough.
  

Things like the Exchange Stabilisation Fund you mean?

I was more thinking of the monkey's private liquidity base in USD. I suppose he has one, else it will be futile.

I am so in favor of putting the magic monkey in charge of managing the magic internet money.  It appeals to the parts of me that adore latin american magical realism.  However, the monkey has never worked for Goldman-Sachs, so he is obviously not on the short list for recruiting central bankers.  (I think they prefer Ivy League simians at Goldman.  Monkey grew up in the jungle, never wore Nantucket reds during the summer, and doesn't date girls named Tiffany who drive Boxsters -- but only because they never return his calls.)

He might actually get a job making market in COIN options one day, however.

[Bagatell]

Careful plugging in that 100th monkey!

[derpinheimer]

Resistance to 700 keeps getting bigger

The stronger the resistance, the more powerful the breakout  

Yes, the wrong way i'm afraid.

The resistance actually isnt growing significantly

He is probably talking about BTC-E, and he seems to be right. Actually ShroomsKit made many observations that uber-bulls ignore.

BTC-e has a history of being below the market. They are more a market leader for LTC.

Yep. Compared to about a month ago, at the same price level,

Bitstamp is a bit more bullish (10% higher bidsum, 5% lower ask sum)
Bitfenix is much more bearish (50% lower bidsum, 10% lower ask sum)
BTC-E is unimportant and inaccurate, but the bid sum is a bit higher..
Huobi is more bullish (50% higher bidsum, 5% higher ask sum)    <--- could be inaccurate, but I am unsure

[xyzzy099]

what you have to do is:

• gain some credibility
  
• Within the limits of our liquidity base, we are ready to do whatever it takes to support a bitcoin price of $800, and  believe me, it will be enough.
  

Things like the Exchange Stabilisation Fund you mean?

I was more thinking of the monkey's private liquidity base in USD. I suppose he has one, else it will be futile.

I am so in favor of putting the magic monkey in charge of managing the magic internet money.  It appeals to the parts of me that adore latin american magical realism.  However, the monkey has never worked for Goldman-Sachs, so he is obviously not on the short list for recruiting central bankers.  (I think they prefer Ivy League simians at Goldman.  Monkey grew up in the jungle, never wore Nantucket reds during the summer, and doesn't date girls named Tiffany who drive Boxsters -- but only because they never return his calls.)

He might actually get a job making market in COIN options one day, however.

[ShroomsKit]

http://bgr.com/2014/07/03/bitcoin-exchange-mainstream-analysis/

I noticed a lot of positive media the last 7 days. It completely changed compared to even a month ago.
Everyone feels like now is the time. Everyone is excited. Everyone but the sellers.
It's probably the best week this year and the selling pressure is sky high.
So odd.

[Richy_T]

Plug him in and turn him on! Might even be more monkeys out there, get a p2p distributed monkey onto it

Always mount a scratch monkey.

[wachtwoord]

http://bgr.com/2014/07/03/bitcoin-exchange-mainstream-analysis/

I noticed a lot of positive media the last 7 days. It completely changed compared to even a month ago.
Everyone feels like now is the time. Everyone is excited. Everyone but the sellers.
It's probably the best week this year and the selling pressure is sky high.
So odd.

Maybe many people bought at these prices, got scared due to the lower prices and are dumping to exit permanently? We had a lot of those during the last growth spurt too. When these sellers are out of the way we can proceed.

[ImI]

http://bgr.com/2014/07/03/bitcoin-exchange-mainstream-analysis/

I noticed a lot of positive media the last 7 days. It completely changed compared to even a month ago.
Everyone feels like now is the time. Everyone is excited. Everyone but the sellers.
It's probably the best week this year and the selling pressure is sky high.
So odd.

i think one problem that bitcoin faces is the bad exchange situation / not much confidence in the exchanges

alot of new folks get attracted to bitcoin everyday, but other than last year, they have no idea where to buy bitcoin in a safe way. the gox desaster has shocked basic confidence and that still is a factor imo.
i talked to some guys that are interested in bitcoin but the bullshit that went on at gox is keeping them from sending $s to some east european exchange.

thats a big problem imo.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[gentlemand]

http://bgr.com/2014/07/03/bitcoin-exchange-mainstream-analysis/

I noticed a lot of positive media the last 7 days. It completely changed compared to even a month ago.
Everyone feels like now is the time. Everyone is excited. Everyone but the sellers.
It's probably the best week this year and the selling pressure is sky high.
So odd.

i think one problem that bitcoin faces is the bad exchange situation / not much confidence in the exchanges

alot of new folks get attracted to bitcoin everyday, but other than last year, they have no idea where to buy bitcoin in a safe way. the gox desaster has shocked basic confidence and that still is a factor imo.
i talked to some guys that are interested in bitcoin but the bullshit that went on at gox is keeping them from sending $s to some east european exchange.

thats a big problem imo.

Agreed. I think we'll bounce around until there are some bulletproof exchanges. The current ones are mainly hangovers from the $10-100 days. They're not good enough if we're talking thousands per coin.

[ShroomsKit]

http://bgr.com/2014/07/03/bitcoin-exchange-mainstream-analysis/

I noticed a lot of positive media the last 7 days. It completely changed compared to even a month ago.
Everyone feels like now is the time. Everyone is excited. Everyone but the sellers.
It's probably the best week this year and the selling pressure is sky high.
So odd.

i think one problem that bitcoin faces is the bad exchange situation / not much confidence in the exchanges

alot of new folks get attracted to bitcoin everyday, but other than last year, they have no idea where to buy bitcoin in a safe way. the gox desaster has shocked basic confidence and that still is a factor imo.
i talked to some guys that are interested in bitcoin but the bullshit that went on at gox is keeping them from sending $s to some east european exchange.

thats a big problem imo.

That certainly has something to do with it.  That Gox situation has been extremely bad for Bitcoin. Still to this day.

[ImI]

http://bgr.com/2014/07/03/bitcoin-exchange-mainstream-analysis/

I noticed a lot of positive media the last 7 days. It completely changed compared to even a month ago.
Everyone feels like now is the time. Everyone is excited. Everyone but the sellers.
It's probably the best week this year and the selling pressure is sky high.
So odd.

i think one problem that bitcoin faces is the bad exchange situation / not much confidence in the exchanges

alot of new folks get attracted to bitcoin everyday, but other than last year, they have no idea where to buy bitcoin in a safe way. the gox desaster has shocked basic confidence and that still is a factor imo.
i talked to some guys that are interested in bitcoin but the bullshit that went on at gox is keeping them from sending $s to some east european exchange.

thats a big problem imo.

Not sure about the rest of the world but the ATM here has a solid turnover. Then there's other outlets, there's been a lot of talk of voucher/card systems and you hear mentions of country based operators regularly.

yes, luckily there are multiple ways to get some BTCs. nevertheless it would be such a boost in confidence if some known big player would enter the exchange market.

[dgarcia]

i think one problem that bitcoin faces is the bad exchange situation / not much confidence in the exchanges

alot of new folks get attracted to bitcoin everyday, but other than last year, they have no idea where to buy bitcoin in a safe way. the gox desaster has shocked basic confidence and that still is a factor imo.
i talked to some guys that are interested in bitcoin but the bullshit that went on at gox is keeping them from sending $s to some east european exchange.

thats a big problem imo.

So what?
You should ask them how much, sell them with interest from your stack and re-order for yourself, of course. A safe way has it's price.

So you'll be this new confident Exchange ;-)

[spooderman]

I wish I understood the monkey meme in here. Anyone care to explain? My inkling is that it serves to highlight the absurdity of predicting something quite unpredictable through parody. But this feels too complicated. Though amniorex does usually think at this sort of depth.

[ImI]

i think one problem that bitcoin faces is the bad exchange situation / not much confidence in the exchanges

alot of new folks get attracted to bitcoin everyday, but other than last year, they have no idea where to buy bitcoin in a safe way. the gox desaster has shocked basic confidence and that still is a factor imo.
i talked to some guys that are interested in bitcoin but the bullshit that went on at gox is keeping them from sending $s to some east european exchange.

thats a big problem imo.

So what?
You should ask them how much, sell them with interest from your stack and re-order for yourself, of course. A safe way has it's price.

So you'll be this new confident Exchange ;-)

lol

yeah thats the way to go, nevertheless who takes care of all the other lost souls?

[Wary]

I wish I understood the monkey meme in here. Anyone care to explain? My inkling is that it serves to highlight the absurdity of predicting something quite unpredictable through parody. But this feels too complicated. Though amniorex does usually think at this sort of depth.

Aminorex is developing his indicator and kindly shares with it's results. But being a kind of person that prefers long words and sentences to short ones, he would find saying "my indicators shows this and that" too boring, so come the magic monkey. Also, since he put a lot of effort into creating and training the indicator, he start treating it more like favorite pet with all it's tricks rather that like a soulless junk of computer code.