Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[theonewhowaskazu]

Speculation inherently runs the risk of being wrong.  That's no excuse not to participate.  Stop beating around the bush and make a price prediction, Stolfi.

A couple of months ago I tried issuing a daily ~20h prediction based on a hunch that I though might work (the "Chinese Slumber Method").  But in the end it was not significantly better than the trivial method "tomorrow the price will be the same as today". 

So my prediction for  tomorrow at this hour on Bitstamp is 621.18 USD.   Also for next year on this day, too. 

I will lay 10:1 against your prediction for Jul 16, 2015.  Will bet up to 1 Bitcoin.

I'll 1 up that. 10:1 against your prediction, except I'll even let you win if your bet is within 10% of the market price.

[JorgeStolfi]

Speculation inherently runs the risk of being wrong.  That's no excuse not to participate.  Stop beating around the bush and make a price prediction, Stolfi.

A couple of months ago I tried issuing a daily ~20h prediction based on a hunch that I though might work (the "Chinese Slumber Method").  But in the end it was not significantly better than the trivial method "tomorrow the price will be the same as today". 

So my prediction for  tomorrow at this hour on Bitstamp is 621.18 USD.   Also for next year on this day, too. 

I will lay 10:1 against your prediction for Jul 16, 2015.  Will bet up to 1 Bitcoin.

I don't bet unless I believe I am right and I believe that I know why the other guy is wrong.  And even then a pizza and beer is my upper limit. 

But, out of curiosity, what would be your bet -- higher than than mine, or lower?

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[keithers]

A couple of decent sized 300+BTC chunks being sold off on Stamp right now...  Brought us back down to our $615 range estimate

[MoreFun]

A couple of decent sized 300+BTC chunks being sold off on Stamp right now...  Brought us back down to our $615 range estimate

There was only one 1,000.00000000 BTC market sell with target price $600.00.  

Dumping this way might tell us he is not finished yet...

Also great timing...

[Elwar]

so who is still feeling bullish?

Getting some great rates at these low prices.

[kireinaha]

Someone clearly wants to keep bitcoin price suppressed for whatever reason. But it's all right, we should be happy that we have more opportunity to buy at such incredible low prices while we still can. It feels like it's dragging on forever, but it won't.

[inca]

Someone clearly wants to keep bitcoin price suppressed for whatever reason. But it's all right, we should be happy that we have more opportunity to buy at such incredible low prices while we still can. It feels like it's dragging on forever, but it won't.

Yes, I have significant funds coming in 7 days. Hopefully we stay in this range or dip lower by then.

The longer we sit here consolidating the better i think.

[dropt]

A couple of decent sized 300+BTC chunks being sold off on Stamp right now...  Brought us back down to our $615 range estimate

There was only one 1,000.00000000 BTC market sell with target price $600.00.  

Dumping this way might tell us he is not finished yet...

Also great timing...

Second one in 24 hours.  Someone's picking up the pace, but for what reason?

[Dragonkiller]

A couple of decent sized 300+BTC chunks being sold off on Stamp right now...  Brought us back down to our $615 range estimate

There was only one 1,000.00000000 BTC market sell with target price $600.00.  

Dumping this way might tell us he is not finished yet...

Also great timing...

Second one in 24 hours.  Someone's picking up the pace, but for what reason?

Weekly candle on bitcoinwisdom closes in a couple of hours. I think.

[wingsfan23]

I'm impressed with how well the market is handling these dumps. Price drops, then slowly grows right back up to near previous levels. I'm not sure if the dumper will be able to foster much more fear (not that I'm challenging them!).

[MoreFun]

I'm impressed with how well the market is handling these dumps. Price drops, then slowly grows right back up to near previous levels. I'm not sure if the dumper will be able to foster much more fear (not that I'm challenging them!).

We can just hope that this is not insider...

[wachtwoord]

I'm impressed with how well the market is handling these dumps. Price drops, then slowly grows right back up to near previous levels. I'm not sure if the dumper will be able to foster much more fear (not that I'm challenging them!).

We can just hope that this is not insider...

Insider of what?

Also, what about not challenging them? If you won't I will! I doubt it will have an effect at any rate

[wingsfan23]

I'm impressed with how well the market is handling these dumps. Price drops, then slowly grows right back up to near previous levels. I'm not sure if the dumper will be able to foster much more fear (not that I'm challenging them!).

We can just hope that this is not insider...

An insider that is trying to get out of BTC would hopefully want to maximize their fiat by selling a little slower.

If I had to guess, I would say it is either someone trying to keep price low in order to accumulate, or to collect interest on BFX longs, or to create a BFX long squeeze.

[kireinaha]

I'm impressed with how well the market is handling these dumps. Price drops, then slowly grows right back up to near previous levels. I'm not sure if the dumper will be able to foster much more fear (not that I'm challenging them!).

We can just hope that this is not insider...

An insider that is trying to get out of BTC would hopefully want to maximize their fiat by selling a little slower.

If I had to guess, I would say it is either someone trying to keep price low in order to accumulate, or to collect interest on BFX longs, or to create a BFX long squeeze.

I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of some type of government agency or cooperative effort between major banks. Let's not forget that there are many people who want bitcoin to fail, and it's not a stretch of the imagination to think that they're taking subversive efforts to dampen market sentiment. Why else would someone dump 1,000 BTC+ on the market all at once?

[MoreFun]

I'm impressed with how well the market is handling these dumps. Price drops, then slowly grows right back up to near previous levels. I'm not sure if the dumper will be able to foster much more fear (not that I'm challenging them!).

We can just hope that this is not insider...

This is open source, everyone's an insider.

Looks like I should rephrase the sentence for you and also for some others: We can just hope that this is not an entity with insider information...

[hyphymikey]

and all this talk about manipulation when someone is dumping in 500 batches while everyone else is expecting a bubble is...manipulative.

 

 but I have my doubt that the seller will simply stop or go away.

They will run out of coins eventually... Soon I think, as the dumps are getting closer together

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hyphymikey]

I'm impressed with how well the market is handling these dumps. Price drops, then slowly grows right back up to near previous levels. I'm not sure if the dumper will be able to foster much more fear (not that I'm challenging them!).

We can just hope that this is not insider...

An insider that is trying to get out of BTC would hopefully want to maximize their fiat by selling a little slower.

If I had to guess, I would say it is either someone trying to keep price low in order to accumulate, or to collect interest on BFX longs, or to create a BFX long squeeze.

I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of some type of government agency or cooperative effort between major banks. Let's not forget that there are many people who want bitcoin to fail, and it's not a stretch of the imagination to think that they're taking subversive efforts to dampen market sentiment. Why else would someone dump 1,000 BTC+ on the market all at once?

Buy 10K btc off market, dump 1K on market to drop the price. Buy the next 10K cheaper, sell some of those and repeat until you run out of fiat. Probably on a much larger scale though.

[MoreFun]

I have age poll results for you.