Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

Because socialism breads sociopaths.

experiment-shows-people-exposed-to-socialism-cheat-more

Ha! Try using any ultra-capitalist third-world country instead of East Germany, and you will reach the opposite conclusion...

yeah, you could say the same thing about capitalism.. socialism is not great, but people act like it's the devil and capitalism is perfect.

socialism is evil. capitalism is not perfect.

http://rexcurry.net/socialism-red-flags-socialists1b.jpg

& i'm all in for digital anarchy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10881213/The-coming-digital-anarchy.html

capitalism is as evil or worst than socialism, it is the pure slavery it is the real pyramid... stop being delusional.

True capitalism and a true free market,without any intervention or cronyism  that kind of capitalism-  or do you mean "crony capitalism is evil" ?

[1714685180]

1714685180

[1714685180]

1714685180

[1714685180]

1714685180

[1714685180]

1714685180

[1714685180]

1714685180

[mmitech]

capitalism is as evil or worst than socialism, it is the pure slavery it is the real pyramid... stop being delusional.

Smith, Proudhon and Marx understood something about how property inevitably leads to the slave pyramid, no need to move backwards, we tested everything and its failed, the next step is forwards.

neither capitalism or socialism will work in our modern society, very system was made to fix problem in short sight, we need something that fits not only our needs but the needs of the generations to come.

[empowering]

I am outta here... need to sleep even earlier tonight another early flight tomoz, and the sleeping pill has kicked in... last thing I replied to had the spelling mistakes of a 2 year old.... which is how I suddenly feel too...  night keep them Bitcoins safe 

[Kipsy89]

Wow!  That was an exciting day!  I hope tomorrow bitcoin Hi/Lo range is 7 entire dollars again!

Updates:
-The paint is still a bit sticky in the corners
-The grass grew 1.2mm today in the garden
-The layer of dust on top of the computer display is .1 microns thicker than yesterday
-31 people walked down the street outside my house today, 2 more than yesterday
I can't take this much excitement!!1!11!

Haha, whoa, nice examples the Bitcoin price compares to! You see, sometimes on TV when they talk about the Dow Jones or the Dollar and report a 1-2% change, they completely go nuts. This usually would be considered a sleeping pill in bitcoinland - maybe the one empowering took!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xyzzy099]

What exactly do you define as 'ultra-capitalist'?  Could you name a few such countries, just so I understand what you mean here?

Mine, for example.  A little bit less now than 20 years ago perhaps, but still much more plutocratic than the US.

So your definition of 'ultra-capitalism' is plutocracy?  I think the more plutocratic a society is, the less possible free markets are - and the lack of free markets is antithetical to any kind of real capitalism.  I would call such a country 'faux-capitalist', not 'ultra-capitalist'.

Crony capitalism is no more representative of "capitalism" than rigged elections are representative of "democracy".

[JorgeStolfi]

So your definition of 'ultra-capitalism' is plutocracy?  I think the more plutocratic a society is, the less possible free markets are - and the lack of free markets is antithetical to any kind of real capitalism.  I would call such a country 'faux-capitalist', not 'ultra-capitalist'.

Crony capitalism is no more representative of "capitalism" than rigged elections are representative of "democracy".

Hm, we have been through this discussion before, haven't we?

People seem to mean very different things by "free market".  The Libertarian definition seems to be "totally unregulated market" which in my experience instantly degenerates into oligopoly or monopoly market, typical of crony capitalism.  If "ultra-capitalist" is not that, what would it be?

I believe that a relatively free market can only be sustained if it is regulated by a government that is commited to it and is stronger than any individual supplier (or consumer), or any small group thereof. 

That is visibly no longer the case in the US, for many markets (such as TV, energy, banking, operating systems, ...)  It has always been worse in Brazil...

[Anastasios]

Maybe I'm going to look back in one year from now (or even 6 months)

I really like this chart.  

I think that the chart depicts historical aspects of BTC prices that constitutes, more or less, a more than 8X increase per year over the almost 4 year period; however, most of that growth occurred in 2011 - accordingly, the growth seems to be skewed towards 2011.  In this regard, there seem to exist decreasing intensities in the magnitude of each of the BTC bubbles, and maybe the increased BTC prices have made difficulties in having continued bubbles of 8x or greater?  

NONETHELESS, if another major bubble of 8x or more were to occur, then these previous price increases will merely be part of the description of an ongoing pattern.  

Personally, I am torn about what to believe, yet I am somewhat skeptical that continued bubbles of 8x or more is sustainable, even though I do believe that it is possible to have a few more 8x or greater bubbles in the coming years.

The chart above shows both bursts and drops, and the price bursts occurred:

early 2011  = 5x

mid 2011 = 41x

late 2011 = 3x

2012 = 3x

early 2013 = 18x

late 2013 = 9x


So far 2014, has been mostly downward, with a bit of gradual upward momentum in the last two months; however, it seems that we are still waiting to see what is going to happen in the remainder of 2014 in order to characterize BTC prices for this year and to prognosticate the direction of BTC.  

Surely, it does seem possible that BTC prices will remain more or less flat for the remainder of 2014; however, given the intensity of continued ongoing good news, various multimillion dollar investments into BTC, the appearance that several wall-street interests are looking into BTC investments, government regulations that are tolerable towards ongoing BTC growth, efforts to establish more user-friendly applications, greater BTC adoption and awareness and continued opportunities for liquidity, it is seeming less and less probable that BTC prices can be kept down for the remainder of 2014, absent some catastrophic negative BTC event.  Also, it seems that if BTC prices go past $850 or so in the next 6 months, then inevitably, BTC prices are going to spurt into a new ATH, in the range of $2,500 to $5,000.  

who wouldn't like that chart... it seems to imply more hype cycle iterations.

good observation on decreasing magnitude. If you look only at the major ones (41x, 18x, 9x), one could extrapolate that the next one might only reach 4.5x (if we put the start at $800, it would peak at $3,400)

I did a simple ratio analysis of this in March. I came to similar conclusions. As a matter of fact, there seems to be a differential pattern in the increase ratio between highs and the price increase factor.
Here is the analysis I did back then:
http://pastebin.com/TTJxrxxU
I suspected the price would stabilize at $600 (I used the same simple differential methods to find where prices seem to stabilize to after a bubble has popped). It has stabilized to $620, which is close, and that is the figure we should use to multiply with. $620*4.4122=$2735, which is even closer to the increase ratio result.

I made this kind of analysis since 2011, but back then there were very few results to make anything out of it. But I used other variables such as user base, number of transactions, volatility of price e.t.c. There is an obvious trend; bitcoins userbase only grows. It is impossible for the price to stay at $620, and extremely likely for the price to go up. A bubble is incoming, and there is a possibility yet another bubble will form after that one. Beyond that, due to the fact that the coins have spread to many more hands, it is unlikely extreme shortages of btc/oversupply of FIAT occurs again to make for a bubble - instead, price would appreciate linearly, not logarithmically.

Growth rates aside, one thing is for sure. Bitcoin is set to dominate the e-commerce industry. This page tells us of its limits: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability

[xyzzy099]

So your definition of 'ultra-capitalism' is plutocracy?  I think the more plutocratic a society is, the less possible free markets are - and the lack of free markets is antithetical to any kind of real capitalism.  I would call such a country 'faux-capitalist', not 'ultra-capitalist'.

Crony capitalism is no more representative of "capitalism" than rigged elections are representative of "democracy".

Hm, we have been through this discussion before, haven't we?

People seem to mean very different things by "free market".  The Libertarian definition seems to be "totally unregulated market" which in my experience instantly degenerates into oligopoly or monopoly market, typical of crony capitalism.  If "ultra-capitalist" is not that, what would it be?

I believe that a relatively free market can only be sustained if it is regulated by a government that is commited to it and is stronger than any individual supplier (or consumer), or any small group thereof. 

That is visibly no longer the case in the US, for many markets (such as TV, energy, banking, operating systems, ...)  It has always been worse in Brazil...

You may have discussed some of these principles with someone on this forum.  It was not me.

I see it exactly the opposite way from you:  The regulations you believe are necessary for a free market (ironic, if you think about it) are always and everywhere used to subvert market forces, and give preference to whichever entity has the most political control over the 'regulators'.

I can't speak for all Libertarians, but personally, I believe that an entity of some kind is necessary to prevent those who would deprive others of their life, liberty, or property from doing so - and I believe that acting in a manner that would make free markets less free is one way of imposing such deprivation, and consequently, should be prevented.

The goal is to minimize coercion as much as possible.  It will always be necessary, however, to coerce those who would harm others into not doing so.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

when is this thing gonna take off geez 

[adamstgBit]

620

[JorgeStolfi]

You may have discussed some of these principles with someone on this forum.  It was not me.

I see it exactly the opposite way from you:  The regulations you believe are necessary for a free market (ironic, if you think about it) are always and everywhere used to subvert market forces, and give preference to whichever entity has the most political control over the 'regulators'.

Yeah, sorry, it must have been in some other thread.

The "free" in capitalism's "free market" does  not mean "free from regulations", but rather that "suppliers and customers can freely choose each other, and new suppliers and customers can freely enter the market if it seems advantageous to them". Thus, even a highly regulated market can be free as long the regulations do not prevent the entry of competitors.  Theory says that such a free market will tend to achieve a fair price -- cost plus a small percentage of proft -- that makes it as profitable as any other market.

However, a strong government and proper regulation is necessary to keep a market free; because otherwise the leading suppliers will use their position to keep competition away, e.g. by dumping, controlling the supply of raw materials, false advertising, lobbying for exclusive laws, etc.. Without adequate antitrust and consumer protection laws, every market quickly becomes  a monopoly or oligopoly, that converges to a price that will maximize the suppliers' net revenue -- usually much higher than the fair price of a free market.

[Sandia]

With absolutely no evidence, I truly believe the price will jump 10% today or tomorrow.  All those orders just sitting there, not moving, for days.  Something explosive is going to happen.

[Adrian-x]

capitalism is as evil or worst than socialism, it is the pure slavery it is the real pyramid... stop being delusional.

Smith, Proudhon and Marx understood something about how property inevitably leads to the slave pyramid, no need to move backwards, we tested everything and its failed, the next step is forwards.

neither capitalism or socialism will work in our modern society, very system was made to fix problem in short sight, we need something that fits not only our needs but the needs of the generations to come.

The solution is here the teleology is here and so is the will, people are slowly waking up to find it. Long ago there was a meme (not a gif, but an idea that evolved humanity) that meme was that the earth is personal property to be claimed, defended, leveraged and traded, that meme's allowed the most efficient solution to solved the problem known as the tragedy of the commons, and its usefulness is now ending.

The next epoch is one where personal property is redefined, the future is about success as a whole, social reputation decentralized many to many governance and a cloud based ledger called the blockchain. The solution is coming just hang on; you can get a glimpse into how the solution works in this video by James D'angelo while trading carbon opens a door to a house of cards similar to our existing financial system, managing finite resources like land in a similar way changes the game for all of humanity in the present always.

    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[EFS]

Since when Wall Observer thread became Politics & Society?

Fuck the wild capitalism.

[Adrian-x]

So your definition of 'ultra-capitalism' is plutocracy?  I think the more plutocratic a society is, the less possible free markets are - and the lack of free markets is antithetical to any kind of real capitalism.  I would call such a country 'faux-capitalist', not 'ultra-capitalist'.

Crony capitalism is no more representative of "capitalism" than rigged elections are representative of "democracy".

Hm, we have been through this discussion before, haven't we?

People seem to mean very different things by "free market".  The Libertarian definition seems to be "totally unregulated market" which in my experience instantly degenerates into oligopoly or monopoly market, typical of crony capitalism.  If "ultra-capitalist" is not that, what would it be?

I believe that a relatively free market can only be sustained if it is regulated by a government that is commited to it and is stronger than any individual supplier (or consumer), or any small group thereof. 

That is visibly no longer the case in the US, for many markets (such as TV, energy, banking, operating systems, ...)  It has always been worse in Brazil...

You may have discussed some of these principles with someone on this forum.  It was not me.

I see it exactly the opposite way from you:  The regulations you believe are necessary for a free market (ironic, if you think about it) are always and everywhere used to subvert market forces, and give preference to whichever entity has the most political control over the 'regulators'.

I can't speak for all Libertarians, but personally, I believe that an entity of some kind is necessary to prevent those who would deprive others of their life, liberty, or property from doing so - and I believe that acting in a manner that would make free markets less free is one way of imposing such deprivation, and consequently, should be prevented.

The goal is to minimize coercion as much as possible.  It will always be necessary, however, to coerce those who would harm others into not doing so.

The blockchain, is that entity, it is public open and imitable, you voluntarily adhere to the rules and reap all the rewords of corporation in the market,  or you don't.

There is just one libeterian principle that is preventing laissez faire unregulated markets from functioning, and that is some people have rights at the expense of others, and some rights are inherited and accumulate at the expense of the whole, and while most preach non violence it only applies after violating the rights of everyone else. When all rights are equal and imitable anarchy will be the governing principle of choose, and markets will regulate themselves, at an efficiency not yet seen in history.  
  

[JayJuanGee]

Since when Wall Observer thread became Politics & Society?

Fuck the wild capitalism.

Since forever.

[Adrian-x]

Since when Wall Observer thread became Politics & Society?

Fuck the wild capitalism.

Since forever.

or until we go up or down,