Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adaseb]

Explanation

Looks like the big wall around 575 was removed.

About 1000 lots were removed.

[lemonte]

Explanation

Looks like the big wall around 575 was removed.

About 1000 lots were removed.

It was moved to $560 the other day and is still there.

[Essex343]

Explanation

Looks like the big wall around 575 was removed.

About 1000 lots were removed.

It was moved to $560 the other day and is still there.

A few hours ago, there was 3100 BTC in bids to $570. Now there is 2100. Just sayin.

[windjc]

Most of you guys seem to miss the point, that mostly the nutters are buying BTC, while it's unknown on what exactly happened to goxcoins.
The nutters are fanatical enough to ignore this threat, that those coins could have been stolen by a single thief, who would now have the power to crash the entire market beyond recovery.

Blind gambling isn't investing.

What are you invested in?

(this should be a fun non-answer)

[Essex343]

So..... test of 550-560 incoming? Then maybe we go up? Just kinda hoping I don't have to sit through months of bear market.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Most of you guys seem to miss the point, that mostly the nutters are buying BTC, while it's unknown on what exactly happened to goxcoins.
The nutters are fanatical enough to ignore this threat, that those coins could have been stolen by a single thief, who would now have the power to crash the entire market beyond recovery.

Blind gambling isn't investing.

What are you invested in?

(this should be a fun non-answer)

Broadly speaking, I prefer the secondary sector of the economy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

Explanation

Looks like the big wall around 575 was removed.

About 1000 lots were removed.

It was moved to $560 the other day and is still there.

A few hours ago, there was 3100 BTC in bids to $570. Now there is 2100. Just sayin.

I know... the supports are a little bit illusory. It seems like they are less there for support as much as they are there to guide the market. Place them in one spot... then pull them down, watch people panic, repeat and buy cheap.

[windjc]

Most of you guys seem to miss the point, that mostly the nutters are buying BTC, while it's unknown on what exactly happened to goxcoins.
The nutters are fanatical enough to ignore this threat, that those coins could have been stolen by a single thief, who would now have the power to crash the entire market beyond recovery.

Blind gambling isn't investing.

What are you invested in?

(this should be a fun non-answer)

Broadly speaking, I prefer the secondary sector of the economy.

Ah, yes, you are a conservative investor. Why are you even in this forum?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Ah, yes, you are a conservative investor. Why are you even in this forum?

As I've said before, I like the general idea of open sourced monetary systems. I think that bitcoin itself doesn't have much practical value beyond the black market, but I think that the general idea has a lot of potential for future development.

[Newbie1022]

The Gox s--- is getting old. If you don't want to risk that, there are safer exchanges and options for getting your coins that have been developed. I am not terribly bullish on the price due to overleveraging, but the Gox thing is turning into a straw man. Yes, Karpales probably stole all of them and is a terrible prick -- it happens. Now, let's focus on actual concerns:
(1) Wall Street = new buyers but also more manipulation;
(2) Unwinding of leveraging on some exchanges while it picks up on other exchanges;
(3) Do we need a black market (because a 5% discount from Dell doesn't really do it for me when I, along with most people tech savvy enough to even know what Bitcoin is, buy directly from the developers retail because we know that there is a price mark up); and
(4) What additional changes can be done to make Bitcoin a more attractive option to the unbanked as well as study abroad students who are trying to send a portion of their student loans back home (either for family or, more commonly, for summer expenses)

Those... those are real questions. This Gox s--- isn't even worth being called FUD because nobody cares (obviously it is terrible what happened and people care about it not happening again, but nobody cares about the conspiracy theory side of it because that has zero to do with present security conditions).

[lay785]

Ah, yes, you are a conservative investor. Why are you even in this forum?

As I've said before, I like the general idea of open sourced monetary systems. I think that bitcoin itself doesn't have much practical value beyond the black market, but I think that the general idea has a lot of potential for future development.

have you seen the prices + exchange rates that banks + western union charge.... theres a very legitimate use of bitcoins in currency exchange + transfers...

[dreamspark]

So..... test of 550-560 incoming? Then maybe we go up? Just kinda hoping I don't have to sit through months of bear market.

Just step away from the charts and enjoy your summer, nothing to see here!

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Ah, yes, you are a conservative investor. Why are you even in this forum?

As I've said before, I like the general idea of open sourced monetary systems. I think that bitcoin itself doesn't have much practical value beyond the black market, but I think that the general idea has a lot of potential for future development.

have you seen the prices + exchange rates that banks + western union charge.... theres a very legitimate use of bitcoins in currency exchange + transfers...

I see that TransferWise has more potential for this use, mainly because of security and simplicity. But I consider the entire field of international money transfer services to be fragile, because banks have the ability just to lower their overcharged rates and kill the competition, if the competition becomes a real threat.

[JayJuanGee]

Quote from the willy report.

Mt. Gox was always, always, the first mover. BTC China seemed to react within 1 or 2 minutes, sometimes leading to a higher proportional rise in price, sure, but it was NEVER the first mover. In my eyes, this means Mt. Gox and not BTC China was leading the market.

I have yet to see any good arguments against this report. [ ... ] Do you honestly think btc price would be in the hundreds if it was not for MtGox?

When I looked at the plots in that report, I had the exact opposite impression.  The price at MtGOX increased by large discrete jumps every time "Markus" did his buys, but there did not seem to be an immediate echo of those jumps in China.  My reading is that "Markus" was merely doing arbitrage with China, buying cheap coins at MtGOX and seling them over there (presumably on BTC-China, which at the time had the largest volume).

Later, when "Markus" was replaced by the "Willy" robot, it became harder to tell who was leading.

Note that the bubble started two months after Huobi's opening and 4 months after OKCoin's.  The volume at Huobi grew steadily from ~130 BTC/day during September and October to ~30 kBTC/day in November, and the other Chinese exchanges had similar growth.   In November OKCoin had ~30 kBTC/day too, and BTC-China had ~50 kBTC/day, whereas MtGOX barely had dubled its volume to ~25 kBTC/day.

On Nov/18 and Nov/19 there were large spikes at those three Chinese exchanges; at Huobi and OKCoin the all-time high actually was on Nov/19.  The corresponding rises at MtGOX on those days were much smaller (the high was only 3/4 of the Nov/29 ATH).  To me, all these details (and common sense) are more consistent with China, rather than MtGOX, driving the November bubble.

Whether "Markus"/"Willy" was doing its thing with real dollars or with virtual "goxDollars", and whether its owner eventually got the money out of China, are separate questions.

The claim that *I* find absurd is that a single trader at MtGOX could pump the price up from 100$ to 1200$ over a whole month, all over he world, including the huge Chinese market -- and that the the price would stay at pumped-up levels, six months after MtGOX's collapse.

oh come on people, where you not there?
at one point there was so much activity exchanges all over were lagging / crashing constantly. it took me an hour to log in and make a trade!
this was no 1 man pump...
this what happened:



thank you Jorge, it is an absurd piece of FUD...

That's a much better summary of what seemed to happen and what was probably detectable, Adam....

[kurious]

Anyone struggling to get onto Poloniex..?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

Anyone struggling to get onto Poloniex..?

They've been doing a domain name transfer and the dns is now propagating.

https://twitter.com/Poloniex

[kurious]

Anyone struggling to get onto Poloniex..?

They've been doing a domain name transfer and the dns is now propagating.

https://twitter.com/Poloniex

Thanks! 

[Asrael999]

Re the buying on Gox and selling in China - and the subsequent dump
It is highly likely that this was driven by a significant Chinese buyer in collusion with western based confederates seeking to remove their funds from China to evade the corruption probes that are ongoing within the Chinese state.
Someone or a group of someones wished to move USD millions from China into the West quickly (to evade confiscation) using methods that the PBOC were unable to trace. Acting in concert with a small group of westerners , who work orders for their client - buying bitcoin in the west and selling them in China to the client. This causes the initial increase in demand for coins (several 100,000 BTC) - call it $40-100mm CNY equivalent at prices below $500-$600.
(The westerners probably did this in exchange for a percentage cut of the USD amount successfully moved from China.)
This initial spike primes the bubble and unleashes the horde who then run the price up into the 1,000's, during which time the initial buyer(s) dump their coins via stamp , gox and other Western Exchanges, and continue to do so past the bubble (and possibly still continue to do), driving the price down until the initial investor is fully out of Bitcoin and into USD that the PBOC cannot trace.

Such an exercise would also explain the Chinese response to bitcoin and the Chinese authorities attempts to prevent fiat flows into BTC since the November/December bubble.