Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Kupsi]

I believe these two charts are healthy. No worries here. Aiming at new all time high in September or October.


Bitcoin days destroyed 28 days average is low:

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=28&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


Number of transactions are going up again after the summer holiday:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[deadley]

are we going full bear soon? where is the BOUNCE?

I don't think, we again got support around 560, but bounce is not that kind like before.
So we have to wait more now for bounce back the price to 590-600 level.

[Jesus Christ]

are we going full bear soon? where is the BOUNCE?

I don't think, we again got support around 560, but bounce is not that kind like before.
So we have to wait more now for bounce back the price to 590-600 level.

that's the thing -- last time off 560 we bounced hard and fast. this time, nothing. struggling. tells me support is not strong here anymore.

There is NO support, expect the next couple months of slowly dipping prices. Come back at the end of Fall if you want some action.

[deadley]

are we going full bear soon? where is the BOUNCE?

I don't think, we again got support around 560, but bounce is not that kind like before.
So we have to wait more now for bounce back the price to 590-600 level.

that's the thing -- last time off 560 we bounced hard and fast. this time, nothing. struggling. tells me support is not strong here anymore.

It's not necessary everytime we will get fast and hard bounce back.
Sometime slow bounce back is better then fast and hard bounce back.

[kireinaha]

Rakuten coming on board:
http://www.coindesk.com/rakuten-us-subsidiary-bitcoin/

Doesn't matter, I'm selling now. Time to get out fellas.

Can I have your jezus coins?

Sorry, I don't do altcoins. Bearish times for BTC ahead, I'm afraid.

If Jesus Christ decides to sell... then I think it's time to sell.

[byronbb]

Good post on reddit attempting to guestimate where the rotting longs on bitfinex will see a margin call.


http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2dag4l/bfx_margin_call_watchand_calculations/

[derpinheimer]

are we going full bear soon? where is the BOUNCE?

I don't think, we again got support around 560, but bounce is not that kind like before.
So we have to wait more now for bounce back the price to 590-600 level.

that's the thing -- last time off 560 we bounced hard and fast. this time, nothing. struggling. tells me support is not strong here anymore.

There is NO support, expect the next couple months of slowly dipping prices. Come back at the end of Fall if you want some action.

Correct. This is a steady drop when you look at the 1 year charts. My guess is a $350 bottom.

[rebuilder]

With Metcalfe's law, bitcoin is indeed quite promising, as the users have been increasing and are expected to increase further.
This means the value of bitcoin is increasing. Could this argument be valid?

We do not know whether the number of "bitcoin users" is increasing.

The sources that I know (such as blockchan.info) do not give that information.  They give some quantities (such as wallet software downloads, transactions per day, total BTC volume per day) from which some people claim to be able to derive the number of users.  However, those quantities include an unknown amount of operations that do not imply real additional use.  Some of them (like total BTC volume) have been relatively constant for the last 6 months.  Moreover, there is no information at all about people who stopped "using" bitcoin, e.g. after buying a bit just for curiosity.

Yes, we actually do.

blockchain.info stats aren't the only source saying so. Online wallet stats, number of vendors accepting Bitcoin... there's plenty of evidence of growth well above linear increase (cue: "doesn't mean it's long-term exponential").

Your argument runs down to: but all those stats could be faked/manipulated by entities high enough in the decision chain of exchanges or websites. While theoretically possible, you have to ask yourself it is the most likely explanation of the data.

There's plenty of fraud and deception in the Bitcoin ecosystem, but what you seem to have in mind is a level of organized deception that you cannot simply "claim" to be the reason for the data. If you have solid proof for it, let us know. Otherwise, I could dismiss anthropogenic global warming by claiming that measuring stations world wide were manipulated by Jewish space lizards -- it's a possibility, y'know.

tl;dr The most likely reason to generate data indicating exponential growth in usage is actual usage. Claiming otherwise requires evidence, which I have yet to see.

It doesn't have to be manipulation. Say you're laundering coins on a regular basis. Say you're using Blockchain.info to do this. How many throwaway wallets a month would an automated system built for this purpose generate? What about several of them?

[empowering]

margin and leverage = evil

[U.S. Treasury]

Sorry, I don't do altcoins. Bearish times for BTC ahead, I'm afraid.

If Jesus Christ decides to sell... then I think it's time to sell.

We're selling too, USDcoin TO THAA MOON! CCMF!

[empowering]

Sorry, I don't do altcoins. Bearish times for BTC ahead, I'm afraid.

If Jesus Christ decides to sell... then I think it's time to sell.

We're selling too, USDcoin TO THAA MOON! CCMF!

awhh how cute and you two joining day buddies and everything... awhhh

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Adrian-x]

I'm beginning to think coins are accumulating disproportionately to the adoption rate, with out the hard data it feels like we're headed into a 2011 style dry test of faith.

I think there is about a 40% chance we will be grinding lower or sideways or much the same over a prolonged period maybe even as long as 12 months optimistically seeing a spike into the thousands before the new year.

[kireinaha]

This has to be the weakest bull trap I've ever seen. It will break soon followed by several more weeks of sideways down trending. TERA tried to tell you all this but you drove her away for having a "contrarian" opinion.

The bulls right now:

[empowering]

pfffffffffffft

[JayJuanGee]

Anyone noticed that the value of Bitcoin has risen quite a lot the last half year, regardless the price of bitcoin?

Whoa what do you mean by that? The price is the measure of how valuable a Bitcoin is, isn't it? I don't seem to be getting what you're trying to say here. Please enlighten us, man

The utility of bitcoin is the sum of the benefits derived from its applications by its users.

The value of bitcoin is the size of its transactional economy over a given period.

The price of bitcoin is wherever the market happens to clear.

Only in the case of perfectly rational actors under perfectly efficient condtions will these three coincide.

I would like to frame this on my wall, b/c it is a GREAT reminder to keep clear about which one(s) of these you are talking about.  Did monkey come up with this framework?      If so, s/he is Brilliant.

[inca]

This has to be the weakest bull trap I've ever seen. It will break soon followed by several more weeks of sideways down trending. TERA tried to tell you all this but you drove her away for having a "contrarian" opinion.

The bulls right now:

Yap yap yap. We get it you sold. Pathetic.

[dropt]

This has to be the weakest bull trap I've ever seen. It will break soon followed by several more weeks of sideways down trending. TERA tried to tell you all this but you drove her away for having a "contrarian" opinion.

The bulls right now:

http://im41.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/wpid-fingers-in-ears3.jpeg

I'm a bull and just sent 5k to the exchange.  I'm buying while all you dipshits sell.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation