Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BTCfan1]

ah dang TA says sell all now b4 it crashes 1/2 a percent. 

Wait for a retest of $530. If it does that, then back to $600+ we go.
If no retest, then a few weeks plumbing the depths of $400 is in store...

this sounds pretty reasonable, but i dont think it will dip past 440-450

[WillyBTC]

ah dang TA says sell all now b4 it crashes 1/2 a percent. 

Wait for a retest of $530. If it does that, then back to $600+ we go.
If no retest, then a few weeks plumbing the depths of $400 is in store...

this sounds pretty reasonable, but i dont think it will dip past 440-450

Hard to say. The weekly chart is really, really scary looking. I hope momentum turns around. For the short term, it looks to me like we had a failed upside breakout, so down is likely coming. I'm looking at $470-480 short term, but longer term, it could get much worse.

[rpietila]

How low do you think it will go, and why is it "worse"? Do you believe that BTC economy can be quenched merely by taking price lower? There was a growing BTC economy in 2012 at the average price of $10 if you don't remember... Now instead of 10000s, we have about 1 million owners of BTC and everything is much more solid.

[jeezy]

we have about 1 million owners of BTC

Way more my brother, way more.

[WillyBTC]

How low do you think it will go, and why is it "worse"? Do you believe that BTC economy can be quenched merely by taking price lower? There was a growing BTC economy in 2012 at the average price of $10 if you don't remember... Now instead of 10000s, we have about 1 million owners of BTC and everything is much more solid.

"Worse" for the BTC/USD exchange rate -- I don't think price is really any threat to the future of the protocol, or the BTC economy, or anything like that. I have no idea how low (or high) it will go. It's just that when I look at the weekly chart, it almost looks as if the run to 680s was a bubble cycle in and of itself, and on this time frame, downside momentum is only increasing. It's just a bit scary to look at. I'm weary to take any position on the organic growth of users, as I find the data we have very inconclusive.

[nioc]

How many dumpers are left after a nine month bear market? I don't know except that there are less than there were yesterday and far less than last month. at some point, the trend will reverse and it's possible that it already happened. I don't know and this isn't a recommendation, but the longer we go sideways, the more bullish I get.

I am only quoting this post because it is the last of a series of 9 that you posted today/yesterday.  The first was wonderful.  They were shining nuggets in this mountain of a thread.  Thank you.

Ok here is the first one.

These are the times that try a Bitcoiner's soul. Every time this happens--on average once a year--I get amazed at how painful it is.  This is the kind of market that separates the men from the boys. I've been monkey-hammered in trade after trade, so I forget that I'm still up over %10,000 in fiat terms from my original investment. Bad things seem to happen all at once, and my personal life and net worth get crushed simultaneously and every time I have to slowly claw my way back. Many of you are in a similar situation. Take heart. We are making history.  If this trip throws your life out of balance, then take a break. we'll still be here when you get back.  I was up to two cartons of cigarettes a week and letting my life go to shit. That means I care too much to make objective decisions.

I'm still bullish long term, but I just don't what's going to happen next. I just know that I'm either going to make a lot of money or I'm going to learn something. I can live with that.

Also.....

<snip>
Life is far from fair, but everyone reading this at least has an internet connection so you should probably be happy life is unfair. You are likely a beneficiary of that unfairness if you look at the big picture.

Happy Thanksgiving

[rpietila]

If you don't think that 6 consecutive weeks down, followed by a high-volume capitulation, means that we are oversold, you deserve to sell all your bitcoins NOW.

[zby]

Looks like a textbook Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is forming....

Very Bullish

In my experience 'a pattern is forming' has zero information for trading - because it is usually the last step that is important. H&S is for example an uptrend - that is suddenly broken - this is the trend break that is the important thing. Maybe with the exception with triangles - they do tend to break in the direction of the trend - so they can be played easily.

[WillyBTC]

Regarding oversold.... sure. But any good trader knows that oversold conditions can stay embedded in a strong downtrend. Oversold conditions are most useful to tell you "don't sell/short here", but it doesn't mean we can't go lower.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

If you don't think that 6 consecutive weeks down, followed by a high-volume capitulation, means that we are oversold, you deserve to sell all your bitcoins NOW.

I don't think we'll go lower than $450 again, but I definitely don't think we will be at a much higher price in a few week/months either.
The Bitlicense is a very problematic business, until that is not resolved we can't go anywhere (as somebody said, "it could crush the business"). Also, the Winklevoss ETF must be approved first too I'm afraid.

There simply isn't enough interest right now in market buying BTC and bring it higher.

I do agree that things look a lot more solid this time around. But I think we will be in this $450-$600 for a very long time, until the Bitlicense and the Winklevoss ETF will be ready.

[samsonn25]

BTC price has been rising and stayed above its weekly EMA since June 2012 and hasn't crossed it on a downslope since $530/430 in THE END OF March 2014.

It was undersold until it broke out June 1 to $660-680

Its now on a downtrend and oversold the last 2-3 weeks under the ema which is sliding from $640 on June 8 to $556 today.

Major support at $445

[rpietila]

If you don't think that 6 consecutive weeks down, followed by a high-volume capitulation, means that we are oversold, you deserve to sell all your bitcoins NOW.

I don't think we'll go lower than $450 again, but I definitely don't think we will be at a much higher price in a few week/months either.
The Bitlicense is a very problematic business, until that is not resolved we can't go anywhere (as somebody said, "it could crush the business"). Also, the Winklevoss ETF must be approved first too I'm afraid.

Oh please - the Winklevoss etf is 18 months old news, and during this time BTC is up an order of magnitude.

Bitlicence tells that regulators' pants are wet when facing an innovation that could put them out of business. If you care, set your business up somewhere else except NY (the place has 0.3% of world  population after all). If you don't care, switch to Monero.

[Phillis]

definitely looks like an inverse head and shoulders, plus we are quite oversold. I'm exceptionally bullish atm.

[windjc]

If you don't think that 6 consecutive weeks down, followed by a high-volume capitulation, means that we are oversold, you deserve to sell all your bitcoins NOW.

High volume capitulation???!!! Volume is at a all time low. Every "capitulation" has less and less volume.

You got to come up with something better than that, because that statement is patently false.

[WillyBTC]

We're just slowly sliding..... if history serves as example, the panic has yet to surface and thus, neither has capitulation. That is not to say that we NEED another capitulation, but it's really beginning to feel as though it's inevitable. How many failed breakouts before bulls start to panic again?

[rpietila]

If volume is lower and lower in a capitulation, it is a sign of a lack of sellers.

(Buyers are patently lacking, otherwise we were not in a downtrend at all..)

[WillyBTC]

If volume is lower and lower in a capitulation, it is a sign of a lack of sellers.

(Buyers are patently lacking, otherwise we were not in a downtrend at all..)

What do you consider to be a capitulation? What I see is low volume consolidation after a (likely) failed rally. That's normal under any circumstance. Capitulation (and seller exhaustion) is what would happen at the bottom of a steep downtrend from here. This is just noise/consolidation for now. But it has a downward bias still, IMO.

[windjc]

If volume is lower and lower in a capitulation, it is a sign of a lack of sellers.

(Buyers are patently lacking, otherwise we were not in a downtrend at all..)

Besides the fact that you just contradicted your last post that called it high volume capitulation, you're also wrong.

When we fell to $66 that was on higher capitulation volume than before.

[mmitech]

If you don't think that 6 consecutive weeks down, followed by a high-volume capitulation, means that we are oversold, you deserve to sell all your bitcoins NOW.

GTFO you clown, you keep saying the same from $680, and you call a bottom each time....

[mmitech]

If volume is lower and lower in a capitulation, it is a sign of a lack of sellers.

(Buyers are patently lacking, otherwise we were not in a downtrend at all..)

I can hear you crying, your dreams going away ?