Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cbeast]

8 days left before commenting period for Russian law against Bitcoin.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2k6aiq/20141024_8_days_left_before_commenting_period_for/

Please keep us posted. We're hoping for another Russian Bitcoin ban.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tarmi]

there will be blood today.

order book is looking anemic on stamp.

[noobtrader]

in my noob opinion, all this whale surely be big miner selling cheap coin because their miner already roi and they can sell at any price above electricity and still profit.  why they sell cheap, so that new miner are discouraged and keep them in power literally. this is a race to the fair price, which is their price for bitcoin. as new miner are discouraged they assume that difficulty will soon be lower further increase their profit.

true, and by the end of the year new or small years might also face the increasing difficulty problem, which might further decrease the number of small miners in the mining competition.

This is accurate. Another possibility is that the strongest remain last. Don't forget though, that when the halving occurs, the mining profits (at these prices) will be a "no go" towards any small or bigger farm. Interesting to see what happens by then though.

+1,
or if adoption increases/acceptable regulation/more good news . this will trigger miner to hoard instead of dumping and buyer and speculator all buying. then price will shoot to da moon.

its good to be a permabull isnt

[JorgeStolfi]

All the charts on blockchain show very steady growth, transactional volume is up 300% since this time last year. Number of transactions is all time high, as is daily wallets used

Price too is still 3x last year, but that is still the effect of the November bubble.  We cannot tell whether other markets (responsible for previous bubbles) have been growing in the meantime.

Moreover, the blockchain USD traffic since January does not show growth where expected, so a large component of the traffic is probably not payments but merely hot/cold swapping, tumbling, deposits/withdrawals, etc..

As for wallets, it would be necesary to know how many hold significant funds.

[ShroomsKit]

Cheap coins on sale now. Mr Bearwhale has made a generous donation. 

Give it up. Nobody falls for the "cheap coins" thing anymore.

[noobtrader]

Cheap coins on sale now. Mr Bearwhale has made a generous donation. 

Give it up. Nobody falls for the "cheap coins" thing anymore.

shroomskit, one thing i want you to know... you are not my hero. thankyou

[zby]

Some one should make a bitcoin-scams chart. Would be a great bearish indicator.

A recent one: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=833468.0

[octaft]

Please state your understanding of what is going on, then.

You're always making bold assertions. "I assume this" "I suspect this"

I don't know, but I don't make shit up all the time like you do.

I do not know where to get reliable data on bitcoin usage.

Exactly, so shut the fuck up

Aren't you a trader? Can't you make money whether the price is $10 or $1000? Why be mad at the guy? At least he's not like "DEFI GOING DOWN OMG DOOOOOM AND FUKKIN GLOOOOOM C U @ 5 FGTS!" That is much more trollish than what this dude is doing.

For that matter, at least he admits he could be wrong and is making assumptions. How many people do you see speaking in absolute, certain terms about where the price is going, in either direction? Even though it is impossible to be "certain" about future events. Even that is more trollish to me than a guy giving what he perceives to be an honest analysis and doing so in a relatively polite manner.

Just take it for what it is: just another dudes analysis. Nobody can force you to agree with it, but you can certainly give yourself an aneurysm getting mad over so little.

Some call him a troll, but honestly I don't think a troll would ever bother to put that much work into trolling. Look at a guy like Lambchop: he's putting in hardly any effort at all, and he STILL pisses some people off. Why would a guy work so hard at it when all you have to do is mimic lambchop and be successful at trolling?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tarmi]

we are starting our climb to 500 !

just waiting someone to tell how china is bullish.

[MrPiggles]

Aren't you a trader? Can't you make money whether the price is $10 or $1000? Why be mad at the guy? At least he's not like "DEFI GOING DOWN OMG DOOOOOM AND FUKKIN GLOOOOOM C U @ 5 FGTS!" That is much more trollish than what this dude is doing.

Nope I do not trade. I would have thought that was apparent when my last question was asking people what shorting is. Never ever have I said I trade bitcoin.

[noobtrader]

is Japan to the bitcoin rescue
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/17508/bitcoin-regulation-in-japan/

Japan has recognized Bitcoin’s great potential, and, in a gallant act of confidence, has asked members within the bitcoin industry to form a self-regulatory authority.

[octaft]

Aren't you a trader? Can't you make money whether the price is $10 or $1000? Why be mad at the guy? At least he's not like "DEFI GOING DOWN OMG DOOOOOM AND FUKKIN GLOOOOOM C U @ 5 FGTS!" That is much more trollish than what this dude is doing.

Nope I do not trade. I would have thought that was apparent when my last question was asking people what shorting is. Never ever have I said I trade bitcoin.

Hmm I didn't see you ask that, my bad.

[Faustian]

is Japan to the bitcoin rescue
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/17508/bitcoin-regulation-in-japan/

Japan has recognized Bitcoin’s great potential, and, in a gallant act of confidence, has asked members within the bitcoin industry to form a self-regulatory authority.

Also England.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=833466.msg9312329#msg9312329

[lyth0s]

Cheap coins on sale now. Mr Bearwhale has made a generous donation. 

Give it up. Nobody falls for the "cheap coins" thing anymore.

Look at all the positive things going on in bitcoin. 2 years from now everyone will be calling today's coins cheap, even the perma-bears. The network is growing much faster than bitcoin price, but it'll catch up once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).

Especially with remittances and projects similar to btcjam and openbazzar come out.

Right now most people are selling, but when consumerism increases hopefully you won't miss the boat.

[cbeast]

Cheap coins on sale now. Mr Bearwhale has made a generous donation. 

Give it up. Nobody falls for the "cheap coins" thing anymore.

Look at all the positive things going on in bitcoin. 2 years from now everyone will be calling today's coins cheap, even the perma-bears. The network is growing much faster than bitcoin price, but it'll catch up once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).

Especially with remittances and projects similar to btcjam and openbazzar come out.

Right now most people are selling, but when consumerism increases hopefully you won't miss the boat.

It's not that. When (not IF) the panic buying "correction" comes in, good luck getting in a trade before it peaks again. All you get is cancelled orders and apologies from the exchanges.

[octaft]

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).

I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?

My opinion is that bitcoin's huge flaw in regards to regular consumer usage is that two of its major benefits both work in favor of the merchant.

Can't reverse transactions: benefits the merchant, makes it harder for them to get ripped off, but easier for the consumer to be ripped off, or to force them to accept what could be an inferior product with no guarantee of a refund.

Much cheaper on fees: benefits the merchant. Consumers don't pay fees on credit cards or cash, anyway, except interest fees for CC's when you don't cover what you bought, but that's fair because you're borrowing money from the issuing bank. In fact, the consumer will see a fee where they wouldn't with other methods, as they have to pay the fee when they send the bitcoins.

Unfortunately, it's not the merchant you need to cater to in business, it's the consumer. I think consumers are going to continue to prefer the safety and reversibility of transactions using other methods for the foreseeable future.

The only way it would work is if merchants provided a nice discount for using bitcoin, but not all merchants will want to do that, and not all consumers will want to go through the trouble of procuring bitcoins just to save 5% or something. Some of the merchants might have such small profit margins that they are simply unable to offer such a discount and still show a profit.

My opinion is the best hope is as a way to send large amounts of money quickly. I think banking on the consumer is very likely to be a lost cause, and I think a lot of the merchants accepting bitcoin are doing so as a publicity stunt and as a way to gain some business from the bitcoin crowd that they wouldn't be getting, otherwise. Not to mention the vast majority of them effectively instantly sell them.

It's not enough to be slightly better for people to want to go through the trouble of changing the status quo. It's got to be significantly better. I think for sending large amounts of money, this is true: it IS significantly easier, generally faster, and cheaper. The same can't necessarily be said for its use in the consumer/merchant relationship.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[lyth0s]

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).

I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?

My opinion is that bitcoin's huge flaw in regards to regular consumer usage is that two of its major benefits both work in favor of the merchant.

Can't reverse transactions: benefits the merchant, makes it harder for them to get ripped off, but easier for the consumer to be ripped off, or to force them to accept what could be an inferior product with no guarantee of a refund.

Much cheaper on fees: benefits the merchant. Consumers don't pay fees on credit cards or cash, anyway, except interest fees for CC's when you don't cover what you bought, but that's fair because you're borrowing money from the issuing bank. In fact, the consumer will see a fee where they wouldn't with other methods, as they have to pay the fee when they send the bitcoins.

Unfortunately, it's not the merchant you need to cater to in business, it's the consumer. I think consumers are going to continue to prefer the safety and reversibility of transactions using other methods for the foreseeable future.

The only way it would work is if merchants provided a nice discount for using bitcoin, but not all merchants will want to do that, and not all consumers will want to go through the trouble of procuring bitcoins just to save 5% or something. Some of the merchants might have such small profit margins that they are simply unable to offer such a discount and still show a profit.

My opinion is the best hope is as a way to send large amounts of money quickly. I think banking on the consumer is very likely to be a lost cause, and I think a lot of the merchants accepting bitcoin are doing so as a publicity stunt and as a way to gain some business from the bitcoin crowd that they wouldn't be getting, otherwise. Not to mention the vast majority of them effectively instantly sell them.

It's not enough to be slightly better for people to want to go through the trouble of changing the status quo. It's got to be significantly better. I think for sending large amounts of money, this is true: it IS significantly easier, generally faster, and cheaper. The same can't necessarily be said for its use in the consumer/merchant relationship.

Much like many gas stations in the US give a cash discount or small mom and pop stores give cash discounts, I believe this will happen for bitcoin as well.

Other advantages for consumers will be:
1. protection against inflation
2. No frozen accounts like Cyprus
3. Banking for the 6+ billion people in the world that don't have banking
4. Remittances -- Save 10%+ on sending money to 3rd world countries
5. Internet transactions (usually seller based) -- Too many people scam with other services like paypal, I would gladly take a 5% cut off my revenue to know that my transaction is irreversible and I cannot be scammed by a buyer
6. Secondary platforms such as a decentralized stock market. -- China will go ape shit over this. All they have right now is real estate and wealth management products (essentially a ponzi scheme). This will allow people in countries that attempt to stop capital flight to actually have oversees investments.

I'm sure there is more, but that is a decent start.