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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
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8/4 - 16 (12.9%)
8/11 - 8 (6.5%)
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8/25 - 8 (6.5%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26491192 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Davyd05
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October 24, 2014, 12:07:12 PM

Shorts down to 8500??? Looks like bears are starting closing their positions.

Yeah Ive been watching that. But cant tell if this is a bear trap developing or luring for the final bull trap.
octaft
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October 24, 2014, 12:07:51 PM


Much like many gas stations in the US give a cash discount or small mom and pop stores give cash discounts, I believe this will happen for bitcoin as well.

Other advantages for consumers will be:
1. protection against inflation
2. No frozen accounts like Cyprus
3. Banking for the 6+ billion people in the world that don't have banking
4. Remittances -- Save 10%+ on sending money to 3rd world countries
5. Internet transactions (usually seller based) -- Too many people scam with other services like paypal, I would gladly take a 5% cut off my revenue to know that my transaction is irreversible and I cannot be scammed by a buyer
6. Secondary platforms such as a decentralized stock market. -- China will go ape shit over this. All they have right now is real estate and wealth management products (essentially a ponzi scheme). This will allow people in countries that attempt to stop capital flight to actually have oversees investments.

I'm sure there is more, but that is a decent start.

1-3) More applicable as a store of value argument than a consumer/merchant viability one. I guess the banking for third world country things is okay, if people in third world countries want to buy stuff from people accepting bitcoin.
4) I agree with this, and say so in my post. It's a good way to send money relatively cheaply and quickly.
5) I agree it benefits the seller, but you don't cater to the merchant, you cater to the consumer. The consumer is the one paying, and he has to pay in bitcoins. The consumer is the one with no recourse if he gets screwed over.
6) Again, not really addressing the consumer/merchant relationship.

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).


bad points

All bad points, octaft.

Consumers get multiplied x5 or x10 his purchasing power by year, instead of get it diluted in the fiat scheme
Paypal and others will offer chargebacks
Consumers bypass the corrupt banking system
Consumers bypass the corrupt central state system
Consumers get, in fact, discount price or heavy discount price

It´s a win-win situation that everyone would want, except the actual overlords of the system that right now are probably trying to undermine crypto via manipulation, overregulation and paying trolls

1) What about the guys who bought at 1000? How is their purchasing power doing? I'm not taunting people who bought near the top, my point is simply that you can't say this is a benefit, because there is no guarantee that bitcoins value continues to rise indefinitely, and there is serious risk involved (whether perceived or reality I'll leave it up to you to decide, either will suffice for what I'm arguing) that the whole thing could plummet while you're keeping your purchasing power in bitcoins.
2) Paypal is very consumer friendly and merchant unfriendly. This is exactly what the consumer wants.
3-4) There is no guarantee enough consumers will care about any of that strongly enough to be willing to make changes. I'll concede that maybe in some countries this would be enough, but in order to get the 5-6 figure prices everyone talks about, you'd need more than just those countries.
5) The most I've seen for a discount is 5%. If there are any "heavy discounts" I may have missed, feel free to enlighten me.

I don't really see the issue on your first "flaw":
-When I need to RMA something I don't contact my creditcard company but the merchant.
-Merchant regulation ( example:The law in Belgium states things bought online can be returned for free up to 14 days after delivery no   questions asked)
- Merchants offering the best return policies and the best trust ratings would be another tool to compete with the competition.

It's nothing a free market can't resolve on itself.

And cc fees are calculated into your purchasing price....

If you get ripped off, you contact your credit card company and have them reverse charges. Much more of a pain to get back your money with bitcoins, especially if they were straight-up fly by night scammers.

Relying on trust ratings seems like it would be a huge catch-22 that would lock new businesses out of markets in favor of established ones. How does one get high trust ratings if few have purchased from them? How does one justify purchasing from those new businesses so they can get those high trust ratings? You might see prices from the trusted sellers rise in the face of this, as they know people will pay the premium for the reassurance.

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).


I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?


The consumer won't even know they're using it. Gateways like Stripe, Apple Pay, Transferwise, Goldman Sachs, etc, etc will take care of that for them. The consumer will merely make payments like they always have - except at a fraction of the cost.

A fair point, but one that still relies on for-profit groups with self-serving interests.

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).


I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?

My opinion is that bitcoin's huge flaw in regards to regular consumer usage is that two of its major benefits both work in favor of the merchant.

Can't reverse transactions: benefits the merchant, makes it harder for them to get ripped off, but easier for the consumer to be ripped off, or to force them to accept what could be an inferior product with no guarantee of a refund.



You don't get a refund because of your payment method - you get a refund because of consumer protection law.
Companies that think they can get away with not giving refunds because people have paid with bitcoin will find that what happened to Butterflylabs happens to them.
Consumer protection law is what matters here - not your payment method. Most times you want to get a refund/take something back you talk directly to the retailer and they refund you directly or give you store credit. You only go to the credit card that one time in a hundred when that doesn't work.

Another fair point, but even with the law, it would still be a lot harder to get your bitcoins back. The point is why would the vast majority of consumers be willing to go through all the trouble? Yes, okay, there's the threat of arrest for those who scammed you, but even if they do go to jail, there is no guarantee you're getting your money back, and if you do it could take years vs the one phone call you need to make to the CC company. The ripoffs getting in trouble is not as important to your average consumer as them getting their money back without having to wait years wondering if it's ever coming.
NotLambchop
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October 24, 2014, 12:08:28 PM

HONEY BADGER DIDN'T CARE

DO YOU?
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October 24, 2014, 12:09:47 PM

I'm not sure why so many people are worried, you should be sold atm and waiting to catch the bottom of this drop.

How to catch the bottom in a bear market
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October 24, 2014, 12:12:01 PM

I'm not sure why so many people are worried, you should be sold atm and waiting to catch the bottom of this drop.

link removed

Why do I feel that the software your blog continually promotes will eventually rob everyone blind of their bitcoin?
cbeast
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October 24, 2014, 12:13:05 PM


Curvilinear charts with lines are so 2013.

Bitcoin Godzilla doesn't care.
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October 24, 2014, 12:17:37 PM

I'm not sure why so many people are worried, you should be sold atm and waiting to catch the bottom of this drop.

link removed

Why do I feel that the software your blog continually promotes will eventually rob everyone blind of their bitcoin?

I personally use the software and I think its great. I'm surprised more people to don't use software for their trades. But I understand your skepticism, but I have had a good experience and you can look around to see that there isn't a scam or theft report associated with the software.
lyth0s
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October 24, 2014, 12:19:53 PM

I'm not sure why so many people are worried, you should be sold atm and waiting to catch the bottom of this drop.

link removed

Why do I feel that the software your blog continually promotes will eventually rob everyone blind of their bitcoin?

I personally use the software and I think its great. I'm surprised more people to don't use software for their trades. But I understand your skepticism, but I have had a good experience and you can look around to see that there isn't a scam or theft report associated with the software.

Why do you run an entirely separate blog to promote your software? Usually scammers do this in an attempt to promote its legitimacy. Why not simply have these guides on your software website?

And of course the creator would think the software is great....
NotLambchop
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October 24, 2014, 12:36:06 PM

...
Bitcoin Godzilla doesn't care.

MrPiggles
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October 24, 2014, 12:39:28 PM


You don't get a refund because of your payment method - you get a refund because of consumer protection law.
Companies that think they can get away with not giving refunds because people have paid with bitcoin will find that what happened to Butterflylabs happens to them.
Consumer protection law is what matters here - not your payment method. Most times you want to get a refund/take something back you talk directly to the retailer and they refund you directly or give you store credit. You only go to the credit card that one time in a hundred when that doesn't work.

Simply not true, I lost money this week to a shitty merchant of a software license. I have no recourse. they have whois protection on their domain. I'm not gonna sue over $40.

I did my research, domain was 18 months old, no scam reports.

Welcome to bitcoin. It sucks for consumers
Gyrsur
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October 24, 2014, 12:41:16 PM
Last edit: October 24, 2014, 12:54:43 PM by Gyrsur


LOL

Asrael999
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October 24, 2014, 12:41:25 PM


You don't get a refund because of your payment method - you get a refund because of consumer protection law.
Companies that think they can get away with not giving refunds because people have paid with bitcoin will find that what happened to Butterflylabs happens to them.
Consumer protection law is what matters here - not your payment method. Most times you want to get a refund/take something back you talk directly to the retailer and they refund you directly or give you store credit. You only go to the credit card that one time in a hundred when that doesn't work.

Simply not true, I lost money this week to a shitty merchant of a software license. I have no recourse. they have whois protection on their domain. I'm not gonna sue over $40.

I did my research, domain was 18 months old, no scam reports.

Welcome to bitcoin. It sucks for consumers

so name and shame - and protect others from dealing with them in the future.
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October 24, 2014, 12:47:07 PM

How much money do you make shorting?

Can someone explain it to me?

Like say you have 1 coin.

You short at $390

What does it need to hit/how do you profit?

If it goes to $350 what would you make on that?


ELI5 please someone who knows more than I do


Short selling is easy.  forget the leveraging for 1 second,  You own $350.    you want to short sell 1. BTC

Assuming a price of $350 per BTC, you borrow 1BTC from a lender and sell it instantly when you open the short position, but with the promise you must buy back 1 BTC (and pay daily interest), when you close the position.   If the price has gone down, you buy back the 1BTC at a lower price give it back to the lender, and keep the profit.  If the price has gone up you you have to buy back that 1BTC at a loss and the difference comes out of your original $350.   If BTC has gone down $10 you make $10 and you have $360 (minus interest) if the price goes up by $10 you lose $10 and you have $340 (minus interest).  

If the price moves by more than you own.  Lets say, you have $350 and short 1 BTC when BTC is at $350.  and the price goes to $690, you will lose everything because your $350 has been marginalized, and you must close the position to pay your debts.  Because you have to buy back 1 BTC.  So the original $350 you own + the $350 you made when you short sold BTC at $350 = $700 + $10 interest means price of $690 BTC is wipe out for you because you need to buy back 1 BTC at $690 to give it back to the lender.  

Adding leverage means you borrow lets say x 3.  so if the price changes $10, you make $30 or lose $30 depending on which way the price had moved.  


The lender gets daily interest on the BTC he lends out.  The interest rate is volatile.  Although cheap at the moment, opening long term trades can be risky if you get stranded.

Someone taking out a short position here.  Is likely to have to cut losses because we are in a transition.  The bear market is over.  for example shorting at $350, in a month we will be above 400.  IMHO long term shorting season is well and truly over.

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October 24, 2014, 12:50:20 PM


You don't get a refund because of your payment method - you get a refund because of consumer protection law.
Companies that think they can get away with not giving refunds because people have paid with bitcoin will find that what happened to Butterflylabs happens to them.
Consumer protection law is what matters here - not your payment method. Most times you want to get a refund/take something back you talk directly to the retailer and they refund you directly or give you store credit. You only go to the credit card that one time in a hundred when that doesn't work.

Simply not true, I lost money this week to a shitty merchant of a software license. I have no recourse. they have whois protection on their domain. I'm not gonna sue over $40.

I did my research, domain was 18 months old, no scam reports.

Welcome to bitcoin. It sucks for consumers

so name and shame - and protect others from dealing with them in the future.

"Name and shame"?  Why are so many Bitcoiners eager to throw away the fruits of civilized society and take us back to the dark ages?
octaft
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October 24, 2014, 12:59:08 PM


You don't get a refund because of your payment method - you get a refund because of consumer protection law.
Companies that think they can get away with not giving refunds because people have paid with bitcoin will find that what happened to Butterflylabs happens to them.
Consumer protection law is what matters here - not your payment method. Most times you want to get a refund/take something back you talk directly to the retailer and they refund you directly or give you store credit. You only go to the credit card that one time in a hundred when that doesn't work.

Simply not true, I lost money this week to a shitty merchant of a software license. I have no recourse. they have whois protection on their domain. I'm not gonna sue over $40.

I did my research, domain was 18 months old, no scam reports.

Welcome to bitcoin. It sucks for consumers

so name and shame - and protect others from dealing with them in the future.

Doesn't help him get his money back, which is ultimately what the consumer cares about most.
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October 24, 2014, 01:00:46 PM


Explanation
cbeast
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October 24, 2014, 01:01:02 PM

How much money do you make shorting?

Can someone explain it to me?

Like say you have 1 coin.

You short at $390

What does it need to hit/how do you profit?

If it goes to $350 what would you make on that?


ELI5 please someone who knows more than I do

We all have morning snacks. I see the classroom bully coming. I convince you to borrow my snack until tomorrow when you pay me back. The bully takes all your snacks, but I show sympathy for your loss. Tomorrow I will have two snacks and a new bff.
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October 24, 2014, 01:04:31 PM

"Name and shame"?  Why are so many Bitcoiners eager to throw away the fruits of civilized society and take us back to the dark ages?
Very clever - you structured your post in a way that implies the people who want to out scammers to limit the damage they can do are "throwing away the fruits of civilized society" without actually lying.
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October 24, 2014, 01:07:46 PM

https://i.imgur.com/dDHCmUx.jpg
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October 24, 2014, 01:08:40 PM

"Name and shame"?  Why are so many Bitcoiners eager to throw away the fruits of civilized society and take us back to the dark ages?
Very clever - you structured your post in a way that implies the people who want to out scammers to limit the damage they can do are "throwing away the fruits of civilized society" without actually lying.


there are a lot of ways to limit the damage.

ask Ross Ulbricht.
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