Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LazyWhale]

Going to 400.

Not yet. It doesn't have much momentum.

[magicmexican]

A bus to 400 is leaving any time now.


(Probably)

[N12]

Bearwhale's intention might have been something other than to use it to make a giant ask wall? Maybe it was to dump 1k every time the price rose a little bit.

He buys it out himself to paint a high volume reversal on the charts and to simulate high demand <300, hoping new investors/exited investors will be tempted to come in based on that. If it works, bear markets over, if it doesn't, he puts a bunch of bids on the books with profits from previous sells (and from the actual buys of his 30k ask) to try to pump the price up as much as possible before selling off again and using those proceeds to try again at a lower price.

If you think that an ask that is up for 6h with a price differential to all other exchanges of 3-5% and the price continuously bumping against it during this whole timeframe and considering that the price had been in a relatively steep downtrend beforehand, ie lots of nervously waiting money on the sidelines, will not inevitably lead to many people buying into it, then obviously you've never traded this market in any significant capacity, because you do not appreciate the value of reduced slippage combined with a safe entry at least short term.

But keep doubting. It's fuel.

[spooderman]

Bearwhale's intention might have been something other than to use it to make a giant ask wall? Maybe it was to dump 1k every time the price rose a little bit.

He buys it out himself to paint a high volume reversal on the charts and to simulate high demand <300, hoping new investors/exited investors will be tempted to come in based on that. If it works, bear markets over, if it doesn't, he puts a bunch of bids on the books with profits from previous sells (and from the actual buys of his 30k ask) to try to pump the price up as much as possible before selling off again and using those proceeds to try again at a lower price.

If you think that an ask that is up for 6h with a price differential to all other exchanges of 3-5% and the price continuously bumping against it during this whole timeframe and considering that the price had been in a relatively steep downtrend beforehand, ie lots of nervously waiting money on the sidelines, will not inevitably lead to many people buying into it, then obviously you've never traded this market in any significant capacity, because you do not appreciate the value of reduced slippage combined with a safe entry at least short term.

But keep doubting. It's fuel.

It's not, I'm a hodlor, and occasional buyer. You are probably right, I'm not trying to troll but there are other possible motivations for the wall.

[tarmi]

much dumping on bitfinex.  

cmon bulls, we need more fuel for desperation.

[NotLambchop]

Good morning, gentlemen.  Rally?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Davyd05]

much dumping on bitfinex.  

cmon bulls, we need more fuel for desperation.

someone just closing their longs

[edwardspitz]

much dumping on bitfinex.  

That and a hidden ask wall at $348. Someone has zero faith in this going any further or just enjoy giving Finexers cheap coins. I picked up a few, and sold most of it again. Thank you fairy whale dumper.

[tarmi]

much dumping on bitfinex.  

cmon bulls, we need more fuel for desperation.

someone just closing their longs

it "just" happens that we have another 20 millions of longs.

[ibrahim11]

when is $1000 coming again?     

[Thomas-s]

when is $1000 coming again?     

Soon™

[octaft]

Bearwhale's intention might have been something other than to use it to make a giant ask wall? Maybe it was to dump 1k every time the price rose a little bit.

He buys it out himself to paint a high volume reversal on the charts and to simulate high demand <300, hoping new investors/exited investors will be tempted to come in based on that. If it works, bear markets over, if it doesn't, he puts a bunch of bids on the books with profits from previous sells (and from the actual buys of his 30k ask) to try to pump the price up as much as possible before selling off again and using those proceeds to try again at a lower price.

If you think that an ask that is up for 6h with a price differential to all other exchanges of 3-5% and the price continuously bumping against it during this whole timeframe and considering that the price had been in a relatively steep downtrend beforehand, ie lots of nervously waiting money on the sidelines, will not inevitably lead to many people buying into it, then obviously you've never traded this market in any significant capacity, because you do not appreciate the value of reduced slippage combined with a safe entry at least short term.

But keep doubting. It's fuel.

What makes more sense: some dude with 30k bitcoin decides to dump them all, and this insane buying pressure pops up in the middle of the night for a US exchange, or some dude with 30k bitcoin decides to make a move to raise the price so he can sell them all higher, then use that money to have ammo to buy back?

I think this guy is a stone-cold bull and wants the price to go up, and he's powerful enough to have an effect by himself, so he is probably hoping for the same thing you are: money is waiting nervously on the sidelines and he wants to signal it in.

It's a very low risk high reward play. At worst you lose some money of the probable millions you already made selling at 800+, on average you get a reasonably higher price for your 30k bitcoins (and have more ammo to fight again at 300, or 250, 200, whatever he decides is the right time), and at best you trigger a whole new wave of buying and get a WAY higher price for your 30k bitcoin, and at that point hold onto them and ride it up for a while.

[inca]

You could be right octaft.

Anyway pleasantly surprising to see us drift higher this weekend.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Possible triple top and we touched the downtrend trend line (since the august drop), either we break it and it becomes pretty bullish, or we get a late nasty week end dump.

[Erdogan]

Trading works. A trader can be successful, and what is needed, is to be able to anticipate the future. This is the basis of free market capitalism. If you are good at anticipating, you win, if you are bad, you lose. If you consistently lose, you are out out of the game and your capital is transferred to others, who are better. This is how all investing works, and what is to be anticipated, when all is said and done, is the demand for the different consumer goods. If you are good, you take part in forming the capital structure to produce the most consumer goods with the best balance between the different types of consumer goods.

What we the traders and holders do, is to increase the value of bitcoins, therefore we direct capital to the miners, who build the magnificent bitcoin mining network, and to the service companies. We anticipate that this is advantageous for traders of all goods and services, and therefore ultimately advantageous for the consumers.

The method we use to predict, is not important. Charting, fundamentals, logic or feelings, it does not matter any more than the reasons a gene has, when it chooses to mutate into a variant. It doesn't choose, in fact it does nothing consciously, because it has not the capability to think, but still a gene's code  can either adapt and prosper, or die.

Just as with the genes in the nature, you can never declare a final winner. You can declare a tentative winner, by sampling the world's gene pool and find the gene which is most numerous.

In investing, your status is always temporary. You may have a lot of value at a certain point, but the asset that you own, can depreciate. You can sell out, but then you have money, which can still depreciate. And your competitor might in the mean time find a winner asset that appreciate more than your's. That is why capitalists sometimes say, the one who has the most when he dies, wins. But death is also not definitive, because a fortune can outlive one individual, and living a prosperous life in your own psychical understanding of that concept, is also on the scale.

In bitcoin, it is difficult to predict, because it is a fundamentally new thing, and the liquidity on the market is not known. Liquidity here is the ease with which you can sell, or convert to other money or goods. The daytraders or other traders buy and sell, but in the long term they hold, on average, a number of coins which is not changing, and thus does not add real liquidity. You would think that you could easily sell 30K coins over a few weeks, when the daily trade volume is hundreds of thousands of coins. But apparently, that didn't work. The guy with 30K coins might think, when the price was 600, that his wealth was equal to 18 mill USD. But because of low liquidity, he could not convert at that price. Who could have known? Well now we know.

Daytraders could in theory take advantage of the resulting volatility, but they could not know what was in the head of the 30K seller, when and how much he would sell. It is not good enough to know afterwards, you have to know in advance, and I propose that nobody can know the daily variations.

Therefore a daytrader, as opposed to a long time, fundamentalist trader, can not know what he is doing, and his decisions are random, and produce random wins and losses. Now the big point: To be a daytrader, you have to sometimes have fiat, sometimes bitcoin, and sometimes a mix. So when there is a general uptrend, the daytrader is overall only half invested. A long time holder is fully invested. Therefore, a daytrader can not win as much as a holder. In a downtrend he will lose less, but in the long run, we will not have a downtrend. That is the holders prediction.

Some good points in this.

A lot of words, I should have slept instead. Pearls before swine.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

I'd prefer if a competent member of this community would put a bit more effort before forming convictions, on the other hand.

You're making unwarranted assumptions about my background.

True. There's the other option as well: you've spent enough time and intellectual resources on the topic, but you still arrive at a conclusion that, at least in the extremely reduced way you presented it here ("trading = gambling"), completely misses the mark.

Perhaps it's a matter of semantics, though.

Do you consider a competent poker player a "gambler"? If yes, I'm okay with calling the act of trading that as well: both are (risk controlled) finite resource bets on a stochastic process, based on the limited ability to predict future outcomes of that process.

If, on the other hand, a competent poker player is not a gambler, while a trader is, I would like to hear what makes predictions of the 'poker' process different from predictions of the 'market' process. Or, if both of them are gamblers, but neither of them has a chance to be EV+ in your view, then I'd like to see an explanation of why a competent poker player beats an incompetent time after time, (almost) independent of the cards that have been dealt. Been there myself, lost some money in the process :D

[octaft]

I'd prefer if a competent member of this community would put a bit more effort before forming convictions, on the other hand.

You're making unwarranted assumptions about my background.

True. There's the other option as well: you've spent enough time and intellectual resources on the topic, but you still arrive at a conclusion that, at least in the extremely reduced way you presented it here ("trading = gambling"), completely misses the mark.

Perhaps it's a matter of semantics, though.

Do you consider a competent poker player a "gambler"? If yes, I'm okay with calling the act of trading that as well: both are (risk controlled) finite resource bets on a stochastic process, based on the limited ability to predict future outcomes of that process.

If, on the other hand, a competent poker player is not a gambler, while a trader is, I would like to hear what makes predictions of the 'poker' process different from predictions of the 'market' process. Or, if both of them are gamblers, but neither of them has a chance to be EV+ in your view, then I'd like to see an explanation of why a competent poker player beats an incompetent time after time, (almost) independent of the cards that have been dealt. Been there myself, lost some money in the process

It's a game of skill with an element of chance, which means it's definitely gambling, but the best will get the money in the long-term. I think that could apply to either poker or trading.