Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Looks like i'll be getting margin called by the cent again for the 3rd fucking time...

Fucking disgusting

Dude

[simmo77]

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/australian-government-asks-pension-applicants-declare-digital-currency-assets-49918

Thanks for that, I missed that one. Us Aussies also now have to pay 10% GST when purchasing Bitcoins through local vendors (came into effect on Oct 1, 2014).

You sure? I thought that you should pay tax on the fees only?

I wish

https://blog.coinjar.com/2014/09/30/how-the-new-ato-guidance-affects-coinjar-users/

That is stupid.

Do you also pay 10% GST when you convert Aussie dollars to USD for your vacation to Hawaii?

not yet...

Shhhhh don't give them ideas. The Australian govt would tax air if it could.

[JimboToronto]

The Australian govt would tax air if it could.

Shhhhh don't give them ideas. 

[mymenace]

The Australian govt would tax air if it could.

Shhhhh don't give them ideas.  

too late carbon tax even though it has now been removed, it will come back

[simmo77]

The Australian govt would tax air if it could.

Shhhhh don't give them ideas.  

too late carbon tax even though it has now been removed, it will come back

Haha true I never thought of that...

[mymenace]

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/australian-government-asks-pension-applicants-declare-digital-currency-assets-49918

Thanks for that, I missed that one. Us Aussies also now have to pay 10% GST when purchasing Bitcoins through local vendors (came into effect on Oct 1, 2014).

You sure? I thought that you should pay tax on the fees only?

I wish

https://blog.coinjar.com/2014/09/30/how-the-new-ato-guidance-affects-coinjar-users/

That is stupid.

Do you also pay 10% GST when you convert Aussie dollars to USD for your vacation to Hawaii?

not yet...

Shhhhh don't give them ideas. The Australian govt would tax air if it could.

 i think coin jar got it wrong read the guidance from the ato

https://www.ato.gov.au/general/gen/tax-treatment-of-crypto-currencies-in-australia---specifically-bitcoin/

[podyx]

going up from here?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Malin Keshar]

End of the weekend dump

Back to normal from here

[simmo77]

http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/australian-government-asks-pension-applicants-declare-digital-currency-assets-49918

Thanks for that, I missed that one. Us Aussies also now have to pay 10% GST when purchasing Bitcoins through local vendors (came into effect on Oct 1, 2014).

You sure? I thought that you should pay tax on the fees only?

I wish

https://blog.coinjar.com/2014/09/30/how-the-new-ato-guidance-affects-coinjar-users/

That is stupid.

Do you also pay 10% GST when you convert Aussie dollars to USD for your vacation to Hawaii?

not yet...

Shhhhh don't give them ideas. The Australian govt would tax air if it could.

 i think coin jar got it wrong read the guidance from the ato

https://www.ato.gov.au/general/gen/tax-treatment-of-crypto-currencies-in-australia---specifically-bitcoin/

I agree, but it's basically irrelevant to me - I've done all (well, most of) my accumulating before the rule was introduced. Actually bought most of mine from Gox waaaay back before they needed your dox!

[byronbb]

I hope its still over 400 when i wake up tomorrow

i hope its 4K when you wake up 

So you hope he lapses into a coma? Not very nice

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Searing]

$400 usd baby...baby oh baby.....heh...knew you'd come back to me....hubba hubba

[noobtrader]

I hope its still over 400 when i wake up tomorrow

i hope its 4K when you wake up 

So you hope he lapses into a coma? Not very nice

says the man which its avatar says that everything is possible....   

[podyx]

Bullish penant forming??

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phillis]

Looks like we'll be going down

nope, we are going up, slowly but surely.

[Adrian-x]

Here's the [ formula ] I use:

Bmo = N x A

Bmo ~ total value bitcoin M0 (also called 'market cap')
N ~ total number of entities holding bitcoins
A ~ average Amount of value holding entities are willing to hold in btc

It appears likely that N is only going to keep increasing for the forseeable future (perhaps with exponential adoption rates at times).

A will stay around the same but also may increase as the confidence in holding value in btc becomes firmer.

You can let N to be any number of people, as long as it includes all people holding bitcoins in some time interval of interest and A is the average over that same set of people. 

So, let N be the number of all people who have held some bitcoin at any time since January.  Then N is fixed.

The Bmo of bitcoin has fallen 50% since January.  Therefore A must have fallen by that much, too.  So much for "A will stay around the same".

The formula is problematic also because it does not take into account the dynamics of BTC investing.  It seems that most of the extant bitcoins are held by "old" inactive investors, who are confident enough to hold them for a while longer, but were not confident enough to buy more coins over the last year.  (If the price keeps falling and they eventually decide to sell at 100 $/BTC, their old bitcoins would still have been a great investment, but any bitcoins acquired over the last year would have been a terrible one.)

So, the contribution to the A factor of those old investors does not depend on their confidence in bitcoin.  Rather, the amount of BTC that they are willing to hold is constant, and the amount of value that they are wlling to hold in BTC varies according to the market price of BTC, as determined by the Chinese traders.

In that case the value of A does not determine the market price, but is passively determined by it -- making the formula useless as a predictor of price.

VC's are doing their value added inputs (like the miners before them) once that market has a little more hierarchy, I can visualize it will be like the miners before them they'll realise it's cheaper to buy coins than build business to skim off the top.

[brg444]

Here's the [ formula ] I use:

Bmo = N x A

Bmo ~ total value bitcoin M0 (also called 'market cap')
N ~ total number of entities holding bitcoins
A ~ average Amount of value holding entities are willing to hold in btc

It appears likely that N is only going to keep increasing for the forseeable future (perhaps with exponential adoption rates at times).

A will stay around the same but also may increase as the confidence in holding value in btc becomes firmer.

You can let N to be any number of people, as long as it includes all people holding bitcoins in some time interval of interest and A is the average over that same set of people. 

So, let N be the number of all people who have held some bitcoin at any time since January.  Then N is fixed.

The Bmo of bitcoin has fallen 50% since January.  Therefore A must have fallen by that much, too.  So much for "A will stay around the same".

The formula is problematic also because it does not take into account the dynamics of BTC investing.  It seems that most of the extant bitcoins are held by "old" inactive investors, who are confident enough to hold them for a while longer, but were not confident enough to buy more coins over the last year.  (If the price keeps falling and they eventually decide to sell at 100 $/BTC, their old bitcoins would still have been a great investment, but any bitcoins acquired over the last year would have been a terrible one.)

So, the contribution to the A factor of those old investors does not depend on their confidence in bitcoin.  Rather, the amount of BTC that they are willing to hold is constant, and the amount of value that they are wlling to hold in BTC varies according to the market price of BTC, as determined by the Chinese traders.

In that case the value of A does not determine the market price, but is passively determined by it -- making the formula useless as a predictor of price.

VC's are doing their value added inputs (like the miners before them) once that market has a little more hierarchy, I can visualize it will be like the miners before them they'll realise it's cheaper to buy coins than build business to skim off the top.

Some smarter ones have realized it already. In fact, most diversify their porftfolio by buying the underlying asset. I believe Chamath Palihapitiya is solely buying Bitcoins and has expressed his opinion that this is the very best bet one could make at the moment.