Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phillis]

Looks like we'll be going down

nope, we are going up, slowly but surely.

[Adrian-x]

Here's the [ formula ] I use:

Bmo = N x A

Bmo ~ total value bitcoin M0 (also called 'market cap')
N ~ total number of entities holding bitcoins
A ~ average Amount of value holding entities are willing to hold in btc

It appears likely that N is only going to keep increasing for the forseeable future (perhaps with exponential adoption rates at times).

A will stay around the same but also may increase as the confidence in holding value in btc becomes firmer.

You can let N to be any number of people, as long as it includes all people holding bitcoins in some time interval of interest and A is the average over that same set of people. 

So, let N be the number of all people who have held some bitcoin at any time since January.  Then N is fixed.

The Bmo of bitcoin has fallen 50% since January.  Therefore A must have fallen by that much, too.  So much for "A will stay around the same".

The formula is problematic also because it does not take into account the dynamics of BTC investing.  It seems that most of the extant bitcoins are held by "old" inactive investors, who are confident enough to hold them for a while longer, but were not confident enough to buy more coins over the last year.  (If the price keeps falling and they eventually decide to sell at 100 $/BTC, their old bitcoins would still have been a great investment, but any bitcoins acquired over the last year would have been a terrible one.)

So, the contribution to the A factor of those old investors does not depend on their confidence in bitcoin.  Rather, the amount of BTC that they are willing to hold is constant, and the amount of value that they are wlling to hold in BTC varies according to the market price of BTC, as determined by the Chinese traders.

In that case the value of A does not determine the market price, but is passively determined by it -- making the formula useless as a predictor of price.

VC's are doing their value added inputs (like the miners before them) once that market has a little more hierarchy, I can visualize it will be like the miners before them they'll realise it's cheaper to buy coins than build business to skim off the top.

[brg444]

Here's the [ formula ] I use:

Bmo = N x A

Bmo ~ total value bitcoin M0 (also called 'market cap')
N ~ total number of entities holding bitcoins
A ~ average Amount of value holding entities are willing to hold in btc

It appears likely that N is only going to keep increasing for the forseeable future (perhaps with exponential adoption rates at times).

A will stay around the same but also may increase as the confidence in holding value in btc becomes firmer.

You can let N to be any number of people, as long as it includes all people holding bitcoins in some time interval of interest and A is the average over that same set of people. 

So, let N be the number of all people who have held some bitcoin at any time since January.  Then N is fixed.

The Bmo of bitcoin has fallen 50% since January.  Therefore A must have fallen by that much, too.  So much for "A will stay around the same".

The formula is problematic also because it does not take into account the dynamics of BTC investing.  It seems that most of the extant bitcoins are held by "old" inactive investors, who are confident enough to hold them for a while longer, but were not confident enough to buy more coins over the last year.  (If the price keeps falling and they eventually decide to sell at 100 $/BTC, their old bitcoins would still have been a great investment, but any bitcoins acquired over the last year would have been a terrible one.)

So, the contribution to the A factor of those old investors does not depend on their confidence in bitcoin.  Rather, the amount of BTC that they are willing to hold is constant, and the amount of value that they are wlling to hold in BTC varies according to the market price of BTC, as determined by the Chinese traders.

In that case the value of A does not determine the market price, but is passively determined by it -- making the formula useless as a predictor of price.

VC's are doing their value added inputs (like the miners before them) once that market has a little more hierarchy, I can visualize it will be like the miners before them they'll realise it's cheaper to buy coins than build business to skim off the top.

Some smarter ones have realized it already. In fact, most diversify their porftfolio by buying the underlying asset. I believe Chamath Palihapitiya is solely buying Bitcoins and has expressed his opinion that this is the very best bet one could make at the moment.

[podyx]

Bullish penant forming??

Breaking out soon

[Phillis]

yeah its looking good, nice and slow up

[karol]

Bullish penant forming??

Breaking out soon

On finex already, but on only on finex we will see finex sometimes goes opposit/wrong.

[AmazonStuff]

BTC shows good signs of recovery, we haven't seen this kind of performance since June 2014. I was afraid the large dump few days ago will break this uptrend, but it seems that it didn't. What I expect in the upcoming days is more volume which will put more steam to the current uptrend.

[BTCXE]

1 BTC = $401.71 USD
(17/11/2014 08:55 @ 1 BTC = $401.71 USD)
proudly calculated by www.btcxe.com

up & back down from 450 last week... Is it fair to assume we're not going to see that spike again this week ?

[podyx]

OKcoin down?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phillis]

OKcoin down?

i see plenty of action on OkCoin atm so it doesnt appear so

[fabrizio123]

Pump coming, fasten your sealtbelts please.

[podyx]

Pump coming, fasten your sealtbelts please.

I doubt it, I just bought

That means dip

[cech4204a]

There is too much silence atm, that could be right before explosin appears...

[marcotheminer]

Crash about to make the market plunge, I feel

[podyx]

Crash about to make the market plunge, I feel

What you mean?

[galdur]

Volume has dropped from the usual microscopic to now nano level.

[marcotheminer]

Crash about to make the market plunge, I feel

What you mean?

It's spiked over $40 in less than a day. This is a pump and dump for sure.

[hdbuck]

Crash about to make the market plunge, I feel

What you mean?

It's spiked over $40 in less than a day. This is a pump and dump for sure.

plus only couple large orders caused the surge..