[Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6 ordered (Closed)

[Datto]

OK lets gets these BTC back in our account and buy some bitfury right away as there shipping and burnin is doing a special, hurry hurry !

[SebastianJu]

Ok guys, we could refund batch 1-5. (Yifu changed the dates for refund so that our batch 5 slipped in barely) Since i think that nearly all buyers of complete batches will get refunds and yifu will get 400000 chips on wednesday i think all of our batches would be delivered fast. So it probably wouldnt be a disadvantage instead being in batch 1 to be in batch 6 or so. Though batch 6 cant be refunded anyway. On the other hand the first batches cant be kept only because a couple hundred chips want to be kept because who will pay the rest? So there has to be collecting of some kind.

We are at 6500 chips that want to be kept. 22000 undecided. 6000 chips from batch 6 we have to keep. Batches 1-5 could be refunded in theory. When i calculate the numbers i have higher then 12046 chips would be kept at the end. Of course the less active could decide differently from the active users.

What to do? Yifu gets his chips on wednesday. That means one, two days until we need to decide. It shouldnt be decided fast, that only raises chance of failures.

In theory i only could to it wrong. When i decide to refund batch 2-5 there will be trouble because chips are over. When i decide to refund 1-5 only 6000 remains and we are already at 6500.

Please tell me what to do. Its not an easy question i think.

Maybe i only should refund down from batch 5, 4 and so on. And only when i know enough chips are together to meet that number.

[CumpsD]

Maybe offer the extra chips to people who would like to keep their chips?

With some math behind it, each takes a hit, the ones who want to keep, and the ones who want a refund.

People who want a refund get X% instead of 100%, people who want more chips from the first batches get it at a discount of 100-(X/2) (as to not make people who want a refund feel they are paying for others getting more chips)

[-Redacted-]

I'm in batch 6, so it looks like no choice for me.  Just get them over to Burnin FAST...

[stripykitteh]

Maybe offer the extra chips to people who would like to keep their chips?

With some math behind it, each takes a hit, the ones who want to keep, and the ones who want a refund.

People who want a refund get X% instead of 100%, people who want more chips from the first batches get it at a discount of 100-(X/2) (as to not make people who want a refund feel they are paying for others getting more chips)

I've said before I'd take a 10% hit to cancel my order (batch #2). Not everyone will feel the same way I guess.

[Tursk]

Ok guys, we could refund batch 1-5. (Yifu changed the dates for refund so that our batch 5 slipped in barely) Since i think that nearly all buyers of complete batches will get refunds and yifu will get 400000 chips on wednesday i think all of our batches would be delivered fast. So it probably wouldnt be a disadvantage instead being in batch 1 to be in batch 6 or so. Though batch 6 cant be refunded anyway. On the other hand the first batches cant be kept only because a couple hundred chips want to be kept because who will pay the rest? So there has to be collecting of some kind.

We are at 6500 chips that want to be kept. 22000 undecided. 6000 chips from batch 6 we have to keep. Batches 1-5 could be refunded in theory. When i calculate the numbers i have higher then 12046 chips would be kept at the end. Of course the less active could decide differently from the active users.

What to do? Yifu gets his chips on wednesday. That means one, two days until we need to decide. It shouldnt be decided fast, that only raises chance of failures.

In theory i only could to it wrong. When i decide to refund batch 2-5 there will be trouble because chips are over. When i decide to refund 1-5 only 6000 remains and we are already at 6500.

Please tell me what to do. Its not an easy question i think.

Maybe i only should refund down from batch 5, 4 and so on. And only when i know enough chips are together to meet that number.

IMHO, set a deadline for binding answers from groupbuy members.

After all the answers you could use chips from those who did not answer as a buffer.
Those who did not answer are apparently not interested in refund, so use their chips
to get the proper amount to fill a 10k batch. Use first unanswered chip buyers from
batch #6 as it is not refundable. If more is needed from earlier batches...roll a dice 

[SebastianJu]

I have new numbers. A big buyer wants a refund, even though he only told me by phone yet.

6565 keep
32065 refund
17370 undecided

would be calculated higher mean 10121 chips should be kept at the end. Would be nearly ideal one batch when we wouldnt have to keep batch 6 too.

In any case i now ask for refund of 3 batches. All in those batches that didnt ask for refund yet are moved to other batches.

[itod]

I don't understand: If you only need one batch, why did you ask for refund for only 3 batches? Why not 4?

[CumpsD]

Because he is already certain 30k want a refund = 3 full batches

The rest is undecided yet on how to divide everything, and if people will need to take cuts in a refund, or if people wanting to keep can increase their share at a discount.

So, 3 is certainty, and choosing for certainty is not a bad move

[RoelVB]

I'm in batch 6, so it looks like no choice for me.  Just get them over to Burnin FAST...

No, not necessarily.
Buyers from batch 1-5 who want to keep the chips could get chips from batch 6.

[GandalfG]

I'm in batch 6, so it looks like no choice for me.  Just get them over to Burnin FAST...

No, not necessarily.
Buyers from batch 1-5 who want to keep the chips could get chips from batch 6.

All who are wait so long for deliver 1,2,3 batch now go to  end of the queue ?
Fantastic idea.

[Roy Badami]

Remember, batch 6 is different, because it was ordered from one of zefir's last batches rather than directly from Avalon.  And zefir ordered his batches with his own coins and then took orders from the community to pay for them.

So, bizarre as it seems, if I understand right, our batch 6 was actually ordered from Avalon before our batch 1.

ETA: And when Sebastian says we could refund batches 1-5, that's just because those are batches he's ordered.  I imagine that doesn't mean batch 6 can't/won't be refunded - just that he doesn't know because he's waiting on zefir to decide what he is doing with his batches.

Ok, so doing some more reading it appears I'm completelyi confused

Still, being in batch 6 doesn't necessarily mean you can't get a refund from Sebastian.  AIUI, Sebastian is moving people who want refunds to batches that are being refunded (and vice versa, is moving people who want chips to batches that are not refunded).  But he can't make everyone happy - time will tell how things work out.

roy

[tiros]

What are the chances for burnin bitburners to make ROI and how long it will take?
I want to see my boards but I am afraid I will pay for that feeling severely.

[SebastianJu]

What are the chances for burnin bitburners to make ROI and how long it will take?
I want to see my boards but I am afraid I will pay for that feeling severely.

Check for yourself: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

I asked for a refund for the three batches and wait for yifu now. Regarding the batches. We have to keep batch 6, no choice there. If someone is moved into that batch it cant be changed. But it shouldnt be a downside at all since i think most of the batches before will be refunded so the remaining batches will be shipped the faster. The only question is if the remaining 2 batches should be refunded too or not.

Good News... i received one Refund for a chip batch! Waiting for the others.

[voxelot]

The way these pre-order chips got funneled down is very hard to follow.  

I think that it is a good idea to have some of the 1-5 Batch refunds go through so that some of the open source devs who only care about studying how an ASIC works in practice rather than SIM theory can appreciate the chips.

Well thanks to SebastianJu I have had one of these ASICs this whole time.. however Klondike got really screwed over and he is sort of my teacher in all of this. So no PCB to play with but I'm more concerned for they way everyone got screwed.

[tiros]

What are the chances for burnin bitburners to make ROI and how long it will take?
I want to see my boards but I am afraid I will pay for that feeling severely.

Check for yourself: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

I asked for a refund for the three batches and wait for yifu now. Regarding the batches. We have to keep batch 6, no choice there. If someone is moved into that batch it cant be changed. But it shouldnt be a downside at all since i think most of the batches before will be refunded so the remaining batches will be shipped the faster. The only question is if the remaining 2 batches should be refunded too or not.

Good News... i received one Refund for a chip batch! Waiting for the others.

I checked today and it isn't looking good.

Edit: I wanted person to person opinion.

[SebastianJu]

It looks like Yifu is in the mood to communicate: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=269950.msg3053184#msg3053184
And following posts.

[SebastianJu]

What are the chances for burnin bitburners to make ROI and how long it will take?
I want to see my boards but I am afraid I will pay for that feeling severely.

Check for yourself: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

I asked for a refund for the three batches and wait for yifu now. Regarding the batches. We have to keep batch 6, no choice there. If someone is moved into that batch it cant be changed. But it shouldnt be a downside at all since i think most of the batches before will be refunded so the remaining batches will be shipped the faster. The only question is if the remaining 2 batches should be refunded too or not.

Good News... i received one Refund for a chip batch! Waiting for the others.

I checked today and it isn't looking good. I wanted person to person opinion.

I dont see a chance. I checked out everything. Alternate coins... there are none. I tried mining zetacoins but instead getting 160% of bitcoin revenue i got something like 60% or so.
The only thing worth is merged mining. I do it at bitparking.com. Gives 2%+. Ill use a own p2pool server soon with merge mining. Then i can get transaction fees too. They are missing at bitparking yet.

[chirale]

What are the chances for burnin bitburners to make ROI and how long it will take?
I want to see my boards but I am afraid I will pay for that feeling severely.

Check for yourself: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

I asked for a refund for the three batches and wait for yifu now. Regarding the batches. We have to keep batch 6, no choice there. If someone is moved into that batch it cant be changed. But it shouldnt be a downside at all since i think most of the batches before will be refunded so the remaining batches will be shipped the faster. The only question is if the remaining 2 batches should be refunded too or not.

Good News... i received one Refund for a chip batch! Waiting for the others.

Well done! Difficult decision and you are doing great!

[tiros]

What are the chances for burnin bitburners to make ROI and how long it will take?
I want to see my boards but I am afraid I will pay for that feeling severely.

Check for yourself: http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

I asked for a refund for the three batches and wait for yifu now. Regarding the batches. We have to keep batch 6, no choice there. If someone is moved into that batch it cant be changed. But it shouldnt be a downside at all since i think most of the batches before will be refunded so the remaining batches will be shipped the faster. The only question is if the remaining 2 batches should be refunded too or not.

Good News... i received one Refund for a chip batch! Waiting for the others.

I checked today and it isn't looking good. I wanted person to person opinion.

I dont see a chance. I checked out everything. Alternate coins... there are none. I tried mining zetacoins but instead getting 160% of bitcoin revenue i got something like 60% or so.
The only thing worth is merged mining. I do it at bitparking.com. Gives 2%+. Ill use a own p2pool server soon with merge mining. Then i can get transaction fees too. They are missing at bitparking yet.

Thanks for your reply Sebastian. So one bitburner 20 chips can earn per 24h, how much BTC?
thegenesis block seems to be calculating revenue for solo mining, not pool mining even they have pool percentage fee. (Time per
Block (days)) column.

How accurate is this?
http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/
What is reality?