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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 808627 times)
damiano
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October 27, 2013, 09:10:09 PM
 #3781

I don't think the report was that bad.  With all the competition we knew they would lose a lot of market share.

I still think out of any fund/stock to own AM is still the best. 
Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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October 27, 2013, 09:17:58 PM
 #3782

I don't think the report was that bad.  With all the competition we knew they would lose a lot of market share.

I still think out of any fund/stock to own AM is still the best. 

The lack of an status update is more an issue, I guess.

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October 27, 2013, 09:18:28 PM
 #3783

3 shares sold and the price is close to break 0.6.

Exchanges really don't reflect the real value of the company. Too little volume.
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October 27, 2013, 09:18:59 PM
 #3784

I made about 20 euro profit today by selling and then buying an AM1 share. Grin
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October 27, 2013, 11:34:57 PM
 #3785

In last week I bought 5 shares at BCA 0.72. Yesterday I won, today I lose. What a joke!
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October 28, 2013, 12:45:12 AM
 #3786

3 shares sold and the price is close to break 0.6.

Exchanges really don't reflect the real value of the company. Too little volume.
+1

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October 29, 2013, 06:18:50 PM
 #3787

DRUM ROLLS.....


Div speculation starts!!!! I am looking forward for a new all time low, yay ^_^

Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
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October 29, 2013, 07:27:07 PM
 #3788

I expect there will be some noteworthy news from AM this week. The video on the cooling technology as well as an update on all other endeavours should be a welcome sign to weary investors. A full div (without reinvestment diversion) will also bring out the streamers and birthday cake.


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October 29, 2013, 07:51:53 PM
 #3789

I expect there will be some noteworthy news from AM this week. The video on the cooling technology as well as an update on all other endeavours should be a welcome sign to weary investors. A full div (without reinvestment diversion) will also bring out the streamers and birthday cake.

You're going to be disappointed.

Full dividends off a 2% network share will be tiny.

Cooling technology is a worthless distraction. No-one other than miners need it and only then the really big boys so it's a tiny tiny market. Also unless there's any patents, it's a worthless product as it'll be copied in months if it can create any value.

AMs sole hope of future value is dependent on their ability to create new mining hardware that matches or beats the competition. The problem is that now there are lots of players in town.
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October 29, 2013, 10:11:32 PM
 #3790

I expect there will be some noteworthy news from AM this week. The video on the cooling technology as well as an update on all other endeavours should be a welcome sign to weary investors. A full div (without reinvestment diversion) will also bring out the streamers and birthday cake.




I'm gonna predict the video doesn't show up (on time). Gonna say it'll be around the end of Nov.   

Asicminer just hasn't been as reliable as they used to be. I still don't know where the supposed 500TH of new mining equipment was deployed. All in gen 1 usb sticks? Some in that datacenter from the blurry cellphone pics? I read all the news I can about asicminer and I still feel like I'm in the dark most of the time.

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October 29, 2013, 10:13:03 PM
 #3791

the fees need to pick up at at a good 10% year then people won't depend on newly minted coins for income. that's all.

ok
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October 30, 2013, 01:12:41 AM
 #3792

Keeping your cards close to your chest may be the best strategy at this point. FC has stated again and again and again that the gen2 stuff is on the way. We will all wake up one day in the near future to an announcement that gen2 is ready for delivery to distributors, and it really will be exponential.

FC has a strong history under-promising  and over-delivering. I expect we will be blown away when out of the blue 50 Gh/s usb miners and 2 Th/s blades hit the market or something ridiculous like that. Then people will be scrambling for shares, and the majority opinion will be "How could anyone not have expected this?"
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October 30, 2013, 01:26:05 AM
 #3793

Keeping your cards close to your chest may be the best strategy at this point. FC has stated again and again and again that the gen2 stuff is on the way. We will all wake up one day in the near future to an announcement that gen2 is ready for delivery to distributors, and it really will be exponential.

FC has a strong history under-promising  and over-delivering. I expect we will be blown away when out of the blue 50 Gh/s usb miners and 2 Th/s blades hit the market or something ridiculous like that. Then people will be scrambling for shares, and the majority opinion will be "How could anyone not have expected this?"

FC has an advantage over other ASIC manufacturers in that he can fund new generations of product out of existing earnings, so he doesn't need to publicize what he is doing. The others are all going down the pre-order route, which means they have to reveal a bit more about their plans.

The difference this time is that other companies will probably have similar product out by the time AM do. Cointerra have a 2TH device coming; HashFast a 1.2TH one. They have an advantage in that they have in-house chip design experts who have commercial experience working at 28nm process sizes. I think FC said a while ago he didn't expect to be able to find such people in China.

Apparently the new chip AM are working on is a 40nm process size. I'm not sure if that choice was governed by NRE cost, availability of a fab, or availability of expertise. Whatever edge AM carry in the long term, it doesn't sound like it will be due to having the best and brightest engineers or the best-performing product.

 
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October 30, 2013, 03:08:34 AM
 #3794

That may be true, but to paraphrase FC:

"AM production cost is invincible".

He may be able to assassinate his competition by providing similar hash at a fraction of the cost. This would not be the first time.

Imagine the chagrin of BFL if next week FC offered 600 Gh/s delivered the next day for $500.00. The gnashing of teeth from every other producer would be... loud.

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October 30, 2013, 03:40:21 AM
 #3795

Apparently the new chip AM are working on is a 40nm process size. I'm not sure if that choice was governed by NRE cost, availability of a fab, or availability of expertise. Whatever edge AM carry in the long term, it doesn't sound like it will be due to having the best and brightest engineers or the best-performing product.

I second Rival's statement. Those chips will probably be super cheap to produce. And what may needs to be repeated: compare BitFury's 55 nm chips to KnCMiner's 28 nm. When it comes down to efficiency, BF still wins, so I have high hopes in AM.

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October 30, 2013, 04:08:02 AM
 #3796

After this crazyness shakes out the only survivors will be cheap producers of gear.  If AM cost advantage is true then they are well positioned to keep selling for many years not just for now.

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October 30, 2013, 08:21:09 AM
 #3797

Apparently the new chip AM are working on is a 40nm process size. I'm not sure if that choice was governed by NRE cost, availability of a fab, or availability of expertise. Whatever edge AM carry in the long term, it doesn't sound like it will be due to having the best and brightest engineers or the best-performing product.

I second Rival's statement. Those chips will probably be super cheap to produce. And what may needs to be repeated: compare BitFury's 55 nm chips to KnCMiner's 28 nm. When it comes down to efficiency, BF still wins, so I have high hopes in AM.

And consider the NRE for 28nm vs 55nm or 40nm. Given the useful life of the equipment, there is no point in investing in the latest node process when the cost of electricity is offset by a huge margin by the savings on the NRE.

I'm sure FC has done the math.

I'm panic holding Grin

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October 30, 2013, 09:11:14 PM
 #3798

Keeping your cards close to your chest may be the best strategy at this point. FC has stated again and again and again that the gen2 stuff is on the way. We will all wake up one day in the near future to an announcement that gen2 is ready for delivery to distributors, and it really will be exponential.

Except gen 2 was stillborn at the lab. It's gen 3 that we place our hopes in.
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October 30, 2013, 10:35:42 PM
 #3799

Apparently the new chip AM are working on is a 40nm process size. I'm not sure if that choice was governed by NRE cost, availability of a fab, or availability of expertise. Whatever edge AM carry in the long term, it doesn't sound like it will be due to having the best and brightest engineers or the best-performing product.

I second Rival's statement. Those chips will probably be super cheap to produce. And what may needs to be repeated: compare BitFury's 55 nm chips to KnCMiner's 28 nm. When it comes down to efficiency, BF still wins, so I have high hopes in AM.

And consider the NRE for 28nm vs 55nm or 40nm. Given the useful life of the equipment, there is no point in investing in the latest node process when the cost of electricity is offset by a huge margin by the savings on the NRE.

I'm sure FC has done the math.

I'm panic holding Grin


I'm sure he has done the maths, but I wonder if 28 nm was excluded because he couldn't attract the talent? Why did 3 other startups choose 28 nm? Are they all wrong and FC is right?

 
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October 30, 2013, 11:25:48 PM
 #3800

I'm sure he has done the maths, but I wonder if 28 nm was excluded because he couldn't attract the talent? Why did 3 other startups choose 28 nm? Are they all wrong and FC is right?
Doesn't it have a much higher NRE?

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