ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[jimmothy]

For the third time: provide link or STFU.

perhaps i don't get the context,
but mentioned interview was done by a user from chinese subforum and found its way to AM-thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3404411#msg3404411

http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNjI1OTIxMTc2.html

One of our group members in Chinese community had an interview with Friedcat today. Above is the brief introduction of what Friedcat has done and planned to be accomplished in the next months.
To be short:
1. 1000T would be released around Nov 7th. These chips may be sold or deployed, depending on the situation then.
2. 2nd Gen chips have already been developed long time ago. But they were delayed to deploy considering the unsatisfactory performance.
3. 3rd Gen chips were also under development during that period. It is already developed now but still under test. It is expected to become a mature product in Feb 2014, which means its key indicators would be much better than those of its competitors. It is estimated that the network hashing power would be 1000p then, while Friedcat would deliver several hundred of it.

This was where I got the 28nm from. Not sure if it was an assumption or rumor that 28nm was gen3 but this is what started it I believe.

Regardless of the nm, assuming next gen asicminer chips specs are somewhat accurate, they will compete with anything on the market.

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[hlynur]

This was where I got the 28nm from. Not sure if it was an assumption or rumor that 28nm was gen3 but this is what started it I believe.

Regardless of the nm, assuming next gen asicminer chips specs are somewhat accurate, they will compete with anything on the market.

yea i somehow also stored 3rd gen under 28nm in my brain.
probably comes from all the speculation babble around any AM related news. at some point you're not sure what's rumor and what's official
at least we have a new update by friedcat that shareholders can dissect to the bone until next month.  

[prodigits7]

over 300BTC in the AM wallet now =)

Damiano please check your PMs. Thanks

[binaryFate]

probably comes from all the speculation babble around any AM related news. at some point you're not sure what's rumor and what's official

This was always true, but recently it was like a firework of made-up but confident BS.

[hlynur]

probably comes from all the speculation babble around any AM related news. at some point you're not sure what's rumor and what's official

This was always true, but recently it was like a firework of made-up but confident BS.

seems to result from the overall sentiment with bitcoin reaching bubble territory again.
feels sometimes like a stirred up anthill in this forum. (at least on some threads)

[empoweoqwj]

As far as I know, thought I can't read Chinese so may have missed something  , FC has never mentioned 28nm

Do I care? No. The stats he provided yesterday are what I care about:

"Power consumption is <0.2W per G and <0.2$ per G wafer cost."

nm is for show, cost per G is for dough

[antirack]

Something to ponder.

Looking at some of the individual systems, the new champion of the Green500 is an interesting and admittedly small scale system out of Japan called TSUBAME-KFC. At 27.78 kW in power consumption and 150 TFLOPS, TSUBAME-KFC isn’t very powerful, but at 4,503 MFLOPS/W it’s by far the most efficient system on the list. The secret – and to our knowledge this is the only ranked supercomputer like this – is that TSUBAME-KFC is the only oil immersion supercomputer on the list. As we’ve seen in the past with systems such as Eurora, supercomputer builders are playing with increasingly exotic forms of cooling in order to keep power consumption down and to further increase efficiency, as the largest scale installations are bounded more by power/cooling needs than they are equipment costs.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7539/fall-2013-supercomputer-rankings-released-achiving-max-efficiency-with-oil

What AM is using is way better than oil. Oil is extremely messy and still needs heat sinks etc.

With passive two-phase immersion cooling finally happening I don't think oil cooling has a very long lifespan. There are probably companies that have already invested in it and it will take them a few years to get rid of it, but it won't stay much longer than that IMHO. Only advantage I see now is that you can get mineral oil openly, but fluids for passive (at this moment) only from 3M.

How is 2-phase immersion cooling different from oil cooling?

2-phase immersion cooling does a much better job at cooling electronics, at much lower cost with less resources. Because of the physical limitations of oil and cooling, high density as in 2-phase immersion would simply not be possible.

Oil cooling is a single phase process. Oil cooling systems are not passive, it requires hydraulic pumps to take hot oil away from hot spots because oil is a fluid with high viscosity. Passive 2-phase immersion cooling uses fluids with a very low viscosity just like water. This means the liquid circulates passively, taking the heat away efficiently without any pumps. Oil needs filtration and treatment and has a limited lifespan when used for electronics cooling.

The engineered fluids in a passive immersion system are inert, have a shelf life of 30 years and show no degradation after long term use for cooling. While the fluid is not particularly hot (ie. 34°C or 49°C when it boils), the constant boiling and condensation is a distillation process on its own. It's also very clean (not oily or greasy), has zero ozone depletion, very low global warming potential, and it is the best fire protection one can imagine (Novec 1230 is state-of-the-art data center fire protection).

Using large amounts of oil in a data center brings non-technical implications since oil is classified as dangerous and flammable. Government regulations, fire safety standards and insurance risks all require careful considerations.

Oil cooling can reduce electricity bills and the burden on the environment. However, in an oil cooling application fans and air filters are replaced with hydraulic pumps and oil filters, while passive 2-phase immersion cooling simply eliminates these resource hogs altogether.

Technically and physically, passive 2-phase immersion cooling is way ahead, and practically we believe the same is also true.

http://www.allied-control.com/immersion-cooling/frequently-asked-questions-faqs

[steamon]

Gen 3 is coming and stuff never lost trust in the stock. I wanted to buy more stocks under 0.20 but it hanged at 0.23. But back to speculation. You guys think it will reach 3.0 btc again next year with high devidends? I don't got a lot off stocks But I went in with 2.5 btc for long term dividends. So In a few years I can maybe gather all the btc again.

Why I didn't stepped in earlyer? Didn't know bitcoin stocks existed lol.

[jimmothy]

Gen 3 is coming and stuff never lost trust in the stock. I wanted to buy more stocks under 0.20 but it hanged at 0.23. But back to speculation. You guys think it will reach 3.0 btc again next year with high devidends? I don't got a lot off stocks But I went in with 2.5 btc for long term dividends. So In a few years I can maybe gather all the btc again.

Why I didn't stepped in earlyer? Didn't know bitcoin stocks existed lol.

I think anything above 1btc per share is going to be a huge over evaluation. With difficulty so high maintaining hashrate becomes harder and I doubt we will ever see upwards of 20% control. I would think 10% is more achievable and with 10% I value the shares at 1btc per.

[jimmothy]

If at least one company starts to sell immediately shipping equipment, AM will have to be much more competitive and I would then doubt it could achieve that high dividends and share price again.

If they do with Gen3 what they did with Gen1 and Block Erupters, that is cute easy to use miners with accessible single unit price, it could work out very well.

I don't think we will be seeing another "gold rush".

[FWGR]

Well given the current huge wave of noobs who ABSOLUTELY want to mine (at least that's what I see in the French subforum), I still think we could have another year.

I had a "thuggish" friend of a friend come over the other day going on about "this bitcoin thing" and how he and his brother were going to start "mining money."  I'd have felt bad if I didn't give him the obligatory explanation about difficulty increases and ROI but he wasn't hearing it. 

There definitely may be a chance, though I wouldn't base my strategy upon that hope.

[explorer]

Gen 3 is coming and stuff never lost trust in the stock. I wanted to buy more stocks under 0.20 but it hanged at 0.23. But back to speculation. You guys think it will reach 3.0 btc again next year with high devidends? I don't got a lot off stocks But I went in with 2.5 btc for long term dividends. So In a few years I can maybe gather all the btc again.

Why I didn't stepped in earlyer? Didn't know bitcoin stocks existed lol.

I think anything above 1btc per share is going to be a huge over evaluation. With difficulty so high maintaining hashrate becomes harder and I doubt we will ever see upwards of 20% control. I would think 10% is more achievable and with 10% I value the shares at 1btc per.

FC did relay a while back that he was still happy with the business model, and on track. I took that to mean he intended to maintain (regain?) the 10% network share.  20 was amazing, but I'm not as fond of this 1% era    We have no real way of ascertaining the scope of the franchise sector though. Do we?  The 0.0013 div seems to indicate that it is tiny, unless funds are still being withheld for operations.  a reasonably stable 10% average would kick ass after plumbing the depths.

[KS]

Gen 3 is coming and stuff never lost trust in the stock. I wanted to buy more stocks under 0.20 but it hanged at 0.23. But back to speculation. You guys think it will reach 3.0 btc again next year with high devidends? I don't got a lot off stocks But I went in with 2.5 btc for long term dividends. So In a few years I can maybe gather all the btc again.

Why I didn't stepped in earlyer? Didn't know bitcoin stocks existed lol.

I think anything above 1btc per share is going to be a huge over evaluation. With difficulty so high maintaining hashrate becomes harder and I doubt we will ever see upwards of 20% control. I would think 10% is more achievable and with 10% I value the shares at 1btc per.

FC did relay a while back that he was still happy with the business model, and on track. I took that to mean he intended to maintain (regain?) the 10% network share.  20 was amazing, but I'm not as fond of this 1% era    We have no real way of ascertaining the scope of the franchise sector though. Do we?  The 0.0013 div seems to indicate that it is tiny, unless funds are still being withheld for operations.  a reasonably stable 10% average would kick ass after plumbing the depths.

Looks like all the mining revenue went in the divs. This is a transition period, so the divs will probably flirt with zero for a while unless enough mining gear is sold, but given it's Gen1 equipment until Q1 or Q2 2014, it won't look too hot (unless you, literally, need to keep warm during the winter) and not bring much revenue. What FC will do from those revenues and the divs, FC knows.

[jimmothy]

Gen 3 is coming and stuff never lost trust in the stock. I wanted to buy more stocks under 0.20 but it hanged at 0.23. But back to speculation. You guys think it will reach 3.0 btc again next year with high devidends? I don't got a lot off stocks But I went in with 2.5 btc for long term dividends. So In a few years I can maybe gather all the btc again.

Why I didn't stepped in earlyer? Didn't know bitcoin stocks existed lol.

I think anything above 1btc per share is going to be a huge over evaluation. With difficulty so high maintaining hashrate becomes harder and I doubt we will ever see upwards of 20% control. I would think 10% is more achievable and with 10% I value the shares at 1btc per.

FC did relay a while back that he was still happy with the business model, and on track. I took that to mean he intended to maintain (regain?) the 10% network share.  20 was amazing, but I'm not as fond of this 1% era    We have no real way of ascertaining the scope of the franchise sector though. Do we?  The 0.0013 div seems to indicate that it is tiny, unless funds are still being withheld for operations.  a reasonably stable 10% average would kick ass after plumbing the depths.

Looks like all the mining revenue went in the divs. This is a transition period, so the divs will probably flirt with zero for a while unless enough mining gear is sold, but given it's Gen1 equipment until Q1 or Q2 2014, it won't look too hot (unless you, literally, need to keep warm during the winter) and not bring much revenue. What FC will do from those revenues and the divs, FC knows.

Not at all true. Last div was unexpectedly low due to luck. It looks like this div will be nearly double last weeks at the current rate. Fc said that 1/3rd of cubes are already sold I have no doubt the rest will sell considering the cube competes with every asic available at this time.

The number of cubes left for sale/deployment is 9000

I wonder if this means that a portion of the 9000 cubes will be deployed for AM solomine.

[empoweoqwj]

Gen 3 is coming and stuff never lost trust in the stock. I wanted to buy more stocks under 0.20 but it hanged at 0.23. But back to speculation. You guys think it will reach 3.0 btc again next year with high devidends? I don't got a lot off stocks But I went in with 2.5 btc for long term dividends. So In a few years I can maybe gather all the btc again.

Why I didn't stepped in earlyer? Didn't know bitcoin stocks existed lol.

I think anything above 1btc per share is going to be a huge over evaluation. With difficulty so high maintaining hashrate becomes harder and I doubt we will ever see upwards of 20% control. I would think 10% is more achievable and with 10% I value the shares at 1btc per.

FC did relay a while back that he was still happy with the business model, and on track. I took that to mean he intended to maintain (regain?) the 10% network share.  20 was amazing, but I'm not as fond of this 1% era    We have no real way of ascertaining the scope of the franchise sector though. Do we?  The 0.0013 div seems to indicate that it is tiny, unless funds are still being withheld for operations.  a reasonably stable 10% average would kick ass after plumbing the depths.

Looks like all the mining revenue went in the divs. This is a transition period, so the divs will probably flirt with zero for a while unless enough mining gear is sold, but given it's Gen1 equipment until Q1 or Q2 2014, it won't look too hot (unless you, literally, need to keep warm during the winter) and not bring much revenue. What FC will do from those revenues and the divs, FC knows.

It won't look too hot unless you are using the time to save up bitcoins in order to buy up AM shares for next to nothing when the dividends disappear for a month or three before Gen3. Bring it on

[freedomno1]

Well not sure how directly this is speculating
But to the MOON 
http://money.cnn.com/2013/11/22/news/companies/bitcoin-virgin-space/

[antirack]

Virtual currency, space flight tourism, industrial mining, passive two-phase immersion cooling, all things considered very futuristic not long ago.

Proud to be part of it!

[velacreations]

looks like SebastianJu's auction is going better than a lot of people expected.  Only ~300 shares left!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345248

[Pinwheel]

finally it may come to cost of devices and with made in China miners will be hard to compete.

[tinus42]

looks like SebastianJu's auction is going better than a lot of people expected.  Only ~300 shares left!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345248

176 shares left as of now.