ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[lophie]

Isn´t havelock holding ASICMINER shares?

Depends what you mean by "holding"? They allow people to buy and sell via Pass-Through shares if that is what you mean.

yes, they are directly holding, and they require to be holding any new security to list as pass-through as per their terms

Serious question (not trolling)
what would possess someone to lock up their volatile bitcoins in a pretty illiquid security which returns currently 0.69% yearly yield, also with a declining share-price?
even a stable asset, 0.69% is even worth getting out of bed for?, maybe only for 10k+ btc?

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

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[empoweoqwj]

what prevents asicminer from building private farm elsewhere and forget about this thread here?  gen3 could very much be a fail too like gen2, IYKWIM

Nothing. Except their dividends paid to date. Cheats tend to cheat from day one. We've seen nothing of that from AM. They have earned trust. How many bitcoin companies can you say that of?

after the pump to 5btc/share I dont see AM being anywhere near trustable. they earned trust and >100.000 BTC
whats the incentive here to keep sending pay outs after gen1 is no longer profitable?

gen1 stopped being profitable 6-8 months ago. gen3 is happening this month. The chips are real. They are being tested by outside parties as we speak. If you don't want any part of it, fine. But they will pay out as soon as they start shipping the chips. I have no doubt about that. Like I say, if you think they have suddenly turned "Mr Hyde" on us, don't buy their shares. Nobody is forcing you too.

[empoweoqwj]

Isn´t havelock holding ASICMINER shares?

Depends what you mean by "holding"? They allow people to buy and sell via Pass-Through shares if that is what you mean.

yes, they are directly holding, and they require to be holding any new security to list as pass-through as per their terms

Serious question (not trolling)
what would possess someone to lock up their volatile bitcoins in a pretty illiquid security which returns currently 0.69% yearly yield, also with a declining share-price?
even a stable asset, 0.69% is even worth getting out of bed for?, maybe only for 10k+ btc?

please read up on AM. 0.69% is based on gen1. Gen3 is launching in next 30 days. Of course 0.69% isn't worth getting out of bed for. The gen3 specs certainly are.

[rudrigorc2]

I have no doubt about that.

Im selling 50 direct shares, btw.

[Anotheranonlol]

Isn´t havelock holding ASICMINER shares?

Depends what you mean by "holding"? They allow people to buy and sell via Pass-Through shares if that is what you mean.

yes, they are directly holding, and they require to be holding any new security to list as pass-through as per their terms

Serious question (not trolling)
what would possess someone to lock up their volatile bitcoins in a pretty illiquid security which returns currently 0.69% yearly yield, also with a declining share-price?
even a stable asset, 0.69% is even worth getting out of bed for?, maybe only for 10k+ btc?

please read up on AM. 0.69% is based on gen1. Gen3 is launching in next 30 days. Of course 0.69% isn't worth getting out of bed for. The gen3 specs certainly are.

how much of an increase can there be? if current yield with old gen1 is 0.69%
are you expecting 2x, 4x,8x even 20x increase in divs generated from gen3 over what is generated today?
at 20x increase from today you'd be looking at ~13% return, which again doesn't seem really inviting when we are dealing with bitcoins, but I guess you can live with it if the asset is stable.

but you wouldn't get 20x increase in div proportinally, because you are also banking on share price increasing, which it always tends to do on good news regardless: so at 1btc per share that's no longer 13% and what is 6% in bitcoin, so what are new investors investing for? are they just banking on continuous new developments; and therefore share price increases?

again, not trolling.. just really can't understand it.. but to be honest couldnt understand how asicminer was even selling out of block erupters and fetching few btc per share

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

marked them

[lophie]

Isn´t havelock holding ASICMINER shares?

Depends what you mean by "holding"? They allow people to buy and sell via Pass-Through shares if that is what you mean.

yes, they are directly holding, and they require to be holding any new security to list as pass-through as per their terms

Serious question (not trolling)
what would possess someone to lock up their volatile bitcoins in a pretty illiquid security which returns currently 0.69% yearly yield, also with a declining share-price?
even a stable asset, 0.69% is even worth getting out of bed for?, maybe only for 10k+ btc?

please read up on AM. 0.69% is based on gen1. Gen3 is launching in next 30 days. Of course 0.69% isn't worth getting out of bed for. The gen3 specs certainly are.

how much of an increase can there be? if current yield with old gen1 is 0.69%
are you expecting 2x, 4x,8x even 20x increase in divs generated from gen3 over what is generated today?
at 20x increase from today you'd be looking at ~13% return, which again doesn't seem really inviting when we are dealing with bitcoins, but I guess you can live with it if the asset is stable.

but you wouldn't get 20x increase in div proportinally, because you are also banking on share price increasing, which it always tends to do on good news regardless: so at 1btc per share that's no longer 13% and what is 6% in bitcoin, so what are new investors investing for? are they just banking on continuous new developments; and therefore share price increases?

again, not trolling.. just really can't understand it.. but to be honest couldnt understand how asicminer was even selling out of block erupters and fetching few btc per share

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

marked them

You look at how big the needed increase of dividents amount in order for the price to jump that much as I predict. You see this works fine if ASICMINER was just in another iteration of adding more hashing power to the farm or to the market. this is not just "another iteration", ASICMINER already have the 1P covered financially.

 Anyway time will prove either of us wrong. People just read both our rationale and make your own mind. I hope he prosper, but since he is an ASICMINER bear, I just hope he wouldnt miss alot of the profits he might have made... you know... the ones I WILL make.

[Swordsoffreedom]

what prevents asicminer from building private farm elsewhere and forget about this thread here?  gen3 could very much be a fail too like gen2, IYKWIM

Nothing. Except their dividends paid to date. Cheats tend to cheat from day one. We've seen nothing of that from AM. They have earned trust. How many bitcoin companies can you say that of?

after the pump to 5btc/share I dont see AM being anywhere near trustable. they earned trust and >100.000 BTC
whats the incentive here to keep sending pay outs after gen1 is no longer profitable?

Can't blame the company for what the speculators do to the shares anyways we can only wait and see
Friedcat has been paying dividends consistently for a while and although fairly quiet does do stuff in the background
So not much longer of a wait now

[Bonam]

Estimates over in the other thread suggest 100 PH to be sold over next 3 months, profit of on average $0.5 / GH. That's $50 million USD, or 125 USD / share, so 0.25 BTC/share.

If that's paid out once per week over 3 months (12 weeks), then that's 0.021 BTC/share/week dividend, on average. That's around what they were paying when share price was at it's highest, and a factor of about 300 higher than the last paid dividend.

Of course, that makes several key assumptions:

1) That they really deliver 100 pH in the next 3 months
2) That profit really is as high per GH as assumed in the other thread
3) That all the profit is paid out as dividends rather than kept for re-investment into further projects

Reality will likely fall somewhat short.

[MilkyLep]

Estimates over in the other thread suggest 100 PH to be sold over next 3 months, profit of on average $0.5 / GH. That's $50 million USD, or 125 USD / share, so 0.25 BTC/share.

If that's paid out once per week over 3 months (12 weeks), then that's 0.021 BTC/share/week dividend, on average. That's around what they were paying when share price was at it's highest, and a factor of about 300 higher than the last paid dividend.

Of course, that makes several key assumptions:

1) That they really deliver 100 pH in the next 3 months
2) That profit really is as high per GH as assumed in the other thread
3) That all the profit is paid out as dividends rather than kept for re-investment into further projects

Reality will likely fall somewhat short.

Well you certainly have quite the narrow point of view.

[Mabsark]

Estimates over in the other thread suggest 100 PH to be sold over next 3 months, profit of on average $0.5 / GH. That's $50 million USD, or 125 USD / share, so 0.25 BTC/share.

If that's paid out once per week over 3 months (12 weeks), then that's 0.021 BTC/share/week dividend, on average. That's around what they were paying when share price was at it's highest, and a factor of about 300 higher than the last paid dividend.

Of course, that makes several key assumptions:

1) That they really deliver 100 pH in the next 3 months
2) That profit really is as high per GH as assumed in the other thread
3) That all the profit is paid out as dividends rather than kept for re-investment into further projects

Reality will likely fall somewhat short.

Those 3 months include this month so it's basically the next 10 weeks. As for the profit, Friedcat stated that the cost per Gh was less than $0.2 on the wafer and that the cost to purchase chips would be $0.49 - $0.99 per Gh depending on the size of the order.

Does anyone know how much the packing per chip would cost?

Also, Jutarul said:

The dividend schedule will be aggressive, as AM will not require large sums of retained capital. The rationale is that AM doesn't need to invest large sums into infrastructure and that the majority of chip production costs will be covered by the business partners on a contract schedule.

[blo8i]

did they stop paying divs? on hacelock it says the last div was payed 2014-03-30? that gave me 0.00013 for two shares.

[maxl]

The last few weeks were no dividends. Because of the too small amounts from mining income.

Next diva will be when first gen3 chips are sold. Which happens hopefully next week.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Hopefully next week since Friedcat posted chips are arriving and he should be able to sell them pretty quickly afterwards.

[_mr_e]

Cannot understand why people are selling at such a price with chips right around the corner...

[Evolyn]

Cannot understand why people are selling at such a price with chips right around the corner...

Me neither. But instead complaining, I'm happy I was able to grab a few more cheap shares untill the dividend payouts continue. It's already time to prepare (order popcorn) for the panic buys soon.

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

Can't be sum up better, same plan here

[Swordsoffreedom]

Cannot understand why people are selling at such a price with chips right around the corner...

People who don't read the thread or I assume that even a few weeks is too long to wait for some  lol

[minerpumpkin]

Cannot understand why people are selling at such a price with chips right around the corner...

Me neither. But instead complaining, I'm happy I was able to grab a few more cheap shares untill the dividend payouts continue. It's already time to prepare (order popcorn) for the panic buys soon.

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

Can't be sum up better, same plan here

I've got a feeling that a lot of people follow that exact plan. I don't know whether it's wise or not, but this might very well end up pretty badly.

[eastpk]

Cannot understand why people are selling at such a price with chips right around the corner...

Me neither. But instead complaining, I'm happy I was able to grab a few more cheap shares untill the dividend payouts continue. It's already time to prepare (order popcorn) for the panic buys soon.

Personally, I am in to sell at peak prices when gen3 divs kick in hard. With current aweful aweful numbers at full deployment/selling of all chips, I will sell my shares for the minimum of 1 BTC each, That is doubling my capital in less than 3 months.

Mark my words.

- Lophie

Can't be sum up better, same plan here

I've got a feeling that a lot of people follow that exact plan. I don't know whether it's wise or not, but this might very well end up pretty badly.

So do you think the price will never get past 1?

[freedomno1]

Well considering how we have been waiting for a while now guess two weeks in the speculation thread and a lot longer in the main AM thread that said leaves this in the speculation thread which will probably start up again sooner than later
Waiting on that div

I made a graph of asicminer stock in USD prices. I'm mystified at the affect USD/BTC price has on asicminer stock. Certainly cheap shares at the moment.
Charts based on historical data from btct, havelock and bitcoinwisdom. Time not to scale, data is approximate. Related chart and raw data @ http://imgur.com/a/EW74v#0

Link to your data in a shared google doc, and post a bitcoin address... for tips!

I would really like to encourage more stuff like this, lots of data about AM is available if you dig it up, and make human sense of it.  I think it really ads value for new investors and old alike to see things like this and put stuff in perspective.

[jimmothy]

Any div predictions? I'm guessing ~0.015 btc/share