ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[SOSLOVE868]

well, I'm freaking out that I didn't sell at 2.9, like some other people around here. 

That ask line is dropping, little by little, we are going to be in the 2.7s in a few hours if something doesn't change.

As a investor , you could not expect you will perfectly predicting the market. do not freaking as long as you are profitable, and if you think you are worry about the price then just selling some part of your AM and collect the profit.This would be a most prudent way. Be happy unless you are investing in few of the profitable asset over the market, did you see there are lot of people are suffered because they can't sell their asset at whatever price..

[1714674250]

1714674250

[1714674250]

1714674250

[Exocyst]

Tomorrow's dividends might have interesting price effects. Rumors have been swirling as of late:

• Are ASICMINER hardware sales in decline?
• Is ASICMINER underperforming in block mining? With rumors suggesting:
  • Unstable electricity in hot southern China
  • Large sell-off of ASICMINER hardware to new Chinese investment entries into the Bitcoin mining
  • Technical malfunctions at the datacenter

It's probably a good time to have your shares on an exchange (passthrough).

[freedomno1]

I've got no horse in this race, but I believe BTC's max is currently 7 T/S

Follow-up question -- why is there a 7 transaction/s limit?

There's a somewhat incorrect advertising campaign going on
Causing a lot of people to be confused
Technicals are being handled
They are artificial


The core Bitcoin network can scale to much higher transaction rates than are seen today, assuming that nodes in the network are primarily running on high end servers rather than desktops. Bitcoin was designed to support lightweight clients that only process small parts of the block chain (see simplified payment verification below for more details on this). A configuration in which the vast majority of users sync lightweight clients to more powerful backbone nodes is capable of scaling to millions of users and tens of thousands of transactions per second.

Today the Bitcoin network is restricted to a sustained rate of 7 tps by some artificial limits. These were put in place to stop people from ballooning the size of the block chain before the network and community was ready for it. Once those limits are lifted, the maximum transaction rate will go up significantly.

Ultimate Blockchain is the solution to this bloat issue
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88208.0

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability

[freedomno1]

Well we know the blades are completely out of stock
Add the last part of those to dividends for this week plus mining

Expect a lower dividend range for a few weeks end of June early July
Then see some better units back in there and demand rise with the higher dividends
Watch how people determine yield value into stock price over the current week or two

(Little bit of panic here and there from the lowly informed investors omg the Yields only 0.25 RUN!)
And then cruise back upward again when it goes back to 0.3 + lol

That said I think 2.5 Is a Key Support we probably will not fall below that any time soon
(Except during currency collapses or parabolic bubbles of course   )
Which with bitcoin can happen guess I would say pile up if your even slightly long term here
Beyond next week or two he-he

Assume avalon's Klondike and AMC will ship at higher capacity and complete project August/September for mid term possibly earlier but still to early to call on Klondikes (Inital Release 1.0)
Assume BFL will give more chip rebates that cannot be claimed until Christmas lol (January so they can do holiday specials XD)
(And heck at this rate will beat anything currently on the market or theoretically should be on the market from BFL &_&)
I'll believe it when it really starts moving watches lol

OMG OMG SELL SELL XD
Nom nom nom

That said main AM thread is making excellent discussion
Heating issues, location, new blades, electricity, mysterious chinese buyers lots of good points and of course all speculation that belongs here whistles guys come here XD

[murfshake]

(Little bit of panic here and there from the lowly informed investors omg the Yields only 0.25 RUN!)
And then cruise back upward again when it goes back to 0.3 + lol

Do you mean .025 and .03?  If so, big difference.

[Lorren]

TAT shares were slightly above .025 a week ago... for them to go as high as .029 seems like they were a little overpriced for the time.  While I haven't sold any, I'll probably hold off buying more until after the divs because they seem a little much right now.

[freedomno1]

(Little bit of panic here and there from the lowly informed investors omg the Yields only 0.25 RUN!)
And then cruise back upward again when it goes back to 0.3 + lol

Do you mean .025 and .03?  If so, big difference.

Not really it's hard to tell besides the mining income
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=12

There are some good theories though
The hash rate did drop but the units might be taken offline for now and moved to different locations due to electricity availability in China
The hash rate dropped and will be replaced with new units
Someone bought a lot of the old units and the dividend will be big this week

I personally think Friedcat stopped selling for a while due to Kitteh's assumptions
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2509592#msg2509592
So he puts blades on sale for a while, then takes them off when they're no longer a good deal. People will learn that if they want AM products, it's best to get in early when the rewards are best, as they'll offer the best return early and won't be on sale forever.

In the short term its really not that big of a difference the fact they sold out all their units is a big deal and new units are coming by the end of the month or early July just means a lower dividend for a week or two as I mentioned in my other post the medium term risk is still there but not for a while yet.

We have seen the price of the stock jump from 2.5 to 3 to 2.8 recently as well and it has dropped a bit lower on the lower dividend expectations but anyone with a longer duration than a 2 week holder will probably not worry about these things
As they bought in at 2.5, people buying at 3 on the auctions form are also likely bullish over the longer term or just picked bad timing

Friedcat does overdeliver and underestimate as many people point out

But this is all speculation XD

[velacreations]

• Are ASICMINER hardware sales in decline?

yes, Friedcat himself said they stopped selling blades, and by his stats, the USBs are not selling as fast.

• Is ASICMINER underperforming in block mining? With rumors suggesting:

yes, look at the hash estimates, they are way down.

• Unstable electricity in hot southern China
• Large sell-off of ASICMINER hardware to new Chinese investment entries into the Bitcoin mining
• Technical malfunctions at the datacenter

this is all speculation, nothing to back it up.  There is certainly an issue somewhere for the hash rate to drop so much so quickly.

It's probably a good time to have your shares on an exchange (passthrough).

 The time to sell has passed, the price is dropping, and no one is buying.

Someone bought a lot of the old units and the dividend will be big this week

 this is just a rumor, and Friedcat said earlier that blades are not being sold.  So, I think this is wishful thinking, at best.[/list][/list]

[freedomno1]

Yep we have no time machine my furry bear comrade  
So we will see later XD

[romerun]

My speculation is the hash rate drop is the sign of friedcat about to release something massive.

[therustytrombone]

Even at the current 0.01557/share dividend mining rate, that would still be over a 0.5% dividend for a WEEK.  That's still pretty nuts, guys.

[str4wm4n]

Even at the current 0.01557/share dividend mining rate, that would still be over a 0.5% dividend for a WEEK.  That's still pretty nuts, guys.

agreed!

[freedomno1]

TAT shares were slightly above .025 a week ago... for them to go as high as .029 seems like they were a little overpriced for the time.  While I haven't sold any, I'll probably hold off buying more until after the divs because they seem a little much right now.

Should point out that there was a huge wall at 2.5 for that was eaten through around a week ago so it wasn't much of a jump as just letting the throttle run a bit
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=213729.0
ALL SOLD Do not bid

[velacreations]

Even at the current 0.01557/share dividend mining rate, that would still be over a 0.5% dividend for a WEEK.  That's still pretty nuts, guys.

yes, but we were used to 1.5% dividend per week...

[TadpolesIsAWinner]

Quick question:

TAT PT is now 64% of the way to a board seat.  Once he gets that, TAT PT shareholders will:

Once the passthrough reaches 5,000 whole ASICMINER shares (500,000 split shares) it may receive a board member seat. If board member status is confirmed, and Friedcat follows through with the plan to give each board member a trial ASICMINER mining board, any income generated will be shares as follows:

85% of the mining income will be paid out to the shareholders of TAT.ASICMINER on the same weekly dividend schedule ASICMINER currently uses. At the discretion of the TAT.ASICMINER issuer, these extra dividends may be distributed sooner.

Will this create a higher price for the PT shares since they'll be getting higher dividends?  Or will the dividends be so insignificant that it won't make a huge difference?  Or does anyone have any other analysis of this?

Also, this is my first post with my new avatar.  Pretty effing sweet brah!

[chriswilmer]

Quick question:

TAT PT is now 64% of the way to a board seat.  Once he gets that, TAT PT shareholders will:

Once the passthrough reaches 5,000 whole ASICMINER shares (500,000 split shares) it may receive a board member seat. If board member status is confirmed, and Friedcat follows through with the plan to give each board member a trial ASICMINER mining board, any income generated will be shares as follows:

85% of the mining income will be paid out to the shareholders of TAT.ASICMINER on the same weekly dividend schedule ASICMINER currently uses. At the discretion of the TAT.ASICMINER issuer, these extra dividends may be distributed sooner.

Will this create a higher price for the PT shares since they'll be getting higher dividends?  Or will the dividends be so insignificant that it won't make a huge difference?  Or does anyone have any other analysis of this?

Also, this is my first post with my new avatar.  Pretty effing sweet brah!

I have also wondered this... seems insignificant... or maybe I am misunderstanding something?

[freedomno1]

Best to ask in a TAT thread
But we were around 3K as of a week ago 
So good place to ask for an update is here
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=199449.0

[therustytrombone]

Quick question:

TAT PT is now 64% of the way to a board seat.  Once he gets that, TAT PT shareholders will:

Once the passthrough reaches 5,000 whole ASICMINER shares (500,000 split shares) it may receive a board member seat. If board member status is confirmed, and Friedcat follows through with the plan to give each board member a trial ASICMINER mining board, any income generated will be shares as follows:

85% of the mining income will be paid out to the shareholders of TAT.ASICMINER on the same weekly dividend schedule ASICMINER currently uses. At the discretion of the TAT.ASICMINER issuer, these extra dividends may be distributed sooner.

Will this create a higher price for the PT shares since they'll be getting higher dividends?  Or will the dividends be so insignificant that it won't make a huge difference?  Or does anyone have any other analysis of this?

Also, this is my first post with my new avatar.  Pretty effing sweet brah!

Beware

[ThickAsThieves]

Quick question:

TAT PT is now 64% of the way to a board seat.  Once he gets that, TAT PT shareholders will:

Once the passthrough reaches 5,000 whole ASICMINER shares (500,000 split shares) it may receive a board member seat. If board member status is confirmed, and Friedcat follows through with the plan to give each board member a trial ASICMINER mining board, any income generated will be shares as follows:

85% of the mining income will be paid out to the shareholders of TAT.ASICMINER on the same weekly dividend schedule ASICMINER currently uses. At the discretion of the TAT.ASICMINER issuer, these extra dividends may be distributed sooner.

Will this create a higher price for the PT shares since they'll be getting higher dividends?  Or will the dividends be so insignificant that it won't make a huge difference?  Or does anyone have any other analysis of this?

Also, this is my first post with my new avatar.  Pretty effing sweet brah!

Odds are it would have no effect on the share value because every other PT would also get a trial unit.

[nubbins]

Beware

As if we didn't all choose this guy: