ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[freedomno1]

Today's update was the most we've heard from FC in ages and was a breath of fresh air. Adequate assurances all around, which is what I needed.

I agree, slamming 20 questions into the questions for this round definitely satisfied my confidence it also crashed havelock again  
Lol.
Maybe too many bulls or is it panic selling (Kid)

[Swordsoffreedom]

Where are the whales?

Think the site was down so long they took a break and decided to come back later
Anyways the sales orders will probally start getting pulled in a few more hours its rare for Friedcat to post consecutively twice in 2 weeks

[ujka]

Ppl over there in main thread calculated that the profit from selling 60ph of chips, retaining 1/3 for gen4, is about 0.0676 btc/share. If paid weekly from 30th March (12x), that would be 0.0056/share per week.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7157011#msg7157011

If using the 33% yield we were used to base the share price on havelock, that would put shares at 0.87.

[buck19]

Ppl over there in main thread calculated that the profit from selling 60ph of chips, retaining 1/3 for gen4, is about 0.0676 btc/share. If paid weekly from 30th March (12x), that would be 0.0056/share per week.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7157011#msg7157011

If using the 33% yield we were used to base the share price on havelock, that would put shares at 0.87.

I think 33% yield  is a little steep. If AM starts cranking out manufacturing and mining dividends as expected, sooner or later some confidence in the company should return,  perhaps lowering the yield to the 20-25% range, with a corresponding increase in price. To repeat something I heard last year, AM could be one of the only blue chip stocks.

[minerpumpkin]

There are a lot more shares now on Havelock than back in the summer of 2013. That may keep the price lower, as well. Also, people now know that even FC may hit patches were there's no 4-digits% increase per month.

[explorer]

There are a lot more shares now on Havelock than back in the summer of 2013.

More buyers too, if there is anything to this growth model business...

[KarmaShark]

Ppl over there in main thread calculated that the profit from selling 60ph of chips, retaining 1/3 for gen4, is about 0.0676 btc/share. If paid weekly from 30th March (12x), that would be 0.0056/share per week.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7157011#msg7157011

If using the 33% yield we were used to base the share price on havelock, that would put shares at 0.87.

I think 33% yield  is a little steep. If AM starts cranking out manufacturing and mining dividends as expected, sooner or later some confidence in the company should return,  perhaps lowering the yield to the 20-25% range, with a corresponding increase in price. To repeat something I heard last year, AM could be one of the only blue chip stocks.

Since we have several weeks before anything is planned to happen...........Speculation time!


In a base case scenario of AM returning 0.15BTC /share from all Gen3 (chips sales / franchise+self mining + anything else), a 10% APR would give us 1.5BTC/share. Last year the market was setting a much higher APR, however I wonder if the success of a Gen3 launch in addition to a competitive and funded Gen4 roadmap would change that. Investors seeing two planned generations (4 & 5) from the company as well as other endeavours may build long term confidence. Settling for a lower ROI and crowning AM as a blue chip investment in bitcoin securities.

Last year shareholders were enacting large sell walls on the Auction forum in an attempt to keep the share price from rising too fast. With a full year of new investors in the market and an increase in the number of AM shares on Havelock, trading could look much different as well. If the market has an over-valuation period this summer to the 'good times' like it has seen in the under-valuation department to some perceived 'bad news', 1.5BTC+/share could be seen. A range of 1-1.5BTC /share seems likely. Keep in mind we were perched at 0.5 BTC/share weeks ago in anticipation of the dividend, which now appears to be bigger than most expected albeit somewhat delayed.

Would love to hear others constructive thoughts and speculations on the above. AM truly does appear to be one of the very few securities with a medium to long-term vision this early into cryptocurrency.

[JoTheKhan]

Consider:

Many people are still feeling the burn from Neo & Bee, Labcoin, (And now ActiveMining unfortunately) Along with Mt. Gox, many are probably completely done with Securities and others are probably itching to make their money back. AsicMiner being the known security to actually make money for its shareholders (along with Just-Dice).

Also Consider:

People in BTC securities are not investors. That said APR, etc.. (I personally don't think) are the most accurate ways to determine what the share price will reach. Yes it will be a way to accurately deduce the appropriate value of a share, but it won't be accurate of the real selling/buying value due to the weird array of characters in this sphere.

If AsicMiner starts paying divs, and companies like HashRatio, Rock, etc.. start selling profitable chips then the share price will increase substantially, not only that but it will be very very very fast/quick to increase as the entire market price right now seems to be based on Havelock. (Which is just a mere 25K of 400k shares). So going from .3BTC a share to say 1 or 2BTC a share will be a very fast climb compared to what it was last summer/fall when there was Bitfunder/BTCT, etc..

That said, I have no idea what the share price will end up reaching but I do know that if someone where to buy shares today, they will be able to sell them for more later. From the information from both Jutarul, FC, and seeing information from Rockie, etc.. I can't see how the share price won't shoot far higher than .24BTC off of news alone. Once that first Div hits I think the price will skyrocket.

[kingcrimson]

When are divs expected to come in?   edit: "When the cash-flow becomes positive." could mean anything

[chairforce1]

If you are selling please tell me why. Thanks.

[Lohoris]

If you are selling please tell me why. Thanks.

Trust has been eroded by bad communications.
AM's value is the trust investors had in the company + the steady dividends, gone the trust gone the investors, gone the dividends gone more investors.

Or, let's put it another way: would you trust a semi-anonymous unregulated Chinese company who basically have no reason nor incentive to keep its word anymore?
Maybe!
I'm not saying they'll just screw you, but if you totally discount the possibility then you are a delusional fool and you should invest.
Otherwise do some math, discover your price, and buy only if the actual price is lower.

[stripykitteh]

I'm no longer an AM investor but I personally think it's dangerous to think that a 10% APR is reasonable for such a company.

AM have only been in business for a bit less than 2 years.

It's far too murky to see much out beyond the current 25 btc reward era to say what the company might return after that, so I'd only only assign a small fraction of AM's value to what they earn when the reward drops in half.

It looks as though the next block-halving could occur as soon as early 2016. Transaction fees aren't yet coming on at anywhere near the rate to replace the loss of 12.5 btc reward.

AM has some real competition now, and it'll be interesting to see if they're able to introduce new tech quickly enough to avoid a total loss of dividends, as has happened for several months.

If btc goes to a multi-thousand dollar valuation and stays there, the competition is only going to get more intense.

Oh yeh, they've also reported problems in converting income from fiat to btc. That's a horrible problem to have if and when the next bubble occurs.

[gogxmagog]

So long as the divs start rolling well before the next btc spike we will be fine.
If the most optimistic predictions for am's performance come true, I will be able to cover my losses from virtually every other garbage scheme I bought into, plus some. God I hope so, what a miserable experience the bitcoin securities market has been for me this last year. If am fails me I'm done like the dog's dinner. If they can shock the market into a massive panic buy with those fat fat divs we all expect, it will make my year of ulcers all worthwhile.
we could see a perfect storm and I think am has what it takes to go all the way!
I can't wait!

Much love and faith to the cat who is braised!

[minerpumpkin]

So long as the divs start rolling well before the next btc spike we will be fine.
If the most optimistic predictions for am's performance come true, I will be able to cover my losses from virtually every other garbage scheme I bought into, plus some. God I hope so, what a miserable experience the bitcoin securities market has been for me this last year. If am fails me I'm done like the dog's dinner. If they can shock the market into a massive panic buy with those fat fat divs we all expect, it will make my year of ulcers all worthwhile.
we could see a perfect storm and I think am has what it takes to go all the way!
I can't wait!

Much love and faith to the cat who is braised!

How much 'fat fat divs' do you expect and what predictions are you basing them on? (Honest question, not rhetorical!)

[gogxmagog]

Just looking at karmashark's post above.

A kid can dream, can't he?

Seriously, if am does half as good, I'm sitting pretty

[Zubilica]

So long as the divs start rolling well before the next btc spike we will be fine.
If the most optimistic predictions for am's performance come true, I will be able to cover my losses from virtually every other garbage scheme I bought into, plus some. God I hope so, what a miserable experience the bitcoin securities market has been for me this last year. If am fails me I'm done like the dog's dinner. If they can shock the market into a massive panic buy with those fat fat divs we all expect, it will make my year of ulcers all worthwhile.
we could see a perfect storm and I think am has what it takes to go all the way!
I can't wait!

Much love and faith to the cat who is braised!

How much 'fat fat divs' do you expect and what predictions are you basing them on? (Honest question, not rhetorical!)

I expect for the next 6 mo ~0.2 BTC div/share

[AcoinL.L.C]

If you are selling please tell me why. Thanks.

Because this company is way over valued? BTC based investments makes people stupid. They throw BTC at it, just because its in BTC. This business is HIGH RISK. Now with larger competition thats only growing, its going to be interesting if they can maintain marketshare. BTC is worth much more than it was a year ago when the dividends were a bit meatier. Dividends will never reach those levels again unless BTC plummets, in which case its likely this company will go under. If you think this company is worth $68,000,000 (current market cap @ havelock prices), you are a fool. Im flipping a few shares I bought and will continue to do so, its easy BTC made.


Only being realistic here. I doubt they will make over 5% a year in ROI at its current price, and thats in a good scenario. You might as well just go with a real Blue chip stock such as Procter & Gamble that has a nice year dividend, much less risk.

[Whtwabbit]

If you are selling please tell me why. Thanks.

Because this company is way over valued? BTC based investments makes people stupid. They throw BTC at it, just because its in BTC. This business is HIGH RISK. Now with larger competition thats only growing, its going to be interesting if they can maintain marketshare. BTC is worth much more than it was a year ago when the dividends were a bit meatier. Dividends will never reach those levels again unless BTC plummets, in which case its likely this company will go under. If you think this company is worth $68,000,000 (current market cap @ havelock prices), you are a fool. Im flipping a few shares I bought and will continue to do so, its easy BTC made.


Only being realistic here. I doubt they will make over 5% a year in ROI at its current price, and thats in a good scenario. You might as well just go with a real Blue chip stock such as Procter & Gamble that has a nice year dividend, much less risk.

Great advice if you are a whore for gov debt based money,

[ujka]

There are about 8 or 9 companies with ASIC design now, and 2850000 btc to be minted before next block reward halving in two years. If AM gets 10% of that, with chip sales and mining, it's 0.71/share.

[minerpumpkin]

I expect for the next 6 mo ~0.2 BTC div/share

Not lunatic, but a tad too optimistic, I believe. Currently, I'd say 0.1 BTC/share for all of gen 3.