Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[chilly2k]

Here's an unusual strategy:

Seems like some kind of reverse martingale to me, with 50% or so increase on win.

   It is really weird.  His starting bets are not always the same (as far as I can tell).  But it looks like he takes his starting bet and adds the winnings for the next bet.  So he won around 100 clams risking around 4.  It looks like he's actually losing quite a bit to get that 100 clam win...    

   Actually just in that screen shot, he lost around 37 clams to make 100.  That's not bad. of course that's just one screen shot.   

[ranlo]

Here's an unusual strategy:

Seems like some kind of reverse martingale to me, with 50% or so increase on win.

   It is really weird.  His starting bets are not always the same (as far as I can tell).  But it looks like he takes his starting bet and adds the winnings for the next bet.  So he won around 100 clams risking around 4.  It looks like he's actually losing quite a bit to get that 100 clam win...   

   Actually just in that screen shot, he lost around 37 clams to make 100.  That's not bad. of course that's just one screen shot.   

I did a quick run-down and I came up with ~450-500 CLAM of profit through that screenshot. A far cry from your result.

[chilly2k]

Here's an unusual strategy:

Seems like some kind of reverse martingale to me, with 50% or so increase on win.

   It is really weird.  His starting bets are not always the same (as far as I can tell).  But it looks like he takes his starting bet and adds the winnings for the next bet.  So he won around 100 clams risking around 4.  It looks like he's actually losing quite a bit to get that 100 clam win...    

   Actually just in that screen shot, he lost around 37 clams to make 100.  That's not bad. of course that's just one screen shot.    

I did a quick run-down and I came up with ~450-500 CLAM of profit through that screenshot. A far cry from your result.

   Try it again.  If you start at the bottom.  He bets 2.869 and wins 1.501.  He's not taking that profit.  His next bet is for 4.370 (2.869 + 1.501) So he's still risking his original bet (2.869) and now the profit he made (1.501).  He won that and tries again (6.656).  And then he busted (10.137)  

   He didn't lose 10.137 he lost 2.869, and the time to make the other bets.  If you look, the only streak he stopped increasing and locked in his profit, was the one he won 100 on.  

   So he lost every other streak.  But you only count the initial bet in each streak (because that's the actual lose)
2.869 5.393 6.654 4.368 8.210 6.652 5.390 (4.363)

He lost 39.536 ( + all profit) before his winning streak started.  

[dooglus]

Actually just in that screen shot, he lost around 37 clams to make 100.  That's not bad. of course that's just one screen shot.   

And of course I posted that particular screenshot because it was unusual - it ended with a long winning streak.

Usually he doesn't hit the long winning streak, and takes a net loss.

[dooglus]

Actually just in that screen shot, he lost around 37 clams to make 100.  That's not bad. of course that's just one screen shot.   

I did a quick run-down and I came up with ~450-500 CLAM of profit through that screenshot. A far cry from your result.

Looks to me like you're both wrong.

Summing the profit-per-bet:

(+ 1.5 2.2 3.4 -10.1
   2.8 4.2 -12.5
   3.4 5.3 -15.4
   -8.2
   2.2 3.4 5.3 -15.4
   4.2 -12.5
   3.4 -10.1
   2.8 -8.2
   2.2 3.4 5.2 8.0 12.2 18.7 28.5 43.4 66.1 100.7 -1.0) = 239.1

ie. a net profit of around 240 CLAMs.

[filliamHmuffman]

Hey doog,

I hit 'divest all' both yesterday and today and what showed up in my balance was less than the amount I had invested...yesterday it was short about 2 clam and today it was short about 0.15 clam...I didn't see any huge bets come through around those times or anything.

Just for kicks today after the first divest I hit invest all and divest all again and came out with the same amount of clam...is it a time-based thing? Is this where the 10% fee on staking gets taken out?

[chilly2k]

Actually just in that screen shot, he lost around 37 clams to make 100.  That's not bad. of course that's just one screen shot.   

I did a quick run-down and I came up with ~450-500 CLAM of profit through that screenshot. A far cry from your result.

Looks to me like you're both wrong.

Summing the profit-per-bet:

(+ 1.5 2.2 3.4 -10.1
   2.8 4.2 -12.5
   3.4 5.3 -15.4
   -8.2
   2.2 3.4 5.3 -15.4
   4.2 -12.5
   3.4 -10.1
   2.8 -8.2
   2.2 3.4 5.2 8.0 12.2 18.7 28.5 43.4 66.1 100.7 -1.0) = 239.1

ie. a net profit of around 240 CLAMs.

   Yup, I missed the -8.2 bet and forgot he would keep all of the profit on the last streak. 

That's still to risky for me.  You have to wade through all of those loses, hoping to hit that 10 green streak.   He is betting 60% or was it 65% (can't see the screen shot while typing this).  Even then he could go quite a while...

[dooglus]

Hey doog,

I hit 'divest all' both yesterday and today and what showed up in my balance was less than the amount I had invested...yesterday it was short about 2 clam and today it was short about 0.15 clam...I didn't see any huge bets come through around those times or anything.

Just for kicks today after the first divest I hit invest all and divest all again and came out with the same amount of clam...is it a time-based thing? Is this where the 10% fee on staking gets taken out?

See the 'Invest' tab on the site:

Commission is charged when profits are divested, or at midnight (UTC) on Sunday each week, whichever happens sooner. Commission is never charged twice on the same profits. For example if you invest 100 CLAM and it grows to 110 CLAM by the end of the first week, you will be charged 10% of your 10 CLAM profit. If your remaining 109 CLAM investment then shrinks to 105 CLAM over the next week, you will not be charged any commission at the end of that week. And then, if it grows to 119 CLAM by the end of the 3rd week, you will only be charged 10% commission on the new 10 CLAM of profit over the previous high of 109 CLAM. At any point you could divest up to your original investment of 100 CLAM without being charged commission since we consider that when divesting you divest the original investment first, and profits later.

If you try to divest so much that you don't have enough invested to cover the commission you owe, commission is charged at that point. If you leave enough invested to cover the commission you owe, it won't be charged until the end of the week.

[dooglus]

That's still to risky for me.  You have to wade through all of those loses, hoping to hit that 10 green streak.

Right - it's not a winning strategy long term. Just like every other strategy, it doesn't work...

[dooglus]

dental just won a 0.1 CLAM bet at 0.001% chance, making a profit of almost 10,000 CLAMs!



... and the chat went wild (and a bit spammy) ...



Updated profit charts:





Edit: and then...







Edit2: and it's gone:





Edit3: dental's all-time profit chart:

[singpays]

dental just won a 0.1 CLAM bet at 0.001% chance, making a profit of almost 10,000 CLAMs!



... and the chat went wild (and a bit spammy) ...



Updated profit charts:

Wtg big hit man detal enjoy and next win same waiting u

[tspacepilot]

Looks like the profit chart went back up to 170Kish not long after.  Did dental lose it back?

[FreeHealthCare]

Dental was a really nice guy before and after he won, I'm sorry for his loss and hopes he can bring his 1200 clam somewhere

[dooglus]

Looks like the profit chart went back up to 170Kish not long after.  Did dental lose it back?

See the "Edit2" part of my post for his loss.

[Marcopolo123]

jesus. chasing luck too hard

[grunt]

If I won 10 <1% odds bets in a row I'd probably chase that dragon pretty hard as well.

[dooglus]

If I won 10 <1% odds bets in a row I'd probably chase that dragon pretty hard as well.

Ha! Except I have my filter set to only show bets which win or lose at least 10 CLAMs. So you don't see all the bets of less than 10 that he lost, only the ones that won.

[*Sakura*]

Thanks dooglus for your help with the restore access to my Just-Dice.com account. You're a real man!

[james.lent]

If I won 10 <1% odds bets in a row I'd probably chase that dragon pretty hard as well.

Which dragon ? i need luck like that too

And holy dental's graph .... Should have cashed out a happy person... :S

[dooglus]

If I won 10 <1% odds bets in a row I'd probably chase that dragon pretty hard as well.

Which dragon ? i need luck like that too

And holy dental's graph .... Should have cashed out a happy person... :S

It seems to be a reference to this expression:

This term is a bit more complicated than merely "smoking opium". It starts when you have your first high, the world is peaceful, everything is perfect, you're numb, but in the best way possible. But, soon, it starts wearing off. Fast. Your mind races, you're pulled out of your dream world. You crave the drug more and more, wanting to feel the same way as you did on your first high. You go to the dealer and buy the same amount you had the first time, and smoke. Still feels good, but not as good as first time. You go and buy more. Closer, but not quite there. You're stuck, you don't know what to do. You want to go back to that little dream world and stay forever, but your body is already developing a tolerance. You panic. You use all your money to buy more and more and more, but still, not the same as that first time. You realize that you have no more money, so you start selling your things, pawning whatever could get you that next bag. Still, nothing compared to what you had on that first, magical time. So, you're broke and own nothing. But you don't care, all you care about is getting back to the first high. You start stealing, doing "favors", whatever gets you the money for the attempt. Your life becomes a living hell, all in search of a repeat of the first high. That's chasing the dragon.

Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chasing_the_dragon#Metaphorical