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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 434297 times)
TradeFortress
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August 06, 2013, 04:55:00 AM
 #1341

Maybe with the new commission Dooglus can finally add Inputs withdrawals Cheesy

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August 06, 2013, 07:15:05 AM
 #1342

Hi Investors,

You may want to invest or divest, depending on what you think will happen. I'm going to bet at least 92 BTC, depending on the contributions I get by next week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg2875562#msg2875562

According to the odds of one roll: There is a 87% chance I will win. There is a 13% chance I will lose.

According to probability theories on loss runs / consecutive losses / loss streaks, there are all sorts of numbers that come up, but the gist of it is: 7 losses in a row will not happen more than 99.999% of the time. But, as some others will tell you, having lost already 6, does not mean I won't lose the 7th.

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August 06, 2013, 11:05:12 AM
 #1343

Hi Investors,

You may want to invest or divest, depending on what you think will happen. I'm going to bet at least 92 BTC, depending on the contributions I get by next week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg2875562#msg2875562

According to the odds of one roll: There is a 87% chance I will win. There is a 13% chance I will lose.

According to probability theories on loss runs / consecutive losses / loss streaks, there are all sorts of numbers that come up, but the gist of it is: 7 losses in a row will not happen more than 99.999% of the time. But, as some others will tell you, having lost already 6, does not mean I won't lose the 7th.


92 btc is almost nothing. And in the long run, investors will win.
So it does not really matter what you are doing.
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August 06, 2013, 12:53:36 PM
 #1344

Not a single comment re. me doubling the commission rate?

Come on; this is unacceptable gouging.  Who does he think he is.  Etc?

Here's a profit chart.  I added a green "expected - 5k" line to show how we're running parallel to expectation, just about 5k below it.

Expectation is that we'll continue to do so.  We won't, of course - we'll do better or worse that expected.



Thanks! Whenever you get around to automated plots (or give access to historical data), what I was thinking about was one showing daily volume in BTC. This way investors can calculate what the expected return on investment should be. The loans on bitfunder return 0.05%/day, and if I think the risk is equal on both sites, I'd want to put more in just-dice if it is > 0.05%/day return.
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August 06, 2013, 01:51:26 PM
 #1345

Hi Investors,

You may want to invest or divest, depending on what you think will happen. I'm going to bet at least 92 BTC, depending on the contributions I get by next week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg2875562#msg2875562

According to the odds of one roll: There is a 87% chance I will win. There is a 13% chance I will lose.

According to probability theories on loss runs / consecutive losses / loss streaks, there are all sorts of numbers that come up, but the gist of it is: 7 losses in a row will not happen more than 99.999% of the time. But, as some others will tell you, having lost already 6, does not mean I won't lose the 7th.

Yes, please, come whenever you want, you and your magical maths are welcome.

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August 06, 2013, 03:24:39 PM
 #1346

I am fine with the fee as long as development continues.  I would encourage you to try to get out of some of the stuff that is "wasting" your time.... manually pushing deposits for people who cant wait for a block, creating charts for people (automate this!!!), trying to explain basic stats and probability to fools who will never learn.  Less of this, more cool new features for Just dice and I will be happy!

GOOD WORK SO FAR DOOG!

I was very pleased to have my 200 btc hit right away. If this can be done you guys should.

I have no issue with the lost coin but if it took me 20 mins to get the coin in i might have just left. Time is money.

But you were a supporter of SDice, where the wait time was 10 mins per bet!

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August 06, 2013, 03:51:24 PM
 #1347

My goal was only to get the high score.
Idea: weekly (or bi-weekly) high scores, with achievements to unlock.
That would be our version of the free appetisers to people gambling a lot.


Totally supporting this over here.

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August 06, 2013, 04:20:36 PM
 #1348

Does anyone think playing a sound effect for winning would be too annoying?
I was reading this article and thought of JD,haha.

>>When you hear the “ding” that you have a text – The dopamine system is especially sensitive to “cues” that a reward is coming. If there is a small, specific cue that signifies that something is going to happen, that sets off our dopamine system. So when there is a sound when a text message or email arrives, or a visual cue, that enhances the addictive effect (for the psychologists out there: remember Pavlov).


source: http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/brain-wise/201209/why-were-all-addicted-texts-twitter-and-google
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August 06, 2013, 04:28:04 PM
 #1349

Over 40,000 in the betting pool now?  That is a chunk of change

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August 06, 2013, 04:45:50 PM
 #1350

Does anyone think playing a sound effect for winning would be too annoying?
I was reading this article and thought of JD,haha.

>>When you hear the “ding” that you have a text – The dopamine system is especially sensitive to “cues” that a reward is coming. If there is a small, specific cue that signifies that something is going to happen, that sets off our dopamine system. So when there is a sound when a text message or email arrives, or a visual cue, that enhances the addictive effect (for the psychologists out there: remember Pavlov).


source: http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/brain-wise/201209/why-were-all-addicted-texts-twitter-and-google

The last few days I have had on as background music the sounds from http://www.bitlisten.com/ set for Mt. Gox trades, Instrument = Wikki & Scale pitch with transaction amount (bigger transaction = deeper sound). It is so pleasant I even leave it running overnight, if doog could make some similar sound options for JD bets, wins/losses or profit that would be cool.

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August 06, 2013, 05:15:34 PM
 #1351

Over 40,000 in the betting pool now?  That is a chunk of change
Dooglus is waiting until 100,000 to run off with it all:)
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August 06, 2013, 05:18:42 PM
 #1352

Over 40,000 in the betting pool now?  That is a chunk of change
Dooglus is waiting until 100,000 to run off with it all:)

Would that make it the biggest Bitcoin heist in history?

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August 06, 2013, 05:52:09 PM
 #1353

Over 40,000 in the betting pool now?  That is a chunk of change
Dooglus is waiting until 100,000 to run off with it all:)

Would that make it the biggest Bitcoin heist in history?
Totally. He would make the pirateat40 seem like the little leagues!
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August 06, 2013, 06:06:55 PM
 #1354

would be nice if we have some random commission free weeks for the rise from 5 to 10.
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August 06, 2013, 06:22:58 PM
 #1355

Would that make it the biggest Bitcoin heist in history?
Totally. He would make the pirateat40 seem like the little leagues!

Does anyone know how much pirate is estimated to have stolen, and the dollar value?  I thought it was more than 100k BTC, but I may be wrong.

Here's an updated profit chart:


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August 06, 2013, 07:36:47 PM
 #1356

Does anyone know how much pirate is estimated to have stolen, and the dollar value?  I thought it was more than 100k BTC, but I may be wrong.

If I remember correctly, somewhere around 500,000 btc. This was when it was trading around $10, so $5,000,000 total. In the SEC statement regarding Pirate, I believe they said he only profited around $170,000. Either he threw most of it away trying to trade on exchanges, or there is still a large majority of it out there hidden by Trendon Shavers.
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August 06, 2013, 07:43:44 PM
 #1357

Does anyone know how much pirate is estimated to have stolen, and the dollar value?  I thought it was more than 100k BTC, but I may be wrong.

If I remember correctly, somewhere around 500,000 btc. This was when it was trading around $10, so $5,000,000 total. In the SEC statement regarding Pirate, I believe they said he only profited around $170,000. Either he threw most of it away trying to trade on exchanges, or there is still a large majority of it out there hidden by Trendon Shavers.
Ok, well if Dooglus is anything, he is a perfectionist. He will not run off until he at least ties pirate for 1st place.  (Makes note to self to auto-divest at 499,999 invested).
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August 06, 2013, 07:52:01 PM
 #1358





from: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120119.msg2804970#msg2804970

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August 06, 2013, 07:55:19 PM
 #1359


Did a US court make all of this? The US courts that can't even figure out how to use Skype and don't know what a WiFi network is did next-level blockchain analysis?

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August 06, 2013, 08:07:07 PM
 #1360

SEC - just follow the linked thread.

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