Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[tucenaber]

I forced myself to stay invested the whole time because divesting while being down wold have meant staying behind with certainty. Trust the math and wait.
I would be very disappointed if the new rules now make the whale swim away.

You cannot run the site based on keeping one player.  There is no future to the site then. 

I never said that. I have taken a risk but I will be cheated out of the return.

[cbhelp]

There was NEVER a guarantee that if you invest, you profit.  These people screaming to halt new investments are the ones who shouldnt be investing in the first place. 

[theskillzdatklls]

18:36:09 (153338) <percent> I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME.


UTTERY STUPIDITY  TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.

WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.

You want to invest in a site which can swing 10,000 BTC per day on a 30k bankroll? Most do not nor was that the intended design.

Can I respond with a "hell yes".

If that swing hurts you just invest less.

[Ekonom]

Well considering we can still consider the casino "beta" and the 1% limit was flawed but at the same time correcting it impaired investors ability to make back their money, I don't see the problem with TEMPORARILY freezing new investments. It doesn't hurt the site either. It makes sense because of the lower limit.

When I invested, I didn't know that the max limit could be lowered at anytime while I'm in the red.

Actually personally, I invested in the middle of the Nakowa show becasue 1- I though it was good advertising 2- I thought he would soon lose it all back.

[nicolaennio]

I think today Nakowa lost 1,820BTC with small bets (max bet 70BTC). I wonder what would have been the result if the max bet was not lowered...

EDIT: Nakowa just sent 1,000BTC to an unused address, it might well be J-D... We will know as soon as it hits the first confirmation.

As I've said: a degenerate gambler, we just need math do its thing. There's no point in chickening out.

Even though I agree on many points you say, I believe Kelly criterion is too much an aggressive way to play against a massive gambler. Have you run some simulations? I did and the plots of the earnings are scary (some of them are nice too). Suppose that we keep playing with this maxbet and the bankroll still shrinks, then a lot of people will be very scared and will quit the website thinking it is scam or else, then what do we do, we play 100B bankroll? Then we really will wait a lot

What I really cannot understand is how people invests in a gambling site without realizing what 1% house edge + 1% max profit means. Returns will wildly fluctuate because of variance if whales push the max bet, that was clear from the very first moment - take or leave it.

Well I think it is partially true. People may well see that the current 1% is 30000 euros and can conceive that it does not exist a gambler ready to pay that amount of money for a single gamble. Did you really think that a whale existed? One playing 13M euros in just one day? I did not and I think many people did not as well and this kind of reasoning is sort of out of the math and is personal, of course they do not write it in the website.

In any case I never divested in any moment :-)

[cbhelp]

1% is not flawed.  1% is actually pretty low.  Kelly Criterion, as another person posted.

[spartanmorning]

18:36:09 (153338) <percent> I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME.


UTTERY STUPIDITY  TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.

WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.

I love that no one sees that if indeed this was a cheat and/or inside job this is the ultimate way to disguise an exit. Things were getting too hot, how to maintain credibility and yet keep most profits? give back a bit, reinforce the red herring ideas that this was about max bet size, and keep the 13k coins you won while not affecting the credibility of the site.

Sorry, but this is hilarious to watch. I hope I'm wrong but expect this will end in tears for 'investors' that aren't part of the JD team.

Let me guess the next moves:

1) investors go back to making some slow but steady money again. Faith is restored. More money comes in to the pool (who doesn't like easy money?).

2) another whale or set of smaller but not trivial 'gamblers' start defying the odds and investors lose all of that money plus some.

and/or

3) suddenly all money is lost, no one ever hears from JD again. Who can do anything about it?

[theskillzdatklls]

I think its amazing all these geniuses think a 1% edge means you have to win.

The original game plan was fine and changing it is really unfair/cheating the whale.  if he leaves, this site sucks.

[GeoRW]

he'll never come back again; that's it; some investors will wait ages to recover their losses as everyone will invest back now  

[mechs]

he'll never come back again; that's it; some investors will wait ages to recover their losses as everyone will invest back now  

The fact so many divested and noone was reinvesting under the old rules shows it was not viewed by anyone as a good investment anymore.

[mechs]

some investors will wait ages to recover their losses as everyone will invest back now  

Exactly, those who stayed are going to wait ages for recovery, while those who left and go back now are going to benefit from the lower variance! Insane.

Then Doog should cap investment amount and allow those with investment losses to invest before those who do not.  But it would be complicated to implement.

[integrity42]

Investors took the risk when they let Nakowa win 13,000BTC, and now they have no chance to see that risk through to the end.  

Dooglus changed the max profit without any warning. Thats not fair to investors.  He could have at least said 'hey, im thinking about doing this, or that.'

He could have set up a poll on the site where 1BTC in investment = 1 vote or something like that

Poll could have been for: 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, etc.

I'd be willing to bet 10BTC that most investors are not happy with the change.

[trout]

so, let's face it: doog was just not able to sit it out.
He just couldn't help stopping it.

Actually he did a similar thing the first time: he stopped the site
briefly when nakowa was winning a lot.

but anyway. Not enough cold blood = bad casion operator.
Too bad, it was a nice site.

[mechs]

Investors took the risk when they let Nakowa win 13,000BTC, and now they have no chance to see that risk through to the end.  

Dooglus changed the max profit without any warning. Thats not fair to investors.  He could have at least said 'hey, im thinking about doing this, or that.'

He could have set up a poll on the site where 1BTC in investment = 1 vote or something like that

Poll could have been for: 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, etc.

I'd be willing to bet 10BTC that most investors are not happy with the change.

So Nakowa logs on, invests 20000 BTC and votes against.  

[dooglus]

Nakowa is now playing with two ID (percent + balotelli) to "get around" the max profit restriction.... His literal words:

I wasn't under the impression that Balotelli is the same guy as nakowa.  Or did he make an account called balotelli recemtly?  The one I'm thinking of is user 13839 and has been running a very successful martingale strategy for weeks if not months now.  Very disciplined and quite regular.  Not like a nakowa play at all.

[Peter R]

EDIT: in the last session his lowest bet is 3BTC...

Sorry if I've used your quote out of context, but if this session is like his past sessions, his lowest bet is probably 0.01 BTC.  You can't really tell this without looking at the nakowa.txt files, as these micro-bets are rarely streamed when viewing in real time.  He must have some reason (valid or not) for these micro-bets.  Earlier it was suggested that he was looking for specific pattern sequences to emerge and I think we have some evidence to support this.

Just an excerpt from Nakowa as uid = 150486 (notice all the 1000000 [0.01BTC] bets)

uid   betid   nonce   bet   chance   profit

150486   138192270   2100   20000000000   495000   20000000000
150486   138192295   2101   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138192338   2102   10000000000   495000   10000000000
150486   138192368   2103   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138192416   2104   10000000000   495000   10000000000
150486   138192432   2105   10000000000   495000   -10000000000
150486   138192482   2106   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138192505   2107   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138192521   2108   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138192555   2109   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138192587   2110   20000000000   495000   20000000000
150486   138192614   2111   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138192646   2112   10000000000   495000   -10000000000
150486   138192694   2113   20000000000   495000   20000000000
150486   138192728   2114   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138192756   2115   10000000000   495000   10000000000
150486   138192781   2116   10000000000   495000   -10000000000
150486   138192810   2117   20000000000   495000   20000000000
150486   138192838   2118   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138192874   2119   10000000000   495000   -10000000000
150486   138192895   2120   20000000000   495000   -20000000000
150486   138192926   2121   30000000000   495000   30000000000
150486   138193005   2122   20000000000   495000   20000000000
150486   138193036   2123   20000000000   495000   20000000000
150486   138193055   2124   20000000000   495000   -20000000000
150486   138193090   2125   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193110   2126   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193133   2127   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193146   2128   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193165   2129   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193183   2130   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193201   2131   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138193217   2132   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193233   2133   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138193252   2134   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193285   2135   20000000000   495000   -20000000000
150486   138193334   2136   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193365   2137   10000000000   495000   -10000000000
150486   138193389   2138   20000000000   495000   -20000000000
150486   138193427   2139   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193458   2140   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193467   2141   1000000   495000   -1000000
150486   138193481   2142   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138193495   2143   1000000   495000   1000000
150486   138193530   2144   10000000000   495000   10000000000
150486   138193545   2145   10000000000   495000   10000000000
150486   138193567   2146   10000000000   495000   10000000000
150486   138193578   2147   10000000000   495000   -10000000000
150486   138193603   2148   20000000000   495000   20000000000

[integrity42]

Dooglus,  A serious question for you.

As you know, the 'investment' size has always been dictated by market demand. You set the rules (1% edge and 1% max bet), and market votes with their wallets.

Nakowa came and won 10,000BTC and brought the investment down from 55,000 to 45,000. 1/3 decided they couldn't take the heat and decided to divest.

2/3 were happy to keep their 30,000BTC invested and wait for Nakowa to bust.... But you gave them no warning that the 1% max bet could ever be arbitrarily changed without notice.

Don't you think a 5-day announcement would have been fair?  

At least Nakowa would have seen it and said "Oh, damn, I only have 5 days left to keep winning" and given the 30,000BTC investors a change to recoup their losses.

Would you consider announcing ahead of time in the future any changes?? I thinks that would be fair to everyone.

[Rampion]

some investors will wait ages to recover their losses as everyone will invest back now  

Exactly, those who stayed are going to wait ages for recovery, while those who left and go back now are going to benefit from the lower variance! Insane.

Yes, that's me. Kinda hurts to know that even dooglus divested, plus he suddenly changed the rules while the only customers that could have made us quickly recoup those losses was playing, pissing him off big time.

I was ready to lose 100% of my investment playing against Nakowa because I have faith in both math and the weaknesses of gambler psychology, but realizing that it will now take ages to recoup that investment because of a management decision really sucks.

[Rampion]

Nakowa is now playing with two ID (percent + balotelli) to "get around" the max profit restriction.... His literal words:

I wasn't under the impression that Balotelli is the same guy as nakowa.  Or did he make an account called balotelli recemtly?  The one I'm thinking of is user 13839 and has been running a very successful martingale strategy for weeks if not months now.  Very disciplined and quite regular.  Not like a nakowa play at all.

Cake (which I thought is percent/celeste/nakowa/allover) said in the chat that Balotelli and Nakowa were the same guy, and it was his way to "cheat" the max profit limit (lol at that).

As there can be 100 "cake" on the site, it might well have been a joker.

[trout]

btw, the worst thing - for JD and remaining investors- is that nakowa will lose his money somewhere else.
no way he just stops