Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[DomenicoRomano]

Is there a mathematician in the house?

How do I analyse the odds of this strategy working?

https://i.imgur.com/HDPSMTA.png

He bets at 66%, which pays out 1.5x.  He starts at 0.06 BTC (this first bet is not shown in the screenshot), doubles on loss, halves on win, never halves below 0.06.

So it's a random walk, which makes a net profit of 0.03 BTC each time it gets back to betting 0.06.  Steps down are about twice as likely as steps up, so it seems unlikely to reach max bet and bust very quickly.

But the question is how do I calculate the probability of such a progression busting, given that he can afford to go N steps up the random walk?

Is it a Markov Chain thing?  Or how do I analyse it?

I can't analyze this but I can run a simulation.

My simulation:
  edge = 0.01
  probability of winning a bet = 0.66
  First Bet = 1.0
  startingBank = 100.0
  Goal = desiredBank / startingBank.

  Bet firstBet
  do
    If win bet max(previousBet/2, firstBet)
    If lose bet min(bank, previousBet*2.0)
  until Bank = goal * startingBank  or bank = 0.0.


The simulation calculates the results over 100,000 tries.  It shows the ratio of reaching the goal to losing the bank.

Goal      Wins ratio     Equivalent House Edge
1.01        0.988            0.0012
1.1          0.8904          0.0195
2.0          0.423            0.153

The house edge for a single bet is 0.01.

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[autotoss]

Did any of the major just-dice investors to invest in ads? It looks like a dilemma. You invest your money in ads, but the profit is distributed to all. The individual investors to invest in just-dice more profitable, than advertising. But when no one isn't investing in ads is bad for everyone.

[dooglus]

Did any of the major just-dice investors to invest in ads? It looks like a dilemma. You invest your money in ads, but the profit is distributed to all. The individual investors to invest in just-dice more profitable, than advertising. But when no one isn't investing in ads is bad for everyone.

I think this might be a case of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons - paying for ads increases total profit, but any one investor's share of that increase would be less than what they paid.

[autotoss]

yea. Do you have a solution? Are you not worried about this now?

[wachtwoord]

Did any of the major just-dice investors to invest in ads? It looks like a dilemma. You invest your money in ads, but the profit is distributed to all. The individual investors to invest in just-dice more profitable, than advertising. But when no one isn't investing in ads is bad for everyone.

I think this might be a case of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons - paying for ads increases total profit, but any one investor's share of that increase would be less than what they paid.

The solution is to rake the profits and pay it from that or not advertise.

[autotoss]

The solution is to rake the profits and pay it from that or not advertise.

This is not a good idea. Just-dice needs in the investments. Just-dice will lose a lot of investors, if they will need to create ad.

[dooglus]

This is not a good idea. Just-dice needs in the investments. Just-dice will lose a lot of investors, if they will need to create ad.

I think it is a good idea.  It's not fair for some investors to promote the site at their own expense and others to do nothing and reap the rewards of those doing the promotion.

The advertising budget should come out of the commission that the site collects from all (profitable) investors.

And as for Just-Dice needing investors, I'm sure we could manage with a few less.  50k BTC is a huge sum at today's prices.

Quick edit: NO! I'm not hinting that commission is going to increase.  It isn't.

[Zephir]

Is there a mathematician in the house?

How do I analyse the odds of this strategy working?



He bets at 66%, which pays out 1.5x.  He starts at 0.06 BTC (this first bet is not shown in the screenshot), doubles on loss, halves on win, never halves below 0.06.

So it's a random walk, which makes a net profit of 0.03 BTC each time it gets back to betting 0.06.  Steps down are about twice as likely as steps up, so it seems unlikely to reach max bet and bust very quickly.

But the question is how do I calculate the probability of such a progression busting, given that he can afford to go N steps up the random walk?

Is it a Markov Chain thing?  Or how do I analyse it?

I think this kind of betting is a sort of http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progression_d%E2%80%99Alembert (german).

[autotoss]

I think it is a good idea.  It's not fair for some investors to promote the site at their own expense and others to do nothing and reap the rewards of those doing the promotion.[/quote]for example, one investor wrote dozens of articles per month, another investor bought one banner to simulate the ads activity. It does not solve the problem of tragedy of the commons.

50k BTC is a huge sum at today's prices.

50k it's 250 btc max profit. $300k right now. This is higher than the standard bets for the highrollers on the baccarat in Macau. But just-dice is a martingale site primarily.

just-dice offers 34 double only. just-dice was close to 35 (need 68719 btc site bankroll)

[AlexM]

Rookie question that is probably one of the stupidest of the day.

I am a current investor in the bank, I would love to invest more but there I am scared to increase my investment.

Simply put: What makes Just-Dice a safe place to store Bitcoins?

More possibly unnecessary details:
I understand as the bank, the risk I can loose Bitcoins or make Bitcoins but assuming a long term commitment and a 1% house edge that is not a concern.
1) What will stop the site owners from running off with the Bitcoins?
2) What will stop the site from getting hacked or depositing Bitcoins in a site\server that gets hacked.
3) What will stop a government from shutting down the website and seizing all assets as it is a (presumably) unregulated gambling site?
4) Are there any other reliable, trustworthy gambling sites (pref not another dice site) out there that let you make money from the bank and have enough customers to make it a real proposition? I have seen Ice-Dice and bitcoinsports.eu but my gut instict has suggested I should not invest in either.

I am not saying 1 & 2 are likely (Doog seems like a really great guy on the forums, I made a gut investment and whilst I trust my gut I did loose Bitcoins when Bitmarket.eu went down) but... the history of Bitcoin investments and online wallets suggests that for ever 1 legit investment there are 3 to 5 that disappear owing Bitcoins, possibly after partially refunding, possibly after no refunds at all.

[meta.p02]

Rookie question that is probably one of the stupidest of the day.

I am a current investor in the bank, I would love to invest more but there I am scared to increase my investment.

Simply put: What makes Just-Dice a safe place to store Bitcoins?

More possibly unnecessary details:
I understand as the bank, the risk I can loose Bitcoins or make Bitcoins but assuming a long term commitment and a 1% house edge that is not a concern.
1) What will stop the site owners from running off with the Bitcoins?
2) What will stop the site from getting hacked or depositing Bitcoins in a site\server that gets hacked.
3) What will stop a government from shutting down the website and seizing all assets as it is a (presumably) unregulated gambling site?
4) Are there any other reliable, trustworthy gambling sites (pref not another dice site) out there that let you make money from the bank and have enough customers to make it a real proposition? I have seen Ice-Dice and bitcoinsports.eu but my gut instict has suggested I should not invest in either.

I am not saying 1 & 2 are likely (Doog seems like a really great guy on the forums, I made a gut investment and whilst I trust my gut I did loose Bitcoins when Bitmarket.eu went down) but... the history of Bitcoin investments and online wallets suggests that for ever 1 legit investment there are 3 to 5 that disappear owing Bitcoins, possibly after partially refunding, possibly after no refunds at all.

1) Nothing.
2) Nothing.
3) Nothing.
4) I don't know. Check out the "Securities" and "Gambling" boards for more info.

[dooglus]

1) What will stop the site owners from running off with the Bitcoins?

Mostly common decency and fear of being caught.  I'm not a thief, and I don't want to live in fear of retribution.

2) What will stop the site from getting hacked or depositing Bitcoins in a site\server that gets hacked.

It's possible the site will be hacked.  I don't think it's possible to be 100% secure ever.  Most coins are stored offline in cold storage.  I never deposit investor funds with third parties unless I hold a deposit from that third party that more than covers the risked amount.  A case in point is inputs.io.  We accepted instant deposits using inputs.io, but that meant that inputs.io held deposited funds until I could transfer them to my own wallet each day.  To offset that risk I took a 500 BTC deposit from its owner.  When inputs.io lost 42 of our Bitcoins, I took that 42 BTC out of the 500 BTC deposit before returning it.

3) What will stop a government from shutting down the website and seizing all assets as it is a (presumably) unregulated gambling site?

See #2 above.  Whether it's a hacker or a government that tries to steal investor funds, they'll find that the vast majority are safely stored offline.

4) Are there any other reliable, trustworthy gambling sites (pref not another dice site) out there that let you make money from the bank and have enough customers to make it a real proposition? I have seen Ice-Dice and bitcoinsports.eu but my gut instict has suggested I should not invest in either.

I heard about a live roulette site which copied JD's bankroll model, casinobit.net.  Apparently it's possible for early investors to withdraw funds deposited by later investors, so that might be worth a look.  (Just kidding, it was another Bitcoin calamity).  Maybe someone else can answer this one.  I don't know how you're meant to judge the trustworthiness of a site.

[autotoss]

Whether it's a hacker or a government that tries to steal investor funds, they'll find that the vast majority are safely stored offline.

but the government may require to give them bitcoin wallets as bitcoin obtained illegally in their opinion. They will offer you a lenient sentence in return.

[AlexM]

Hi

Thanks for all the replies, I think the responses are good. All issues above aside, $50m + on deposit is enough to guarantee that should something go wrong people would spend a lot of time figuring out exactly who Doog is and where he lives to get lost Bitcoins back. But... that surely means it is also a massive incentive for criminals to find Doog and not leave him until they have $50m+ in Bitcoins. I'm not sure how banks and exchanges deal with this issue. I hope you have good personal security. http://xkcd.com/538/

[itod]

Trying to find this info but no avail: How much on average is a return on 1 BTC for investors per day? Any unit of time (week/month) is OK.

[autotoss]

average is a return on 1 BTC for investors per day?

0.001/day, 0.007/week, 0.03/m

[manoamano]

average is a return on 1 BTC for investors per day?

0.001/day, 0.007/week, 0.03/m

3% monthly is really nice

[bitcoin44me]

Trying to find this info but no avail: How much on average is a return on 1 BTC for investors per day? Any unit of time (week/month) is OK.

You can't get this info.
Past results does not impact future bets.

[autotoss]

You can't get this info.
Past results does not impact future bets.

just-dice have 5000 btc wagered every day. I don't see any reasons why it will get worse in the next month.

guys, Singapore is going to ban online gambling. Anybody can write an article about it, about vpn, why they will not be able to play through the vpn on the traditional casino sites and about just-dice?

[organofcorti]

Trying to find this info but no avail: How much on average is a return on 1 BTC for investors per day? Any unit of time (week/month) is OK.

Some historical results here:

http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/147-investor-returns-at-just-dicecom.html