Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[David Latapie]

People buy accounts that invested and lost to save the 10% cut

I don't understand this 10% cut. Care to explain?

"The site currently charges a 10% commission on net investment profits to cover expenses such as advertising, server hosting, etc. The commission rate is subject to change. Notice will be given in this paragraph 7 clear days before any rate change takes effect.

Commission is charged when profits are divested, or at midnight (UTC) on Sunday each week, whichever happens sooner. Commission is never charged twice on the same profits. For example if you invest 100 BTC and it grows to 110 BTC by the end of the first week, you will be charged 10% of your 10 BTC profit. If your remaining 109 BTC investment then shrinks to 105 BTC over the next week, you will not be charged any commission at the end of that week. And then, if it grows to 119 BTC by the end of the 3rd week, you will only be charged 10% commission on the new 10 BTC of profit over the previous high of 109 BTC. At any point you could divest up to your original investment of 100 BTC without being charged commission since we consider that when divesting you divest the original investment first, and profits later."

Thanks. Kind of a circomvoluted strategy, though.

[Azlan]

Great! I was fearing you were in the gambler's fallacy :-)

May I ask you why you are so interested in the busting probability of funny martingales?

You can ask, but I don't know what to tell you.

I'm interested in mathematics, and this seems like it should have a neat solution.

I don't know that you can call it a "martingale" by the way, since it doesn't reset on a win.

If you are interested in martingale / gamblers fallacy / hothand (as I am) Its worth looking at the Fibonacci variants of Martingale. I havnt read all 216 pages of this thread but I did do a search for the term Fibonacci and nothing came up. For example:
Start with the Fibonacci series: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21 .... starting with 1:

a) Place 50/50 bet
b) If win, increase 1 step
c) If lose, go back 2 steps

The psychology is that you lose only 1 unit 50% of the time, but the other 50% of the time the sky is the limit! So the "bust" in this case is not losing your pot in a streak of bad luck, but rather, having a streak of good luck and hitting the just/dice limit.

From an entertainment point of view, i believe you can play fibonacci much longer then classic Martingale (assuming 1 unit as the initial bet). I dont think it changes the houses expected value, aside from possibly increasing the propensity for he user to play again through positive reinforcement.

 Just a few years ago a psychologist (Daniel Kahaneman) won the nobel prize in economics for related work in behavioral economics. ANyhow.... great discussion, and I think the math behind the JD website is very very cool!

(Fibonacci caveat - Strictly speaking, you want to start with 1 unit, then multiply repeatedly by Phi [~1.68=sqrt(5)+1)/2] which quickly converges to the more popular integer series. Phi is one of those cool constants related to DaVinci, Pi, pythagoras and that 3x3 grid on your iphone camara. )

[boumalo]

Great! I was fearing you were in the gambler's fallacy :-)

May I ask you why you are so interested in the busting probability of funny martingales?

You can ask, but I don't know what to tell you.

I'm interested in mathematics, and this seems like it should have a neat solution.

I don't know that you can call it a "martingale" by the way, since it doesn't reset on a win.

If you are interested in martingale / gamblers fallacy / hothand (as I am) Its worth looking at the Fibonacci variants of Martingale. I havnt read all 216 pages of this thread but I did do a search for the term Fibonacci and nothing came up. For example:
Start with the Fibonacci series: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21 .... starting with 1:

a) Place 50/50 bet
b) If win, increase 1 step
c) If lose, go back 2 steps

The psychology is that you lose only 1 unit 50% of the time, but the other 50% of the time the sky is the limit! So the "bust" in this case is not losing your pot in a streak of bad luck, but rather, having a streak of good luck and hitting the just/dice limit.

From an entertainment point of view, i believe you can play fibonacci much longer then classic Martingale (assuming 1 unit as the initial bet). I dont think it changes the houses expected value, aside from possibly increasing the propensity for he user to play again through positive reinforcement.

 Just a few years ago a psychologist (Daniel Kahaneman) won the nobel prize in economics for related work in behavioral economics. ANyhow.... great discussion, and I think the math behind the JD website is very very cool!

(Fibonacci caveat - Strictly speaking, you want to start with 1 unit, then multiply repeatedly by Phi [~1.68=sqrt(5)+1)/2] which quickly converges to the more popular integer series. Phi is one of those cool constants related to DaVinci, Pi, pythagoras and that 3x3 grid on your iphone camara. )

It is interesting to get the most excitement and fun out of your betting experience but it doesn't change the house edge

You should bet as you like and come up with your own fun way to do so since the goal should be to get entertained

[ovdsm]

i believe, all have notice a decline in amount wagered at JD. FAQ claims, that part of the 10% commission is used for marketing, to attract new players. what is being done in particular?

more, what has interested for a while - what is the consumer behavior at JD:
- can decline in BTC price be linked to decline in amounts wagered? like, more people are divesting from BTC = less potential players; (this can be seen today)
- or is it the other way around - cheaper BTC price encourages to take risk betting?
- do players with smaller balances likely lose more of their balance or all of it in comparison with players with bigger balances (guess, only dooglus could have ane idea of this).

o.

[bitfromit]

i believe, all have notice a decline in amount wagered at JD. FAQ claims, that part of the 10% commission is used for marketing, to attract new players. what is being done in particular?

more, what has interested for a while - what is the consumer behavior at JD:
- can decline in BTC price be linked to decline in amounts wagered? like, more people are divesting from BTC = less potential players; (this can be seen today)
- or is it the other way around - cheaper BTC price encourages to take risk betting?
- do players with smaller balances likely lose more of their balance or all of it in comparison with players with bigger balances (guess, only dooglus could have ane idea of this).

o.

I've been wondering about this for ages but can't find any discernible patterns. Of course chances are if you think you see a pattern it is really only in your mind 'cos we are forever finding patterns where there are none.

As of the moment it looks like Doge-dice has been getting more action for some reason.

[boumalo]

i believe, all have notice a decline in amount wagered at JD. FAQ claims, that part of the 10% commission is used for marketing, to attract new players. what is being done in particular?

more, what has interested for a while - what is the consumer behavior at JD:
- can decline in BTC price be linked to decline in amounts wagered? like, more people are divesting from BTC = less potential players; (this can be seen today)
- or is it the other way around - cheaper BTC price encourages to take risk betting?
- do players with smaller balances likely lose more of their balance or all of it in comparison with players with bigger balances (guess, only dooglus could have ane idea of this).

o.

I would think that cheaper BTC means more BTC wagered but cheaper BTC may mean negative news about Bitcoin so people are less involved and there are less new comers

After the spike up in price in November people divested, I think the number of players keep growing but the amount wagered didn't grow (to be verified)

[boumalo]

1.  There is no need to advertise - People who own BTC know of JD - Let the new btc holders find it, they will
2.  You want more play at JD - Kill off DogeDice - killing off DogeDice helps lower the price and demand for the DogeShitCoin because 2 Billion of the 75 Billion minted coins are there.  Play will increase at JD.  (Maybe not whale play yet)
3.  Absolutely USD price average influences BTC wagered, also right now we are in a a holding pattern and most Bitcoiners are awaiting on the coming jump in price in next few months that could give us a new ATH of $3,600 a coin, therefore people are not gambling there BTC as much right now.


If you want to see the real numbers of JD chart USD wagered from day 1 with BTC price (noting Nakowa's few big days)

You forgot the link, I think you were referring to this page https://just-dice.com/wagered.txt

There is graphs in the blog as well

If the price goes up, bitcoiners are more wealthy so they may indulge themselves in spending some of their wealth so the USD wagered will increase of JD

[SebastianJu]

dooglus... cant you change just-dice so that its possible to create... lets say 10 new deposit addresses each month or week? That way it cant really be misused but it wouldnt be so easily possible to determine the riches one has. I mean it seems to be relatively easy to find out what a jd-address is. And when you know... through a transaction... that a jd-address belongs to a certain user you can now relatively good observe his jd-investments... or even more when transactions involving that address happen. I think such static addresses arent really good.

And another question... is there somewhere a list with all 1.1billion bets and their results available?

[Dabs]

New address per deposit was actually a good implementation. Then people need to stop using old addresses too. Then everything eventually ends up in either the hot wallet or cold storage, so it's all mixed.

[BayAreaCoins]

1.  There is no need to advertise - People who own BTC know of JD - Let the new btc holders find it, they will
2.  You want more play at JD - Kill off DogeDice - killing off DogeDice helps lower the price and demand for the DogeShitCoin because 2 Billion of the 75 Billion minted coins are there.  Play will increase at JD.  (Maybe not whale play yet)
3.  Absolutely USD price average influences BTC wagered, also right now we are in a a holding pattern and most Bitcoiners are awaiting on the coming jump in price in next few months that could give us a new ATH of $3,600 a coin, therefore people are not gambling there BTC as much right now.


If you want to see the real numbers of JD chart USD wagered from day 1 with BTC price (noting Nakowa's few big days)

1.  Very few coin holders know of JD. Believe it or not.  It will stay this way or agressive marketing should be explored.  Dooglus always came off to me as the type of guy who wanted to help Bitcoin as a whole and this seems like a golden and provable fair way to push bitcoin as a good thing.  I've approached Doog in chat about possibly splitting a billboard within a state that allows online gaming to advertise that way and he respectfully shot me down.
2.  Doge-dice has nothing to do with JD play. DD takes a load off JD that doesn't need to be at JD.  It is perfect. Stop being butthurt, it isn't going anywhere. I expect that casino to be more profitable because there is no way these DOGE prices can remain. When the price goes down people will gamble. I'd bet it gets to 3-5% profit.
3. Fuck ya USD price influences the Bitcoin bet in the average gambler.  People will start gambling more when the price continues to down trend and when BTC milestones aren't met and people expect each coin @ $3,600 and it is floating $100-200 a coin.... They are going to gamble!

Just a matter of directing them to the right place. (them being future players)

[nrd525]

I think people are more likely to gamble when the price is going up.  Wealth effect.  More money means more disposable income.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

I think doge-dice has a non-negligible cannibalizing effect on just-dice.

DD takes a load off JD that doesn't need to be at JD.

You are correct on the first assertion, but not the second. Even if people are just betting small amounts, they can become inclined to bet more (because they feel like they're on a lucky streak, because they've learned more about the site and want to try with bigger amounts, etc), and there's a certain inertia towards switching from dd to jd.

I very much doubt that DD is positive for JD investors.

[AaronBreillat]

I think doge-dice has a non-negligible cannibalizing effect on just-dice.

DD takes a load off JD that doesn't need to be at JD.

You are correct on the first assertion, but not the second. Even if people are just betting small amounts, they can become inclined to bet more (because they feel like they're on a lucky streak, because they've learned more about the site and want to try with bigger amounts, etc), and there's a certain inertia towards switching from dd to jd.

I very much doubt that DD is positive for JD investors.

Why the hell are you still posting here?

[BayAreaCoins]

I think doge-dice has a non-negligible cannibalizing effect on just-dice.

DD takes a load off JD that doesn't need to be at JD.

You are correct on the first assertion, but not the second. Even if people are just betting small amounts, they can become inclined to bet more (because they feel like they're on a lucky streak, because they've learned more about the site and want to try with bigger amounts, etc), and there's a certain inertia towards switching from dd to jd.

I very much doubt that DD is positive for JD investors.

Why the hell are you still posting here?

He may post wherever he may please. I don't mind TF.

The load I was talking about wasn't so much about small bets.  It was more the chat load that was running off whales and others.  It was totally out of hand for a little while (similar to the South Park episode with change.)  Doge-dice absorbed most, if not all of this.

I see Doge-dice as a wonderful way for noobs to get a taste of digital currency and a taste of Just-dice as well.  I just find it hard to think that it hurts JD... I would argue that it helps.

[boumalo]

I think people are more likely to gamble when the price is going up.  Wealth effect.  More money means more disposable income.

Yes but people who are regular gamblers and lose all their stash then buy bitcoins will play a constant amount of fiat because their revenues are in fiat so they will play less bitcoins when the price goes up

[theskillzdatklls]

Anyone that thinks doge dice hurts just dice is absolutely retarded. Just invest in doge dice then instead of being stubborn.

[qxzn]

Anyone that thinks doge dice hurts just dice is absolutely retarded. Just invest in doge dice then instead of being stubborn.

"Investing" in doge-dice is like picking pennies up in front of a steamroller, IMO. Holding doge looks seriously risky at the moment.

[Lohoris]

"Investing" in doge-dice is like picking pennies up in front of a steamroller, IMO. Holding doge looks seriously risky at the moment.

Then it is no different from just holding doge anyway.
Either sell them, or if you keep them you could as well invest them.
(this is only true since it can be divested at a moment's notice, usually)

[qxzn]

"Investing" in doge-dice is like picking pennies up in front of a steamroller, IMO. Holding doge looks seriously risky at the moment.

Then it is no different from just holding doge anyway.

My point exactly.

[galbros]

"Investing" in doge-dice is like picking pennies up in front of a steamroller, IMO. Holding doge looks seriously risky at the moment.

Then it is no different from just holding doge anyway.
Either sell them, or if you keep them you could as well invest them.
(this is only true since it can be divested at a moment's notice, usually)

With Too Many Coins (TM) and no hard limit, doge is very dependent on more and more acceptance to keep its value.  However, if you are going to hold doge DD is a great place to keep them.  The positive EV of investing helps offset the risk of price declines.

Like BTC Doge is down to less than half of it's peak value.  But also like BTC, doge is worth more today than when doge dice started.

The two sites are complementary.  DD has a very different vibe than JD, especially in the chat, but I don't see it really cannibalizing JD.

Good Luck!