Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[dooglus]

Great job this week guys.  Your coins worked hard for us and somehow managed to retain over 5% of the amount wagered!

Jun  9 2014     2.06%   142.75%

Can you please clarify this? You said there was a 5% retention (ie. house edge) but the profit was only 2.06%?

Sorry if that was confusing.  Over the week, the amount wagered was 17754.48434936 BTC and the profit from that was 962.1460573 BTC.  That profit is 5.419% of the amount wagered.

Through the week, the size of the bankroll was around 46k BTC.

If you were contributing to the site's bankroll for the whole week, your contribution will have grown by 2.06%.

The 962 BTC profit is roughly 2% of the 46k BTC bankroll.

Note that I did write I was listing "the 10 most recent weekly returns" - return as in the percentage growth experienced by anyone contributing to the bankroll that week.

So there are two different numbers:

* 5% : the effective house edge (profit as a percentage of amount wagered),
* 2% : the return to investors (profit as a percentage of the bankroll).

[dooglus]

Any plans for a LTC dice site?

LTC?  Ew, no!

Again, how can 5% (5 BTC) possibly be equal to 2.06% (2.06 BTC) when we're talking about the same thing (profit) over the same time period (a week) when both are using the same variable (wagered amount)? How much is in the investment pool is irrelevant to any of this discussion.

Profit as a percentage of the total wagered is different that profit as a percentage of the bankroll.  Both are interesting numbers.  The first tells us how well we performed relative to the 1% house edge.  The second tells us how much our contribution to the bankroll grew this week.

Suppose only 1 person bet all week, and they bet just a single satoshi, and that they lost their bet.
The profit for the week would be 100% of the amount wagered, but only very slightly over 0% of the bankroll.

We will have performed 100 times better than expected, but nobody will have made much of a profit at all.

They're two different numbers which gives you two different denominators when calculating the percents.

Exactly this.

[boumalo]

Great job this week guys.  Your coins worked hard for us and somehow managed to retain over 5% of the amount wagered!

Jun  9 2014     2.06%   142.75%

Can you please clarify this? You said there was a 5% retention (ie. house edge) but the profit was only 2.06%?

Sorry if that was confusing.  Over the week, the amount wagered was 17754.48434936 BTC and the profit from that was 962.1460573 BTC.  That profit is 5.419% of the amount wagered.

Through the week, the size of the bankroll was around 46k BTC.

If you were contributing to the site's bankroll for the whole week, your contribution will have grown by 2.06%.

The 962 BTC profit is roughly 2% of the 46k BTC bankroll.

Note that I did write I was listing "the 10 most recent weekly returns" - return as in the percentage growth experienced by anyone contributing to the bankroll that week.

So there are two different numbers:

* 5% : the effective house edge (profit as a percentage of amount wagered),
* 2% : the return to investors (profit as a percentage of the bankroll).

It is very clear, it was a great week for investors

On the last 14 days 2190BTC were wagered everyday in average so an expected profit of 21.9BTC/day or 657BTC/month => 1.4%/month or 18%/year with the compounded interests

[dooglus]

For a complete picture you should also post the bet(s) that made us rich (or poor)

Someone must have lost big time to create that jump on the chart.

The majority (~560 BTC) came from a player calling themselves 'theymos'.  Not our one, just someone using his name.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27hk9o/someone_calling_themselves_theymos_is_gambling/

[suchmoon]

For a complete picture you should also post the bet(s) that made us rich (or poor)

Someone must have lost big time to create that jump on the chart.

The majority (~560 BTC) came from a player calling themselves 'theymos'.  Not our one, just someone using his name.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27hk9o/someone_calling_themselves_theymos_is_gambling/

Of course he would say that wouldn't he

I'm still waiting for Karpeles to show up on JD...

[TwinWinNerD]

Any plans for a LTC dice site?

LTC?  Ew, no!

What about NXT? It is picking up speed fast! Might be intresting?

[romerun]

More interesting question is why doge? Because of much fun, Or it sounds much like doog?

[HowGudAmI]

Any plans for a LTC dice site?

LTC?  Ew, no!

Just to add my 0.02, I would invest in LTC dice, at the moment my LTC is just sitting dormant.

[ranlo]

Any plans for a LTC dice site?

LTC?  Ew, no!

Again, how can 5% (5 BTC) possibly be equal to 2.06% (2.06 BTC) when we're talking about the same thing (profit) over the same time period (a week) when both are using the same variable (wagered amount)? How much is in the investment pool is irrelevant to any of this discussion.

Profit as a percentage of the total wagered is different that profit as a percentage of the bankroll.  Both are interesting numbers.  The first tells us how well we performed relative to the 1% house edge.  The second tells us how much our contribution to the bankroll grew this week.

Suppose only 1 person bet all week, and they bet just a single satoshi, and that they lost their bet.
The profit for the week would be 100% of the amount wagered, but only very slightly over 0% of the bankroll.

We will have performed 100 times better than expected, but nobody will have made much of a profit at all.

They're two different numbers which gives you two different denominators when calculating the percents.

Exactly this.

Thanks for clarifying. Apparently I was somehow missing the link between the two (in that the first was x/wagered and x/invested). Looking through it a few times I finally caught on, in that 50% of 100 BTC would be a 50 BTC increase, but if there were 500 BTC invested it'd only be a 10% increase in holdings.

Sorry about that, everyone. For whatever reason this concept wasn't clicking well. I think the way I was interpreting it was:

*Bankroll has 100 BTC
*100 BTC is invested
*50% edge = 50 BTC = 50% profit
*50 BTC/100 BTC is 50% profit

It works in that scenario, but wouldn't if there were, say 100 BTC wagered but 500 invested. This is what lost me I think (as I generally try to minimize things for ease, and the scenario I used kept resulting in the same thing).

[JoTheKhan]

Don't worry. I forgive you

[boumalo]

Any plans for a LTC dice site?

LTC?  Ew, no!

Just to add my 0.02, I would invest in LTC dice, at the moment my LTC is just sitting dormant.

A lot of us would

Doge has a huge community but LTC has a big one as well

[ranlo]

Don't worry. I forgive you

XD. Thanks!

Also, @Dooglus -- about the LTC, I'd throw my coins into that as well. I currently just have my LTC sitting around anyways.

[superbit]

Don't worry. I forgive you

XD. Thanks!

Also, @Dooglus -- about the LTC, I'd throw my coins into that as well. I currently just have my LTC sitting around anyways.

If Dooglus isn't interested in doing it maybe he would be interested in selling the code so someone else can.  Of course it wouldn't have Doog's reputation behind it but others on this forum do.  I think Darkcoin has a decent following too that people would be happy to gamble away.

[ranlo]

Don't worry. I forgive you

XD. Thanks!

Also, @Dooglus -- about the LTC, I'd throw my coins into that as well. I currently just have my LTC sitting around anyways.

If Dooglus isn't interested in doing it maybe he would be interested in selling the code so someone else can.  Of course it wouldn't have Doog's reputation behind it but others on this forum do.  I think Darkcoin has a decent following too that people would be happy to gamble away.

It's an interesting idea. A couple of us have asked in the past but didn't get a response on it.

I've actually got many ideas on how to spruce it up even more.

[HowGudAmI]

Don't worry. I forgive you

XD. Thanks!

Also, @Dooglus -- about the LTC, I'd throw my coins into that as well. I currently just have my LTC sitting around anyways.

If Dooglus isn't interested in doing it maybe he would be interested in selling the code so someone else can.  Of course it wouldn't have Doog's reputation behind it but others on this forum do.  I think Darkcoin has a decent following too that people would be happy to gamble away.

It's an interesting idea. A couple of us have asked in the past but didn't get a response on it.

I've actually got many ideas on how to spruce it up even more.

Well I would be interested in supporting an LTC dice from the outset if it was trustworthy. I would actually consider running such a site, but alas, I doubt I would get enough trust from the community.

If dooglus isn't interested, but some other trusted member is taking a stab at it, PM me and I will see if I can help with anything.

EDIT: Anyone know who runs dicenow.com ? Just found it on google.

[8fold]

[...]
EDIT: Anyone know who runs dicenow.com ? Just found it on google.

Yes, a chinese guy. I've spoken with him several times in the past, as I had been an investor there. But he didn't have time or energy to further improve the site. They also have a thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=314252.msg3369111#msg3369111

[001sonkit]

[...]
EDIT: Anyone know who runs dicenow.com ? Just found it on google.

Yes, a chinese guy. I've spoken with him several times in the past, as I had been an investor there. But he didn't have time or energy to further improve the site. They also have a thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=314252.msg3369111#msg3369111

Dicenow guy is a Taiwanese. He doesnt really speaks chinese (and i translated the site for him).
PS: I invested some in his site with 10x leverage, seems good return so far

[boumalo]

[...]
EDIT: Anyone know who runs dicenow.com ? Just found it on google.

Yes, a chinese guy. I've spoken with him several times in the past, as I had been an investor there. But he didn't have time or energy to further improve the site. They also have a thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=314252.msg3369111#msg3369111

Dicenow guy is a Taiwanese. He doesnt really speaks chinese (and i translated the site for him).
PS: I invested some in his site with 10x leverage, seems good return so far

What return did you get?

There was not much volume in the first few months

[001sonkit]

PS: risk = edge * Kelly( aka leverage)
multiple edge explanation please visit https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=314252.msg7227581#msg7227581 and scroll up.

Here is what you need




Reinvest amount are calculated as new investment

Again, short term profit != long term performance. Do the math before investing

[boumalo]

PS: risk = edge * Kelly( aka leverage)
multiple edge explanation please visit https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=314252.msg7227581#msg7227581 and scroll up.

Here is what you need




Reinvest amount are calculated as new investment

Again, short term profit != long term performance. Do the math before investing

45% in 3months! WOW!

At this unsustainable rate you would get x153 on your money in 3years or 15,300%