dooglus (OP)
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Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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June 30, 2014, 03:39:44 PM |
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26 2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit: 209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685 5247.70837774 27 2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2% hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal: 0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457 Notice the "n:" values - that's the nonce. He made a lot of "dust" bets between the big ones. Is the "nonce" just a running total of each person's bets? In that if one is n:15 and the next is n:18, 2 bets were made in between there (#16 and 17)? Yes. Between the two bets shown above, n=685 and n=748, there were around 60 small bets: 2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.1170231 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:96031 profit:209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685 fuckit tot:5247.70837774 2013-10-04 07:19:59 #152094083: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:680800 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894516 n:686 fuckit tot:5247.70838059 2013-10-04 07:20:01 #152094140: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:785708 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894801 n:687 fuckit tot:5247.70838344 2013-10-04 07:20:02 #152094172: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:986747 profit:-0.00010000 bal:7016.28884801 n:688 fuckit tot:5247.70828344 2013-10-04 07:20:04 #152094238: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:40071 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28885086 n:689 fuckit tot:5247.70828629 2013-10-04 07:20:07 #152094334: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:957128 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28885371 n:690 fuckit tot:5247.70828914 2013-10-04 07:20:09 #152094400: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:198492 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28885656 n:691 fuckit tot:5247.70829199 2013-10-04 07:20:11 #152094454: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:14431 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28885941 n:692 fuckit tot:5247.70829484 2013-10-04 07:20:20 #152094485: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:81479 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28886226 n:693 fuckit tot:5247.70829769 2013-10-04 07:20:22 #152094533: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:103316 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28886511 n:694 fuckit tot:5247.70830054 2013-10-04 07:20:32 #152094581: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:400645 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28886796 n:695 fuckit tot:5247.70830339 2013-10-04 07:20:34 #152094632: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:407036 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28887081 n:696 fuckit tot:5247.70830624 2013-10-04 07:20:35 #152094664: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:329031 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28887366 n:697 fuckit tot:5247.70830909 2013-10-04 07:20:36 #152094696: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:608122 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28887651 n:698 fuckit tot:5247.70831194 2013-10-04 07:20:38 #152094724: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:90824 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28887936 n:699 fuckit tot:5247.70831479 2013-10-04 07:20:39 #152094757: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:269836 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28888221 n:700 fuckit tot:5247.70831764 2013-10-04 07:20:40 #152094782: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:45195 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28888506 n:701 fuckit tot:5247.70832049 2013-10-04 07:20:41 #152094805: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:520595 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28888791 n:702 fuckit tot:5247.70832334 2013-10-04 07:20:42 #152094840: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:891094 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28889076 n:703 fuckit tot:5247.70832619 2013-10-04 07:20:43 #152094867: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:739502 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28889361 n:704 fuckit tot:5247.70832904 2013-10-04 07:20:44 #152094899: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:946173 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28889646 n:705 fuckit tot:5247.70833189 2013-10-04 07:20:46 #152094946: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:712490 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28889931 n:706 fuckit tot:5247.70833474 2013-10-04 07:20:47 #152094974: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:162547 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28890216 n:707 fuckit tot:5247.70833759 2013-10-04 07:20:48 #152095003: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:385658 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28890501 n:708 fuckit tot:5247.70834044 2013-10-04 07:20:49 #152095042: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:735072 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28890786 n:709 fuckit tot:5247.70834329 2013-10-04 07:20:50 #152095068: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:887858 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28891071 n:710 fuckit tot:5247.70834614 2013-10-04 07:20:51 #152095095: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:420160 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28891356 n:711 fuckit tot:5247.70834899 2013-10-04 07:20:53 #152095132: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:128541 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28891641 n:712 fuckit tot:5247.70835184 2013-10-04 07:20:54 #152095163: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:615113 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28891926 n:713 fuckit tot:5247.70835469 2013-10-04 07:20:55 #152095213: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:491059 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28892211 n:714 fuckit tot:5247.70835754 2013-10-04 07:20:57 #152095247: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:853903 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28892496 n:715 fuckit tot:5247.70836039 2013-10-04 07:20:58 #152095279: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:148917 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28892781 n:716 fuckit tot:5247.70836324 2013-10-04 07:20:59 #152095307: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:136817 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28893066 n:717 fuckit tot:5247.70836609 2013-10-04 07:21:00 #152095334: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:658350 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28893351 n:718 fuckit tot:5247.70836894 2013-10-04 07:21:01 #152095364: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:615994 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28893636 n:719 fuckit tot:5247.70837179 2013-10-04 07:21:02 #152095398: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:874716 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28893921 n:720 fuckit tot:5247.70837464 2013-10-04 07:21:03 #152095439: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:84760 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894206 n:721 fuckit tot:5247.70837749 2013-10-04 07:21:05 #152095472: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:92157 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894491 n:722 fuckit tot:5247.70838034 2013-10-04 07:21:06 #152095503: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:88338 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894776 n:723 fuckit tot:5247.70838319 2013-10-04 07:21:07 #152095536: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:55437 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28895061 n:724 fuckit tot:5247.70838604 2013-10-04 07:21:09 #152095590: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:602183 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28895346 n:725 fuckit tot:5247.70838889 2013-10-04 07:21:11 #152095644: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:568998 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28895631 n:726 fuckit tot:5247.70839174 2013-10-04 07:21:12 #152095666: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:20477 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28895916 n:727 fuckit tot:5247.70839459 2013-10-04 07:21:15 #152095757: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:205643 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28896201 n:728 fuckit tot:5247.70839744 2013-10-04 07:21:16 #152095788: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:580748 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28896486 n:729 fuckit tot:5247.70840029 2013-10-04 07:21:18 #152095837: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:452110 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28896771 n:730 fuckit tot:5247.70840314 2013-10-04 07:21:19 #152095871: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:892427 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28897056 n:731 fuckit tot:5247.70840599 2013-10-04 07:21:21 #152095916: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:756383 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28897341 n:732 fuckit tot:5247.70840884 2013-10-04 07:21:23 #152095961: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:450480 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28897626 n:733 fuckit tot:5247.70841169 2013-10-04 07:21:24 #152095985: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:755319 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28897911 n:734 fuckit tot:5247.70841454 2013-10-04 07:21:24 #152096011: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:759980 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28898196 n:735 fuckit tot:5247.70841739 2013-10-04 07:21:25 #152096033: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:461326 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28898481 n:736 fuckit tot:5247.70842024 2013-10-04 07:21:26 #152096073: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:391741 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28898766 n:737 fuckit tot:5247.70842309 2013-10-04 07:21:27 #152096105: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:379968 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28899051 n:738 fuckit tot:5247.70842594 2013-10-04 07:21:28 #152096131: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:650507 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28899336 n:739 fuckit tot:5247.70842879 2013-10-04 07:21:29 #152096162: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:960241 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28899621 n:740 fuckit tot:5247.70843164 2013-10-04 07:21:30 #152096197: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:46578 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28899906 n:741 fuckit tot:5247.70843449 2013-10-04 07:21:31 #152096224: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:41173 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28900191 n:742 fuckit tot:5247.70843734 2013-10-04 07:21:32 #152096253: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:353702 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28900476 n:743 fuckit tot:5247.70844019 2013-10-04 07:21:34 #152096305: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:377849 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28900761 n:744 fuckit tot:5247.70844304 2013-10-04 07:21:35 #152096347: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:60108 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28901046 n:745 fuckit tot:5247.70844589 2013-10-04 07:21:36 #152096391: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:941745 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28901331 n:746 fuckit tot:5247.70844874 2013-10-04 07:21:38 #152096427: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:977979 profit:-0.00010000 bal:7016.28891331 n:747 fuckit tot:5247.70834874 2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2% hi: lucky:35475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:0.00000000 n:748 fuckit tot:-1768.58056457 Note that the last roll before the big losing one rolled a very high number, 97.7 - I guess he was "pre-rolling". That's where you make small bets until the right number comes out, then make a real bet safe in the knowledge that you already threw away your bad numbers. Or something like that. It doesn't work, clearly.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus (OP)
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June 30, 2014, 03:42:12 PM |
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One of the best things about JD is that their is no person who will kick you out when you win too much.
Except the max bet gets changed if you win too much That actually works in your favour. You won a bunch and then the casino reduces the max bet so you can't lose it all back too quickly... Also, it only happened once - the maximum player profit per roll was reduced from 1% of the total bankroll to 0.5% (via 0.25% for a couple of days) when it became clear that 1% was too high.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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PacoMartin
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Activity: 70
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June 30, 2014, 08:22:15 PM |
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Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all. It's the dark side of the gambler's fallacy. Some people think they are 'due' and if it doesn't happen they think someone is to blame. In general you can never eliminate the variance completely unless you turn it into a carnival game. Perhaps if you do it again you can raise the house edge and reward the investors who stay in for the long haul and don't run when there is a big downturn. With a bigger HE there is also less variance. But if you can't kick yourself for not having a 2% HE, as the threat never goes away. Look at Blackjack. I know that if you use basic strategy you can get under 1% house edge with most games, but many people don't use basic strategy. But more importantly people don't play their bankroll through one time, they gamble repeatedly with their winnings. Nevada statewide made 11.87% of the money put down on it's 2,703 blackjack tables winning $1.084 billion in the last 12 months. But even with that kind of advantage, you still have whales that turn individual casinos upside down once in a while.
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Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Shakespeare
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boumalo
Legendary
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Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
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June 30, 2014, 09:05:47 PM |
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Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all. It's the dark side of the gambler's fallacy. Some people think they are 'due' and if it doesn't happen they think someone is to blame. In general you can never eliminate the variance completely unless you turn it into a carnival game. Perhaps if you do it again you can raise the house edge and reward the investors who stay in for the long haul and don't run when there is a big downturn. With a bigger HE there is also less variance. But if you can't kick yourself for not having a 2% HE, as the threat never goes away. Look at Blackjack. I know that if you use basic strategy you can get under 1% house edge with most games, but many people don't use basic strategy. But more importantly people don't play their bankroll through one time, they gamble repeatedly with their winnings. Nevada statewide made 11.87% of the money put down on it's 2,703 blackjack tables winning $1.084 billion in the last 12 months. But even with that kind of advantage, you still have whales that turn individual casinos upside down once in a while. You can eliminate variance; in some states the state owned lottery redistribute 20-40% of the sums played for scratch tickets and there is a fixed number of winning tickets : for exemple one small win per 30 tickets and one big win per 300tickets
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infested999
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June 30, 2014, 09:29:56 PM |
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Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all. It's the dark side of the gambler's fallacy. Some people think they are 'due' and if it doesn't happen they think someone is to blame. In general you can never eliminate the variance completely unless you turn it into a carnival game. Perhaps if you do it again you can raise the house edge and reward the investors who stay in for the long haul and don't run when there is a big downturn. With a bigger HE there is also less variance. But if you can't kick yourself for not having a 2% HE, as the threat never goes away. Look at Blackjack. I know that if you use basic strategy you can get under 1% house edge with most games, but many people don't use basic strategy. But more importantly people don't play their bankroll through one time, they gamble repeatedly with their winnings. Nevada statewide made 11.87% of the money put down on it's 2,703 blackjack tables winning $1.084 billion in the last 12 months. But even with that kind of advantage, you still have whales that turn individual casinos upside down once in a while. You can eliminate variance; in some states the state owned lottery redistribute 20-40% of the sums played for scratch tickets and there is a fixed number of winning tickets : for exemple one small win per 30 tickets and one big win per 300tickets Many game that depend on RNG remove the "randomness" from it. For example in DotA games (LoL or DotA 2) if you have a spell that has a 50% chance to stun someone, it's not exactly 50%. For example, Slardar's Bash has a 25% probability to Stun the target. On the first attack, however, it will only have an ~8.5% probability to bash; this is its PRD constant C. Each subsequent attack without a bash increases this probability by 8.5%. So on the second attack, the chance is 17%, on the third it is 25.5%, etc. After a bash procs, the probability resets to 8.5% for the next attack. These probabilities average out so that, over a moderate period of time, Bash will proc very nearly 25% of the time.
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savaged
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July 01, 2014, 01:13:35 AM |
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Many game that depend on RNG remove the "randomness" from it. For example in DotA games (LoL or DotA 2) if you have a spell that has a 50% chance to stun someone, it's not exactly 50%. For example, Slardar's Bash has a 25% probability to Stun the target. On the first attack, however, it will only have an ~8.5% probability to bash; this is its PRD constant C. Each subsequent attack without a bash increases this probability by 8.5%. So on the second attack, the chance is 17%, on the third it is 25.5%, etc. After a bash procs, the probability resets to 8.5% for the next attack. These probabilities average out so that, over a moderate period of time, Bash will proc very nearly 25% of the time. That is entirely due to how they decided to implement their system and nothing to do with "RNG". I assume the real reason it's setup that way is because players in a competitive game don't want "luck" involved or at the very least want it's effects to be minimized as much as possible, such as the system you quoted.
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Timetwister
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Activity: 1199
Merit: 1047
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August 15, 2014, 07:57:32 PM |
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Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?
It's really sad that the government has stopped such a brilliant idea.
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ranlo
Legendary
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Activity: 1988
Merit: 1007
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August 15, 2014, 08:43:31 PM |
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Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?
It's really sad that the government has stopped such a brilliant idea.
I'd personally like if we could get information on what's going on. The last things posted were almost two months ago: "Doog and I are working on alternatives for the sites and will keep you posted as to all progress being made." "Doog is going to set the site up as a 'play coin' venue until we have things sorted out. Please come and visit with us there, where we will try to remain active and available for questions and concerns." Haven't heard anything on either of these fronts.
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suchmoon
Legendary
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Activity: 3794
Merit: 9009
https://bpip.org
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August 15, 2014, 10:29:04 PM |
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Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?
It's really sad that the government has stopped such a brilliant idea.
I'd personally like if we could get information on what's going on. The last things posted were almost two months ago: "Doog and I are working on alternatives for the sites and will keep you posted as to all progress being made." "Doog is going to set the site up as a 'play coin' venue until we have things sorted out. Please come and visit with us there, where we will try to remain active and available for questions and concerns." Haven't heard anything on either of these fronts. Dooglus is busy Creating Everything (tm) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.msg8343746#msg8343746tldr: DiceBitco.in seems to be the place where there is some good action going on. It's still early days so proceed with caution.
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theskillzdatklls
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August 15, 2014, 11:23:39 PM |
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Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?
It's really sad that the government has stopped such a brilliant idea.
Stole these words from me
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MilkyLep
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August 16, 2014, 03:25:53 AM |
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Let the guy have the rest and relaxation he earned after a tough dedicated year to JD, investors and gamblers. Doog is always around and (seemingly) always happy to talk and educate. Time will tell if JD reopens, but for now, theres no reason to rush into anything.
I have nothing but the utmost repsect for dooglus as a person and for what he's helped accomplish for bitcoin as a protocol, a currency and a community.
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waterpile
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August 16, 2014, 04:15:36 AM |
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C'mon Dooglus please think of a way to continue your business
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romerun
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Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
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August 16, 2014, 09:00:47 AM |
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Stop investing, keep hoarding might be the best strategy for the next year, doog suggests.
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conspirosphere.tk
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Bitcoin is antisemitic
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August 16, 2014, 11:29:50 AM Last edit: August 16, 2014, 11:58:59 AM by conspirosphere.tk |
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Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?
For the moment I keep my 900K doggiecoins working at: https://www.dogedice.meplus 1.6 btc invested at https://dicebitco.inbut I would feel safer keeping them in doog's hands
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Timetwister
Legendary
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Activity: 1199
Merit: 1047
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August 16, 2014, 11:51:57 AM |
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I'm a bit tired of random unknown people looking for investors, I already had enough with Everydice. I'll read that thread anyway.
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willBTC
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August 17, 2014, 12:10:01 PM |
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why dooglus signature about https://dicebitco.in/ . it's strange...
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Hfleer
Sr. Member
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Activity: 448
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Changing avatars is currently not possible.
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August 17, 2014, 12:12:22 PM |
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Because he participates in their signature promotion plus is an investor in their site?
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AcoinL.L.C
Legendary
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Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
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August 17, 2014, 07:03:59 PM |
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I'm a bit tired of random unknown people looking for investors, I already had enough with Everydice. I'll read that thread anyway. DiceBitco.in has over 3550 BTC in its BR, and they signed a wallet showing they personally own over 200 BTC of it. They also run the largest LTC dice site and have for several months, I would say they are more trust worthy than just about any other active casino site.
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🏰 TradeFortress 🏰
Bitcoin Veteran
VIP
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Activity: 1316
Merit: 1043
👻
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August 18, 2014, 01:22:48 AM |
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DiceBitco.in has over 3550BTC in its BR, and they signed a wallet showing they personally own over 200BTC of it. They also run the largest LTC dice site and have for several months, I would say they are more trust worthy than just about any other active casino site.
No. Trust is not built by holding large amounts of money. Trust is only built by returning large amounts of money. If someone holds 100k BTC for months, would you consider them trustworthy? You shouldn't, because simply holding BTC gives no indication of if they will actually let everyone withdraw when people decide to withdraw. dooglus is so far the only one that is trustworthy.
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Dabs
Legendary
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Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
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August 18, 2014, 03:37:28 PM |
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Send me some money, then I'll return it to you.
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