Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[dooglus]

Code:

26   2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.11702310 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:09.6031 profit:  209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685  5247.70837774
27   2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2%  hi: lucky:03.5475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:   0.00000000 n:748 -1768.58056457

Notice the "n:" values - that's the nonce. He made a lot of "dust" bets between the big ones.

Is the "nonce" just a running total of each person's bets? In that if one is n:15 and the next is n:18, 2 bets were made in between there (#16 and 17)?

Yes.

Between the two bets shown above, n=685 and n=748, there were around 60 small bets:

2013-10-04 05:14:24 #151926184: 6812.1170231 @ 96.04% hi: lucky:96031 profit:209.95278458 bal:7022.06980768 n:685 fuckit tot:5247.70837774
2013-10-04 07:19:59 #152094083: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:680800 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894516 n:686 fuckit tot:5247.70838059
2013-10-04 07:20:01 #152094140: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:785708 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894801 n:687 fuckit tot:5247.70838344
2013-10-04 07:20:02 #152094172: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:986747 profit:-0.00010000 bal:7016.28884801 n:688 fuckit tot:5247.70828344
2013-10-04 07:20:04 #152094238: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:40071 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28885086 n:689 fuckit tot:5247.70828629
2013-10-04 07:20:07 #152094334: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:957128 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28885371 n:690 fuckit tot:5247.70828914
2013-10-04 07:20:09 #152094400: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:198492 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28885656 n:691 fuckit tot:5247.70829199
2013-10-04 07:20:11 #152094454: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:14431 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28885941 n:692 fuckit tot:5247.70829484
2013-10-04 07:20:20 #152094485: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:81479 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28886226 n:693 fuckit tot:5247.70829769
2013-10-04 07:20:22 #152094533: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:103316 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28886511 n:694 fuckit tot:5247.70830054
2013-10-04 07:20:32 #152094581: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:400645 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28886796 n:695 fuckit tot:5247.70830339
2013-10-04 07:20:34 #152094632: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:407036 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28887081 n:696 fuckit tot:5247.70830624
2013-10-04 07:20:35 #152094664: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:329031 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28887366 n:697 fuckit tot:5247.70830909
2013-10-04 07:20:36 #152094696: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:608122 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28887651 n:698 fuckit tot:5247.70831194
2013-10-04 07:20:38 #152094724: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:90824 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28887936 n:699 fuckit tot:5247.70831479
2013-10-04 07:20:39 #152094757: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:269836 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28888221 n:700 fuckit tot:5247.70831764
2013-10-04 07:20:40 #152094782: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:45195 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28888506 n:701 fuckit tot:5247.70832049
2013-10-04 07:20:41 #152094805: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:520595 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28888791 n:702 fuckit tot:5247.70832334
2013-10-04 07:20:42 #152094840: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:891094 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28889076 n:703 fuckit tot:5247.70832619
2013-10-04 07:20:43 #152094867: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:739502 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28889361 n:704 fuckit tot:5247.70832904
2013-10-04 07:20:44 #152094899: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:946173 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28889646 n:705 fuckit tot:5247.70833189
2013-10-04 07:20:46 #152094946: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:712490 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28889931 n:706 fuckit tot:5247.70833474
2013-10-04 07:20:47 #152094974: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:162547 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28890216 n:707 fuckit tot:5247.70833759
2013-10-04 07:20:48 #152095003: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:385658 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28890501 n:708 fuckit tot:5247.70834044
2013-10-04 07:20:49 #152095042: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:735072 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28890786 n:709 fuckit tot:5247.70834329
2013-10-04 07:20:50 #152095068: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:887858 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28891071 n:710 fuckit tot:5247.70834614
2013-10-04 07:20:51 #152095095: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:420160 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28891356 n:711 fuckit tot:5247.70834899
2013-10-04 07:20:53 #152095132: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:128541 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28891641 n:712 fuckit tot:5247.70835184
2013-10-04 07:20:54 #152095163: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:615113 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28891926 n:713 fuckit tot:5247.70835469
2013-10-04 07:20:55 #152095213: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:491059 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28892211 n:714 fuckit tot:5247.70835754
2013-10-04 07:20:57 #152095247: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:853903 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28892496 n:715 fuckit tot:5247.70836039
2013-10-04 07:20:58 #152095279: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:148917 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28892781 n:716 fuckit tot:5247.70836324
2013-10-04 07:20:59 #152095307: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:136817 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28893066 n:717 fuckit tot:5247.70836609
2013-10-04 07:21:00 #152095334: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:658350 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28893351 n:718 fuckit tot:5247.70836894
2013-10-04 07:21:01 #152095364: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:615994 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28893636 n:719 fuckit tot:5247.70837179
2013-10-04 07:21:02 #152095398: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:874716 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28893921 n:720 fuckit tot:5247.70837464
2013-10-04 07:21:03 #152095439: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:84760 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894206 n:721 fuckit tot:5247.70837749
2013-10-04 07:21:05 #152095472: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:92157 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894491 n:722 fuckit tot:5247.70838034
2013-10-04 07:21:06 #152095503: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:88338 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28894776 n:723 fuckit tot:5247.70838319
2013-10-04 07:21:07 #152095536: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:55437 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28895061 n:724 fuckit tot:5247.70838604
2013-10-04 07:21:09 #152095590: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:602183 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28895346 n:725 fuckit tot:5247.70838889
2013-10-04 07:21:11 #152095644: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:568998 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28895631 n:726 fuckit tot:5247.70839174
2013-10-04 07:21:12 #152095666: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:20477 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28895916 n:727 fuckit tot:5247.70839459
2013-10-04 07:21:15 #152095757: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:205643 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28896201 n:728 fuckit tot:5247.70839744
2013-10-04 07:21:16 #152095788: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:580748 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28896486 n:729 fuckit tot:5247.70840029
2013-10-04 07:21:18 #152095837: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:452110 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28896771 n:730 fuckit tot:5247.70840314
2013-10-04 07:21:19 #152095871: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:892427 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28897056 n:731 fuckit tot:5247.70840599
2013-10-04 07:21:21 #152095916: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:756383 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28897341 n:732 fuckit tot:5247.70840884
2013-10-04 07:21:23 #152095961: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:450480 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28897626 n:733 fuckit tot:5247.70841169
2013-10-04 07:21:24 #152095985: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:755319 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28897911 n:734 fuckit tot:5247.70841454
2013-10-04 07:21:24 #152096011: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:759980 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28898196 n:735 fuckit tot:5247.70841739
2013-10-04 07:21:25 #152096033: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:461326 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28898481 n:736 fuckit tot:5247.70842024
2013-10-04 07:21:26 #152096073: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:391741 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28898766 n:737 fuckit tot:5247.70842309
2013-10-04 07:21:27 #152096105: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:379968 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28899051 n:738 fuckit tot:5247.70842594
2013-10-04 07:21:28 #152096131: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:650507 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28899336 n:739 fuckit tot:5247.70842879
2013-10-04 07:21:29 #152096162: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:960241 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28899621 n:740 fuckit tot:5247.70843164
2013-10-04 07:21:30 #152096197: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:46578 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28899906 n:741 fuckit tot:5247.70843449
2013-10-04 07:21:31 #152096224: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:41173 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28900191 n:742 fuckit tot:5247.70843734
2013-10-04 07:21:32 #152096253: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:353702 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28900476 n:743 fuckit tot:5247.70844019
2013-10-04 07:21:34 #152096305: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:377849 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28900761 n:744 fuckit tot:5247.70844304
2013-10-04 07:21:35 #152096347: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:60108 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28901046 n:745 fuckit tot:5247.70844589
2013-10-04 07:21:36 #152096391: 0.0001 @ 96.25% hi: lucky:941745 profit:0.00000285 bal:7016.28901331 n:746 fuckit tot:5247.70844874
2013-10-04 07:21:38 #152096427: 0.0001 @ 96.25% lo: lucky:977979 profit:-0.00010000 bal:7016.28891331 n:747 fuckit tot:5247.70834874
2013-10-04 07:22:09 #152097271: 7016.28891331 @ 96.2% hi: lucky:35475 profit:-7016.28891331 bal:0.00000000 n:748 fuckit tot:-1768.58056457

Note that the last roll before the big losing one rolled a very high number, 97.7 - I guess he was "pre-rolling". That's where you make small bets until the right number comes out, then make a real bet safe in the knowledge that you already threw away your bad numbers. Or something like that. It doesn't work, clearly.

[dooglus]

One of the best things about JD is that their is no person who will kick you out when you win too much.

Except the max bet gets changed if you win too much

That actually works in your favour. You won a bunch and then the casino reduces the max bet so you can't lose it all back too quickly...

Also, it only happened once - the maximum player profit per roll was reduced from 1% of the total bankroll to 0.5% (via 0.25% for a couple of days) when it became clear that 1% was too high.

[PacoMartin]

Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all.

It's the dark side of the gambler's fallacy. Some people think they are 'due' and if it doesn't happen they think someone is to blame.

In general you can never eliminate the variance completely unless you turn it into a carnival game. Perhaps if you do it again you can raise the house edge and reward the investors who stay in for the long haul and don't run when there is a big downturn. With a bigger HE there is also less variance. But if you can't kick yourself for not having a 2% HE, as the threat never goes away.

Look at Blackjack. I know that if you use basic strategy you can get under 1% house edge with most games, but many people don't use basic strategy. But more importantly people don't play their bankroll through one time, they gamble repeatedly with their winnings.

Nevada statewide made 11.87% of the money put down on it's 2,703 blackjack tables winning $1.084 billion in the last 12 months. But even with that kind of advantage, you still have whales that turn individual casinos upside down once in a while.

[boumalo]

Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all.

It's the dark side of the gambler's fallacy. Some people think they are 'due' and if it doesn't happen they think someone is to blame.

In general you can never eliminate the variance completely unless you turn it into a carnival game. Perhaps if you do it again you can raise the house edge and reward the investors who stay in for the long haul and don't run when there is a big downturn. With a bigger HE there is also less variance. But if you can't kick yourself for not having a 2% HE, as the threat never goes away.

Look at Blackjack. I know that if you use basic strategy you can get under 1% house edge with most games, but many people don't use basic strategy. But more importantly people don't play their bankroll through one time, they gamble repeatedly with their winnings.

Nevada statewide made 11.87% of the money put down on it's 2,703 blackjack tables winning $1.084 billion in the last 12 months. But even with that kind of advantage, you still have whales that turn individual casinos upside down once in a while.

You can eliminate variance; in some states the state owned lottery redistribute 20-40% of the sums played for scratch tickets and there is a fixed number of winning tickets : for exemple one small win per 30 tickets and one big win per 300tickets

[infested999]

Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all.

It's the dark side of the gambler's fallacy. Some people think they are 'due' and if it doesn't happen they think someone is to blame.

In general you can never eliminate the variance completely unless you turn it into a carnival game. Perhaps if you do it again you can raise the house edge and reward the investors who stay in for the long haul and don't run when there is a big downturn. With a bigger HE there is also less variance. But if you can't kick yourself for not having a 2% HE, as the threat never goes away.

Look at Blackjack. I know that if you use basic strategy you can get under 1% house edge with most games, but many people don't use basic strategy. But more importantly people don't play their bankroll through one time, they gamble repeatedly with their winnings.

Nevada statewide made 11.87% of the money put down on it's 2,703 blackjack tables winning $1.084 billion in the last 12 months. But even with that kind of advantage, you still have whales that turn individual casinos upside down once in a while.

You can eliminate variance; in some states the state owned lottery redistribute 20-40% of the sums played for scratch tickets and there is a fixed number of winning tickets : for exemple one small win per 30 tickets and one big win per 300tickets

Many game that depend on RNG remove the "randomness" from it. For example in DotA games (LoL or DotA 2) if you have a spell that has a 50% chance to stun someone, it's not exactly 50%.

For example, Slardar's Bash has a 25% probability to Stun the target. On the first attack, however, it will only have an ~8.5% probability to bash; this is its PRD constant C. Each subsequent attack without a bash increases this probability by 8.5%. So on the second attack, the chance is 17%, on the third it is 25.5%, etc. After a bash procs, the probability resets to 8.5% for the next attack. These probabilities average out so that, over a moderate period of time, Bash will proc very nearly 25% of the time.

- DotA 2 Pseudo-random distribution

[savaged]

Many game that depend on RNG remove the "randomness" from it. For example in DotA games (LoL or DotA 2) if you have a spell that has a 50% chance to stun someone, it's not exactly 50%.

For example, Slardar's Bash has a 25% probability to Stun the target. On the first attack, however, it will only have an ~8.5% probability to bash; this is its PRD constant C. Each subsequent attack without a bash increases this probability by 8.5%. So on the second attack, the chance is 17%, on the third it is 25.5%, etc. After a bash procs, the probability resets to 8.5% for the next attack. These probabilities average out so that, over a moderate period of time, Bash will proc very nearly 25% of the time.

- DotA 2 Pseudo-random distribution

That is entirely due to how they decided to implement their system and nothing to do with "RNG".

I assume the real reason it's setup that way is because players in a competitive game don't want "luck" involved or at the very least want it's effects to be minimized as much as possible, such as the system you quoted.

[Timetwister]

Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?

It's really sad that the government has stopped such a brilliant idea.

[ranlo]

Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?

It's really sad that the government has stopped such a brilliant idea.

I'd personally like if we could get information on what's going on. The last things posted were almost two months ago:

"Doog and I are working on alternatives for the sites and will keep you posted as to all progress being made."

"Doog is going to set the site up as a 'play coin' venue  until we have things sorted out. Please come and visit with us there, where we will try to remain active and available for questions and concerns."

Haven't heard anything on either of these fronts.

[suchmoon]

Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?

It's really sad that the government has stopped such a brilliant idea.

I'd personally like if we could get information on what's going on. The last things posted were almost two months ago:

"Doog and I are working on alternatives for the sites and will keep you posted as to all progress being made."

"Doog is going to set the site up as a 'play coin' venue  until we have things sorted out. Please come and visit with us there, where we will try to remain active and available for questions and concerns."

Haven't heard anything on either of these fronts.

Dooglus is busy Creating Everything (tm)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.msg8343746#msg8343746

tldr: DiceBitco.in seems to be the place where there is some good action going on. It's still early days so proceed with caution.

[theskillzdatklls]

Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?

It's really sad that the government has stopped such a brilliant idea.

Stole these words from me

[MilkyLep]

Let the guy have the rest and relaxation he earned after a tough dedicated year to JD, investors and gamblers. Doog is always around and (seemingly) always happy to talk and educate. Time will tell if JD reopens, but for now, theres no reason to rush into anything.

I have nothing but the utmost repsect for dooglus as a person and for what he's helped accomplish for bitcoin as a protocol, a currency and a community.

[waterpile]

C'mon Dooglus please think of a way to continue your business 

[romerun]

Stop investing, keep hoarding might be the best strategy for the next year, doog suggests.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Exinvestors, have you found any other good investment in bitcoins?

For the moment I keep my 900K doggiecoins working at: https://www.dogedice.me
plus 1.6 btc invested at https://dicebitco.in
but I would feel safer keeping them in doog's hands

[Timetwister]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.msg8343746#msg8343746

tldr: DiceBitco.in seems to be the place where there is some good action going on. It's still early days so proceed with caution.

I'm a bit tired of random unknown people looking for investors, I already had enough with Everydice. I'll read that thread anyway.

[willBTC]

why dooglus signature about https://dicebitco.in/   .

it's strange...

[Hfleer]

why dooglus signature about https://dicebitco.in/   .

it's strange...

Because he participates in their signature promotion plus is an investor in their site?

[AcoinL.L.C]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=716312.msg8343746#msg8343746

tldr: DiceBitco.in seems to be the place where there is some good action going on. It's still early days so proceed with caution.

I'm a bit tired of random unknown people looking for investors, I already had enough with Everydice. I'll read that thread anyway.

DiceBitco.in has over 3550BTC in its BR, and they signed a wallet showing they personally own over 200BTC of it. They also run the largest LTC dice site and have for several months, I would say they are more trust worthy than just about any other active casino site.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

DiceBitco.in has over 3550BTC in its BR, and they signed a wallet showing they personally own over 200BTC of it. They also run the largest LTC dice site and have for several months, I would say they are more trust worthy than just about any other active casino site.

No. Trust is not built by holding large amounts of money. Trust is only built by returning large amounts of money.

If someone holds 100k BTC for months, would you consider them trustworthy? You shouldn't, because simply holding BTC gives no indication of if they will actually let everyone withdraw when people decide to withdraw. dooglus is so far the only one that is trustworthy.

[Dabs]

Send me some money, then I'll return it to you.