[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread

[canuckgal]

You guys realize given Ken's most recent news this stock is massively undervalued, right?

Yay cheap shares!

[LorenzoMoney]

You have a great point! There are all sorts of bitcoin stocks on Bitfunder and the other exchanges and Ken has been one of the very few people issuing stock on any btc exchange who has made himself accessible and available by phone and on the #bitfunder Freenode IRC channel. His readiness to talk and availability is what made me feel confident about investing in AMC and then in Active Mining.

Make any accusation you want, but the guy HAS been available and accessible.

Hatred sensing i am..
Relax everyone.. if you are so eager for an update just call Ken and ask him.. Ranting on this forum wont be getting you your shares.. correct??  

If he is too busy to spend 1 minute making an update here, then how could he possibly not be too busy to answer multiple peoples phone calls?

Who cares why, fact remains that he answers his phone calls and has spent A LOT of time talking to shareholders 1 on 1 including me.  Any troll/shithead can come on here and swarm him with stupid questions, but he knows that when someone picks up the phone then they are serious and much more likely to hold a mature discussion.  

[VolanicEruptor]

I did some simple math to figure out the Annual Return rate on dividends once we have 6TH/S up and running.

First of all, lets make two assumptions in this scenerio:
.005 share price
Avalon clones are up and running in September
Difficulty doubles in 1 month from now (~60,000,000)

Ken would mine 50 BTC/day over a 24 hour period
or 350 BTC/week

350 BTC / 10,000,000 shares = .000035BTC / share weekly dividend

.000035BTC x 52 weeks = .00182BTC/share annual dividend total


.00182BTC/share anually is 36.4%



Okay, now that we have established 36.4% Annual Return, I'm going to describe why I fucking love this number.
36.4% annual return in bitcoin land is what we would expect from a company based on what they currently have, in this case it will be the Avalon clones about a month from now. 

What I'm saying is that, even if this eASIC project were to be flushed down the shitter at this very moment, we could survive with a very healthy return on the Avalons alone!

This is why I view the eASIC deal as ICING ON THE CAKE.  We're not talking about your regular icing, though.  We're talking about 100 feet of thick creamy frosty icing with hundred dollar bills sticking out.   

This is one hell of a fucking cake, ladies and gentlemen. 

[gog1]

I did some simple math to figure out the Annual Return rate on dividends once we have 6TH/S up and running.

First of all, lets make two assumptions in this scenerio:
.005 share price
Avalon clones are up and running in September
Difficulty doubles in 1 month from now (~60,000,000)

Ken would mine 50 BTC/day over a 24 hour period
or 350 BTC/week

350 BTC / 10,000,000 shares = .000035BTC / share weekly dividend

.000035BTC x 52 weeks = .00182BTC/share annual dividend total


.00182BTC/share anually is 36.4%



Okay, now that we have established 36.4% Annual Return, I'm going to describe why I fucking love this number.
36.4% annual return in bitcoin land is what we would expect from a company based on what they currently have, in this case it will be the Avalon clones about a month from now. 

What I'm saying is that, even if this eASIC project were to be flushed down the shitter at this very moment, we could survive with a very healthy return on the Avalons alone!

This is why I view the eASIC deal as ICING ON THE CAKE.  We're not talking about your regular icing, though.  We're talking about 100 feet of thick creamy frosty icing with hundred dollar bills sticking out.   

This is one hell of a fucking cake, ladies and gentlemen. 

though I hold shares and bullish, above view is a bit simplistic.  The diff when Avalon clones ready will likely be higher than 60 mil, in addition, the stated yield only holds if diff maintained at 60 mil for 52 weeks.  Most of the value is from the eASIC project.

[VolanicEruptor]

Look at a company like BASICmining, their share value reflected their current equipment without any kind of development of their own.  
You don't look at it and say "Oh this won't be profitable a year from now!".  Obviously every company is going to attempt to adapt, whether it be purchasing new equipment or making their own, but so far I have noticed that current hashrate is the dominating factor of share value.  

I should have added one last assumption:
"The company continues to adapt to increasing difficulty through various means".

Same with ASICminer.  You don't base your annual return projection on a constant hashrate for an entire year.  You expect them to continue growing, but the current hashrate is all you can base the true value on as adaptations aren't as predictable.  

In the end, the current dividends are what matters to people, and from there you can only make guesses on the miners ability to maintain this.  36% is incredible.  

[LorenzoMoney]

Mabsark,

Why did you wait until the very last moment to transfer your shares? When I made my request to transfer my shares of AMC, Ken did it within about four hours.  Maybe he just likes me more than you. Or maybe I did it early on so I would not be sent into a last minute tizzy. 

Why did you wait until the very last minute?  Just curious.

According to Ken, he was going to spend today transferring shares. I've had no shares and no word from Ken as to why. Has anybody else had their shares? Is this not a legitimate question? If Ken had no intention of transferring the shares today, then he shouldn't have said he was going to. Nobody likes being lied to. If he's been side tracked or the transfers are just taking longer than expected, then he should inform us. Is it really so difficult and time consuming for Ken to take 1 minute to tell us what is happening? It's not like he hasn't been on here. He was last active about 5 minutes ago according to his profile, so he's actually following along, yet purposefully choosing to ignore us.

[LorenzoMoney]

The reason why what you are saying is so funny is because about a month ago, I panicked and sold a bunch of my Active Mining shares. It was a very big bunch. I sold it all off in groups. (Yes, I know it was a mistake, but I still own a large amount.) When I went into the Bitfunder IRC channel and looked on here, I found people posting accusations that someone was manipulating the price. It was funny because all that had happened was that one person, me, panicked and sold off shares. But, the paranoid people, the people looking for conspiracy blamed Ken or invisible elves and saw nefarious motivation in what happened.

The dangerous thing about an unregulated exchange/market is that wild things can happen. The wonderful thing about an unregulated market is that it represents the truest example of a freemarket.

If you are angry that you did not buy at that low IPO price and are resentful, just admit that to yourself and quit consuming bandwidth with kvetching and whining.

If you want a safe investment, go buy CDs (certificates of deposit) for 1% at your local savings bank.

Guys, enough with the ideas of manipulation. When the price increases that much, some people are try to sell their shares at a reasonable profit. And there are a lot of people that even at .4 have made a lot of bank from AMC and they just want to realize those gains. Don't fret about it. We'll grow, but when you grow too fast you get growing pains. It's a good time to gather more shares up if your looking long . I definitely think above .01 is very likely, but that doesn't mean we need to get there overnight. Either way, looks like we'll have some competition, with no real updates or good news coming in, things might still be a little shaky until it's not profitable for people to sell.

You dont have 10k walls pushing the prices down and disappering when somebodys intention is to sell.. its clear and rampant manipulation..

[AstroBoy]

Look at a company like BASICmining, their share value reflected their current equipment without any kind of development of their own.  
You don't look at it and say "Oh this won't be profitable a year from now!".  Obviously every company is going to attempt to adapt, whether it be purchasing new equipment or making their own, but so far I have noticed that current hashrate is the dominating factor of share value.  

I should have added one last assumption:
"The company continues to adapt to increasing difficulty through various means".

Same with ASICminer.  You don't base your annual return projection on a constant hashrate for an entire year.  You expect them to continue growing, but the current hashrate is all you can base the true value on as adaptations aren't as predictable.  

In the end, the current dividends are what matters to people, and from there you can only make guesses on the miners ability to maintain this.  36% is incredible.  

One interesting concept we should all consider is no longer the change in hash rate itself but rather the expansion of the number of companies producing ASIC hashing devices.  We currently have 3 maybe 4 players actually producing and delivering ASIC devices right now (for the past couple months).   Right now the total network hash rate is exploding.  I've noticed approximately 50-100 Th/s added just in the past week or so.  With production ramping up at these 3-4 factories right now plus the countless new entrants into the ASIC bitcoin mining market we can start looking at increasing network hash rate as a function of the number of ASIC manufacturers.

All these guys are promising delivery in fall of 2013: FastHash, KNCminer, Bitfury, (plus some chinese ones that could be scams) (plus ActiveMining VMC of course).  So the number of manufacturers is set to double in the last few months of this year.  What will this do to the growth rate of the network hash rate and consequently the difficulty level?

I love this stock and I'm not selling FUD here.  I just think this is a factor worth serious consideration when trying to make projections.

[iCEBREAKER]

You guys realize given Ken's most recent news this stock is massively undervalued, right?

Depends on what you value:

• Current Hashrate (overvalued)
• Future Hashrate (undervalued)

Shares are worth what people are willing to pay for them. i.e. the question of value is illusory

A better way of phrasing the question is: Does Ken's news increase the value proposition of holding ActM?

Answer: yes, but I propose careful investors & potential investors are waiting for two specific things:

• An increase in Current Hashrate
• Press release from eASIC regarding partnership with Virtual Mining Corporation LLC (Hardware branch of ActiveMining)

Cheers ActiveMiners!

My investment paradigm is more qualitative than mere probable anticipated hashrates.  I'd stick to fixed-rate mining bonds if I wanted to be quantitative.

Demonstrated organizational competence and capacity are key to me.  In terms of AMC:

FriedKen has demonstrated impressive foresight in being an early miner and investing in batch 2 Avalon + chips.
FriedKen has gained expertise in several areas needed for successful vertical integration.
He's been mining with Avalons.  He's had an IPO, raised a cool million $, and crowdsourced a reorg.
He's designed an ASIC, hired contractors, paid dividends, incorporated, and talked to lawyers.

All of this is utterly invaluable in honing the extremely rare skill set required to give Asicminer a run for the money!

A renaissance man like FriedKen does the jobs of four or more specialists at competing firms such as Laughcoin Labcoin.   

[sayaz]

Are we official with FriedKen then? Has a good ring to it.

[bigdude]

FriedKen has demonstrated impressive foresight in being an early miner and investing in batch 2 Avalon + chips.
FriedKen has gained expertise in several areas needed for successful vertical integration.

A renaissance man like FriedKen does the jobs of four or more specialists at competing firms such as Laughcoin Labcoin.   

FriedKen it is - love it haha

[freedomno1]

FriedKen has demonstrated impressive foresight in being an early miner and investing in batch 2 Avalon + chips.
FriedKen has gained expertise in several areas needed for successful vertical integration.

A renaissance man like FriedKen does the jobs of four or more specialists at competing firms such as Laughcoin Labcoin.   

FriedKen it is - love it haha

Next it will be talking mergers 

[Mabsark]

Mabsark,

Why did you wait until the very last moment to transfer your shares? When I made my request to transfer my shares of AMC, Ken did it within about four hours.  Maybe he just likes me more than you. Or maybe I did it early on so I would not be sent into a last minute tizzy. 

Why did you wait until the very last minute?  Just curious.

According to Ken, he was going to spend today transferring shares. I've had no shares and no word from Ken as to why. Has anybody else had their shares? Is this not a legitimate question? If Ken had no intention of transferring the shares today, then he shouldn't have said he was going to. Nobody likes being lied to. If he's been side tracked or the transfers are just taking longer than expected, then he should inform us. Is it really so difficult and time consuming for Ken to take 1 minute to tell us what is happening? It's not like he hasn't been on here. He was last active about 5 minutes ago according to his profile, so he's actually following along, yet purposefully choosing to ignore us.

I didn't wait till the very last minute. I bought them on Saturday and tendered them immediately.

[julz]

I've been waiting since July 14th for my share transfer.

I'm now emailing from a different account in case there was some email issue between us. 

Surely this could have been automated (or even manually processed) just from the inbound transfers he received??  It will show up in their transaction history.

[ArcticWolf]

I've been waiting since July 14th for my share transfer.

I'm now emailing from a different account in case there was some email issue between us. 

Surely this could have been automated (or even manually processed) just from the inbound transfers he received??  It will show up in their transaction history.

Not sure about Bitfunder, but on btct it only shows "Transferred in" and not who transferred them to you

[Rannasha]

I've been waiting since July 14th for my share transfer.

I'm now emailing from a different account in case there was some email issue between us. 

Surely this could have been automated (or even manually processed) just from the inbound transfers he received??  It will show up in their transaction history.

Not sure about Bitfunder, but on btct it only shows "Transferred in" and not who transferred them to you

BTCT recently (= a few days ago) added the username of the person doing the transfer to their API output.

[EskimoBob]

Can we reduce the number of open "Official" threads for ActiveMining? Or maybe rename so they reflect the content better?

1) [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread  - 68 pages
Edit: 2) [AMC]-The Official Active Mining Cooperative Discussion - 162 pages
3) ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread  - 12 pages


Close down 1 or 2 and leave on for chit-chat and create one for official announcements/reports only and keep it closed for comments.
People can use the chit-chat thread for that.

Thank you.

I don't get you - two separate entities, two separate official threads. The third thread you quoted is not even official so where is the problem?

It started out as #2 and because contract changes, #1 was created. Do not worry about the third.

#1 has grown to 141 pages and most of it is noobs pulling wild theories out of they ars.
#3 has grown to  49  pages and most of the useless chit chat we see in "[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread# belongs there.

Scanning trough pages upon pages of this junk, generated buy blabbering noobs and ranting apologist, is total waste of everyone's time.

Ken, to keep the speculations at bay (at least try), can you start issuing short regular statements (2 or 3 times per week)?
Only few lines will be enough and all you really need to write down is what have you done in past few days and what are you planning to do in next few days. (Like they do in scrum meetings, but replace the "yesterday" and "today" with last 2 days next 2 days. (only important stuff!)

You can send that information out via btct.co system so shareholders receive it before the forum dwellers do.

Cheers and hopefully you understand why writing we lines, following the same format, will actually save you time and help you to concentrate on important stuff.

PS! When can we expect the monthly statement (including updated PL, CF and balance sheet)

[funkymunky]

I don't have the shares and I have no idea when I will get them back off Ken. If you're okay with that though, I'd be willing to sell you 2000 shares @ 0.0055 BTC each for a total of 11 BTC. I don't know why you would want to do that though, but it's your choice.

Does this offer still stand?

[lewicki]

Ken has already released 2 updates within a week of today. The guy is ridiculously busy. I suggest that if you need your hand held that much, that you come back to reality. Check any public company and look at their intervals of press releases. They call it speculation for a reason.

So unless you find an office building that has a portal that leads to Ken's brain, you're going to have make do.

On the 15th of every month he releases financials for the previous month.

[drdanishkhan]

Its been ages since Friedcat posted anything on the threads..