HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet

[Melbustus]

The ball is in HashFast's court.  They seem pretty well run and I think they know the market is watching (and thus their ability to secure future sales).   Lets see what they do.

Agreed. I believe they're honest in their intentions and well run in general; ie, they will do everything they can to make the MPP turn a profit for Batch-1 customers. It's just an issue of *when* they get enough chips to satisfy the MPP, and what the hashrate is at the time, of course.

I just hope that they'll keep the spirit of the MPP in mind if for some reason it does NOT yield a profit for Batch-1 customers....ie, they could provide discounts on future gear, more chips, even partial refunds... After all, it was Batch-1 customers taking the biggest risks, with the least information, at the highest price points, to provide the initial liquidity/funding that Hashfast needed to actually enter production. I imagine they're decently capitalized at this point.

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[dopamine]

Fuck that buying more hashfast gear, they dont even have  a working prototype. No to discounts ! The batch 1 orders are the ones who get screwed because they risk more capital excepting delivery at least end of month and now get the same MMP as every other batch that will ship almost the same time. im hoping they dont ship so I can get a refund. How much profit u think Hashfast has made? Without even shipping a product out? And if cyberdoc did sell his preorder good for him for pumping the shit out of hashfast.

[Puppet]

they will do everything they can to make the MPP turn a profit for Batch-1 customers.

You dont seriously believe thats why they launched MPP in the first place, do you? Its a marketing gimmick to secure more preorders for a few months later at still very attractive (for them) prices. Given that the network currently (more than) doubles every month, those MPP modules will make even less of an ROI than the original order.

Here is a little thought experiment for you; assume HF sold 6PH of preorders so far and lets assume everyone ordered MPP along with that. They ship everything instantly in 3 weeks. Obviously, less than 2 weeks after that 6PH hits the network, all customers that didnt understand it before, will understand the situation they are in. Lets assume as a token of goodwill HF releases all the MPP modules immediately. What will that do for your revenue? Almost nothing. Three words for you: zero sum game. If you want to win, dont play.

[Melbustus]

they will do everything they can to make the MPP turn a profit for Batch-1 customers.

You dont seriously believe thats why they launched MPP in the first place, do you? Its a marketing gimmick to secure more preorders for a few months later at still very attractive (for them) prices. Given that the network currently (more than) doubles every month, those MPP modules will make even less of an ROI than the original order.

Here is a little thought experiment for you; assume HF sold 6PH of preorders so far and lets assume everyone ordered MPP along with that. They ship everything instantly in 3 weeks. Obviously, less than 2 weeks after that 6PH hits the network, all customers that didnt understand it before, will understand the situation they are in. Lets assume as a token of goodwill HF releases all the MPP modules immediately. What will that do for your revenue? Almost nothing. Three words for you: zero sum game. If you want to win, dont play.

If the MPP is executed in full, the hashrate to not ROI on batch-1 would have to average 16.2PH or higher over the 90 days following MPP-chip delivery. That doesn't include anything mined prior to MPP delivery, nor does it include anything after those 90 days.

It's gonna be close.

[Puppet]

I dont know what math you used, but mine is simple: MPP is 4x the GH/$ 3+ months later. If network doubling continues, 3+ months means 8+x the difficulty. So roughly half the ROI of the original order, which would have been a fat loss otherwise you wouldnt get the full MPP upgrade. Now I know thats not entirely correct, but close enough to illustrate my point. And that is assuming they ship after 3 months, and not 4 or 6 or 9 months. I dont see any delivery date promise for the MPP modules.

[Melbustus]

I dont know what math you used...

(2.5 / H) * 3600 * 90 = 50. Solve for H.

I dont see any delivery date promise for the MPP modules.

Yes, that's obviously key. If it's longer than 90 days, that's a big problem. With the presumed 90 days, it's borderline.

[DeathAndTaxes]

I dont know what math you used, but mine is simple: MPP is 4x the GH/$ 3+ months later. If network doubling continues, 3+ months means 8+x the difficulty. So roughly half the ROI of the original order, which would have been a fat loss otherwise you wouldnt get the full MPP upgrade. Now I know thats not entirely correct, but close enough to illustrate my point. And that is assuming they ship after 3 months, and not 4 or 6 or 9 months. I dont see any delivery date promise for the MPP modules.

That would assume the network is >28 PH/s by February.  Does that seem likely to you.   A guestimate of pre-orders is closer to 11 to 13 PH/s by January. Of course you might be right and if so then no future sales as well as undelivered existing sales from any vendor at any price is likely to be negative return.  Then again law of large numbers and all that it will be increasingly difficulty for the network to continue to double indefinitely.  We got a big ~50% bump due to KNC's rollout but for example to make another 50% bump would mean another >1.75 PH/s in the next week.  I don't think that will happen.  Since neither HF or KNC is shipping anything in volume until mid Nov I don't think the rest of the vendors have enough supply to sustain that growth.

What Melbustus was pointing out is the value of the MPP depends on the hashrate at the time of MPP delivery.  His math shows ~16.2 PH/s is a break even scenario.  >16.2 PH/s is a loss and under 16.2 PH/s is a gain.

You guys are saying the same thing although I believe your >28 PH/s is fringe of what is probable.   

[Puppet]

That would assume the network is >28 PH/s by February.  Does that seem likely to you.   A guestimate of pre-orders is closer to 11 to 13 PH/s by January.

From 13PH in january to 28PH in February is barely more than yet another doubling. Will it happen? Maybe, but probably not, bbut Melbustus 16PH sure sounds feasible to me. Especially since the actual "makes sense" (cant use break even here) numbers are likely a lot lower because  your dates are very optimistic. Hashfast may or may not start shipping in 3 weeks, I certainly doubt they will finish the same week nor do I expect them to ship the MPPs within a day of reaching 90 days. They are already hiding behind their December 31 guarantee for B1 delivery, and there is none for the MPP.

BTW, feel free to take it with a large spoon of salt, but friedcat is apparently on record (interview with a chinese journalist, cf asicminer thread) that he would be ready in February to deploy "100s of PH". I find it hard to swallow myself, but even if its just 1/10th of that, may mess up your numbers a little bit.

[cedivad]

How much profit u think Hashfast has made? Without even shipping a product out?

I meet John at the conference, because i was starting to complain about things i didn't see on track. By John i mean HashFast's VP of marketing.
He was a "nice guy". When i made a joke about his happiness and self-confidence, he replied that they sold 3M$ of products without even starting to ship something, with a huge smile. I was shocked by his answer, but i swear to god that this is what he told me. I should have made a recording of that, what a fool I'm.
However wait, there where two guys sitting upstair one meter from us that where listening to the whole conversation, we might be able to trace them down and have them as witness in case of a lawsuit. From their accent i would presume they where German. Good stuff.

The hashrate at the beginning of next year will keep skyrocketing as it did until now, there is still a lot of room for increase. Our MPP will probably guarantee us something like another 10% return. And yet, it all depends on my signature. What seems most probable to me right now is that despite all of the claims, we will see something only before the end of the year.

Cases with PSUs on the wrong side guys, cases with PSUs on the wrong side.

Think about that. Yeah, it's computer science.

[Minor Miner]

BTW, feel free to take it with a large spoon of salt, but friedcat is apparently on record (interview with a chinese journalist, cf asicminer thread) that he would be ready in February to deploy "100s of PH". I find it hard to swallow myself, but even if its just 1/10th of that, may mess up your numbers a little bit.

Please, D&T stop trying to explain why the percentage growth may change over time.
Unless friedcat is the son of the minister of energy, there is no way he will be permission to put in transformers for 50MW of electricity anywhere in china.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Friedcat also promised 1 PH/s by the end of this year and 500 TH/s months ago.  BTW I am an ASICMiner shareholder but they obviously have some issues as their hashrate skyrocketed from nothing to 50 TH/s over the course of a few months and then has essentially flatlined for the last 3 months while the network exploded in difficulty.

Still like I said it could happen we could see >28 PH/s in February in which case it really doesn't matter every ASIC from every company not already delivered and actively hashing is almost certainly negative roi.  It doesn't really matter which horse you have your cart hitched to they are all going into the river.

[Puppet]

he replied that they sold 3M$ of products without even starting to ship something, with a huge smile. I was shocked by his answer,

When was that conference? If anything, $3M is (far) lower than you would expect. Just their public list of B1 babyjets consists of 570 units x $5700 = $3.2M
Thats without any upgrade kits, batch 2 orders, without any MPPs, without any Sierra's. So how could that answer shock you, unless, like me, you are shocked its so low.

[cedivad]

So how could that answer shock you, unless, like me, you are shocked its so low.

I wasn't shocked by the amount, we all know how expensive 22nm are after all. What was groundbreaking was hearing him replying that way. He also kept repeating that what they wanted where their customers to succeed, this is why they initially launched batch 3 sales as private only with existing customers only. It was a nonsense then, it's an utter nonsense now.

[Puppet]

Still like I said it could happen we could see >28 PH/s in February in which case it really doesn't matter every ASIC from every company not already delivered and actively hashing is almost certainly negative roi.  It doesn't really matter which horse you have your cart hitched to they are all going into the river.

Thats been my firm conviction ever since the first asic was announced. A few lucky exceptions aside, everyone buying rather than selling these asics would go under. OR more accurately perhaps, on average asic buyers would make substantial BTC losses until the network begins to stabilize compared to the btc exchange rate.  The question is only if they get screwed because these vendors ship and maintain exponential growth for long enough, or if they get screwed because they dont ship fast enough.

As for your predictions; Ive obviously seen your thread, and its superb work. But its far from complete. For instance, for BFL monarch you have a grand total of "". Now I dont know the actual number either, but Im pretty confident it will be a very large number, potentially larger than any of the other 28nm providers. Why? simple, undelivered 65nm force fed upgrades. How many of those that still havent received their 65nm BFL miners next month will still want it, rather than upgrade it to 28nm monarchs? Ive guestimated BFLs total 65nm preorders, shipped and unshipped could total as much as $150M, based on their claims of owning half the network hashrate until recently (~1PH) and >20.000 shipped units,  which would both point to ~$50M in shipped units,  and the notion they appear only 1/3 through their backorder. If those numbers are somewhat accurate, and assuming "only" $50M of their remaining backorder is converted in to Monarchs, thats >6 PH without taking any new sales in to account, nor the fact that the pricing is chosen in such a way that most people have to increase their bet.

Of course, knowing BFL, when those will be deployed is another matter entirely. So your may well end up being correct if they only deliver in August, but Im not betting either way; and certainly not against any of those Monarchs to be deployed before HF's MPP units ship.

[cypherdoc]

The batch 1 orders are the ones who get screwed because they risk more capital excepting delivery at least end of month and now get the same MMP as every other batch that will ship almost the same time.

+1

A November Baby Jet is $4560.  The first batch baby jet scheduled for Oct release is late and is now a Nov delivery.  It cost $5600.

So $1040 is the difference and there should be some compensation.

and guess who's order gets devalued the most in Batch 1? 

just so you can get a little satisfaction.

[cypherdoc]

A November Baby Jet is $4560.  The first batch baby jet scheduled for Oct release is late and is now a Nov delivery.  It cost $5600.

So $1040 is the difference and there should be some compensation.

and guess who's order gets devalued the most in Batch 1?  

just so you can get a little satisfaction.

I dont know.  Who?

Order #1 loses it's advantage relatively the most.

[DeathAndTaxes]

As for your predictions; Ive obviously seen your thread, and its superb work. But its far from complete. For instance, for BFL monarch you have a grand total of "". Now I dont know the actual number either, but Im pretty confident it will be a very large number, potentially larger than any of the other 28nm providers. Why? simple, undelivered 65nm force fed upgrades. How many of those that still havent received their 65nm BFL miners next month will still want it, rather than upgrade it to 28nm monarchs? Ive guestimated BFLs total 65nm preorders, shipped and unshipped could total as much as $150M, based on their claims of owning half the network hashrate until recently (~1PH) and >20.000 shipped units,  which would both point to ~$50M in shipped units,  and the notion they appear only 1/3 through their backorder. If those numbers are somewhat accurate, and assuming "only" $50M of their remaining backorder is converted in to Monarchs, thats >6 PH without taking any new sales in to account, nor the fact that the pricing is chosen in such a way that most people have to increase their bet.

Of course, knowing BFL, when those will be deployed is another matter entirely. So your may well end up being correct if they only deliver in August, but Im not betting either way; and certainly not against any of those Monarchs to be deployed before HF's MPP units ship.

Thanks.  I agree the Monarch is going to be large but reading between the lines BFL is now saying Feb delivery.  If BFL is saying Feb delivery then I think they really mean we will try to ship them in March but probably won't until April and then our volume will be so slow it will take till June or August to complete the sales.  So I think your 6 PH/s for Monarch is a good guestimate starting point I just don't think the rollout will even begin until Mar/Apr and even then it probably will be spread out over months (say 2 PH/s per month for 3 months).  At that point it will be a relatively small portion of the network.  One point to consider is that BFL reported the Monarch would tapeout in Sept.  AFAIK they have never provided confirmation that it happened or when it happened despite numerous requests from customers.  If they haven't taped then delivery in Feb starts to look very unlikely.  Even if they have tapped BFL would need to "not be BFL" and get everything right (everything they got wrong on the first 3 products) to make Feb.

and certainly not against any of those Monarchs to be deployed before HF's MPP units ship

Oh I will take that bet if it is even money.  I don't need absolute certainty just reasonable odds.  Given BFL track record and the fact that HashFast is simply finished if they miss both product launch AND MPP delivery (which likely means they miss batch 2 and batch 3, and upgrade deadlines as well) I would feel very confident in betting the MPP is hashing well before BFL ships the Monarch.

[Visesrion]

https://hashfast.com/pictures-of-the-sierra-in-production/

There you have the new pictures we demand  (ironic mode on)

Like I said in the other thread, congratulations to anyone who has purchased a sierra as its pretty clear where HF is working on.

[crumbs]

https://hashfast.com/pictures-of-the-sierra-in-production/

There you have the new pictures we demand  (ironic mode on)

Like I said in the other thread, congratulations to anyone who has purchased a sierra as its pretty clear where HF is working on.

The proverbial box of fans.  Sans the fans.

[pmorici]

https://hashfast.com/pictures-of-the-sierra-in-production/

There you have the new pictures we demand  (ironic mode on)

Like I said in the other thread, congratulations to anyone who has purchased a sierra as its pretty clear where HF is working on.

That is probably a batch #1 Sierra which were never sold to the public but instead were sold to IceDrill.  Has HF ever clarified where BabyJet orders are queue wise in relation to the Sierras sold to IceDrill?  Why haven't we seen any photos of the babyJet case yet They've updated the Sierra rendering but not the BabyJet.

I also think it is kind of funny that they posted two pictures of the same exact case w/ components from slightly different angles.