2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[Enjel]

One of the few, that actual see what's going on.
Great analysis.

"FUD" naysayers to the author - let's see how this unfold, for now you are proven wrong.

The price action is normal, and 8k-10k was predicted months in advance. The target is still 30k.

The elliot wave history of Bitcoin has been a first drop (down from 19k to 11k), then a bounce back up, then one more plummet (down to 9k in this case), and then a new ATH of about 3x what the bottom was.

Couple the fact that this general historical pattern also coincided with January, and you get this.

Being "proven wrong" means nothing when your shorts make very little, but buying at 9k and selling at 13k, then rebuying makes much more sense.

What? Show my a chart with this elliot wave chart.
Even basic TA would say, that we are in frickin downtrend from at least 2 weeks. And no, it's not a correction only, it's 50% from ATH, so it's a crash already.
The same correction was in 2014. And pattern is set, everyone will play it. Doesn't matter Mt.gox, now we have also very bad exchange such as bitfinex, which can be shutdown, bringing 25% of whole money invested in crypto down (which is even more likely now then ever).
I agree we see a bounce to 13-14K, the same as 2014, but it will be a bull trap.
We have gotten out of triangle with a downturn, and price action is very weak. Now saying 30K is target is like saying that gold is going to 2.5K in this year.

This is a pretty good reference: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29279653#msg29279653

It shows that the current price actions is (1) normal, (2) that it is happening because we are in such a bull market that prices are rising way too fast, and (3) that the target price is ~25k-30k.

We're actually 100% up from just a few months ago, and up 1000% since 1 year ago. No, this is called a correction.

A crash would be dropping below 8k, since that's the critical support area.

[1714161422]

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[alyssa85]

"Super Blue Blood Moon" trade...
https://youtu.be/zUQiUFZ5RDw

In order to go to the $8000 level, we need a lot of sellers - and I'm not sure where they are going to come from. The Tether Bitfinex news sent the price to just under $10,000, but there appear to be a lot of buys at that level.

[muf18]

One of the few, that actual see what's going on.
Great analysis.

"FUD" naysayers to the author - let's see how this unfold, for now you are proven wrong.

The price action is normal, and 8k-10k was predicted months in advance. The target is still 30k.

The elliot wave history of Bitcoin has been a first drop (down from 19k to 11k), then a bounce back up, then one more plummet (down to 9k in this case), and then a new ATH of about 3x what the bottom was.

Couple the fact that this general historical pattern also coincided with January, and you get this.

Being "proven wrong" means nothing when your shorts make very little, but buying at 9k and selling at 13k, then rebuying makes much more sense.

What? Show my a chart with this elliot wave chart.
Even basic TA would say, that we are in frickin downtrend from at least 2 weeks. And no, it's not a correction only, it's 50% from ATH, so it's a crash already.
The same correction was in 2014. And pattern is set, everyone will play it. Doesn't matter Mt.gox, now we have also very bad exchange such as bitfinex, which can be shutdown, bringing 25% of whole money invested in crypto down (which is even more likely now then ever).
I agree we see a bounce to 13-14K, the same as 2014, but it will be a bull trap.
We have gotten out of triangle with a downturn, and price action is very weak. Now saying 30K is target is like saying that gold is going to 2.5K in this year.

This is a pretty good reference: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29279653#msg29279653

It shows that the current price actions is (1) normal, (2) that it is happening because we are in such a bull market that prices are rising way too fast, and (3) that the target price is ~25k-30k.

We're actually 100% up from just a few months ago, and up 1000% since 1 year ago. No, this is called a correction.

A crash would be dropping below 8k, since that's the critical support area.

But as people wake up in the awes of price "crash", they are likely to sell.
We triggered avalanche bought by a lot of bots, and some risky traders, which will get sold on the next wave up, when everybody will say "we are saved".
Of course, it can not play out. But we are here appearing to the main question - why wouldn't this appear to be correct with a bigger R/R, than going long, when we know, that every Joe Sixpack and their dog are long on bitcoin from 10.000$.
And when we are in now 3 years bull run, which have got enourmously accelerated in 2017, to the absurd levels.
That's not how looks adoption. Heck, there is no adoption, what's so ever, just a bunch of people with a couple of $ and big money pumpers, which are speculating on a fraction of supply on fragmented and centralized exchanges.

There is now bigger probability for bears, and some analysts see this too. Just critical mass, of mania have blown off. Or maybe not. But a lot of people have bought something that they really don't understand, so my guess is - anymore drop from this point (if we get a bounce, and then more heavy sellers), will freak them out.
Tether case can be named FUD, idiocy, whatever.
Didn't make it wrong there are shady cases.
Imo, there should bear market.
2011-2013 cycle of bull market
2014 bear market
2015-2017 cycle of bull market
2018 bear market?
2019-2021 cycle of bull market?
And so on.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Pinch punch first trade of the month... another short position opened...

BTC/USD (COINBASE)
OPEN: 9601
CLOSE: 7864
STOP: 10296
RISK: 7.3%
REWARD: 18%

[Febo]

• Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
• Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.

I speculate Bitcoin will not go under $4000.  Wider adoption made Bitcoin less volatile. Well there is still chance it will go but is not big.   And from what past teach us we can see that its price is never for to long at minimum values.

2018 for sure cant repeat 2017 or 2016. But since we are so early and is lots of place for speculations could be much closer to 2015 then to 2014.  

P.S. It is most unfortunate that people of Reddit have chosen to bury, down-vote and delete all posts of this subject matter! Losses could be prevented and gains donated to charity!   

If everyone or many would sell then the price would be much lover back then and you would not get any more money for charities as you get if you sell now.

[muf18]

• Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
• Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.

I speculate Bitcoin will not go under $4000.  Wider adoption made Bitcoin less volatile. Well there is still chance it will go but is not big.   And from what past teach us we can see that its price is never for to long at minimum values.

2018 for sure cant repeat 2017 or 2016. But since we are so early and is lots of place for speculations could be much closer to 2015 then to 2014.  

What adoption ? Last time as I saw major shops, like Steam or Microsoft Azure, had withdraw payments in BTC, because it's too volatile.

[Febo]

What adoption ?

Adoption that happened from 2014 to 2018.


About the length of the bear market is hard to say. Last one was a year and a half. But reason for that was that we had 2 bull runs in 2013. So this bear market should be shorter. But because of more adoption and less volatility should also be longer then previous.   So this are + and -  what means that might be similar as was last.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Halfway Through?
https://redd.it/7umjf9

[Enjel]

Halfway Through?
[Garbage fake chart redacted]

Nope - reached a bottom there. Support was always 8k-9k. When it breaks 7.7k, that's when it's a real bear.

Buying pressure at sub-9k levels is incredible. High volume bounce.

[Gameroid]

What adoption ?

Adoption that happened from 2014 to 2018.


About the length of the bear market is hard to say. Last one was a year and a half. But reason for that was that we had 2 bull runs in 2013. So this bear market should be shorter. But because of more adoption and less volatility should also be longer then previous.   So this are + and -  what means that might be similar as was last.

Yes that surely will be a shorter one, because bitcoin is now getting great support from the investors and they will never want bitcoin value to drop so much, in fact they know the importance of bitcoin and will never sell their holding bitcoin but will try to manage to hold their bitcoin for a good time when its price will start increasing again. I think bitcoin still has good potential and 2018 will be another great year for bitcoin price.

[Enjel]

What adoption ?

Adoption that happened from 2014 to 2018.


About the length of the bear market is hard to say. Last one was a year and a half. But reason for that was that we had 2 bull runs in 2013. So this bear market should be shorter. But because of more adoption and less volatility should also be longer then previous.   So this are + and -  what means that might be similar as was last.

Yes that surely will be a shorter one, because bitcoin is now getting great support from the investors and they will never want bitcoin value to drop so much, in fact they know the importance of bitcoin and will never sell their holding bitcoin but will try to manage to hold their bitcoin for a good time when its price will start increasing again. I think bitcoin still has good potential and 2018 will be another great year for bitcoin price.

Agreed. Too many hungry hawks sitting on the sidelines waiting for the price to drop a bit more before they buy in. Those guys who sold the price down all the way here?

They're still in the game, believe me.

[muf18]

Yeah everybody are waving their hands to dump 1M$ into bitcoin. Give me a break.
Cryptos had amazing year, which was prolonged and overdue, but it's really was overstreached.
Now what's the target for bear? 3000-4000USD is wise to say 0.786 corrective fib in place. And as this is first bubble for many alts I consider they will correct 60-90% from today's level. Many will go to levels from september-october 2017, or lower. Just my thought.

[Enjel]

Yeah everybody are waving their hands to dump 1M$ into bitcoin. Give me a break.
Cryptos had amazing year, which was prolonged and overdue, but it's really was overstreached.
Now what's the target for bear? 3000-4000USD is wise to say 0.786 corrective fib in place. And as this is first bubble for many alts I consider they will correct 60-90% from today's level. Many will go to levels from september-october 2017, or lower. Just my thought.

I think most alts are going to take a massive hit from this correction, although a few are currently holding well, and have actually gone up.

Regarding BTC, I like to reference this very good TA post, since the pattern has been very consistent: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg29420259#msg29420259

At any one point during the dips, you have someone like OP calling it "The end of Bitcoin" or "market crash", but after hitting the proper dipping points, it just keeps accelerating (since it's a bull market).

We will see though!

[Apekool]

The OP holds some truth in the fact that a lot coins are going to disappear. Scammers will withdraw their coins and trade them for cash of course, leaving traders with the useless coins. They won't be worth anything. Also, genuine projects will fail because some will not have anticipated such a drop, which might bring financial troubles. Partners and affiliates might fail then, investors start to worry more and more in general, et cetera. Lots of things that can go wrong just alone because people believe in that BTC 1000000 USD story and try to build a company on that perception. It isn't next century yet by far, first survive this one.

[Apekool]

Yeah everybody are waving their hands to dump 1M$ into bitcoin. Give me a break.
Cryptos had amazing year, which was prolonged and overdue, but it's really was overstreached.
Now what's the target for bear? 3000-4000USD is wise to say 0.786 corrective fib in place. And as this is first bubble for many alts I consider they will correct 60-90% from today's level. Many will go to levels from september-october 2017, or lower. Just my thought.

this

edit: I tend to agree with the above statement, but I don't see it happening -_-'

[drays]

The OP holds some truth in the fact that a lot coins are going to disappear. Scammers will withdraw their coins and trade them for cash of course, leaving traders with the useless coins. They won't be worth anything. Also, genuine projects will fail because some will not have anticipated such a drop, which might bring financial troubles. Partners and affiliates might fail then, investors start to worry more and more in general, et cetera. Lots of things that can go wrong just alone because people believe in that BTC 1000000 USD story and try to build a company on that perception. It isn't next century yet by far, first survive this one.

Well, though the alcoin market will definitely be stressed, only small percentage of alts can disappear. I would expect latest (2017-started) oversold ICO projects to suffer the most, as those projects were overhyped from the beginning. I believe that especially refers to many Ethereum ERC20 tokens, where starting a project was just a marketing effort with no technical challenge - just draw a beautiful whitepaper with some more or less convincing 'usecase' and roll out shiny website filled by bullshit marketing-style wording, with ICO timer running

Crypto was always full of scam projects (unfortunately, but provably). Prior to 2017, those projects were exploding pretty fast, with developers dumping premine on market, or running off with ICO funds. In 2017 I was surprised to see even very 'scam'my looking projects to survive much longer and even thrive. However that should have been temporary, just due to too much money flown in, too much excitement, and too much money making opportunities for scammers. Now when things are under stress, those scams will reveal themselves, and will burst. That process is long overdue.

Projects which have a technical merit, as well as most PoW coins, are going to survive (after being a bit beaten by the storm).

[pinkflower]

     BTC:
    

Im starting to believe this and its scaring the hell out of me. My only hope is to find a stable altcoin where we could hold all our purses in until the bear market is over. My Burst investment is also not looking good lol.

If you have any STABLE altcoin suggestions please notify us lol.

[Enjel]

That's exactly what OP wants to instill - fear. This kind of thiing always happens - or have you forgotten so soon?

Massive spike, followed by correction - during the dip, the bears are always saying that it will crash all the way, instead of just right above the previous peak levels (7.7k in this case), and draw made-up charts.

IF you want to sell, sell it. I'll take some cheap coins.

[drays]

Im starting to believe this and its scaring the hell out of me. My only hope is to find a stable altcoin where we could hold all our purses in until the bear market is over. My Burst investment is also not looking good lol.

If you have any STABLE altcoin suggestions please notify us lol.

Don't rely on alts for holding value. They are good for speculation and for gaining profit on spikes, but not as a value storage. I would hold on BTC (maybe keep some ETH too, as a kind of 'hedge', not to put all eggs into just one basket). But sure, you decide.

[pinkflower]

That's exactly what OP wants to instill - fear. This kind of thiing always happens - or have you forgotten so soon?

Massive spike, followed by correction - during the dip, the bears are always saying that it will crash all the way, instead of just right above the previous peak levels (7.7k in this case), and draw made-up charts.

IF you want to sell, sell it. I'll take some cheap coins.

But fear is already instilled with or without this thread. Do you really believe that he has control on the whole market by posting in this thread?

Besides, why are you mad? This is a natural reaction after a massive bull market. But its still scary lol.