2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[calem]

Tiny deposits into the addresses.. Why pay 50 odd bucks to move a few cents into a million dollar account? Strange.. http://gaelb.alwaysdata.net/MTgox_watch_CW/index.html

[calem]

Someones having a joke I think...

[--DarkSecrets--]

FUDs everywhere but i don't think it will happen because bitcoin is already mainstream. The demand of people for bitcoin and other cryptos are now higher than before since more people are also aware about bitcoin's value, usage and success.

Don't be surprised instead get ready with any possible market movements and we must take the opportunity than to stress ourselves in this crypto crash. Somebody says also that Elliot wave is not finish and if it breaks down the support more likely it will be the complete cycle of this wave.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand?

Should the Elliott Wave projection continue as anticipated, then there is a strong possibility that the high of 9990 (Bitfinex) set on 12-MAR-2018 is of quite significance in the following regard:

i. 9990 is just 46 points shy from 9946 which represents the 50% Fibonnaci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market. Either side of this key level currently defines 'bull vs bear' territory.

ii. Should 9990 present the top of a significant wave, it would suggest Bitcoin will now never revisit the psychological 10,000 level.

Hence, a short position is ordered at 9335 (±100 points); 9335 is halfway between the current wave from 9990 to 8770, details as follows:

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 9335
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)*
    STOP: 9990*
    RISK: 6%
    REWARD: 55%

   *Short-term swing traders may elect to close the position, or partially, at 7600 which represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.  
   *Personally, no stop is currently defined since pyramiding short positions from prior higher levels.

Stop-losses of currently active short positions now adjusted to 11700, i.e.

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 11253
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
    STOP: 11700
    RISK: 4.70%
    REWARD: 62%

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 10900
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
    STOP: 11700
    RISK: 8.10%
    REWARD: 60%

Elliott Wave speculative model, indicative of price and structure, not time:

[muf18]

So no target at 2500$? Now at 1000$?
Isn't it a little streched?
I mean yeah, we should be really at 1K$, but btc always seemed to exaggerated move to the upside.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

So no target at 2500$? Now at 1000$?
Isn't it a little streched?
I mean yeah, we should be really at 1K$, but btc always seemed to exaggerated move to the upside.

Projecting between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019, so $1000 to $1500 is the average.
Quite a while away yet, so projections shall be adjusted as the waves develop during the journey.

[BMG86]

Fare Thee Well Ten Thousand?

Should the Elliott Wave projection continue as anticipated, then there is a strong possibility that the high of 9990 (Bitfinex) set on 12-MAR-2018 is of quite significance in the following regard:

i. 9990 is just 46 points shy from 9946 which represents the 50% Fibonnaci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market. Either side of this key level currently defines 'bull vs bear' territory.

ii. Should 9990 present the top of a significant wave, it would suggest Bitcoin will now never revisit the psychological 10,000 level.

Hence, a short position is ordered at 9335 (±100 points); 9335 is halfway between the current wave from 9990 to 8770, details as follows:

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 9335
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)*
    STOP: 9990*
    RISK: 6%
    REWARD: 55%

   *Short-term swing traders may elect to close the position, or partially, at 7600 which represents 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.  
   *Personally, no stop is currently defined since pyramiding short positions from prior higher levels.

Stop-losses of currently active short positions now adjusted to 11700, i.e.

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 11253
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
    STOP: 11700
    RISK: 4.70%
    REWARD: 62%

    BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
    OPEN: 10900
    CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
    STOP: 11700
    RISK: 8.10%
    REWARD: 60%

Elliott Wave speculative model, indicative of price and structure, not time:

While I do agree with you on your bearish view, is it really fair to conclude bitcoin will never hit $10k again? I mean if bitcoin is a life long asset, what's  to say that we may see that price 5, 10, or even 30 years from now? Yes short term I don't think we'll see such high prices. But nobody knows what the future holds for any asset.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

While I do agree with you on your bearish view, is it really fair to conclude bitcoin will never hit $10k again? I mean if bitcoin is a life long asset, what's  to say that we may see that price 5, 10, or even 30 years from now? Yes short term I don't think we'll see such high prices. But nobody knows what the future holds for any asset.

—If the costs of mining begin to outweigh, then Bitcoin could cease to exist along with the current generation of other cryptocurrencies.
—Not all speculative asset classes have survived their respective bubble bursts, especially non-tangible ones.
—Technology, algorithms, software & hardware are short-cycle lifespan industries, subjected to rapid price depreciation and obsolescence.
—If Bitcoin does survive, price volatility would have to subside for adoption, and it must begin to behave like a stable currency as opposed to boom-bust cycles akin to a speculative
asset class. Therefore, its success as a currency and survival would be paradoxically tied to no further parabolic price appreciation curves.
—Cicso, the darling of dotcom stocks, the backbone of the Internet, has yet to recover from its parabolic price collapse 20 years on; chart below...

[muf18]

I think that real big speculators, where accumulating for a very long time BTC, when they discovered it (after crash in 2014), the biggest volume is on the last month of 2015 (december), and they later started to accumulate some alts, and then started these whole pumping in 2017 march.

It's just unbelivable, that it was kick-started, just like that. There were a little positive news, but current levels are ridiculous, to the technology, we have, and everbody know about it.
It has to be like that.

[drays]

What a shitshow this tread has became. Utter nonsence starts to prevail here, phases like

—If the costs of mining begin to outweigh, then Bitcoin could cease to exist along with the current generation of other cryptocurrencies.

are completely laughable. There were multiple times when costs of mining outweigh the usd profits, but Bitcoin survived it. Something tells me the OP will cease to exist much sooner, than Bitcoin will do. Its worth to note also that cost of mining varies for everyone. If costs begin to outweigh for some of the miners, they will give up, leaving more space for others. This will change nothing for Bitcoin itself though, just difficulty will drop a bit.

This guy knows stock markets well, but he is obviously a complete noob in crypto, with little understanding of how this technology works. Just a passer-by, who decided to make some money on crypto, before returning to the stuff he used to work with. We'll see how Bitcoin treats such unwanted guests, for whom all "assets" are the same - just three-letter combinations on a chart.

In general, comparing Cisco stocks or any other stocks of a regular company, to a worldwide self-sustainable asset, is a nonsence.

You choose your prophets. Now enjoy the ones you chose  

P.S. But well, OP, continue to seed the panic. We need people like you, so Bitcoin could drop deeper and bounce harder - to punch in the face of those who short it.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

What a shitshow this tread has became. Utter nonsence starts to prevail here, phases like

—If the costs of mining begin to outweigh, then Bitcoin could cease to exist along with the current generation of other cryptocurrencies.

are completely laughable. There were multiple times when costs of mining outweigh the usd profits, but Bitcoin survived that. Something tells me the OP will cease to exist much sooner, than Bitcoin will do.
This guy knows stock markets well, but he is obviously a complete noob in crypto, with little understanding of how this technology works.
In general, comparing Cisco stocks or any other stocks of a regular company, to a worldwide self-sustainable asset, is a nonsence.
You chose your prophets. Enjoy the ones you choose  
P.S. But well, OP, continue to seed the panic. We need people like you, so Bitcoin could drop deeper, and bounce harder - and hit right in the face of those who short it.

Since inception, the price of Bitcoin and mining complexity have been been parabolically twined.
However, since late Dec 2017, price has more than halved whilst the difficulty of mining remains increasingly complex.
Is this divergence between price/complexity sustainable economics, whether altruistic in pursuit or incentivised?
In other words, would you work harder and for longer whilst your salary decreased? Ask the Virginia coal miners.


 

[LegendOF45]

Everyone claims that the price of 2017 is a maximum of only $ 2500, but what happens more than $ 15k even the price could reach $ 19k, there is no prediction that guarantee true, everything is a coincidence.

[drays]

What a shitshow this tread has became. Utter nonsence starts to prevail here, phases like

—If the costs of mining begin to outweigh, then Bitcoin could cease to exist along with the current generation of other cryptocurrencies.

are completely laughable. There were multiple times when costs of mining outweigh the usd profits, but Bitcoin survived that. Something tells me the OP will cease to exist much sooner, than Bitcoin will do.
This guy knows stock markets well, but he is obviously a complete noob in crypto, with little understanding of how this technology works.
In general, comparing Cisco stocks or any other stocks of a regular company, to a worldwide self-sustainable asset, is a nonsence.
You chose your prophets. Enjoy the ones you choose  
P.S. But well, OP, continue to seed the panic. We need people like you, so Bitcoin could drop deeper, and bounce harder - and hit right in the face of those who short it.

Since inception, the price of Bitcoin and mining complexity have been been parabolically twined.
However, since late Dec 2017, price has more than halved whilst the difficulty of mining remains increasingly complex.
Is this divergence between price/complexity sustainable economics, whether altruistic in pursuit or incentivised?
In other words, would you work harder and for longer whilst your salary decreased? Ask the Virginia coal miners.

Well, this is easily explainable. In the end of 2017 the price has increased way too fast, and miners could not follow price immediately. In other words - price can increase 5x in a month, but there is just not enough mining equipment in the world, to join in as fast and to increase the difficulty accordingly. That's why mining became extremely profitable, and the diff increases slowly, but persistently - just because even the current decreased price is still very attractive considering the current difficulty level. The number of miners and the corresponding diff will slowly (relatively slowly, meaning - as fast as mining industry can produce and employ new mining equipment) continue to rise until the diff matches the price. Then, if price falls, the diff will slowly decrease, and then start again being to be parabolically twinned with price.

Of course not everyone will continue to work harder and for longer with that "salary decrease". Some will cease to work, and that will create an opportunity for others, who will continue.
The only effect on Bitcoin will be just a little bit less network security, due to somewhat decreased hashrate (which is not a real problem for now, as it was much less back then, and still secure enough).

[muf18]

Well for all haters of steve - look at charts now, and see, that people are realizing what's going on.
It was a huge pump by big whales, which exits markets. Guess what happen next.

These markets were highly manipulated, people just wanted to keep being blind about it.

Everyone claims that the price of 2017 is a maximum of only $ 2500, but what happens more than $ 15k even the price could reach $ 19k, there is no prediction that guarantee true, everything is a coincidence.

Your broken english is sweet, as well as, most of these spam posts on bitcointalk, but nobody could predicted, how high can manipulation take the price, and especially, when later in the process joined cheerful crowd of noobs waiting to be slaughtered.

I suspect that 2500$ can be the target for 2018, and we can go lower than that, but 1800-3000$ is for me target, for now.

[drays]

Yes, price is sinking, and 4K and maybe even 2K is quite possible short-mid term, but that has nothing to do with Steve and his charts. The same people who pumped it, now are drawing the "picture of crash" on markets.
Interesting enough, recently masterluk told it would never drop to 5K and below, but now even he is unsure and nervous. Panic is taking over. We'll see, I would be pleasantly surprised if his initial prediction turns to be right this time too.

My somewhat sceptic perception of OPs posts is not because he predicts that deep correction (that part is ok, I am also waiting for the lows to buy back in), but because he is calling complete Bitcoin crash, without understanding the basics of Bitcoin tech, and appreciating its importance for the future of financial system - and I specifically mean Bitcoin's importance, not just the importance of this technology. That reminds me of banksters' approach - they may praise the blockchain tech (because its just a tech), but they hate Bitcoin (because its the one cryptocurrency which could damage them).

Nothing personal though, OP seems to be quite a well-conducted and intelligent person.

[muf18]

In reality none of the purposes, which merits to Bitcoin and it's first blockchain implentation, aren't the real reasons of this meteoric rise in prices.
BTC don't need to be at 10K, to be appreciated, it can be as well at 100USD, or 10USD.

The purpose is decentralization, and it's a marvellous purpose, but how the hell we achieve this decentralization, if tokens are traded on centralized exchanges, so easily manipulated, because of fragmentation of them?

There is even less support for merchandise using Bitcoin, than it was in 2015-16, just because many big companies withdraw it's support, due to so volatile nature, it had in 2017.

So why we should buy up/stock up on token, which currently has no purpose - apart from buying up with it alts, which are trying to create some purpose, and probably will replace BTC, when they will be just integrate on exchanges (just it can be not this generation, but next generation cryptoassets).
It's just a speculating on a ultra volatile asset.

Bitcoin blockchain was one of the breakthrough, for decentralization purpose of database.

Unit - digital asset on blockchain - BTC - isn't achieving anything, as it's now.
And if people from BTC community says anything about "fair distrubution", I'm laughing - how can you have fair distrubution, when you have for 4 years special rewards, then halving it, and then again halving, so give most of it to the early-adopters, and people, which know about (so effectively centralizing capital), and let other beat themselves up for fractions of BTC.
It should have at least 10-15 years period of normal emission, if it was trying to achieving it, until it would show/appear itself from darkness of internet.


It's fine to speculate on it - it really is, just we must name that it's penny stocks speculation (because the same as with penny stocks, there is no regulation so capital is flowing freely, and without any restrications, but also it comes with it p'n'd, and clear manipulations).

Btw. - saying something this stupid, as "it will never be less than..." is really saying a lot of, about this person. TA clearly shows, we can certainly break through 5K, but steve or anybody don't state it will pass it, just act accordingly, fractals and models from previous experiance can be wrong, but we don't have any other method to predict the future, and people are surprisingly always behaving in the terms of creating bubble and joining them.

[UnDerDoG81]

This whole thread smells like government agents spreading fear for no reason. Why would somebody waste all of his time here if he has no bitcoins, has no interest and dont believe in it? Every average Joe makes predictions and is right at some point.

Nobody can know the future of Bitcoin.

[drays]

BTC don't need to be at 10K, to be appreciated, it can be as well at 100USD, or 10USD.

You are mistaken here. There are 7 billion people in the world now, and only less than 21 million Bitcoins.
It means we have more than 333 persons per one Bitcoin.

It could cost as low as 10-100 USD only either if people don't know about it, or if they don't want to have it. Years ago it was 10-100 USD, because not many people knew about it; but now, when a big percentage of world population is made aware of its existence, having such price would mean complete failure, not appreciation.

If Bitcoin is to be really appreciated and used (for any purpose - being it currency or value storage, or anything else), those 333 persons would compete with each other to get that 1 Bitcoin. How much 333 average people could have to spend on something they need and appreciate? I am personally not ready to answer that question right now, but some demographic research would help here. In any case - way more than 10-100 of vapourware printed by some country to cover its growing needs and enormous debts.

[fabiorem]

This whole thread smells like government agents spreading fear for no reason.

It's not only this thread.

There are a lot of government and banking shills in this forum. Make no mistake, they are paid to spread FUD.

And most people are biting it. That's why we are going to 2k.

When this bear market is over, there will be only two types of users: we the hodlers, and they, the banksters. The average Joe will be out of it.

[d5000]

BTC don't need to be at 10K, to be appreciated, it can be as well at 100USD, or 10USD.

You are mistaken here. There are 7 billion people in the world now, and only less than 21 million Bitcoins.
It means we have more than 333 persons per one Bitcoin.

It could cost as low as 10-100 USD only either if people don't know about it, or if they don't want to have it. Years ago it was 10-100 USD, because not many people knew about it; but now, when a big percentage of world population is made aware of its existence, having such price would mean complete failure, not appreciation.

If Bitcoin is to be really appreciated and used (for any purpose - being it currency or value storage, or anything else), those 333 persons would compete with each other to get that 1 Bitcoin. How much 333 average people could have to spend on something they need and appreciate? I am personally not ready to answer that question right now, but some demographic research would help here. In any case - way more than 10-100 of vapourware printed by some country to cover its growing needs and enormous debts.

You are falsely assuming that Bitcoin can only be successful if everybody is using it, and that everybody "wants to have it".

Bitcoin can be perfectly successful as a "niche currency". Personally, I don't think it will ever get more than 10% of the world population as users, and that would be a huge success. I personally would like it to be valued at $10K or more and used by tens or hundreds of millions. But it would work perfectly if it is used only for certain purposes like remittances and e-commerce and valued at $100 USD.

In this case it would be considered a "failure" for the get-rich-quick guys. But that is a problem of the current dominant user group: speculators. A relative recent "quantity theory of money"-based research of a forum member (read his Steemit post here) had as its result that if Bitcoin was a currency and it was used as it is used now (3-5 tx/s) its QTM-based value should be at $200-250.

Now the price is much higher because of speculators estimating a huge future usage (as currency or "digital gold"), and thus a higher price, and that's OK too. But it doesn't mean it has to follow these expectations in the future. In an alternative scenario, speculators could sell almost anything, anarchists would again become the dominant user group, the price would be much lower, and that would be fine too.

And the current "everybody wants to have it" frenzy is only due to Bitcoin's growth. If the price evolution becomes flatter (e.g. like a fiat currency) because of higher adoption and less volatility, there would be less incentive to buy Bitcoin to make profit.