2018 Crypto Crash (Elliott Wave): April Fools’ Rallyhttps://redd.it/89jqyeThe Easter Ebb saw Bitcoin markets sell-off 30% from the Equinox 21-MAR-2018 high, to the lows of April Fools’ on 01-APR-2018.
Declines of such magnitude have been tracked as Minor degree Elliott Waves; and the following are previous such examples which have occurred so far, since the crypto bear market began on 17-DEC-2017:
21% — 06-JAN-2018 to 11-JAN-2018
38% — 13-JAN-2018 to 17-JAN-2018
24% — 20-JAN-2018 to 23-JAN-2018
50% — 28-JAN-2018 to 06-FEB-2018
28% — 05-MAR-2018 to 09-MAR-2018
26% — 12-MAR-2018 to 18-MAR-2018
30% — 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018
Given the aforementioned wave percentages, it suggests the decline of Minor degree waves in the Bitcoin bear market are approx 31% on average.
An April Fools’ rally since 01-APR-2018 is currently underway, which is expected to retrace between a Fibonacci 38.2% to 50% of the 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline:
@7477: Fibonacci 38.2% retrace of the 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline.
@7801: Fibonacci 50% retrace of the 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline.
@7599: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of the entire Bitcoin market.
The average of the three aforementioned Fibonacci levels is 7626 (Bitfinex quoted prices).
Given the market has now already retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% of the 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline, and barring any wave subdivisions, it could suggest the April Fools’ rally is complete.
Upon completion of the April Fools’ rally, another 30%-40% sell-off leg is expected to target approx 4257, which represents the Fibonacci 78.6% retrace of the entire Bitcoin market.
Short position ordered as follows:
BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7400
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
STOP: 7801*
RISK: 9%
REWARD: 42%
*Should the market drop below 7262, then the stop-loss is adjusted to the previous local high.
Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price & structure, not time; as follows: