2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[drays]

With short interest in Bitcoin now breaking the highs of Oct 2017, it appears the public are now beginning to capitulate and offloading HODL positions driven by margin calls; and the reality of the bubble bursting is only now being grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.

Heh, what an excitement you have there. It feels like you are going to open some champagne to celebrate.

[1714128937]

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[btc1]

Hahaha it is funny to see that there are some people who really enjoy to see their investment going down.

We all knew that the price needed to go down, but not by this way.. came on, more than 70% down from the all time high, this is desperating.

With short interest in Bitcoin now breaking the highs of Oct 2017, it appears the public are now beginning to capitulate and offloading HODL positions driven by margin calls; and the reality of the bubble bursting is only now being grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.

Heh, what an excitement you have there. It feels like you are going to open some champagne to celebrate.

[drays]

Hahaha it is funny to see that there are some people who really enjoy to see their investment going down.

We all knew that the price needed to go down, but not by this way.. came on, more than 70% down from the all time high, this is desperating.

Not sure whom do you mean. If you mean the OP, he does not have any investment in Bitcoin. He is proudly shorting it only.
If you mean me, then I do not enjoy the decline, just am keeping calm and watching with interest to find the new entry point. The current value of your investment means nothing, if you are not forced to cash out right now.

I have seen many similar cycles in altcoin markets, and found one thing about declining crypto markets: if the coin is worthless (shitcoin), it could fade off forever; but if it is of any worth, it will return with flying colors. Now with BTC the scale is different, but the pattern is similar. I believe BTC has a lot of merit, so I keep my position.

It all comes down to the vision: if you trust Bitcoin potential, then just enjoy this ride, and use this chance to enter at a great price, or to accumulate more to fill your position. I guess during the 15-20K 'moon' you were blaming yourself for not having bought enough BTC, right? So here you have the chance to fix your mistake.

If you don't have trust in Bitcoin potential however, then... well, dump. It would be painful (especially if you entered during the last bull run with the anticipation of fast profit), but that would be better for you, as its not healthy to keep something you don't have trust in, during the bear market we possibly have ahead. The only advice I can give in that case - if you decided to dump, then probably wait for one more bounce to exit instead of dumping on the dip. But well, thats just an advice.

I am not an all-knowing sage, and I might easily be mistaken. But one thing seems to me the right one to do: decide what you feel inside and try to do the thing which lets your mind live in peace. And don't watch those markets too often, if you are not a pro trader.

[deepcoreotc]

Good days for shorting looks like. I wish I had learned to trade earlier, would've made so much more profit...

[Afrikoin]

Loving this thread already!

Great calls guys! I just found out about this thread.

But i had a similar EW expectation from back in December.

Crap at all who say EW is voodoo

Allow me to share

[Afrikoin]

So lemme get this straight. That 9 days in mid-November is the same degree 4 to the two year bear market that was 2?


In blue... 

Doubt it

As we've seen over the years

Analysts using EW always have different counts.

Would love to see an alternative one.

But as ive also learnt over the years, my counts too could be wrong as i have before

[muf18]

With short interest in Bitcoin now breaking the highs of Oct 2017, it appears the public are now beginning to capitulate and offloading HODL positions driven by margin calls; and the reality of the bubble bursting is only now being grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.

Heh, what an excitement you have there. It feels like you are going to open some champagne to celebrate.

After a good trade anyone would probably open a champagne, or at least beer to drink for a good spot on.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Crypto Crash (Elliott Wave): April Fools’ Rally
https://redd.it/89jqye

The Easter Ebb saw Bitcoin markets sell-off 30% from the Equinox 21-MAR-2018 high, to the lows of April Fools’ on 01-APR-2018.

Declines of such magnitude have been tracked as Minor degree Elliott Waves; and the following are previous such examples which have occurred so far, since the crypto bear market began on 17-DEC-2017:

21% — 06-JAN-2018 to 11-JAN-2018
38% — 13-JAN-2018 to 17-JAN-2018
24% — 20-JAN-2018 to 23-JAN-2018
50% — 28-JAN-2018 to 06-FEB-2018
28% — 05-MAR-2018 to 09-MAR-2018
26% — 12-MAR-2018 to 18-MAR-2018
30% — 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018

Given the aforementioned wave percentages, it suggests the decline of Minor degree waves in the Bitcoin bear market are approx 31% on average.

An April Fools’ rally since 01-APR-2018 is currently underway, which is expected to retrace between a Fibonacci 38.2% to 50% of the 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline:

@7477: Fibonacci 38.2% retrace of the 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline.
@7801: Fibonacci 50% retrace of the 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline.
@7599: Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of the entire Bitcoin market.

The average of the three aforementioned Fibonacci levels is 7626 (Bitfinex quoted prices).

Given the market has now already retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% of the 21-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline, and barring any wave subdivisions, it could suggest the April Fools’ rally is complete.

Upon completion of the April Fools’ rally, another 30%-40% sell-off leg is expected to target approx 4257, which represents the Fibonacci 78.6% retrace of the entire Bitcoin market.

Short position ordered as follows:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7400
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
STOP: 7801*
RISK: 9%
REWARD: 42%

*Should the market drop below 7262, then the stop-loss is adjusted to the previous local high.

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price & structure, not time; as follows:

[figmentofmyass]

Doubt it

As we've seen over the years

Analysts using EW always have different counts.

Would love to see an alternative one.

But as ive also learnt over the years, my counts too could be wrong as i have before

but when have you ever seen a legit count where wave 2 = 1 years time and wave 4 = 1 weeks time? technically, wave 4 has no minimum time constraint (only maximum time constraint). but the proportions on that count were beyond atrocious.

this is not masterluc's chart, but he referenced it:

latest from masterluc

he---correctly, i believe---has labeled the 2017 blow-off as a primary wave 3. the potential wave 4 count above is still valid, although i'm skeptical given the price action over the past few weeks. mid-2013 fractal still feels right to me.

[Afrikoin]

Doubt it

As we've seen over the years

Analysts using EW always have different counts.

Would love to see an alternative one.

But as ive also learnt over the years, my counts too could be wrong as i have before

but when have you ever seen a legit count where wave 2 = 1 years time and wave 4 = 1 weeks time? technically, wave 4 has no minimum time constraint (only maximum time constraint). but the proportions on that count were beyond atrocious.

this is not masterluc's chart, but he referenced it:

latest from masterluc

he---correctly, i believe---has labeled the 2017 blow-off as a primary wave 3. the potential wave 4 count above is still valid, although i'm skeptical given the price action over the past few weeks. mid-2013 fractal still feels right to me.

do you have mid-2013 charts/fractals?

I came in actively into crypto in late 2013. So was never keen on charts. I dont have the 'feel' some of you have.

Feel is important. Right now my feel from 2014 and 2015 mean i am less panicky or trigger happy.

[d5000]

I agree with the prediction of an "April Fools' rally", but I think it will go a bit higher than xxxx123abcxxxx's prediction.

The reason is that it seems that confidence is building up again after the second time Bitcoin touched the $6400-6500 area in few days, and bears weren't able to drive the price lower (not even near the former low of ~$6000). However, to confirm this short-term rally the price must go over $7500 to confirm a short-term double bottom.

In my opinion, this "April Fool's rally" can go as high as $9000-10000, but not (significantly) higher. The resistance at that point will be too harsh, as there is still few new capital entering the market, and the temptation to sell will be high.

Also, I'm not at all convinced that the price will see the regions around $1000 again. For now, we're pretty closely following the 2014 pattern (only in a slightly accelerated pattern) and that would mean that the lowest point of this bear market should be in the region of 15% of the current ATH (in this case, around $2500-3000; at $3000 there is a support point because of an earlier high).

[g-uid]

"at $3000 there is a support point because of an earlier high"

Can you clarify what you mean here please? I don't understand why an earlier high makes $3000 a support point.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Rising price has now reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 03-APR to 06-APR decline.
In addition, price appears to be creating negative divergence with declining RSI on the hourly.
Was expecting a run-up towards +7500; however, weakening technicals are suggesting the rally is losing momentum.

The following additional short position has been ordered:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7100
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 7510
RISK: 5.8%
REWARD: 40%




Stop-loss of previous short position adjusted as follows:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7400
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
STOP: 7801 7510
RISK: 9% 1.5%
REWARD: 42%

Stop-loss of other short positions adjusted as follows to zero risk trades:

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 11788 9200
RISK: 8.15% 0%
REWARD: 60%

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 11253
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 11788 9200
RISK: 4.75% 0%
REWARD: 62%

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9335
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 9990 9200
RISK: 6% 0%
REWARD: 55%

[alyssa85]

Hahaha it is funny to see that there are some people who really enjoy to see their investment going down.

He's a speculator and has probably gone short himself - so of course he'll be excited if he is making money from his short.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

4th Dimension: Manipulation, Cartel,  Price Suppression is the Goal

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@supercrypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-price-suppression-is-the-goal

[drays]

4th Dimension: Manipulation, Cartel,  Price Suppression is the Goal

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@supercrypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-price-suppression-is-the-goal

Do you seriously believe in this? That theory states the market movements are not natural and market is artificially suppressed. It completely contradicts to all your original views on 'natural' bubble burst, isn't it?

The result of this manipulation may look similar to 'bubble burst' based on Elliot model, but only because "they" want it to look like that. I'm not stating this theory is correct (doubt so), but I am really surprised to see you quoting it. Did you change your views?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

4th Dimension: Manipulation, Cartel,  Price Suppression is the Goal

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@supercrypto1/4th-dimension-bitcoin-manipulation-cartel-price-suppression-is-the-goal

Do you seriously believe in this? That theory states the market movements are not natural and market is artificially suppressed. It completely contradicts all your original views on 'natural' bubble burst, isn't it?

The result of this manipulation may look similar to 'bubble burst' based on Elliot model, but only because "they" want it to look like that. I'm not stating this theory is correct (doubt so), but I am really surprised to see you quoting it. Did you change your views?

Personally tend to be critical of 'conspiracy theories' and so don't believe such a cartel exists —or would like to think it doesn't exist.
However, the article does point out a true correlation between the launch of futures trading and price depreciation which is interesting.

Not really bothered whether or not a cartel exists, either way all human psychology is already supposedly built into the Elliott Wave model. So if one can correctly interpret the waves, then just simply go with the flow.

[muf18]

For now we had a really major pump that have cleared shorts away

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Quite the spike up this morning in Bitcoin, and quite unexpected!

From the 6440 (Bitfinex) low set on April Fools’ 01-APR-2018, the Bitcoin market rallied 17% and then gave up 13% of those gains before trading sideways in a choppy 10-day affair. Today, the market broke out of that range and has thus far rallied 20%.

The April Fools’ rally from 6440 was expected to be in the range of approx 20%. However, with today’s spike, the rally peaked at almost 26% thus far.

Doesn’t appear to be a news driven price spike which is quite unusual. However, with waning sentiment and short interest at all-time highs; it appears the price spike has been exacerbated by a short-covering rally squeezing out bearish positions.

Despite the magnitude of the rally, the price action from the lows of 01-APR-2018 are still within the parameters of an ongoing b-wave with no structural change to the Elliott Wave model thus far.

Currently expecting any additional upside to be contained within approx 8132 which represents the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from 21-MAR to 01-APR.

7600 represents the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the entire Bitcoin market; and so, taking out that price point on the daily close would be an initial sign to suggest fading bullish momentum.

Bitcoin remains overall bearish until 9200 is taken out to the upside.

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:



The following two short positions have been closed at a net loss of 7.3%, ouch!

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7100
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 7510
RISK: 5.8%
REWARD: 40%

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7400
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
STOP: 7801 7510
RISK: 9% 1.5%
REWARD: 42%

[deepcoreotc]

For now we had a really major pump that have cleared shorts away

Cleared or made more shorts? Personally I made one quich trade where I shorted BTC with 10x leverage.