2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[jbreher]

Quite the spike up this morning in Bitcoin, and quite unexpected!

Is it unexpected? Really?

[muf18]

Quite the spike up this morning in Bitcoin, and quite unexpected!

From the 6440 (Bitfinex) low set on April Fools’ 01-APR-2018, the Bitcoin market rallied 17% and then gave up 13% of those gains before trading sideways in a choppy 10-day affair. Today, the market broke out of that range and has thus far rallied 20%.

The April Fools’ rally from 6440 was expected to be in the range of approx 20%. However, with today’s spike, the rally peaked at almost 26% thus far.

Doesn’t appear to be a news driven price spike which is quite unusual. However, with waning sentiment and short interest at all-time highs; it appears the price spike has been exacerbated by a short-covering rally squeezing out bearish positions.

Despite the magnitude of the rally, the price action from the lows of 01-APR-2018 are still within the parameters of an ongoing b-wave with no structural change to the Elliott Wave model thus far.

Currently expecting any additional upside to be contained within approx 8132 which represents the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from 21-MAR to 01-APR.

7600 represents the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the entire Bitcoin market; and so, taking out that price point on the daily close would be an initial sign to suggest fading bullish momentum.

Bitcoin remains overall bearish until 9200 is taken out to the upside.

Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:



The following two short positions have been closed at a net loss of 7.3%, ouch!

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7100
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 7510
RISK: 5.8%
REWARD: 40%

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7400
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000 ?)
STOP: 7801 7510
RISK: 9% 1.5%
REWARD: 42%

Well pump is going hard and we already have passed 8100 level. It's lol, how much money have they pump these 2days to get it back up, unbelievable.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Bitcoin currently appears to be finding resistance at approx 8132 (Bitfinex) which represents the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the decline from 21-MAR to 01-APR.
In addition, yesterday's rising price spike is creating negative divergence with declining RSI on the 1-hr, 30-min and 15-min timeframes.
The Fibonacci 50% retracement of the decline from 21-MAR to 01-APR is at 7810 —taking out this level ought to signify weakening uptrend momentum.

Ordered the following short positions, awaiting execution and further market development...

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7810
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8226
RISK: 5.3%
REWARD: 45%

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8012
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8226
RISK: 2.65%
REWARD: 47%

[Micky25]

would you mind to give a step by step guidance how to set up such shorts at Bitfinex?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

would you mind to give a step by step guidance how to set up such shorts at Bitfinex?

1. https://support.bitfinex.com/hc/en-us/articles/115004555165-Intro-to-Margin-Trading
2. https://youtu.be/1I50Zbz2csc

[muf18]

Bitcoin currently appears to be finding resistance at approx 8132 (Bitfinex) which represents the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the decline from 21-MAR to 01-APR.
In addition, yesterday's rising price spike is creating negative divergence with declining RSI on the 1-hr, 30-min and 15-min timeframes.
The Fibonacci 50% retracement of the decline from 21-MAR to 01-APR is at 7810 —taking out this level ought to signify weakening uptrend momentum.

Ordered the following short positions, awaiting execution and further market development...

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7810
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8226
RISK: 5.3%
REWARD: 45%

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8012
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8226
RISK: 2.65%
REWARD: 47%

Well for me it's not facing resistance just consolidation, and further upward movement, this breakout was manipulated and stupid, but seems others have jumped on it like it would be some kind of miracle.

[kronos123]

With a growth of almost 20% in 24-36, meeting with a significant resistance (about 8200), a rsi in oversold and the weekend coming, I think bitcoin will have a slight retracement of a 7-8%, towards the support of 7500-7600 ...... maybe then will start again strong!

[muf18]

Manipulation continues... As I told, I think it will be forced uptrend, they are really hard trying to force it right now.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Since the April Fool’s low of 6245 (Bitfinex), the Bitcoin market has rallied 30% thus far.

The upward price spike on 12-APR saw a 20% gain in a single day. The rapid move caught the bulls by surprise with the majority not participating as indicated by the BTCUSDLONGS index, which declined on the day instead of surging upwards to correlate with price action. It appears the price spike has been exacerbated by a short-covering rally squeezing out bearish positions as indicated by the BTCUSDSHORTS index which collapsed 40%.

Quite an April Fool’s which has fooled both the bulls & bears. As of yet, there still doesn’t appear to be any news correlation as a driver for the price spike which is quite unusual.

It was initially assumed that the rally from the 01-APR low was retracing the decline from 21-MAR, and the magnitude of such a wave limited to circa 20%. However, the magnitude of the rally has thus far exceeded the mid-March rally which saw price appreciate 27%. Consequently, it appears the current rally is actually retracing the entire decline from 05-MAR to 01-APR; and subsequently, a degree adjustment to the Elliott Wave model is required.

From the 6245 low set on 01-APR, the Bitcoin market rallied 17% and then gave up 13% of those gains before trading sideways in a choppy 10-day affair. On 12-APR, the market broke out of that range and has thus far rallied 25%. A net gain of approx 30% so far. The meandering price action prior to the breakout price spike has been identified as a Symmetrical Triangle pattern where consolidating and tightening price would give way to a breakout.

The following are Fibonacci retracements of the 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline of where the current rally may terminate:

Lower Range
@8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
@9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.

Upper Range
@9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
@9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.

At this stage, the rally is expected to complete within the aforementioned Lower Range targets, where the average is 8752. Currently, taking out 8064 would indicate weakening upside momentum.

Speculative guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time:

[lingwistiko]

So much for FUD if what we're seeing on the graph is the start of the bullish pattern. I believe that majority of us here is waiting for this to happen and hopefully it will continue until it breaks its highest price recorded.

[muf18]

So much for FUD if what we're seeing on the graph is the start of the bullish pattern. I believe that majority of us here is waiting for this to happen and hopefully it will continue until it breaks its highest price recorded.

It's not fud, just a TA. Learn to at least know trading patterns, and dont behave like, "I believe it's a bullish pattern" from 2 clearly manipulated candles.

[exstasie]

So much for FUD if what we're seeing on the graph is the start of the bullish pattern. I believe that majority of us here is waiting for this to happen and hopefully it will continue until it breaks its highest price recorded.

It's not fud, just a TA. Learn to at least know trading patterns, and dont behave like, "I believe it's a bullish pattern" from 2 clearly manipulated candles.

TA accounts for manipulation. TA accounts for everything. It's all about the candles.

The fact is, bears made several fishing expeditions down over the last few weeks and bulls rejected them every time. There's now a clear A&E double bottom about to print on the 1-week chart.

I'm not saying we're in a bull market; I think this next few months could pan out as an epic bull trap. But I would avoid dismissing long term bullish patterns on the basis of "manipulation".

[drays]

TA accounts for manipulation. TA accounts for everything. It's all about the candles.

TA accounts for smaller-scale manipulation - the one made by regular market players.

But I don't believe any TA could account for a big-scale manipulation, possibly done by huge players with big and long-term plans, who rarely drop in.

[d5000]

The fact is, bears made several fishing expeditions down over the last few weeks and bulls rejected them every time. There's now a clear A&E double bottom about to print on the 1-week chart.

I'm not saying we're in a bull market; I think this next few months could pan out as an epic bull trap. But I would avoid dismissing long term bullish patterns on the basis of "manipulation".

I think you're right here. Short-term sentiment has changed since the $6500 lows were tested several times. Now it's time for a little bullish "intermezzo". @muf18, you're a bit too permabearish as of now

The price continues to follow the 2014 pattern pretty closely. In the case it continues to do so, then in about 3-4 weeks we will see the top of the current upmove, probably somewhere near $10000, maybe even $11K or $12K. This will be the "b" wave I've waited for a bit earlier, but now I think the upmove in February/March was still part of "a". If this is true, then in July approximately, we'll see the next test of the $6000-7000 levels, and it's likely that then it will be broken, at least for some months.

I don't believe price will establish itself again above the $10K mark this year because there is not a massive influx of fresh cash as far as I know (I know that some media reported investments by Soros and other financial magnates, but the same thing happened in 2014 and it couldn't stop the bear); so it probably will be a short-lived hype like the $700 mini-bubble we saw in May 2014. If $12K are really crossed, then I'll begin to believe again in a longer-term trend reversal.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Rally losing momentum?:

—Price has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
—Rising price action is creating negative divergence against declining overbought RSI on the 4-hr.

Short position activated:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8064
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8459
RISK: 4.95%
REWARD: 47%



Following trade closed, stop-loss activated:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 8012
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8226
RISK: 2.65%
REWARD: 47%

Following unactivated order cancelled:

BTCUSD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 7810
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 8226
RISK: 5.3%
REWARD: 45%

Currently active zero risk trades:

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 11788 9200
RISK: 8.15% 0%
REWARD: 60%

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 11253
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 11788 9200
RISK: 4.75% 0%
REWARD: 62%

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9335
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended, 1000?)
STOP: 9990 9200
RISK: 6% 0%
REWARD: 55%

[muf18]

The fact is, bears made several fishing expeditions down over the last few weeks and bulls rejected them every time. There's now a clear A&E double bottom about to print on the 1-week chart.

I'm not saying we're in a bull market; I think this next few months could pan out as an epic bull trap. But I would avoid dismissing long term bullish patterns on the basis of "manipulation".

I think you're right here. Short-term sentiment has changed since the $6500 lows were tested several times. Now it's time for a little bullish "intermezzo". @muf18, you're a bit too permabearish as of now

The price continues to follow the 2014 pattern pretty closely. In the case it continues to do so, then in about 3-4 weeks we will see the top of the current upmove, probably somewhere near $10000, maybe even $11K or $12K. This will be the "b" wave I've waited for a bit earlier, but now I think the upmove in February/March was still part of "a". If this is true, then in July approximately, we'll see the next test of the $6000-7000 levels, and it's likely that then it will be broken, at least for some months.

I don't believe price will establish itself again above the $10K mark this year because there is not a massive influx of fresh cash as far as I know (I know that some media reported investments by Soros and other financial magnates, but the same thing happened in 2014 and it couldn't stop the bear); so it probably will be a short-lived hype like the $700 mini-bubble we saw in May 2014. If $12K are really crossed, then I'll begin to believe again in a longer-term trend reversal.

Hm, what I said here:

Well for me it's not facing resistance just consolidation, and further upward movement, this breakout was manipulated and stupid, but seems others have jumped on it like it would be some kind of miracle.

Manipulation continues... As I told, I think it will be forced uptrend, they are really hard trying to force it right now.

You can see here - they bought a lot of btc in 1min candles, cleared shorts to have follow up effect, and then stopped.
For me it's quite clear.

[d5000]

Yep, I understand ... but a similar pattern appeared in the intermediary little "dumps". So I think that in a period of relatively low trade activity and volume, like this one, large buys and sells simply show up very "clearly" and contrast with the rest of (mostly bot-driven) movement. Bots and traders with leveraged positions (in this case, shorters) react fast to these sharp movements and then magnify them.

The last movement was very fast (20 % in a few days), so the current little backfall to 7900-8000 wasn't unexpected. I guess it can go even lower still (7500? or even 7000?) without disturbing the short-term-bullish picture.

[RodeoX]

If you divide a Fibonacci number by the total supply of bitcoins then plot it as an Elliot wave disguised as a Mandelbrot fractal you will still have no idea what the future holds.   Math!

 

[btcone111]

EOS pump then ADA pumps WITH volume.
Could be brewing a huge cup and handle which might take everything to ATH in Sept
I wouldn't be shorting this market to be honest after what I saw these few days. If anything, I would try to add some lengths if BTC falls back to around $7K with decreasing volume. The risk reward in the medium term is good. Even if BTC falls to $3K, length at $7K suffers 50% loss but next bull run assume BTC 6 times (being very conservative here) of $3K bottom will still make 150%

[muf18]

EOS pump then ADA pumps WITH volume.
Could be brewing a huge cup and handle which might take everything to ATH in Sept
I wouldn't be shorting this market to be honest after what I saw these few days. If anything, I would try to add some lengths if BTC falls back to around $7K with decreasing volume. The risk reward in the medium term is good. Even if BTC falls to $3K, length at $7K suffers 50% loss but next bull run assume BTC 6 times (being very conservative here) of $3K bottom will still make 150%

Losing 50% in any term is terrible investment. And you dont know what we can have in future.
Everybody think "moon". But 20K was on large volume, so large, that Bitcoin would have to have a real deal usage in market, not in speculation trading only. And 99% now is speculative trading, so pump and dumpers ready to take profit, when they see their pump failed. It's like pooling in cash, by people and waiting until, it starts to collapse, then fast taking out cash.