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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921619 times)
STT
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November 17, 2017, 03:51:46 AM
 #5401

Theres something to be said for simplicity especially in conclusions or statements for an audience.   The chart shows multiple frames of analysis which is confusing at best and possibly contradictory.  I find the best take is to note simple structures or sequences which may reoccur as part of a trend upwards

The BTC price nearly halved in the lead up to that first fork, taking that as a Fibonacci sequence probably has relevance even now so 423.6% of the decline from 3,000 peak places 6523 as a bullish point to hold.  3,000 itself was the bottom to September prices, the more easily observable the figure the greater the number of people likely to hold it significant I think.  So overly complex conclusions is probably self defeating especially if we have global trading and various national currencies not just dollars

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November 17, 2017, 08:25:40 AM
 #5402

This 180m TF looks like we've "potentially" exhausted out this upside episode from $5,555.00.  This may be the time down to "approximately" $4,854.86 +/- 2.3%.  Our demand is "cautiously" testing "supply."  The exchanges have to make what they can here on a dip as well; in order to liquidate some margin longs.  Once that liquidation is completed and we take her down once more, we can expect a race to $10k.



Sorry to say this but your charts are pure cancer for the eyes!!
Several other people have already told you that, please open your own thread!
What are you trying to achieve here?
Ignore button activated.
Damn, based on that picure it looks like that i dont belong here.
Just want to drop this :


LOL. That made me laugh.
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November 19, 2017, 03:00:13 PM
 #5403

Vanga made four posts today.  And the language is crazy.
I think just reading his stuff, even if I don't really understand it, puts me in a better frame of mind.

Anybody know what he said?
itod
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November 19, 2017, 03:28:55 PM
 #5404

Vanga made four posts today.  And the language is crazy.
I think just reading his stuff, even if I don't really understand it, puts me in a better frame of mind.

Anybody know what he said?

More philosophical stuff than market expectations. "Honey badger don't care" like in English, mostly regarding BCH attack on Bitcoin, emphasizing how dangerous it was and how easily it was successfully pushed aside. Masterluc is obviously not for big blocks.
neilol-real
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November 19, 2017, 11:51:21 PM
 #5405

"We go for 20k on the corpses of bears."
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November 20, 2017, 03:56:08 PM
 #5406

"We go for 20k on the corpses of bears."

Let's see if he will be right or not. Still some way to go.
When we reach $10k it will be very important to see how the markets reacts.
Big profit taking and correction or not??!!
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November 20, 2017, 04:01:52 PM
 #5407

"We go for 20k on the corpses of bears."

Let's see if he will be right or not. Still some way to go.
When we reach $10k it will be very important to see how the markets reacts.
Big profit taking and correction or not??!!

Seems like he thinks more on a general level, he is not very concerned with dips, just major retracements (>50%). My understanding is that he expects a >60% retracement once we reach 20k before we go to 100k
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November 20, 2017, 04:36:53 PM
 #5408

"We go for 20k on the corpses of bears."

Let's see if he will be right or not. Still some way to go.
When we reach $10k it will be very important to see how the markets reacts.
Big profit taking and correction or not??!!

Seems like he thinks more on a general level, he is not very concerned with dips, just major retracements (>50%). My understanding is that he expects a >60% retracement once we reach 20k before we go to 100k

I know his point of view.
But what I try to say is why shouldn't a 50%+ drop already happen at $10k?!!!
This is a huge milestone and a very big psychological number! 5 digits the first time for Bitcoin! That's huge. So beside his EW analysis I try to give the human factor some more attention here. This will be very interesting to watch and how the market is going to react if we reach that milestone.
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November 20, 2017, 04:40:30 PM
 #5409

I know his point of view.
But what I try to say is why shouldn't a 50%+ drop already happen at $10k?!!!
This is a huge milestone and a very big psychological number! 5 digits the first time for Bitcoin! That's huge. So beside his EW analysis I try to give the human factor some more attention here. This will be very interesting to watch and how the market is going to react if we reach that milestone.

Greed is also part of the human factor and you can be just as greedy as a would be seller. We can already see selling has largely gone on strike at the moment. If it managed to nudge five figures then all the people who vowed to get rid around then are likely to reconsider when it starts to look like a real thing. It was mythical for so long.

No doubt traders will play off it anyway. And didn't Mr. Luc predict a short term top of just over 9 grand? We may not get to five figures for a decent while.

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November 20, 2017, 07:20:42 PM
 #5410

Guys no one has a crystal ball. If you take a look at a log chart of Bitstamp there is a pitchfork that price has been obeying last half of this year that calls for a reversal at around $9K. Remember January is usually a down month. Take a look at the Andrews Pitchfork and draw your own conclusions:



masterluc has a good track record but I think he dismisses the threat of BCH too flippantly. There are upset Chinese miners who are almost certainly planning another attack on bitcoin before the end of this year. I told my friends early on to buy BCH under $500 to act as a hedge for bitcoin. I want bitcoin to flourish as much as anyone but I also see the threat. Miners could switch to mining BCH and blocks on bitcoin could slow to a crawl. People would panic trying to sell and would not be able to get their bitcoin to exchanges and all of a sudden we could have price parity between BTC and BCH. I hope not but have to factor into my trading. Sorry to hijack the thread this is my last post here. Good luck!

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November 20, 2017, 08:05:43 PM
 #5411



I know his point of view.
But what I try to say is why shouldn't a 50%+ drop already happen at $10k?!!!
This is a huge milestone and a very big psychological number! 5 digits the first time for Bitcoin! That's huge. So beside his EW analysis I try to give the human factor some more attention here. This will be very interesting to watch and how the market is going to react if we reach that milestone.

EW analysis is all about the human factor. That's all its about.
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November 21, 2017, 04:05:29 AM
Last edit: November 23, 2017, 05:11:02 PM by mymenace
 #5412

Guys no one has a crystal ball. If you take a look at a log chart of Bitstamp there is a pitchfork that price has been obeying last half of this year that calls for a reversal at around $9K. Remember January is usually a down month. Take a look at the Andrews Pitchfork and draw your own conclusions:



masterluc has a good track record but I think he dismisses the threat of BCH too flippantly. There are upset Chinese miners who are almost certainly planning another attack on bitcoin before the end of this year. I told my friends early on to buy BCH under $500 to act as a hedge for bitcoin. I want bitcoin to flourish as much as anyone but I also see the threat. Miners could switch to mining BCH and blocks on bitcoin could slow to a crawl. People would panic trying to sell and would not be able to get their bitcoin to exchanges and all of a sudden we could have price parity between BTC and BCH. I hope not but have to factor into my trading. Sorry to hijack the thread this is my last post here. Good luck!

thats not a statement/theory

that is inside knowledge

Grin
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November 24, 2017, 12:38:27 AM
 #5413

Guys no one has a crystal ball. If you take a look at a log chart of Bitstamp there is a pitchfork that price has been obeying last half of this year that calls for a reversal at around $9K. Remember January is usually a down month. Take a look at the Andrews Pitchfork and draw your own conclusions:



masterluc has a good track record but I think he dismisses the threat of BCH too flippantly. There are upset Chinese miners who are almost certainly planning another attack on bitcoin before the end of this year. I told my friends early on to buy BCH under $500 to act as a hedge for bitcoin. I want bitcoin to flourish as much as anyone but I also see the threat. Miners could switch to mining BCH and blocks on bitcoin could slow to a crawl. People would panic trying to sell and would not be able to get their bitcoin to exchanges and all of a sudden we could have price parity between BTC and BCH. I hope not but have to factor into my trading. Sorry to hijack the thread this is my last post here. Good luck!

thats not a statement/theory

that is inside knowledge


i agree with the OP assessment on this one. holding both btc and bch and seeing how this plays out...
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November 24, 2017, 01:57:10 AM
 #5414

Vanga made four posts today.  And the language is crazy.
I think just reading his stuff, even if I don't really understand it, puts me in a better frame of mind.

Anybody know what he said?
Not at all, who is vanga?
Millionero
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November 24, 2017, 02:20:29 AM
 #5415

Vanga made four posts today.  And the language is crazy.
I think just reading his stuff, even if I don't really understand it, puts me in a better frame of mind.

Anybody know what he said?
Not at all, who is vanga?
The one who started this thread, masterluc, is bitcoin vanga
https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
open the page with chrome/chromium browser and use the translation function in the url window, far right
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November 25, 2017, 11:37:26 AM
 #5416

it seems $10k is getting more and more close ,the next target is $15k.eneryone holding the bitcoin ,enjoy the ride.lol!!

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November 27, 2017, 09:18:40 AM
 #5417

Guys no one has a crystal ball. If you take a look at a log chart of Bitstamp there is a pitchfork that price has been obeying last half of this year that calls for a reversal at around $9K. Remember January is usually a down month. Take a look at the Andrews Pitchfork and draw your own conclusions:



masterluc has a good track record but I think he dismisses the threat of BCH too flippantly. There are upset Chinese miners who are almost certainly planning another attack on bitcoin before the end of this year. I told my friends early on to buy BCH under $500 to act as a hedge for bitcoin. I want bitcoin to flourish as much as anyone but I also see the threat. Miners could switch to mining BCH and blocks on bitcoin could slow to a crawl. People would panic trying to sell and would not be able to get their bitcoin to exchanges and all of a sudden we could have price parity between BTC and BCH. I hope not but have to factor into my trading. Sorry to hijack the thread this is my last post here. Good luck!

wonder how butthurt people are going to get having a mythical pitchfork rammed up their backside?

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November 27, 2017, 09:29:25 AM
 #5418

it seems $10k is getting more and more close ,the next target is $15k.eneryone holding the bitcoin ,enjoy the ride.lol!!

You could be correct.

$10k seems to be nearly a done deal, even though we are having a bit of resistance, for all intents and purposes, we are in the striking territory.

I am tentatively thinking that we will get a 15% to 25% blow off above $10k and then we will have a decent sized correction from there.

Accordingly, I am not sure how long it will take to get to $15k.  Perhaps we still would have decent chances for $15k during 2018 - but I have difficulties imagining $15k coming in the first half of the year - even though we also know anything is possible in bitcoinlandia.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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November 27, 2017, 12:54:34 PM
Last edit: November 27, 2017, 01:08:30 PM by Millionero
 #5419

In his latest post to his Bitcoin Vanga blog, masterluc says

This is my bearded forecast for 9k.

(I'm guessing bearded is Russian slang for old)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MrwPhbog-Lon ..

But somewhere half a year ago I realized that I would go further. He specified the forecast.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The ..

This is the chart



I definitely see correlation in wave structure between 2013th bubble and a current. This is update of "Long term Bitcoin 3.89% price extrapolation" posted 7 Oct 2016.

Many time past since then. And log scaled trends grew a lot.

You can see some historical trends here. The lowest defines "Normal growth" and price is currently inside it. The upper ones defines "mid and super grow". Once price enters them it will start dramatic growth due deflational Bitcoin 3.89% nature.

Correlations I see between 2013 and current bubbles marked by circles. So taking into account that correlations I announce dramatic price rise from approximately $40,000 USD in quick and pessimistic version to more than $100,000 USD and prolonged optimistic version.

Deadline for this action is till 2019.


(Google Translate)

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
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November 29, 2017, 03:45:52 AM
 #5420

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!

Very interesting comparison you draw there, but I have a few concerns. Packets, unlike blocks, do not have to wait 10 minutes between each transmission. Also, packets do not have to be broadcasted to the entire network, like blocks do. Because of these issues I don't think its as 1:1 of a comparison as you make it seem, although to be honest I'm not fully educated on the subject and want to learn more. It is interesting to envision a system where there are layers built on bitcoin to faciliate all the things we feel are impossible now to due to blocksize constraints.

Also thanks for updating us, I've been following your analysis for years now and you've always been on the money.
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