Analysis

[Bossian]

Usually the FOMO phase is during a big bullish run, that's not at all the current situation. Buying now is probably a smart move as a long term investment, I wouldn't call it a FOMO decision.

I agree.
However, how much time for a long term investment do you believe this is leading too?

I believe we are going straight to zero in less than a month, and then a vaccine will be released for coronavirus in six months (the vaccine already exists, btw). After that, the price will tank on sub-1000 levels for two years, because there will be few buyers left. It will take five years to arrive at 8k, and maybe six years to arrive at 10k.

I have buy orders in the three-digits area, and spare money left. I never go all-in because I'm not a "believer". In the two-digits area we will have the opportunity to buy dozens of coins.

Mempool already dropped to zero for a short time:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mempool-briefly-drops-to-zero-on-blockchaincom

I was about the post Masterluc's new prediction, thanks Mindtrust for doing so.

Coincidentally it also matches somehow sbgett prediction of a 2.5k price beginning of next year.

We will see. Regarding your post Fabio, it's hard to find the bottom, but I am "betting" on another bubble someday. That's what I am interested in convenient situation for me now as I sold 95% of my Bitcoin assets. Everything I write here is without any emotion (and that is important).

Now if Masterluc's prediction is correct, that absolutely sucks since 1.8k is a lower low compared to 3k (January 2019). The best is to sit and watch, and wait for a signal that this ugly trend started mi-December 2017 is finally over.

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

[fabiorem]

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

[gentlemand]

https://www.longhash.com/en/news/3287/How-High-Leverage-in-the-Crypto-Market-Crashed-Bitcoin-to-$3,800

More on Bitmex here. One geezer in that article is asking for industry wide circuit breakers. I wonder whether that would be popular or hated. It might ruin some peoples', namely Bitmex management, fun.

[exstasie]

The 200-week MA is at $5,500 and we are currently trading near $5,300. If we close here, it might be "close enough" assuming a recovery is still coming.

I think the same. I am still bearish but could be wrong (nobody is perfect), but I would wait to buy around 6.5k instead of 5.5k.

There is very established daily pivot resistance at $6K now. The market topped out twice there on notable volume this past week.

So buy stops > $6K make sense now. Once the market breaches it, shorts and trapped sellers should start getting squeezed pretty hard.

https://www.longhash.com/en/news/3287/How-High-Leverage-in-the-Crypto-Market-Crashed-Bitcoin-to-$3,800

More on Bitmex here. One geezer in that article is asking for industry wide circuit breakers. I wonder whether that would be popular or hated. It might ruin some peoples', namely Bitmex management, fun.

Butthurt bulls are just blaming Bitmex because they need someone to blame. Everybody is just assuming that because there are liquidations on Bitmex, the spot exchanges must endlessly follow. They won't. At extremes, Bitmex will just diverge from spot prices.

On spot exchanges, actual BTC is required to sell the market down. Algos driven by Bitmex price action will eventually just shut down in these situations for lack of sell liquidity. Plus Bitmex literally only allows withdrawals once per day, so shorters also can't deposit BTC profits onto spot exchanges on demand to keep dumping the market down.

The people crying that Bitmex can bring BTC to $0 are wrong. It's that simple.

[Majormax]

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle.

I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ?

Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this.

[Wind_FURY]

Masterluc used to work a lot using triangles, well there is this one since 2017, quite a scary one.

Technically I am aware Bitcoin price went below 5k this week but for a very short time, no consolidation between 3.8k and 5k observed (yet) so I consider we are still inside the triangle.

Wonder what Masterluc would make of this.

His emphasis appears to be on the weekly 200 SMA. Since he considered the 200 SMA tests in 2015 as holding, I can only assume the important thing is closing (the weekly candle) near or above it. Wicks should be fine. The price needs to close above $5,500 and preferably would create some distance above it.

Otherwise he predicts a "very bearish breakdown" which I would more or less agree with:

Well, if Masterluc is right, that's it folks. "Very bearish breakdown" probably means 3.5k at best. If we see 2.Xk again it probably means we could head to 1k too. Crazy to think, but 1k is the most important price in Bitcoin history, it was the top of the 2013 bubble, and overall Bitcoin price stayed below 1k for most of its history.
Not getting carried away of course but seeing 1k area is a possibility, and that would be a fantastic price to buy a lot of coins[/bw IMO.

I will think about maxing out both my credit cards, sell my car, sell everything, including my body to get the money to buy more Bitcoin if it crashes to $1,000.

Maybe not "everything, including my body". Hahaha.

[JayJuanGee]

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle.

I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ?

Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this.

I would bet on the currently persuasive BTC price prediction models** long before I would be considering bearish nonsense of ceilings of $10k and/or consolidation likelihood in the sub $3k arena.. those models have way the fuck more data behind them rather than the seemingly pure nonsensical extended bear-market thesis that you are propounding. 

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

**currently persuasive BTC price prediction models = 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on networking/metcalfe principles

[Majormax]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

[Majormax]

The reason I think there could be an extended period at low levels is because the nascent bull market was broken by the shape of the move from 13.5k down to where it is now.

That might need another crypto winter to repair. Might kill off a few alts for good, though.

[fabiorem]

My intuition is that we will need to wait for 2024 or further to see a new ATH (of course it's possible we never see such thing).

I dont believe we are going to see a new ATH.
When derivatives were applied to gold, the price tanked. But in the case of gold, there were breaks for shorting. Such breaks do not exist for bitcoin, so its quite possible the tanking will be even worse than what happened with gold. The maximum bitcoin will go will be $10k.

And when I said zero, it means something similar to what happened to the mempool, it will last for a very short time. People will say it was a "bug". But the two-digits and three-digits areas will be a reality. There will be much less buyers than we have today, specially if the virus mass panic continues for a long time.

10k is pretty much the ceiling. TA shows two failures at 10.5k, both spike exponential, both lower highs below the lower high of 13.5k. Couldn't be more bearish from a TA angle.

I'm not sure how the Zero price can come in. I would have said that 1.2k represents the largest support level. Are you talking about a technical exchange glitch ?

Another couple of years at 1-2k might be the outcome of all this.

Yes, I was talking about a glitch. Recently there was a glitch where the mempool hashrate dropped to zero. Could it happen to the price as well.

I believe 10k will be the ceiling for six years from now on. It will take a long time for a recovery, and the exchanges will need to put some mechanisms in place to avoid this kind of situation again. Bitcoin dropped faster and lower than any other market in the world. Unless there is action against paper speculation, bitcoin will be in a eternal bear market, and we will never again see a ATH.

The exchanges have two choices: freedom (bear market) or collusion (bull market). Unfortunately, the community is too slow to react, thanks to the brainwashing from the hodl cult, which waits for the coming of the "bull messiah". As always, religion proves to be a hindrance for a solution. That's why I believe it will take 4-6 years for 10k.

[JayJuanGee]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

Fair enough that you upgrade your views with the passage of time and the changing dynamics of the market... Surely is a good thing, and no need to get paralyzed by these matters.. by adapting your theories.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to me (and maybe a bit frustrating too) that you seem to largely discount currently persuasive BTC price prediction models...

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.   

[figmentofmyass]

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.  

i hope you turn out correct, but the way things are panning out, the coronavirus outbreak was the black swan none of us planned for.

the fed has now resorted to lending against stock and bond collateral. crazy stuff: https://www.ft.com/content/cf485398-689d-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

masterluc's new target is below $2k. xxxx123abcxxxx is aiming below $1k. i may not totally agree with their doom and gloom yet, but a year and a half below $10k sure doesn't seem that crazy.

[JayJuanGee]

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.  

i hope you turn out correct, but the way things are panning out, the coronavirus outbreak was the black swan none of us planned for.

the fed has now resorted to lending against stock and bond collateral. crazy stuff: https://www.ft.com/content/cf485398-689d-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

masterluc's new target is below $2k. xxxx123abcxxxx is aiming below $1k. i may not totally agree with their doom and gloom yet, but a year and a half below $10k sure doesn't seem that crazy.

Hey, I am not asserting that any of those more doomy and gloomy scenarios are completely out of line, but surely, current BTC price prediction models should be taken into account too... i.e. 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential growth based on networking/metcalfe principles.

I would be one of the first persons to argue about NOT getting too much caught upon TA and math to circumscribe human behavior limitations because we are not robots who are so damned rationale as to take out both free will, emotion and outrageousness - nonetheless, those preaching doom and gloom should be attempting to account for the BTC price dynamics that are attempted to be captured in the most persuasive BTC price prediction models of our time... either the models will a) become invalidated or b) they need to be tweaked in order to account for the new conditions. 

 b) would be much easier to accomplish than a) - yet my arguments against the doomers and gloomers is that their charts and arguments (to the extent any actual arguments exist) seem to be way the fuck less fleshed out than the various arguments and even underlying presumptions of the current above-referred to BTC prediction models.

Also, don't get me wrong regarding any kind of claim that I would be making regarding BTC being able to rise like a phoenix above the ashes.. because I doubt that bitcoin would be able to claim that level of non-correlation when shit is really going down.  So, maybe we do get into questions, too, regarding what level of "shit is really going down" are we into, and what level of incompetency do we presume that status quo interests are going to continue to fuck it up for themselves?

Of course, in our current "crisis" the various powers that be of financial institutions and governments are going to be pulling out all stops to engage in a variety of "creative" measures to attempt to preserve the existing system and their position within, and I really doubt that such level of Armageddon is imminent, yet maybe it is way too early to call, too... and maybe in 6 months or 1 year, I might appreciate those kinds of Armageddon claims more, if we do not experience a recovery,. at least somewhat more in bitcoin in that timeframe. 

I do believe that we are way too early to be calling the death of BTC, or such level of BTC correlation that we are going to just throw out current BTC price prediction models.. or the breakage of the current BTC price prediction models without at least some attempts to address those models within the outlining of the doom and gloom theoretical scenarios, and I have not seen any kind of convincing backing of the doom and gloom scenarios, so far.. but with the passage of more time, I might be willing to concede a bit more on these fronts if the data starts to back up the doomers and gloomers more.

[Wind_FURY]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

Fair enough that you upgrade your views with the passage of time and the changing dynamics of the market... Surely is a good thing, and no need to get paralyzed by these matters.. by adapting your theories.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to me (and maybe a bit frustrating too) that you seem to largely discount currently persuasive BTC price prediction models...

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.   

Don't worry about their "predictions". We should take their posts as mere "forum-friendly-debates".

Were people saying the same things when Bitcoin crashed to $200 the months after the ATH? It will never achieve a new ATH of $1,000 again? Where's the floor?

[JayJuanGee]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

Fair enough that you upgrade your views with the passage of time and the changing dynamics of the market... Surely is a good thing, and no need to get paralyzed by these matters.. by adapting your theories.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to me (and maybe a bit frustrating too) that you seem to largely discount currently persuasive BTC price prediction models...

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.   

Don't worry about their "predictions". We should take their posts as mere "forum-friendly-debates".

Were people saying the same things when Bitcoin crashed to $200 the months after the ATH? It will never achieve a new ATH of $1,000 again? Where's the floor?

That seems to be part of the reason for my ongoing skepticisms of these various conclusory assertions, and yeah we got all kinds of those bitcoin is dead, or ATH will never be reached again, and this time is different (meaning bitcoin is really broken), even though there was convincing contrary arguments and even this time, the price prediction models seem to be quite stronger even though we all should recognize that even our decently strong current BTC price prediction models are far from a guarantee. 

There are all kinds of examples of the bitcoin naysaying arguments, and specifically, I remember the strength of the arguments that we would never see $500 again were considerable in early 2016 when we had largely gotten stuck between $390-ish and $440-ish for more than 6 months... and of course, most of 2015 we were stuck well below $300, and were told, over and over that $300 would never be breached again.  We know what happened in both of those occasions, and including several similar situations, including the missing of buying opportunities for people who waited to buy BTC and disgruntlement from some of the people who sold all or most of their BTC during those periods, either locking in their earlier gains at relatively low prices or expecting to be able to buy back BTC lower at a later date.

[Wind_FURY]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

Fair enough that you upgrade your views with the passage of time and the changing dynamics of the market... Surely is a good thing, and no need to get paralyzed by these matters.. by adapting your theories.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to me (and maybe a bit frustrating too) that you seem to largely discount currently persuasive BTC price prediction models...

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.  

Don't worry about their "predictions". We should take their posts as mere "forum-friendly-debates".

Were people saying the same things when Bitcoin crashed to $200 the months after the ATH? It will never achieve a new ATH of $1,000 again? Where's the floor?

That seems to be part of the reason for my ongoing skepticisms of these various conclusory assertions, and yeah we got all kinds of those bitcoin is dead, or ATH will never be reached again, and this time is different (meaning bitcoin is really broken), even though there was convincing contrary arguments and even this time, the price prediction models seem to be quite stronger even though we all should recognize that even our decently strong current BTC price prediction models are far from a guarantee.  

There are all kinds of examples of the bitcoin naysaying arguments, and specifically, I remember the strength of the arguments that we would never see $500 again were considerable in early 2016 when we had largely gotten stuck between $390-ish and $440-ish for more than 6 months... and of course, most of 2015 we were stuck well below $300, and were told, over and over that $300 would never be breached again.  We know what happened in both of those occasions, and including several similar situations, including the missing of buying opportunities for people who waited to buy BTC and disgruntlement from some of the people who sold all or most of their BTC during those periods, either locking in their earlier gains at relatively low prices or expecting to be able to buy back BTC lower at a later date.

BUT, in fairness to them, it's what they should be saying to give us more time to buy the dip, and HODL. I also do it to my non-Bitcoiner friends. Hahaha.

fabiorem, and Majormax are doing it to the wrong people.

[Majormax]

I believe 10k will be the ceiling for six years from now on. It will take a long time for a recovery, and the exchanges will need to put some mechanisms in place to avoid this kind of situation again. Bitcoin dropped faster and lower than any other market in the world. Unless there is action against paper speculation, bitcoin will be in a eternal bear market, and we will never again see a ATH.

The exchanges have two choices: freedom (bear market) or collusion (bull market). Unfortunately, the community is too slow to react, thanks to the brainwashing from the hodl cult, which waits for the coming of the "bull messiah". As always, religion proves to be a hindrance for a solution. That's why I believe it will take 4-6 years for 10k.

Not happy to say so, but I tend to agree. Not because BTC is definitely broken, but because there is a fair probability the world is in a strong deflation, despite govt interventions.

( the next bit copied from my post on WO thread)

I am sure everyone will jump in here to tell me deflation is 'impossible'.  Well, I have heard that from many speculators for the last 30 years, and during that time deflationary trends have gotten steadily stronger.

The deflation can happen by a generalised default. If companies and individuals are already too indebted to take on any more loans on any terms, they will simply go bust. It will not matter how much 'money' is lent to the banking system, or how much 'money' wealthy ppl and businesses have. The only way this can be forestalled is by the money-printers (govt, banks and wealthy creditors) giving it gratis , including large scale debt relief/forgiveness. The mechanism for debt forgiveness is fraught with arguments about unfairness, and therefore very hard to implement.

[Wekkel]

I agree that the time frame may have shifted considerably. But I doubt 4-6 yrs is the play book because of deflation. If we have 4-6 years of deflation, Bitcoin will be the least of our worries. If the money printing trick cannot get this show on the road again into something resembling a ‘recovery’ or at least a muddle through scenario, we are f* big time.

With our current ‘elastic’ money system, I don’t see a long and prolonged deflation in the cards. Stock markets tanking is one thing, seeing while industries collapse over the years because not interfering with money printing is another.

Yes, there will be pain. No, there will be no long cleansing deflation undoing all the damage caused by blowing debt bubbles.

They will try more of the same. And then some more. And more.

These measures will not be taken 4-6 years form now. It will be sooner. And they can be expected to blow wind in Bitcoin’s sails. $10k isn’t that far away if this train starts to move again.

[fabiorem]

I believe 10k will be the ceiling for six years from now on. It will take a long time for a recovery, and the exchanges will need to put some mechanisms in place to avoid this kind of situation again. Bitcoin dropped faster and lower than any other market in the world. Unless there is action against paper speculation, bitcoin will be in a eternal bear market, and we will never again see a ATH.

The exchanges have two choices: freedom (bear market) or collusion (bull market). Unfortunately, the community is too slow to react, thanks to the brainwashing from the hodl cult, which waits for the coming of the "bull messiah". As always, religion proves to be a hindrance for a solution. That's why I believe it will take 4-6 years for 10k.

Not happy to say so, but I tend to agree. Not because BTC is definitely broken, but because there is a fair probability the world is in a strong deflation, despite govt interventions.

( the next bit copied from my post on WO thread)

I am sure everyone will jump in here to tell me deflation is 'impossible'.  Well, I have heard that from many speculators for the last 30 years, and during that time deflationary trends have gotten steadily stronger.

The deflation can happen by a generalised default. If companies and individuals are already too indebted to take on any more loans on any terms, they will simply go bust. It will not matter how much 'money' is lent to the banking system, or how much 'money' wealthy ppl and businesses have. The only way this can be forestalled is by the money-printers (govt, banks and wealthy creditors) giving it gratis , including large scale debt relief/forgiveness. The mechanism for debt forgiveness is fraught with arguments about unfairness, and therefore very hard to implement.

Well, I didnt said that bitcoin is broken, only that it failed its purpose. The market, however, is broken, as it is tainted by paper speculation, and the brainwashing of the hodler cult will let things as it is, confirming the eternal bear trend.

Deflation is a possibility, because services, businesses, etc, were all cut down. This will lead to prices of products tanking, with the exception of food. Prices of food will increase as farms will also be shut down, and this will hold deflation for some time.

The debts, however, might result in a default, as you said. This will cause the dollar collapse, which could prompt governments to adopt bitcoin. But since bitcoin is following the fiat market, its more likely they will suck its resources first, leaving it in a bear market for many years, postponing this default. That is why I put a long period before we see 10k again.

ATH will be dependent on governments turning in to bitcoin. However, they could create their own cryptocurrency, as they have been studying blockchain for many years. This is the most likely scenario, as they will have full control of this new cryptocurrency, and people will adopt it out of desperation (there will be no food, no services, etc).

This recent market crash was all about centralization of finance in the hands of a few speculators, who bought the bonds from key companies. So its likely they will release a centralized cryptocurrency. Then, they kill the dollar, default all the debt, and bitcoin will be a relic from the past, destroyed by constant liquidations. I believe they will also release two or three new pandemics during this time, to bring more panic.

[figmentofmyass]

Also, don't get me wrong regarding any kind of claim that I would be making regarding BTC being able to rise like a phoenix above the ashes.. because I doubt that bitcoin would be able to claim that level of non-correlation when shit is really going down.  So, maybe we do get into questions, too, regarding what level of "shit is really going down" are we into, and what level of incompetency do we presume that status quo interests are going to continue to fuck it up for themselves?

that's what it comes down to. the way i see it, this pandemic-induced downturn is a black swan either way. will it destroy everything in its path like the 2008 crisis? i dunno. it may just be an epic shakeout that delays the bull market by a year or so. we really have no idea. all we can do is guess.

there are plenty of "experts" anticipating doomsday, while others think we are near the peak of supply chain shock and market panic. your guess is as good as mine!

I do believe that we are way too early to be calling the death of BTC, or such level of BTC correlation that we are going to just throw out current BTC price prediction models..

if this crash represents another 1929 (like great depression level shit) that's the kind of black swan that IMO could easily break the existing prediction models. i'm not throwing them out yet, i'm just open to that kind of possibility.